The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[Axver]

Originally Posted by gump

That's it, I cant deal with BigMacPhisto anymore. Bye guys, enjoy the pre-election week.

Originally Posted by BVS

I guess you thought there wasn't any trolling in the first version so you had to edit it?

FFS you're a horrible human being, trolling or not.

No, we keep misunderstanding his progressivism. It's not him, it's us.

[LuckyNumber7]

Far Left*

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Wait a tick...

Did that putz really just say that an assassination of Hillary Clinton would be beneficial for democrats?

That's some progressive shit right there.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

I think violence is far more likely if Trump is elected than the other way around. I could see the black community in inner cities going off-the-chain about it all which is kind of odd since Trump probably did more to marginalize every other community in the country other than theirs, but given the fact that virtually all of the black community will have voted for Clinton, etc. I could see there being some anger over his election. If they're going to regularly have riots when all the facts aren't in about a single police shooting of a young black man, then why not have one when some epic creep is elected President?

It's just a hypothetical, anyway, since Clinton is likely to win. There probably would have been a severe backlash on the streets if Obama had lost in 2008, I suspect.

So this is pretty racist.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

Wait a tick...

Did that putz really just say that an assassination of Hillary Clinton would be beneficial for democrats?

That's some progressive shit right there.

Misogyny was always a motivation for a segment of the Bernie Bros.

He's like some weird white pivilege endgame.

[the tourist]

If nothing else, this thread is entertaining. In a trainwreck sort of way.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

She knows Bill and knows what he does and I'm sure he's been honest about these liaisons in private when she's asked as it jeopardizes both of their political careers. So by allowing it to continue, whether consensual or an assault, she is being an enabler.

"By allowing it to continue" - how do you not see how sexist you are?

Like he is a toddler with no impulse control and she is his mother letting him run down the aisles of the grocery store ripping open boxes of Cheerios.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

[LuckyNumber7]

I'd love to see McMullan win Utah, if only to promote third party voting in the future. Even if he's got shitty views. And because it makes Trump look bad.

[anitram]

I have the same electoral map as Headache but I think Hillary will take Florida.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by anitram

Fixed it for ya

[LemonMelon]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

I'd love to see McMullan win Utah, if only to promote third party voting in the future. Even if he's got shitty views. And because it makes Trump look bad.

It wouldn't justify this disaster of an election cycle, but it would be a cherry on top of the shit.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

Fixed it for ya

Thank you!

I go back to work from mat leave on Monday. I am frankly relieved that I won't be able to be home and follow the results all day. I just want this over with.

[Moonlit_Angel]

Originally Posted by anitram

I just want this over with.

You and me both.

I don't know that I'll watch any actual coverage on TV-maybe I'll flip over every so often, but otherwise, I think I'll focus on watching other things. Otherwise I'll probably just keep an eye on updates online or something.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by Moonlit_Angel

You and me both.

I don't know that I'll watch any actual coverage on TV-maybe I'll flip over every so often, but otherwise, I think I'll focus on watching other things. Otherwise I'll probably just keep an eye on updates online or something.

My husband is an economist and his clients (talking about hedge fund managers, etc) are all in a panic over a Trump victory and believe the markets will crash immediately if that happens. So unfortunately in our household the tv will be on until the wee hours of the morning.

I'm pretty sure I'll take one of my sleeping pills at 10 pm and knock myself out haha.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

I'd love to see McMullan win Utah, if only to promote third party voting in the future. Even if he's got shitty views. And because it makes Trump look bad.

My hope is that the vote in Utah fragments so much between Trump, McMullin, and Johnson that Clinton actually wins it. That'd be hilarious, and may teach some people about the merits of introducing some form of preferential voting.

[Moonlit_Angel]

Originally Posted by anitram

My husband is an economist and his clients (talking about hedge fund managers, etc) are all in a panic over a Trump victory and believe the markets will crash immediately if that happens. So unfortunately in our household the tv will be on until the wee hours of the morning.

Oh, wow. I'm sorry .

I've heard some talk about the stock markets being apprehensive over this, yeah. I'd be pretty terrified if I were tied to those, too.

Originally Posted by anitram

I'm pretty sure I'll take one of my sleeping pills at 10 pm and knock myself out haha.

LOL, hey, sounds like a plan to me! My mom suggested getting some alcohol that night.

[BigMacPhisto]

Fox News is the only place to watch the coverage. You either get to see them cry or gloat, depending on the outcome, and both are entertaining.

[Oregoropa]

We should all post our final maps before midnight 11/8 (Monday)

When you look at my map you may think I smoked crack and then Jumped a Shark and smoked more crack. I expect those responses.

I have lived in many different states NJ, OR, NV, and currently PA.

Before Last Friday the race was tightening. Early vote indicators show a 40% surge in Independent/Unaffiliated voters over 2012. Trump is consistently leading with Independents in polls. These are folks who are pissed off at both parties in the past 4 years and or people that have never voted before (or haven't in years). The Blue Collar Midwest voter that stayed home last go around would have given Romney the victory in 2012. Pollsters cannot figure out this number that Trump is drawing out of the woodwork nationwide. Bottomline the 2012 model is not optimal in the R-D-I sampling model of polls.

Let's dig deeper into some of what we know. According to early voting African-American turnout is down significantly from 2012. Before Friday Trump was polling above 20% African-American Support in PA, NC, and FL. Hillary needs to hold him below 15% in that demographic or it could spell real problems for her.

Traditional polling on landlines is more difficult nowadays. In 1984, 45% of phone calls were answered with successful questioning. That number is down to 9% today.

History has shown us that in a change election undecideds break toward the challenger of the statuts quo in the final days.

Let's give Trump a 4% boost in the regard.

Trump overperformed polls in primary battles. Proof positive a Shy-Tory effect (Brexitology) of people who voted for Trump but were afraid to tell the pollster. Primaries are different but the same phenomenom is probably going on as well with the current polls.

3% Trump advantage.

The mystery volume of those never voters. Seen pundits speculate 4-6%.

4% Trump advantage

Many Never-Trumpers have come to realize the stakes of sitting on the sidelines with the FBI re-opening the investigation. His GOP support levels will trend from the high 70s to near 90% when they get in the ballot box. In an ABC Washington Post poll Trump led Hillary by 11 points when asked of those for Day of Voting.

With Friday's investigation announcement google trends showed a massive spike in people want to change their early votes. Most in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hillary's numbers will be deflated with the revelations. Especially in big Bernie states in New England, the Midwest, and Oregon.

Taking all these measures into account I come to the conclusion that Trump will win states where is currently tied to even -4 down. They belong to him. Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now statistical dead heats. Minnesota had a poll 10 days ago that only showed Trump down 2. Wisconsin had a poll with him up 4. Bear in mind The people of Minnesota are up in arms over a 60% healthcare surge in cost. The legislature is even calling for an emergency session. When these bills hit your kitchen table, your preconceived notions of who the candidates are goes out the window. There goes the vacation you planned. How in God's name am I gonna budget for this? Real life pocketbook issues will drive the voters to look at both candidates' policies on Obamacare. Advantage Trump.

During the Summer there were several polls that showed the race to close for comfort with Trump down 4 in NJ, 4 in Rhode Island, 2 in CT, Tied in Maine, Up 2 in Oregon.
Hillary is now running ads in NJ. Making massive ad buy in Michigan and Virginia as well. The campaigns' behaviors tell you what their internal polling is telling them. Since Friday Trump has started hitting Michigan and Wisconsin on campaign stops.

Jimmy Carter's pollster Pat Caddell said "the dam is breaking" much like he saw in 1980 which led to the Reagan landslide victory.

[Moonlit_Angel]

That is a scary looking map.

(Times like this I wish my favorite color wasn't red )