One would have to believe that she would need one first
The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV
- Thread starter Axver
- Start date
The friendliest place on the web for anyone that follows U2.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
- Status
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Last edited:
bono_212
Blue Crack Distributor
BigMacPhisto
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2002
- Messages
- 6,351
Eh. On the one hand the FBI and right are overtly politicized about the issue. On the other hand, the Clintonistas would literally need her to be declared guilty in a courtroom before they'd even consider her capable of any wrongdoing. Until then, it's just a partisan smear.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I've taken a break for a bit, but just read through quite a bit and noticing a lot of "the polls show it neck and neck now" talk.
while polling has gotten tighter, there are several things to keep in mind:
1. Early voting was happening in many swing states when the polls were heavily toward Clinton.
2. NC is still in Clinton's camp, except for one outlying poll. And her early voting numbers are looking good for her there. There really is only one path for Trump to win without NC, and it would mean winning PA and FL. Not likely.
3. John Ralston, the king of NV polling has pretty much said that, Trump would need to win election day voting by incredible margins to make up the strength that Clinton already has in early voting.
4. Iowa is actually looking winnable by Clinton. I had written it off, but it looks like it could be much closer than I had thought previously.
5. Clinton is still hitting AZ pretty hard, which means their internal numbers must be telling them that AZ is looking better than the national media polls.
6. Everyone that I've heard on the ground in FL, seems to feel quite good about Clinton's position there.
7. Ground operations. Clinton has them, Trump does not. So whatever the polls say, it could be shifted quite a bit by the ground-game and who actually gets to the polls to vote.
8. and most important and intriguing... The media cling to any outlying poll to spin it into a 50/50 horse race, so they get their ratings. I can live with that. But the most interesting piece of data that came out this week (and was mentioned a few dozen posts back) was the info gathered by TargetSmart. Actual phone conversations with people who have already voted in Florida, and 28% of registered republicans going for Clinton.
That has the potential to make for an absolutely stunning election night.
I don't expect that the percentage would extrapolate over all states. I don't think it would be near that high in "redder" states. But imagine it being even half that across the entire electorate. You could see AZ, GA, MO, OH, UT, IA, AK, etc... being swept into Clinton's column.
Now I've got to go, Melania is speaking.
painful stuff.
while polling has gotten tighter, there are several things to keep in mind:
1. Early voting was happening in many swing states when the polls were heavily toward Clinton.
2. NC is still in Clinton's camp, except for one outlying poll. And her early voting numbers are looking good for her there. There really is only one path for Trump to win without NC, and it would mean winning PA and FL. Not likely.
3. John Ralston, the king of NV polling has pretty much said that, Trump would need to win election day voting by incredible margins to make up the strength that Clinton already has in early voting.
4. Iowa is actually looking winnable by Clinton. I had written it off, but it looks like it could be much closer than I had thought previously.
5. Clinton is still hitting AZ pretty hard, which means their internal numbers must be telling them that AZ is looking better than the national media polls.
6. Everyone that I've heard on the ground in FL, seems to feel quite good about Clinton's position there.
7. Ground operations. Clinton has them, Trump does not. So whatever the polls say, it could be shifted quite a bit by the ground-game and who actually gets to the polls to vote.
8. and most important and intriguing... The media cling to any outlying poll to spin it into a 50/50 horse race, so they get their ratings. I can live with that. But the most interesting piece of data that came out this week (and was mentioned a few dozen posts back) was the info gathered by TargetSmart. Actual phone conversations with people who have already voted in Florida, and 28% of registered republicans going for Clinton.
That has the potential to make for an absolutely stunning election night.
I don't expect that the percentage would extrapolate over all states. I don't think it would be near that high in "redder" states. But imagine it being even half that across the entire electorate. You could see AZ, GA, MO, OH, UT, IA, AK, etc... being swept into Clinton's column.
Now I've got to go, Melania is speaking.
painful stuff.
I'd need an actual indictment to believe that she'll be indicted.
Cause they've been talking about one for months, years even... yet here we are.
BigMacPhisto
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2002
- Messages
- 6,351
In response to womanfish:
1. Sure. But they're asking registered and likely voters in the polls who they support which includes those that already vote. Early voting has historically been slanted towards Democrats, so there isn't much new there although I will agree with you that Trump was in a terrible position once it began. However, most of the people that vote early are hyper-partisan and therefore had already made up their minds months earlier. FiveThirtyEight recently found that 80% of voters fall along those lines.
2. Completely untrue regarding NC when you take into account the fundamentals of the state (with 538 having it in Trump's favor most of the time lately) and the fact that Clinton only lead by 2 points in the most recent polling where she's ahead.
3. Perhaps.
4. No way in hell does she have a prayer in Iowa. Polls will tell you otherwise and they've spent no time or money there.
5. Hubris on her part and she'll regret it if Colorado or New Hampshire or someplace else ends up swinging the other way. Arizona is not going to happen and has fallen back in line as a comfortable red state. Polls within campaigns are always heavily slanted and unreliable, so they can waste their own time and money if they please.
6. Absolutely meaningless. So a handful of people that you know (and likely share your beliefs) somehow can tell you the result for tens of millions of Floridian voters? Come on.
7. Black turnout has already fallen way off from this point in 2012 although they could turn things around. I think the ground game is important and more so than needless television ads (something Trump has wisely avoided spending money on throughout for the most part), but I doubt it's going to make as big a difference as you'd expect.
8. There is no way in hell that number is correct. It's just some weird anomaly. If that were the case, the rest of the polls would show Trump losing Florida by a very wide margin already. People really try to act like Florida is some cosmopolitan area with a lot of different races interacting and a sizable Hispanic population, etc. but the reality is that half the state is made up of the same angry white rednecks that hold a majority in the rest of the South and do next to no interacting with the rest of the populace. While I agree that the demographics are rapidly shifting in favor of the Democrats, Republicans can still easily win big in Florida whenever turnout is down (Governor, Rubio or even President this year).
1. Sure. But they're asking registered and likely voters in the polls who they support which includes those that already vote. Early voting has historically been slanted towards Democrats, so there isn't much new there although I will agree with you that Trump was in a terrible position once it began. However, most of the people that vote early are hyper-partisan and therefore had already made up their minds months earlier. FiveThirtyEight recently found that 80% of voters fall along those lines.
2. Completely untrue regarding NC when you take into account the fundamentals of the state (with 538 having it in Trump's favor most of the time lately) and the fact that Clinton only lead by 2 points in the most recent polling where she's ahead.
3. Perhaps.
4. No way in hell does she have a prayer in Iowa. Polls will tell you otherwise and they've spent no time or money there.
5. Hubris on her part and she'll regret it if Colorado or New Hampshire or someplace else ends up swinging the other way. Arizona is not going to happen and has fallen back in line as a comfortable red state. Polls within campaigns are always heavily slanted and unreliable, so they can waste their own time and money if they please.
6. Absolutely meaningless. So a handful of people that you know (and likely share your beliefs) somehow can tell you the result for tens of millions of Floridian voters? Come on.
7. Black turnout has already fallen way off from this point in 2012 although they could turn things around. I think the ground game is important and more so than needless television ads (something Trump has wisely avoided spending money on throughout for the most part), but I doubt it's going to make as big a difference as you'd expect.
8. There is no way in hell that number is correct. It's just some weird anomaly. If that were the case, the rest of the polls would show Trump losing Florida by a very wide margin already. People really try to act like Florida is some cosmopolitan area with a lot of different races interacting and a sizable Hispanic population, etc. but the reality is that half the state is made up of the same angry white rednecks that hold a majority in the rest of the South and do next to no interacting with the rest of the populace. While I agree that the demographics are rapidly shifting in favor of the Democrats, Republicans can still easily win big in Florida whenever turnout is down (Governor, Rubio or even President this year).
Last edited:
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
you'd almost be fooled into thinking that something called "due process" is the entire basis of the legal system in america.
BigMacPhisto
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2002
- Messages
- 6,351
Agreed. It's always been conjecture and probably still is. I doubt it will happen.
Where do you stand on the issue of pay-for-play with the Clinton Fund? Do you think it's likely or unlikely that it happened?
BigMacPhisto
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2002
- Messages
- 6,351
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
LMAO!!!! Melania just said that 50% of women live in poverty and 60% of women have no healthcare. The illegal immigrant apple doesn't fall far from the illegal immigrant hating tree...
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
did you seriously just compare hillary clinton with oj simpson?
BigMacPhisto
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2002
- Messages
- 6,351
Not at all. I'm just saying that being declared not guilty doesn't necessarily make you innocent (although it does in my eyes as far as the law is concerned and should be respected).
Even if Hillary Clinton were guilty of pay for play schemes or whatever, she's still going to have the best attorneys in the entire world on her defense team and would likely be acquitted.
Even if Hillary Clinton were guilty of pay for play schemes or whatever, she's still going to have the best attorneys in the entire world on her defense team and would likely be acquitted.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Or, you don't know how to write. That's clearly not what was detailed in your post. Nice try.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
In response to womanfish:
6. Absolutely meaningless. So a handful of people that you know (and likely share your beliefs) somehow can tell you the result for tens of millions of Floridian voters? Come on.
I'm not talking about my buddies I'm talking with at work. I'm talking about professionals in politics, in campaigns, pollsters, on the ground working with the actual numbers, etc...
I live in FL. I actually think it is probably the best chance for Trump between NC, PA, NV and NH. But I've heard lots of positive feedback about FL for Clinton from those i listed above.
Last edited:
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Obama was up just over a point in the polls in 2012. But his strong ground game ended up with him winning by 3.5% So ground game matters.
Latino turnout is up at record levels as well, and they are notoriously under represented in polling. So we shall see.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Yeah, Florida isn't the same as the rest of the south at all. It's one of the largest states with a diverse representation of voting demographics. Inclusive of said rednecks, and a "cosmopolitan" population.
If you think otherwise, you're ignorant, but that's something we already knew.
If you think otherwise, you're ignorant, but that's something we already knew.
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
Florida is extremely close right now. Currently, there is a larger percentage of outstanding mail ballots from Democrats than Republicans, whereas Republicans currently hold a +0.22% advantage in returned ballots. But a higher percentage of Democrats are keeping within the party line than are Republicans, so I like Hillary's chances at this point.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
I've wondered about that. If Obama pardons Clinton for her handling of classified documents while leaving Snowden to freeze in Russia, I'm going to find that pretty unforgivable.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
obama is far too politically astute to just blanket-pardon hillary nixon-style sometime in the next two months. not gonna happen.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I mailed in my vote. They make that shit so technical... they want any reason for a vote by mail not to count.
Your ballot has no instructions for how they want it printed. Double sided or single? 8.5"x11", or what happens if I print it on European A4? Can I fold my ballot into the envelope? Then, they want you to put the ballot in an unmarked envelope by itself, sealed, and then sign an absentee form separate from your ballot and enclose it with the unmarked ballot inside another envelope. If literally any of these things are incorrect, or if you signed your absentee form mildly incorrectly, they invalidate your vote and don't have to notify you.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
voter suppression is real.
i had to wait 2 hours to vote in 2012 in a very blue city in a purple state with a red governor. somehow, the spacious conference room with, like, a dozen voting machines where i normally voted was somehow under construction and the voting machines were reduced to maybe 4 and crammed into rooms in the basement.
Last edited:
Agreed. Additionally, I suspect Obama and the Clintons don't have a rosy enough relationship for him to stick his political neck out like that for her. He cares about his legacy too much to tarnish it for HRC, I think.
Again, something they've been pursuing for months without any movement.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
because there is no movement, if we talk about the investigation, maybe send a letter to Congress, people will think there is movement.
bono_212
Blue Crack Distributor
Not to mention she needs something to be pardoned for first.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Looks like one path for Donald (Wisconsin) ain't gonna happen
Early vote excels in Democratic counties
Early vote excels in Democratic counties
The fact that the vote isn't 349,999,993 to 7 shows there's something seriously off with this country. (I accounted for the Trump Family voting for him...I honestly don't know how many are in his family, but can imagine even some of his relatives don't like him)
This shouldn't have been a choice. They are not equal. I think Donald is right about the game being rigged, and he showed how to play it. No policy, no tact, no brains and you can make it to within striking distance of the most powerful office in the world.
This shouldn't have been a choice. They are not equal. I think Donald is right about the game being rigged, and he showed how to play it. No policy, no tact, no brains and you can make it to within striking distance of the most powerful office in the world.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I have an idea. Let's have a little fun and do our predictions for November 8th. I think the most interesting would be to list out the swing/possible swing states and say who you think will end up winning it. Not sure if this should be a new thread or not, but if someone wants to do that, please do.
As of now I think states that could possibly fall into swing status are:
NV
AZ
UT
CO
IA
WI
MI
OH
PA
NH
NC
GA
FL
AK
Thats a LOT
My predictions are:
NV - C
AZ - C
UT - T
CO - C
IA - T
WI - C
MI - C
OH - T
PA - C
NH - C
NC - C
GA - T
FL - C
AK - T
My prediction: Clinton wins 334 to 204
you can use this map to tally your numbers
2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map
have fun
As of now I think states that could possibly fall into swing status are:
NV
AZ
UT
CO
IA
WI
MI
OH
PA
NH
NC
GA
FL
AK
Thats a LOT
My predictions are:
NV - C
AZ - C
UT - T
CO - C
IA - T
WI - C
MI - C
OH - T
PA - C
NH - C
NC - C
GA - T
FL - C
AK - T
My prediction: Clinton wins 334 to 204
you can use this map to tally your numbers
2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map
have fun
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
