The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[gump]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

I actually think they'll double down.

The problem is that nobody even knows who "they" are as a party at this point. Ryan may lose the Speakership in January (especially if Trump ends up blaming him for a narrow loss). The Freedom Caucus will expand while the Republican House majority will decrease by 10-15 seats. So the GOP is more divided than ever, and I don't think they are able to articulate a rational direction as a party.

I still think the long-term implication is of a splintered GOP between a nationalist party and a more traditional, European-style conservative party that appeals a lot to southern Democrats as well. This sort of violates Duverger's law, but this seems to be a trend elsewhere in the world.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by gump

The problem is that nobody even knows who "they" are as a party at this point. Ryan may lose the Speakership in January (especially if Trump ends up blaming him for a narrow loss). The Freedom Caucus will expand while the Republican House majority will decrease by 10-15 seats. So the GOP is more divided than ever, and I don't think they are able to articulate a rational direction as a party.

I still think the long-term implication is of a splintered GOP between a nationalist party and a more traditional, European-style conservative party that appeals a lot to southern Democrats as well. This sort of violates Duverger's law, but this seems to be a trend elsewhere in the world.

I think there will be a big push towards a candidate who can run on the same ideals but not be such a looney with so much baggae, especially if it's somewhat close in a lot of battle ground states.

That's the key... if the battlegeound / tipping point states are close, but Clinton wins most of them on her way to a percieved blowout in the EC, then I think we see more of the same, only with a more sane candidate.

The douchebags who've stuck with him the entire time did so cause they are happy with the message, if not the candidate. I think they'll see a race where they lost, but could have won if some states tipped the opposite way as a sign that this is the way of the future. Especially if they do okay down ballot.

If it's a complete blow out, races expected to be close aren't, and even some states they thought were in the bag flip, then I think you'll see your GOP civil war.

[LuckyNumber7]

I'm expecting a GOP civil war due to a blowout. With Kasich salivating at 2020.

[bono_212]

Cool: http://m.xkcd.com/1756/

Originally Posted by BoMac

I think Ted Cruz will be just fine. He owns the Chicago Cubs after all.















Wait...that's not Ted Cruz?!

Oh my god, when he stepped up to the mic Friday, I was like, gtfo, Cruz. I honestly didn't know what Ricketts looked like until that moment.

[DaveC]

*****ALERT*****
LANDSLIDE WARNING
In effect for all 50 states and the District of Columbia

Beginning at 12:01 am EST in northern New Hampshire, and lasting for approximately the following 30 hours, massive floods of Clinton votes and double digit victory margins are expected. Totals will exceed 300, and may surpass 350 electoral votes by the time this alert expires.

Be warned that there may be localized instances of severe butthurt, with these occurrences particularly extreme near klan rallies, dank basements under mom's house, dungeons and dragons games, chapters of NAMBLA, "men's rights" assemblies, and sex offender registries. Be advised that acute shortages of cheetos, red bull, and mountain dew code red are expected in these areas.

Effects should be minimal along the coasts and in the Midwest. Sane persons residing in the South, or states between Colorado and the Mississippi River are advised to seek alternate shelter.

*****END OF ALERT*****

be aware, friends.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by DaveC

be aware, friends.

Being from Florida, I love the prowess of Mother Nature.

Be safe, all.

[gump]

pukes

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by BoMac

I think Ted Cruz will be just fine. He owns the Chicago Cubs after all.















Wait...that's not Ted Cruz?!

[gump]

So this is why there was absolutely no moral imperative to donate to the NC GOP earlier in the year after that attack on their headquarters:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckrak...-black-turnout

After lobbying local elections officials to limit the early voting opportunities that are popular among African Americans, North Carolina's Republican Party bragged Sunday about this year's decrease in black early voting turnout.

A state GOP press release on the state's early voting numbers highlighted that African American early voting turnout was down by 8.5 percent from 2012.

And

In the 2012 election, North Carolina was covered by what's known as "pre-clearance," referring to a provision in the Voting Rights Act requiring that certain states get federal approval for changes to their elections laws. The Supreme Court gutted that provision in its 2013 Shelby County v. Holder decision, and North Carolina's GOP legislature rushed to pass a voting bill that included cutbacks to the state's early voting. That and four other restrictive provisions in the law were struck down by an appeals court that said they were passed with the intent to discriminate against minorities.

...

North Carolina itself, in its defense of the law, said it sought to cut Sunday voting because it was offered in counties that were disproportionately black and thus, disproportionately Democratic.

[LuckyNumber7]

If you recall, I don't think anyone was ever saying you had a moral imperative. Not to reignite that, but I think the opposing side to this mostly was just okay with reaching across the isle as a show of solidarity against violent acts. I certainly won't be donating to them. I just don't think it's an inherently negative thing if someone does.

[gump]

Not addressing that at anyone in particular, and not trying to re-litigate it, but there's something to be said about donating money to an organization that is doing significant harm to a bunch of people (i.e. curtailing their right to vote).

[Irvine511]

the LA Times thinks AZ will go blue.

The race to 270 - Los Angeles Times

[trojanchick99]

Looks like Donald is getting his wall, a wall of Latino voters!

[gump]

Trump has stopped using an internal tracking poll two weeks ago.

What a bunch of clowns.

[trojanchick99]

Oh and in other good Arizona news, that pendejo Joe Arpaio is losing badly in his re-election campaign.

https://thinkprogress.org/the-downfa...1e5#.4b7weqd7x

[corianderstem]

I think I saw Stephen Colbert is doing some sort of live coverage tomorrow night on Showtime (or some other premium network). I'll watch that coverage so I can have some laughs along with my anxiety.

[gump]

I miss Jon Stewart in times like these.

[Moonlit_Angel]

Me, too .

Originally Posted by corianderstem

I think I saw Stephen Colbert is doing some sort of live coverage tomorrow night on Showtime (or some other premium network). I'll watch that coverage so I can have some laughs along with my anxiety.

Agh, I so wish we had Showtime. I want to watch that. Wonder if it'll be online?

[corianderstem]

I'm happy to have a new DirecTV account with three free months of premium channels, so I can watch it!

[gump]

Trump is so insane that even Glenn Beck thinks he's unhinged. Glenn Beck!

Glenn Beck Tries Out Decency - The New Yorker

That was the old Beck, he insists: “I did a lot of freaking out about Barack Obama.” But, he said, “Obama made me a better man.” He regrets calling the President a racist and counts himself a Black Lives Matter supporter. “There are things unique to the African-American experience that I cannot relate to,” he said. “I had to listen to them.”

Beck’s interactions with Donald Trump helped, too. He told a story of Trump summoning him to a guest room at Mar-a-Lago; Trump then telephoned him from an adjacent room. “We had this weird, almost Howard Hughes-like conversation,” Beck said. He left convinced that Trump was nuts. “This guy is dangerously unhinged,” he said. “And, for all the things people have said about me over the years, I should be able to spot Dangerously Unhinged.”