The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[deep]

Originally Posted by DaveC

well i do have a degree in 20th century european history, so i kinda feel like i have some knowledge of what i'm talking about beyond "average joe" level here.

i fully disagree that just because some of his preposterous claims of what he's going to do if he wins overlap somewhat with other political groups, that you can just slap those other groups' labels on trump (or couch them as neo-/proto-whatever) and call it a day. sure, blaming the nation's problems on foreigners and rounding up groups of people and making them second-class citizens or deporting them is definitely totalitarian (and indeed fascist too, but violent xenophobia is of course not at all unique to fascism).

but that's like calling sanders an outright communist because he says he wants universal healthcare and ignoring all the other - far more fundamental - tenets of communism that he wants nothing to do with. last i checked bernie sanders didn't call for agrarian collectivization or price fixing on all consumer goods, which are also to be sold in state-run stores.

this kind of hyperbole is just plain lazy.

trump is just a fucking blowhard saying shit he knows is going to outrage people and get clicks/eyeballs, *because* extremists also hold those beliefs. the only thing donald trump believes in is donald trump. if today he found out that promising to seize the means of production and converting america to a fully planned economy would get him elected, there's no doubt he'd say it tomorrow. does that make him all of a sudden an automatic communist the day after he was a fascist? no, of course it doesn't. that just makes him a gaping populist asshole who will say literally anything for votes.

trying to stay out of this one, and want to thank you as someone that has a strong left tilt for being able to set aside that bias with some objectivity here


it just seems to me the left is so desperate to stick any deplorable label on Trump to sway a few independents in a close election that facts don't matter,
a point in mind calling Bernie a communist, nonsense,

to try and taint Trump with Nazism, which many writers have done could not stick, I have seen this used with Dems in the past and have considered it desperation also,

So Nazism won't fly?

Next, let's write convoluted articles to get the Fascist label (Mussolini, Hitlers no 1 ally) to stick next best distortion

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

The legalization of gay marriage opened up a lot of doors for republicans.

Like Rubio?

#stepoutoftheclosetMarco

[deep]

Originally Posted by Pearl

It's always Florida, ain't it?

seems so, if Hillary wins it, I hope it is by 3+ % or more, same if Trump wins, we don't need 2000 all over again

and if she wins, it will really be all over for Trump, the other roads to victory are not really plausible, the rest of the excitement? will be the Senate races and most of the close ones are on the mid-west plus NV.

[LuckyNumber7]

At what hour does everyone believe the election will be called?

There's a big watch party here in Leicester at a local pub, running until 5 AM (11 PM EST I believe). Could be around that time it gets called, IMO. Whenever 2012 was called though, I forgot. I feel like that was more like 9 PM.

edit: seems like 2012 was at 11 PM when it was called

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

i didn't do that, nor did any of the articles do that.

i appreciate Dave C's thought out response. thank you.

i'm glad we pushed through and i had the chance to clarify a bit more what i meant.

[deep]

Originally Posted by BVS

So then how should one define him?

an unorthodox populist, taking on the insider politics of both parties with a right/ GOP tilt



somewhat like William Jefferson Clinton, he challenged the left of his party, with a clean break from Dukakis, Mondale, Kennedy more left leaning policies,


I do realize many of you were not adults during the 90s and don't remember it first hand, and the Clinton's are whitewashing it for the younger, Bernie, BLM crowd

here is a link

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democrats

[womanfish]

Originally Posted by deep

RCP projection has it down to one state, Florida

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

and they predict a Clinton win there by one 1.5%

who would have ever thought win the Democrats having what Obama called the best qualified ever to run for President against what MSM, the Dems are calling the worst candidate ever, with the last GOP candidate Romney, and the last two GOP presidents coming out and voting for Hillary, well Bush team is and Romney has done everything in his power, and some finances to defeat Trump

and we are down to one state?? with only a 1.5% lead for the best candidate ever against the worst candidate ever

I know this is the "talk" out there. But i really don't think it's going to come down to one state. I will concede OH, and probably IA. But I really think she is going to get PA, NH, NC, NV, and FL and the dominos will fall in a bigger way than is being portrayed at the moment. At least i hope.

I think there are demographic stats that are pointing to a larger victory in FL and elsewhere for Clinton. As of 11/2 in Florida, 170,000 more hispanics have voted early, than the total number that voted early in 2012.

and then the TargetSmart survey that had 28% of early voting Republicans, casting their vote for Clinton.

I think we will be in for some surprises on Tuesday.

[womanfish]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

At what hour does everyone believe the election will be called?

There's a big watch party here in Leicester at a local pub, running until 5 AM (11 PM EST I believe). Could be around that time it gets called, IMO. Whenever 2012 was called though, I forgot. I feel like that was more like 9 PM.

edit: seems like 2012 was at 11 PM when it was called

Florida polls close at 7PM eastern. 7:30 in North Carolina.
Upwards of 70% of all votes will be cast in FL before Tuesday, and probably half in NC. Which means there will be a large enough sample of votes that they can almost instantly project the winner.

If Clinton gets both those states (and NH & PA), thats it. Early night.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Caleb8844

Take it with a grain of salt, as it's Fox, but Brett Baier is more Megyn Kelly than Sean Hannity when it comes to reliability



FBI Sources Tell Fox News An "Indictment Is Likely" In Clinton Foundation Case | Video | RealClearPolitics


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

here's that grain of salt:

Fox News' Bret Baier apologizes for 'mistake' in Clinton Foundation report
By KELSEY SUTTON 11/04/16 01:29 PM EDT
Fox News reporter and anchor Bret Baier, who hosts “Special Report” on the cable channel, apologized Friday for reporting that indictments were “likely” in an ongoing investigation into Clinton Foundation investigation, adding that the reports were a mistake.

“All the time, but especially in a heated election on a topic this explosive, every word matters — no matter how well-sourced,” Baier told Fox News’ Jon Scott in the Friday broadcast of “Happening Now.” "Which brings me to this: I explained a couple of times yesterday the phrasing of one of my answers to [Fox News host] Brit Hume on Wednesday night, saying it was inartful the way I answered [a] question about whether the investigations would continue after the election. And I answered that, yes, our sources said it would, they would continue to likely an indictment. Well that wasn't just inartful. It was a mistake. And for that, I’m sorry.”
Baier apologized for the use of the word “indictment,” but said he and the network stand by their reporting.

“‘Indictment’ is obviously a very loaded word, Jon, especially in this atmosphere, and no one knows if there would or would not be an indictment, no matter how strong investigators feel their evidence is. ... We stand by the sourcing on the ongoing, active investigation into the Clinton Foundation and are working to get sources with knowledge of the details on the record and on camera, hopefully today.”


Fox News' Bret Baier apologizes for 'mistake' in Clinton Foundation report - POLITICO

[LemonMelon]

Originally Posted by deep

RCP projection has it down to one state, Florida

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

and they predict a Clinton win there by one 1.5%

who would have ever thought win the Democrats having what Obama called the best qualified ever to run for President against what MSM, the Dems are calling the worst candidate ever, with the last GOP candidate Romney, and the last two GOP presidents coming out and voting for Hillary, well Bush team is and Romney has done everything in his power, and some finances to defeat Trump

and we are down to one state?? with only a 1.5% lead for the best candidate ever against the worst candidate ever

In the case of Nevada and NC, the map is just going off of polling from 3 days ago and isn't taking into account early voting. All signs point to a Nevada win for Clinton and she has a decent lead in North Carolina despite a smaller than anticipated impact by blacks. Obama is campaigning for her there today, we'll see if that makes a difference in stirring up black enthusiasm.

Those states make winning Florida a luxury.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by womanfish

Florida polls close at 7PM eastern. 7:30 in North Carolina.
Upwards of 70% of all votes will be cast in FL before Tuesday, and probably half in NC. Which means there will be a large enough sample of votes that they can almost instantly project the winner.

If Clinton gets both those states (and NH & PA), thats it. Early night.

fwiw, lines are long (35+ minute estimated wait) at early voting stations in DC today, and this is a city that's majority black, will go 90%+ for HRC, and has no representation in Congress.

our votes literally never count.

[deep]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

At what hour does everyone believe the election will be called?

1.

if Florida breaks big for Hillary with a strong 4, 5, 6 or higher percentage that looks like it will hold, and then NC goes, it will be all over and her side can rest easy.

2.

If Trumps barely eeks out a FL win, he will need several other domino to line up and fall perfectly, it will be a longer night until we get to a point where mathematically he can not win, that could be as late as NV

3.

if somehow, as only one poster in here has predicted we get some kind of a Trump wave like Reagan 1980, and he is winning FL, NC by 3,4 or 5% or more, I think he can run up the score, not 1980 Reagan numbers, but he could get in the 290- 350 range and that would almost have to considered a mandate.


all along, I still expect the Dems and Hillary to pull it out, it is only a question if a clear win FL makes the rest of the evening less stressful for that side

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by LemonMelon

All signs point to a Nevada win for Clinton and she has a decent lead in North Carolina despite a smaller than anticipated impact by blacks. Obama is campaigning for her there today, we'll see if that makes a difference in stirring up black enthusiasm.

it's to be expected that african-americans are going to vote in smaller numbers in 2016 than they did in 2012 and 2008.

the Clintons are still well liked, and blacks are loyal Dems and most are probably terrified and disgusted by Trump, especially with his nativist racism and insults ("you people live in hell").

but there are pictures of the Obamas on people's refrigerators. they are, by and large, justifiably adored by african-americans as "family" -- and you better vote for your family.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

An asshole? If he has an inconsistent political ideology, why force a label on him?

Well I think he deserves more than that.

I think his "ideology" is ultimate power, I think he wants power. The disenfranchised right were the easiest prey and path to get there.

I think the desire to label it something is that whatever you want to call it, it's dangerous. To just say "he's an asshole" I think diminishes how dangerous he could be.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by BVS

To just say "he's an asshole" I think diminishes how dangerous he could be.

yes. people have been calling him a joke/buffoon/novelty act since last summer.

look where we are now. there's much more than a con going on. yes, he's a con man, but he's become more than that.

[deep]

Originally Posted by womanfish

I know this is the "talk" out there. But i really don't think it's going to come down to one state. I will concede OH, and probably IA. But I really think she is going to get PA, NH, NC, NV, and FL and the dominos will fall in a bigger way than is being portrayed at the moment. At least i hope.

I think there are demographic stats that are pointing to a larger victory in FL and elsewhere for Clinton. As of 11/2 in Florida, 170,000 more hispanics have voted early, than the total number that voted early in 2012.

and then the TargetSmart survey that had 28% of early voting Republicans, casting their vote for Clinton.

I think we will be in for some surprises on Tuesday.

I know you feel strongly about this election and I respect that,

your side certainly is the favorite here and has always had the avantage with the EC and the states, so good luck

one thing I do wish for good of the country, is that we do not have a debacle like we had in 2000, will no one here say that election was rigged?? and the outcome was 100% wrong??

to say an election can not be rigged and the wrong person put in office because the subject of that potential claim may be the person your bias leans toward, is that really honest and fair?

[womanfish]

Originally Posted by deep

I know you feel strongly about this election and I respect that,

your side certainly is the favorite here and has always had the avantage with the EC and the states, so good luck

one thing I do wish for good of the country, is that we do not have a debacle like we had in 2000, will no one here say that election was rigged?? and the outcome was 100% wrong??

to say an election can be rigged and the wrong person put in office because the subject of that potential claim may be the person your bias leans toward,

I totally agree with you on wanting a clear margin. Believe me, this week has wrecked my nerves looking at the polls. I even called to volunteer here in Florida, because i still think he has a better chance here than NC.
I will be watching with a stiff drink in my hand. A razor thin win would be bad news.
I am trying to be optimistic. And just acknowleding she has a few more paths to victory than Trump.

peace

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

DC
our votes literally never count.

Just ask George McGovern

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by womanfish

Florida polls close at 7PM eastern. 7:30 in North Carolina.

Upwards of 70% of all votes will be cast in FL before Tuesday, and probably half in NC. Which means there will be a large enough sample of votes that they can almost instantly project the winner.



If Clinton gets both those states (and NH & PA), thats it. Early night.

Florida polls close at 7 PM in their respective time zones. So don't forget, results don't get reported until after 8 PM. And even so, it's a state that always takes a few hours to project. 2012 was a blowout and I think we all *knew* by around 9-10 that it was over, but it wasn't until past 11 that statistics put that on display.

[anitram]

I always think back to Rob Ford winning in Toronto and all the teeth gnashing that followed. If you were able to distance yourself and see reality for what it is, it was fairly predictable. Just because many Torontonians who are politically minded and outspoken live in the "elite" downtown core doesn't mean that they are not surrounded by people who think a completely different way and experience life completely differently. Rob Ford was most certainly stupid and ill-suited as a mayoral candidate anywhere outside a rural town of 10,000 people where he probably would have done a decent job. But that doesn't also mean that our City Council is not 100% useless and disliked (much like the Congress), that the Toronto suburbs have been left behind in terms of infrastructure development and made reliant on the car precisely by the people downtown who see no use of it all the while missing the irony of their privileged position, that government services are largely ineffectual and unmodernized all the while property taxes have gone up. I mean the gravy train was a cutesy slogan but not actually untrue.

So yeah, in that sense I have always said that people laughed at Rob Ford, and laugh at Trump at their own peril.

I still say Hillary takes this and it won't be a landslide but it also won't be the squeaker so many are predicting.