The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by BVS

Well I think he deserves more than that.



I think his "ideology" is ultimate power, I think he wants power. The disenfranchised right were the easiest prey and path to get there.



I think the desire to label it something is that whatever you want to call it, it's dangerous. To just say "he's an asshole" I think diminishes how dangerous he could be.

"Ultimate power" is such a strange way to put it. What at all suggests he's anything more than an egomaniac? He doesn't want power. He wants the mere title of "powerful." He wants people to know how awesome and mighty he is. He doesn't actually give a shit about being president. I don't know about you, but I fully 100% believe the reports that Trump's VP vetting offered the options to opportunity to be "the most powerful VP in US history." He doesn't want to rule so much as he wants to be the ruler.

I never diminished how dangerous of a candidate he is. That's in your interpretation of what I said. Go back a few posts, I definitely said [in response to a Hewson post] that the fact that he wouldn't follow up with his dangerous threats doesn't mean he's not potentially catastrophic.

But I think it's particularly dangerous to misidentify what he is. Because it legitimizes the claim. If you call him a fascist, you're legitimizing him as a fascist. If you fight the wall, the wall becomes a serious discussion. But it was never serious before.

[Hewson]

Trump's presidential aspirations amount to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g-WTpdsqGg

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by BVS

To just say "he's an asshole" I think diminishes how dangerous he could be.

just like saying "he's a fascist" diminishes how dangerous fascists could be.

that came nicely full-circle.

[U2DMfan]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

As we have seen in many elections the Electoral College can cut both ways. I still like it because it causes our politicians to focus on the entire country.

IMO, that's a truly bizarre view of things. The exact opposite is true. If you are in a solidly Red or Blue state, as 2/3's of us are - you get almost no attention from the other side. If the EC was thrown out and every vote actually mattered, then you'd truly see politicians focus on the entire country. If you're 50 years old and a loyal Democrat and you live in - just say, Kansas - your vote for President has quite literally never mattered. That's 100% bullshit no matter how you slice it. Tell that Kansan how politicians focus on the entire country in the present system.

Many people don't vote for President because their votes simply do not matter. How many millions could this represent? Hell, if it was only 1 million it would be hugely significant. The way things are now with the EC it is not truly representative. We'd have a higher turnout if every vote actually did matter.

To me the EC is a relic of an ideal to have representatives of the elite actually choosing the President under the facade of true democracy. And by representatives, I'm talking elitist rich white men. Certainly not women, the not-quite-humans (dark-skinned people) or unwashed pig farmers. That's the system we are still under, though it's supposed usefulness keeps getting retro-fitted. It is what it is.

To me Republicans oppose it because they know they would never win another election if you could turn out the major metropolitan areas. And Democrats oppose it because they have the largest states already in their pocket. One more example of how the powerful game the system towards A or B as the only options on the tale. And it's never been a less appetizing choice.

I do appreciate the idea of how the EC was designed to not allow for the tyranny of the majority but I don't really see how the EC abates that anymore. The Electors in the EC aren't as powerful as they used to be. So it's not even really working like it was designed. I'm not an expert on it. I just believe in true democracy. We can pick any President we want as long as they are 35 years old and born in the U.S. Whether that is John Kasich, Elizabeth Warren, Joe The Plumber or Kanye West.

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by anitram

I always think back to Rob Ford winning in Toronto and all the teeth gnashing that followed. If you were able to distance yourself and see reality for what it is, it was fairly predictable. Just because many Torontonians who are politically minded and outspoken live in the "elite" downtown core doesn't mean that they are not surrounded by people who think a completely different way and experience life completely differently. Rob Ford was most certainly stupid and ill-suited as a mayoral candidate anywhere outside a rural town of 10,000 people where he probably would have done a decent job. But that doesn't also mean that our City Council is not 100% useless and disliked (much like the Congress), that the Toronto suburbs have been left behind in terms of infrastructure development and made reliant on the car precisely by the people downtown who see no use of it all the while missing the irony of their privileged position, that government services are largely ineffectual and unmodernized all the while property taxes have gone up. I mean the gravy train was a cutesy slogan but not actually untrue.

So yeah, in that sense I have always said that people laughed at Rob Ford, and laugh at Trump at their own peril.

I still say Hillary takes this and it won't be a landslide but it also won't be the squeaker so many are predicting.

i'm not sure a violently abusive crackhead like ol' robbie could have done a decent job no matter how small the town. but i agree with you on your last point. i predicted 311-227 yesterday, and the more i think on that the more comfortable i am with that call. 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map although i freely admit you could go take a look at the football pick em thread in put 'em under pressure, and immediately lose all confidence in my prediction abilities.

show us your map if you have some time this weekend, i'm interested to know how people think it will actually play out in the end.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

"Ultimate power" is such a strange way to put it. What at all suggests he's anything more than an egomaniac? He doesn't want power. He wants the mere title of "powerful." He wants people to know how awesome and mighty he is. He doesn't actually give a shit about being president. I don't know about you, but I fully 100% believe the reports that Trump's VP vetting offered the options to opportunity to be "the most powerful VP in US history." He doesn't want to rule so much as he wants to be the ruler.

I don't think he wants to govern, but I do think he want to rule, I think he wants to punish.

[Zoomerang96]

Originally Posted by DaveC

right, the biggest swing in american political history is going to happen in less than two weeks in favour of donald fucking trump over some emails.

jeeeezus we need a 500x500 size of that eye rolling smiley like never before for this thread this week.

christ on a bike, what provoked that sort of reaction?

i just saw this now, but after seeing the most recent polls are you sure that your enormous, petulant eye roll is as on point as you initially thought?

the very fact that trump is in the margin of error, if not in the overall lead should tell you all you need to know.

... honestly, do you follow the polls at all? or are you somehow suggesting that by my initial comment i'm a trump supporter?

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by Zoomerang96

i just saw this now, but after seeing the most recent polls are you sure that your enormous, petulant eye roll is as on point as you initially thought?

yep. absolutely.

the very fact that trump is in the margin of error, if not in the overall lead should tell you all you need to know.

it tells me that you don't understand how the electoral college works.

[U2democrat]

Many people voted for Brexit, not thinking it would actually win. I suspect this could be the case for Trump as well.

That said, the Electoral College map favours Clinton. I think she wins NC and VA, and that will seal it for her.

Also don't underestimate those of us voting from overseas

[Zoomerang96]

Originally Posted by DaveC

yep. absolutely.



it tells me that you don't understand how the electoral college works.

then by all means, you should make an absolute fortune on the result. i assume you've bet your life savings?

i know full well how the electoral college works you condescending donut. since the FBI revelations of a week ago, clinton has slid down substantially from her perch of being clear front runner. is she most likely to win? absolutely, but there's a very real chance she could lose. and no, i'm not talking about popular vote, i'm talking about battleground states that are very much toss-ups, and even democrate leaning states such as colorado, new hampshire and even pennsylvania that are no longer safe bets. take a look at this if you don't believe me:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

... just why the hell are you picking on this statement anyway?

i'm saying it's definitely possible for clinton to lose, and as i said earlier, if that were to happen it would almost certainly be a result of last friday's FBI announcement.

[DaveC]

okay, cool.

i'm not all that interested right now in discussing a post from a week and about 45 pages ago.

[Zoomerang96]

Originally Posted by U2democrat

Many people voted for Brexit, not thinking it would actually win. I suspect this could be the case for Trump as well.

That said, the Electoral College map favours Clinton. I think she wins NC and VA, and that will seal it for her.

Also don't underestimate those of us voting from overseas

exactly. brexit is a fitting example of how people can't rest easy until this is over.

donald trump has broken conventional wisdom from day 1 and nobody should dismiss the potential of him winning until the final votes have been cast. he's not the front runner but he's far too fucking close for anyone to feel smug just yet.

[Zoomerang96]

Originally Posted by DaveC

okay, cool.

i'm not all that interested right now in discussing a post from a week and about 45 pages ago.

i'm glad we got that sorted then

[gump]

Early voting in Nevada continues to be very good for Hillary. Very close to 2012 levels, when Obama won by 7 points. And 2/3 of the state will likely cast their votes early, making it difficult for an election day recovery.

Given how the map looks, NV could be key in maintaining her "firewall" if NH goes for Trump (which is a real possibility, though she's still ahead).

[trojanchick99]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

At what hour does everyone believe the election will be called?

There's a big watch party here in Leicester at a local pub, running until 5 AM (11 PM EST I believe). Could be around that time it gets called, IMO. Whenever 2012 was called though, I forgot. I feel like that was more like 9 PM.

edit: seems like 2012 was at 11 PM when it was called

Unless it's a freaking landslide I'd wager around 11 PM EST. CA polls close at 8PM PST, as do OR and WA, and that's what put Obama over in 2008.

However, based on the East Coast swing states, we'll know before then.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by Hewson

Like Rubio?



#stepoutoftheclosetMarco

And step into the foam




Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

[DaveC]

don't knock foam parties till you try 'em.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by DaveC

don't knock foam parties till you try 'em.

The coed ones were pretty fun in Panama City Beach.

[VintagePunk]

Originally Posted by U2democrat

Many people voted for Brexit, not thinking it would actually win. I suspect this could be the case for Trump as well.

That said, the Electoral College map favours Clinton. I think she wins NC and VA, and that will seal it for her.

Also don't underestimate those of us voting from overseas

Holy crap, how are you?? I've thought about you with the Kaine VP announcement. You must be pleased!

[coolian2]

Crooked Hillary