The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[Irvine511]

Florida polls close at 7PM eastern. 7:30 in North Carolina.
Upwards of 70% of all votes will be cast in FL before Tuesday, and probably half in NC. Which means there will be a large enough sample of votes that they can almost instantly project the winner.

If Clinton gets both those states (and NH & PA), thats it. Early night.

fwiw, lines are long (35+ minute estimated wait) at early voting stations in DC today, and this is a city that's majority black, will go 90%+ for HRC, and has no representation in Congress.

our votes literally never count.

 

[deep]

At what hour does everyone believe the election will be called?

1.

if Florida breaks big for Hillary with a strong 4, 5, 6 or higher percentage that looks like it will hold, and then NC goes, it will be all over and her side can rest easy.

2.

If Trumps barely eeks out a FL win, he will need several other domino to line up and fall perfectly, it will be a longer night until we get to a point where mathematically he can not win, that could be as late as NV

3.

if somehow, as only one poster in here has predicted we get some kind of a Trump wave like Reagan 1980, and he is winning FL, NC by 3,4 or 5% or more, I think he can run up the score, not 1980 Reagan numbers, but he could get in the 290- 350 range and that would almost have to considered a mandate.


all along, I still expect the Dems and Hillary to pull it out, it is only a question if a clear win FL makes the rest of the evening less stressful for that side

 

[Irvine511]

All signs point to a Nevada win for Clinton and she has a decent lead in North Carolina despite a smaller than anticipated impact by blacks. Obama is campaigning for her there today, we'll see if that makes a difference in stirring up black enthusiasm.

it's to be expected that african-americans are going to vote in smaller numbers in 2016 than they did in 2012 and 2008.

the Clintons are still well liked, and blacks are loyal Dems and most are probably terrified and disgusted by Trump, especially with his nativist racism and insults ("you people live in hell").

but there are pictures of the Obamas on people's refrigerators. they are, by and large, justifiably adored by african-americans as "family" -- and you better vote for your family.

 

[BVS]

An asshole? If he has an inconsistent political ideology, why force a label on him?

Well I think he deserves more than that.

I think his "ideology" is ultimate power, I think he wants power. The disenfranchised right were the easiest prey and path to get there.

I think the desire to label it something is that whatever you want to call it, it's dangerous. To just say "he's an asshole" I think diminishes how dangerous he could be.

 

[Irvine511]

To just say "he's an asshole" I think diminishes how dangerous he could be.

yes. people have been calling him a joke/buffoon/novelty act since last summer.

look where we are now. there's much more than a con going on. yes, he's a con man, but he's become more than that.

 

[deep]

I know this is the "talk" out there. But i really don't think it's going to come down to one state. I will concede OH, and probably IA. But I really think she is going to get PA, NH, NC, NV, and FL and the dominos will fall in a bigger way than is being portrayed at the moment. At least i hope.

I think there are demographic stats that are pointing to a larger victory in FL and elsewhere for Clinton. As of 11/2 in Florida, 170,000 more hispanics have voted early, than the total number that voted early in 2012.

and then the TargetSmart survey that had 28% of early voting Republicans, casting their vote for Clinton.

I think we will be in for some surprises on Tuesday.

I know you feel strongly about this election and I respect that,

your side certainly is the favorite here and has always had the avantage with the EC and the states, so good luck

one thing I do wish for good of the country, is that we do not have a debacle like we had in 2000, will no one here say that election was rigged?? and the outcome was 100% wrong??

to say an election can not be rigged and the wrong person put in office because the subject of that potential claim may be the person your bias leans toward, is that really honest and fair?

 

[womanfish]

I know you feel strongly about this election and I respect that,

your side certainly is the favorite here and has always had the avantage with the EC and the states, so good luck

one thing I do wish for good of the country, is that we do not have a debacle like we had in 2000, will no one here say that election was rigged?? and the outcome was 100% wrong??

to say an election can be rigged and the wrong person put in office because the subject of that potential claim may be the person your bias leans toward,

I totally agree with you on wanting a clear margin. Believe me, this week has wrecked my nerves looking at the polls. I even called to volunteer here in Florida, because i still think he has a better chance here than NC.
I will be watching with a stiff drink in my hand. A razor thin win would be bad news.
I am trying to be optimistic. And just acknowleding she has a few more paths to victory than Trump.

peace

 

[Hewson]

DC
our votes literally never count.

Just ask George McGovern

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Florida polls close at 7PM eastern. 7:30 in North Carolina.

Upwards of 70% of all votes will be cast in FL before Tuesday, and probably half in NC. Which means there will be a large enough sample of votes that they can almost instantly project the winner.



If Clinton gets both those states (and NH & PA), thats it. Early night.

Florida polls close at 7 PM in their respective time zones. So don't forget, results don't get reported until after 8 PM. And even so, it's a state that always takes a few hours to project. 2012 was a blowout and I think we all *knew* by around 9-10 that it was over, but it wasn't until past 11 that statistics put that on display.

 

[anitram]

I always think back to Rob Ford winning in Toronto and all the teeth gnashing that followed. If you were able to distance yourself and see reality for what it is, it was fairly predictable. Just because many Torontonians who are politically minded and outspoken live in the "elite" downtown core doesn't mean that they are not surrounded by people who think a completely different way and experience life completely differently. Rob Ford was most certainly stupid and ill-suited as a mayoral candidate anywhere outside a rural town of 10,000 people where he probably would have done a decent job. But that doesn't also mean that our City Council is not 100% useless and disliked (much like the Congress), that the Toronto suburbs have been left behind in terms of infrastructure development and made reliant on the car precisely by the people downtown who see no use of it all the while missing the irony of their privileged position, that government services are largely ineffectual and unmodernized all the while property taxes have gone up. I mean the gravy train was a cutesy slogan but not actually untrue.

So yeah, in that sense I have always said that people laughed at Rob Ford, and laugh at Trump at their own peril.

I still say Hillary takes this and it won't be a landslide but it also won't be the squeaker so many are predicting.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Well I think he deserves more than that.



I think his "ideology" is ultimate power, I think he wants power. The disenfranchised right were the easiest prey and path to get there.



I think the desire to label it something is that whatever you want to call it, it's dangerous. To just say "he's an asshole" I think diminishes how dangerous he could be.

"Ultimate power" is such a strange way to put it. What at all suggests he's anything more than an egomaniac? He doesn't want power. He wants the mere title of "powerful." He wants people to know how awesome and mighty he is. He doesn't actually give a shit about being president. I don't know about you, but I fully 100% believe the reports that Trump's VP vetting offered the options to opportunity to be "the most powerful VP in US history." He doesn't want to rule so much as he wants to be the ruler.

I never diminished how dangerous of a candidate he is. That's in your interpretation of what I said. Go back a few posts, I definitely said [in response to a Hewson post] that the fact that he wouldn't follow up with his dangerous threats doesn't mean he's not potentially catastrophic.

But I think it's particularly dangerous to misidentify what he is. Because it legitimizes the claim. If you call him a fascist, you're legitimizing him as a fascist. If you fight the wall, the wall becomes a serious discussion. But it was never serious before.

 

[Hewson]

Trump's presidential aspirations amount to:

 

[DaveC]

To just say "he's an asshole" I think diminishes how dangerous he could be.

just like saying "he's a fascist" diminishes how dangerous fascists could be.

that came nicely full-circle.

 

[U2DMfan]

As we have seen in many elections the Electoral College can cut both ways. I still like it because it causes our politicians to focus on the entire country.

IMO, that's a truly bizarre view of things. The exact opposite is true. If you are in a solidly Red or Blue state, as 2/3's of us are - you get almost no attention from the other side. If the EC was thrown out and every vote actually mattered, then you'd truly see politicians focus on the entire country. If you're 50 years old and a loyal Democrat and you live in - just say, Kansas - your vote for President has quite literally never mattered. That's 100% bullshit no matter how you slice it. Tell that Kansan how politicians focus on the entire country in the present system.

Many people don't vote for President because their votes simply do not matter. How many millions could this represent? Hell, if it was only 1 million it would be hugely significant. The way things are now with the EC it is not truly representative. We'd have a higher turnout if every vote actually did matter.

To me the EC is a relic of an ideal to have representatives of the elite actually choosing the President under the facade of true democracy. And by representatives, I'm talking elitist rich white men. Certainly not women, the not-quite-humans (dark-skinned people) or unwashed pig farmers. That's the system we are still under, though it's supposed usefulness keeps getting retro-fitted. It is what it is.

To me Republicans oppose it because they know they would never win another election if you could turn out the major metropolitan areas. And Democrats oppose it because they have the largest states already in their pocket. One more example of how the powerful game the system towards A or B as the only options on the tale. And it's never been a less appetizing choice.

I do appreciate the idea of how the EC was designed to not allow for the tyranny of the majority but I don't really see how the EC abates that anymore. The Electors in the EC aren't as powerful as they used to be. So it's not even really working like it was designed. I'm not an expert on it. I just believe in true democracy. We can pick any President we want as long as they are 35 years old and born in the U.S. Whether that is John Kasich, Elizabeth Warren, Joe The Plumber or Kanye West.

 

[DaveC]

I always think back to Rob Ford winning in Toronto and all the teeth gnashing that followed. If you were able to distance yourself and see reality for what it is, it was fairly predictable. Just because many Torontonians who are politically minded and outspoken live in the "elite" downtown core doesn't mean that they are not surrounded by people who think a completely different way and experience life completely differently. Rob Ford was most certainly stupid and ill-suited as a mayoral candidate anywhere outside a rural town of 10,000 people where he probably would have done a decent job. But that doesn't also mean that our City Council is not 100% useless and disliked (much like the Congress), that the Toronto suburbs have been left behind in terms of infrastructure development and made reliant on the car precisely by the people downtown who see no use of it all the while missing the irony of their privileged position, that government services are largely ineffectual and unmodernized all the while property taxes have gone up. I mean the gravy train was a cutesy slogan but not actually untrue.

So yeah, in that sense I have always said that people laughed at Rob Ford, and laugh at Trump at their own peril.

I still say Hillary takes this and it won't be a landslide but it also won't be the squeaker so many are predicting.

i'm not sure a violently abusive crackhead like ol' robbie could have done a decent job no matter how small the town. but i agree with you on your last point. i predicted 311-227 yesterday, and the more i think on that the more comfortable i am with that call. 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map although i freely admit you could go take a look at the football pick em thread in put 'em under pressure, and immediately lose all confidence in my prediction abilities.

show us your map if you have some time this weekend, i'm interested to know how people think it will actually play out in the end.

 

[BVS]

"Ultimate power" is such a strange way to put it. What at all suggests he's anything more than an egomaniac? He doesn't want power. He wants the mere title of "powerful." He wants people to know how awesome and mighty he is. He doesn't actually give a shit about being president. I don't know about you, but I fully 100% believe the reports that Trump's VP vetting offered the options to opportunity to be "the most powerful VP in US history." He doesn't want to rule so much as he wants to be the ruler.

I don't think he wants to govern, but I do think he want to rule, I think he wants to punish.

 

[Zoomerang96]

right, the biggest swing in american political history is going to happen in less than two weeks in favour of donald fucking trump over some emails.

jeeeezus we need a 500x500 size of that eye rolling smiley like never before for this thread this week.

christ on a bike, what provoked that sort of reaction?

i just saw this now, but after seeing the most recent polls are you sure that your enormous, petulant eye roll is as on point as you initially thought?

the very fact that trump is in the margin of error, if not in the overall lead should tell you all you need to know.

... honestly, do you follow the polls at all? or are you somehow suggesting that by my initial comment i'm a trump supporter?

 

[DaveC]

i just saw this now, but after seeing the most recent polls are you sure that your enormous, petulant eye roll is as on point as you initially thought?

yep. absolutely.

the very fact that trump is in the margin of error, if not in the overall lead should tell you all you need to know.

it tells me that you don't understand how the electoral college works.

 

[U2democrat]

Many people voted for Brexit, not thinking it would actually win. I suspect this could be the case for Trump as well.

That said, the Electoral College map favours Clinton. I think she wins NC and VA, and that will seal it for her.

Also don't underestimate those of us voting from overseas

 

[Zoomerang96]

yep. absolutely.



it tells me that you don't understand how the electoral college works.

then by all means, you should make an absolute fortune on the result. i assume you've bet your life savings?

i know full well how the electoral college works you condescending donut. since the FBI revelations of a week ago, clinton has slid down substantially from her perch of being clear front runner. is she most likely to win? absolutely, but there's a very real chance she could lose. and no, i'm not talking about popular vote, i'm talking about battleground states that are very much toss-ups, and even democrate leaning states such as colorado, new hampshire and even pennsylvania that are no longer safe bets. take a look at this if you don't believe me:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

... just why the hell are you picking on this statement anyway?

i'm saying it's definitely possible for clinton to lose, and as i said earlier, if that were to happen it would almost certainly be a result of last friday's FBI announcement.

 

[DaveC]

okay, cool.

i'm not all that interested right now in discussing a post from a week and about 45 pages ago.

 

[Zoomerang96]

Many people voted for Brexit, not thinking it would actually win. I suspect this could be the case for Trump as well.

That said, the Electoral College map favours Clinton. I think she wins NC and VA, and that will seal it for her.

Also don't underestimate those of us voting from overseas

exactly. brexit is a fitting example of how people can't rest easy until this is over.

donald trump has broken conventional wisdom from day 1 and nobody should dismiss the potential of him winning until the final votes have been cast. he's not the front runner but he's far too fucking close for anyone to feel smug just yet.

 

[Zoomerang96]

okay, cool.

i'm not all that interested right now in discussing a post from a week and about 45 pages ago.

i'm glad we got that sorted then

 

[gump]

Early voting in Nevada continues to be very good for Hillary. Very close to 2012 levels, when Obama won by 7 points. And 2/3 of the state will likely cast their votes early, making it difficult for an election day recovery.

Given how the map looks, NV could be key in maintaining her "firewall" if NH goes for Trump (which is a real possibility, though she's still ahead).

 

[trojanchick99]

At what hour does everyone believe the election will be called?

There's a big watch party here in Leicester at a local pub, running until 5 AM (11 PM EST I believe). Could be around that time it gets called, IMO. Whenever 2012 was called though, I forgot. I feel like that was more like 9 PM.

edit: seems like 2012 was at 11 PM when it was called

Unless it's a freaking landslide I'd wager around 11 PM EST. CA polls close at 8PM PST, as do OR and WA, and that's what put Obama over in 2008.

However, based on the East Coast swing states, we'll know before then.

 

[Oregoropa]

Like Rubio?



#stepoutoftheclosetMarco

And step into the foam




Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[DaveC]

don't knock foam parties till you try 'em.

 

[Oregoropa]

don't knock foam parties till you try 'em.

The coed ones were pretty fun in Panama City Beach.

 

[VintagePunk]

Many people voted for Brexit, not thinking it would actually win. I suspect this could be the case for Trump as well.

That said, the Electoral College map favours Clinton. I think she wins NC and VA, and that will seal it for her.

Also don't underestimate those of us voting from overseas

Holy crap, how are you?? I've thought about you with the Kaine VP announcement. You must be pleased!

 

[coolian2]

Crooked Hillary