The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[womanfish]

LMAO!!!! Melania just said that 50% of women live in poverty and 60% of women have no healthcare. The illegal immigrant apple doesn't fall far from the illegal immigrant hating tree...

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

Not guilty until she's declared guilty by law.

But we all know O.J. did it, so...

did you seriously just compare hillary clinton with oj simpson?

[BigMacPhisto]

Not at all. I'm just saying that being declared not guilty doesn't necessarily make you innocent (although it does in my eyes as far as the law is concerned and should be respected).

Even if Hillary Clinton were guilty of pay for play schemes or whatever, she's still going to have the best attorneys in the entire world on her defense team and would likely be acquitted.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

Or because there was only one other close one from the 70s, 80s and 90s...I'm pointing out that the three this century are the exception rather than the rule in history.

But it was worth pointing out the surprise of it all. It's a shame that Democratic party members have essentially brought Armageddon upon the country. They can stay home the next time we make a choice rather than rush to Corporate Booker because he has all the financial backing, and, you know.

Or, you don't know how to write. That's clearly not what was detailed in your post. Nice try.

[womanfish]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

In response to womanfish:

6. Absolutely meaningless. So a handful of people that you know (and likely share your beliefs) somehow can tell you the result for tens of millions of Floridian voters? Come on.

I'm not talking about my buddies I'm talking with at work. I'm talking about professionals in politics, in campaigns, pollsters, on the ground working with the actual numbers, etc...

I live in FL. I actually think it is probably the best chance for Trump between NC, PA, NV and NH. But I've heard lots of positive feedback about FL for Clinton from those i listed above.

[womanfish]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

In response to womanfish:


8. There is no way in hell that number is correct. It's just some weird anomaly. If that were the case, the rest of the polls would show Trump losing Florida by a very wide margin already. People really try to act like Florida is some cosmopolitan area with a lot of different races interacting and a sizable Hispanic population, etc. but the reality is that half the state is made up of the same angry white rednecks that hold a majority in the rest of the South and do next to no interacting with the rest of the populace. While I agree that the demographics are rapidly shifting in favor of the Democrats, Republicans can still easily win big in Florida whenever turnout is down (Governor, Rubio or even President this year).

Obama was up just over a point in the polls in 2012. But his strong ground game ended up with him winning by 3.5% So ground game matters.
Latino turnout is up at record levels as well, and they are notoriously under represented in polling. So we shall see.

[LuckyNumber7]

Yeah, Florida isn't the same as the rest of the south at all. It's one of the largest states with a diverse representation of voting demographics. Inclusive of said rednecks, and a "cosmopolitan" population.

If you think otherwise, you're ignorant, but that's something we already knew.

[LemonMelon]

Florida is extremely close right now. Currently, there is a larger percentage of outstanding mail ballots from Democrats than Republicans, whereas Republicans currently hold a +0.22% advantage in returned ballots. But a higher percentage of Democrats are keeping within the party line than are Republicans, so I like Hillary's chances at this point.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by womanfish

I'm not talking about my buddies I'm talking with at work. I'm talking about professionals in politics, in campaigns, pollsters, on the ground working with the actual numbers, etc...

I live in FL. I actually think it is probably the best chance for Trump between NC, PA, NV and NH. But I've heard lots of positive feedback about FL for Clinton from those i listed above.

my professional politico friends aren't worried.

[Caleb8844]

Originally Posted by deep

do any of the Clinton supporters want to weigh in on the possibility of an Obama pardon for Hillary?

I've wondered about that. If Obama pardons Clinton for her handling of classified documents while leaving Snowden to freeze in Russia, I'm going to find that pretty unforgivable.

[DaveC]

obama is far too politically astute to just blanket-pardon hillary nixon-style sometime in the next two months. not gonna happen.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by LemonMelon

Florida is extremely close right now. Currently, there is a larger percentage of outstanding mail ballots from Democrats than Republicans, whereas Republicans currently hold a +0.22% advantage in returned ballots. But a higher percentage of Democrats are keeping within the party line than are Republicans, so I like Hillary's chances at this point.

I mailed in my vote. They make that shit so technical... they want any reason for a vote by mail not to count.

Your ballot has no instructions for how they want it printed. Double sided or single? 8.5"x11", or what happens if I print it on European A4? Can I fold my ballot into the envelope? Then, they want you to put the ballot in an unmarked envelope by itself, sealed, and then sign an absentee form separate from your ballot and enclose it with the unmarked ballot inside another envelope. If literally any of these things are incorrect, or if you signed your absentee form mildly incorrectly, they invalidate your vote and don't have to notify you.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

I mailed in my vote. They make that shit so technical... they want any reason for a vote by mail not to count.

Your ballot has no instructions for how they want it printed. Double sided or single? 8.5"x11", or what happens if I print it on European A4? Can I fold my ballot into the envelope? Then, they want you to put the ballot in an unmarked envelope by itself, sealed, and then sign an absentee form separate from your ballot and enclose it with the unmarked ballot inside another envelope. If literally any of these things are incorrect, or if you signed your absentee form mildly incorrectly, they invalidate your vote and don't have to notify you.

voter suppression is real.

i had to wait 2 hours to vote in 2012 in a very blue city in a purple state with a red governor. somehow, the spacious conference room with, like, a dozen voting machines where i normally voted was somehow under construction and the voting machines were reduced to maybe 4 and crammed into rooms in the basement.

[Caleb8844]

Originally Posted by DaveC

obama is far too politically astute to just blanket-pardon hillary nixon-style sometime in the next two months. not gonna happen.

Agreed. Additionally, I suspect Obama and the Clintons don't have a rosy enough relationship for him to stick his political neck out like that for her. He cares about his legacy too much to tarnish it for HRC, I think.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

Agreed. It's always been conjecture and probably still is. I doubt it will happen.

Where do you stand on the issue of pay-for-play with the Clinton Fund? Do you think it's likely or unlikely that it happened?

Again, something they've been pursuing for months without any movement.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

Again, something they've been pursuing for months without any movement.

because there is no movement, if we talk about the investigation, maybe send a letter to Congress, people will think there is movement.

[bono_212]

Originally Posted by DaveC

obama is far too politically astute to just blanket-pardon hillary nixon-style sometime in the next two months. not gonna happen.

Not to mention she needs something to be pardoned for first.

[womanfish]

Looks like one path for Donald (Wisconsin) ain't gonna happen

Early vote excels in Democratic counties

[BEAL]

The fact that the vote isn't 349,999,993 to 7 shows there's something seriously off with this country. (I accounted for the Trump Family voting for him...I honestly don't know how many are in his family, but can imagine even some of his relatives don't like him)

This shouldn't have been a choice. They are not equal. I think Donald is right about the game being rigged, and he showed how to play it. No policy, no tact, no brains and you can make it to within striking distance of the most powerful office in the world.

[womanfish]

I have an idea. Let's have a little fun and do our predictions for November 8th. I think the most interesting would be to list out the swing/possible swing states and say who you think will end up winning it. Not sure if this should be a new thread or not, but if someone wants to do that, please do.

As of now I think states that could possibly fall into swing status are:

NV
AZ
UT
CO
IA
WI
MI
OH
PA
NH
NC
GA
FL
AK

Thats a LOT

My predictions are:

NV - C
AZ - C
UT - T
CO - C
IA - T
WI - C
MI - C
OH - T
PA - C
NH - C
NC - C
GA - T
FL - C
AK - T

My prediction: Clinton wins 334 to 204

you can use this map to tally your numbers

2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

have fun