The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

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complains about someone being dismissive

is dismissive when that person returns immediately with more substance.

that's a helpful response, thanks for the discussion. :rolleyes:
 
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Did anyone read this?

JACKSON, Ga. — “Put the guns down!”
The order crackled over a loudspeaker from two sheriff’s deputies crouched behind the doors of police cruisers, semiautomatic rifles at their sides.
Several middle-aged militiamen were toting loaded AR-15 rifles and 9-millimeter pistols at a makeshift checkpoint — two lawn chairs and a narrow board — on a dirt driveway in central Georgia. The men, members of the Georgia Security Force III% militia, grumbled but laid their weapons down on the red clay earth.
The brief standoff ended with an amicable chat, and the men retrieved their weapons the moment the lawmen drove away. But the episode further stoked the militiamen’s abiding fears that their cherished Second Amendment rights are under assault.
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The Georgia Security Force is one of scores of extremist militias nationwide that have rallied around the presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump, heartened by his harsh attacks on immigrants, Muslims and Syrian refugees. But no single issue motivates militiamen more than guns — and the enduring belief that Hillary Clinton is plotting to take them away.
The Georgia militiamen mobilized in the piney woods here last weekend to fire weapons and train for the day when, they believe, they will be forced to defend what they call “our way of life.” Two dozen armed men and women conducted live-fire search-and-destroy drills, pumping out enough rounds to saw through and topple a loblolly pine.
“We thought it was bad under eight years of Obama, but the gun-grabbing is going to get a whole lot worse if Hillary gets elected,” said Chris Hill, 42, a blond-bearded paralegal who goes by the code name Blood Agent and commands the militia. He wore combat fatigues and packed a .40-caliber Smith & Wesson pistol on his hip.
When Mr. Trump says he wants to make America great again, Mr. Hill and his roughly 50 local militiamen are enthralled. They long for an America they believe has been stolen from them by liberals, immigrants and “the P.C. crowd.” Their America is one where Christianity is taught in schools, abortion is illegal and immigrants hail from Europe, not faraway Muslim lands.
These weekend warriors form the obdurate bedrock of Trump Nation: white, rural and working class. They vote, and they are heavily armed, right down to the .22-caliber derringer fired by Nadine Wheeler, 63, a retiree who calls her tiny gun “the best in feminine protection.”
During two days of conversations, grievances poured forth from the group as effortlessly as bullets from a gun barrel. On armed excursions through sun-dappled forests, they spoke of a vague but looming tyranny — an amalgam of sinister forces to be held at bay only with a firearm and the willingness to use it.
They are machinists and retirees, roofers and factory line workers, all steeped in the culture of the rural South. They say Mr. Trump, a Manhattan billionaire and real estate tycoon, speaks for them.
“Within the extreme right, many of Trump’s most passionate backers come from the militia movement,” said Mark Pitcavage, a senior research fellow at the Center on Extremism at the Anti-Defamation League. “The militia movement is overwhelmingly behind Trump’s candidacy.”
For militias, Mr. Trump’s anti-establishment views “play right into their paranoid style of politics,” said Ryan Lenz, editor of the Hatewatch blog at the Southern Poverty Law Center.
The Georgia Security Force is noteworthy among militias for its acute Islamophobia, Mr. Pitcavage said. Its members are so-called 3 percenters, who believe that only 3 percent of colonists fought in the Revolutionary War. That is “a historical myth,” said Mr. Pitcavage, a historian, but useful for those who believe a few people with guns can defeat tyranny.
At least 330 such 3 percenter groups have formed in all 50 states, by Mr. Pitcavage’s count. There were 276 active militias in 2015, Mr. Lenz said. The number includes some 3 percenter groups.
Mr. Trump has retweeted posts from white nationalists and Nazi sympathizers, but Mr. Hill and his followers insist that they are not racists, only staunch citizens and patriots with an admittedly apocalyptic outlook. They consider Mr. Trump a bulwark against the candidate they call “Shillary” Clinton.
Teresa Bueter, 41, worked for 26 years behind a hot grill at a Waffle House while raising three children. Now she is an active member of the Georgia Security Force, decked out in military fatigues. She owns a .32-caliber pistol and a German-made sniper rifle.
Mrs. Bueter said Syrian refugees entering the country “scare the crap out of me.” With her guns and the militia’s weekend paramilitary drills, she said, she is prepared to fight for the values she has instilled in her children and three grandchildren.
“Donald Trump would fit right in with our little group,” she said. “He wants America the way we want it, back like it used to be.”
Firearms are central to their identities. In September, some Georgia Security Force members paraded with guns while protesting plans for a local mosque; one wore a T-shirt that read, “Islam Is of the Devil.” Last year, armed Security Force militiamen rallied in support of the Confederate battle flag.
At their campground, militia members squeezed off several dozen rounds before breakfast. Then they sat down to scrambled eggs and sausage amid the lingering scent of cordite. Mr. Hill asked who was voting for Mr. Trump. Everyone shouted a unanimous “Oorah!” .
The militia members seem comfortable inside the same sort of echo chamber of self-confirming arguments they ascribe to the liberal elites they say denigrate and demean them. They repeat tropes gleaned from militia websites and social media. They seem convinced that either the Islamic State, or agents dispatched by Mrs. Clinton, or both, may soon descend on the woods of central Georgia.
In separate interviews, various militiamen shared the same conspiracy theories, almost word for word: Muslim refugees have established terrorist training camps on American soil. The liberal billionaire George Soros has rigged voting machines for Democrats.
“We’re like a small military of like-minded people,” said Donald Ensey, 44, a father of four and grandfather of two, who wore fatigue pants and a black T-shirt bearing a profane depiction of an Islamic State fighter and a goat.
Mr. Ensey, who has a 3 percenter logo tattooed on the back of his hand, said training with the militia was essential to securing everything he had worked for in his lifetime. Even if Mrs. Clinton is not elected, he said, surely someone else will come for his guns.
Mr. Hill, a Marine veteran, holds FTX sessions, or field training exercises, roughly once a month. Otherwise the members communicate via regular posts on Facebook. Prospective members are approved by a “review board” of current members who vet them on their compatibility with the militia’s beliefs. This session was held on 14 acres owned by Devin Bowen, a machinist who was having a miserable day even before the deputies forced him to drop his pistol.
The door of his trailer — the one with a sign that reads, “If You Don’t Live Here, Don’t Come Here” — was smashed in earlier that day. Three rifles, a crossbow, 13,000 rounds of ammunition and an 800-pound gun safe were taken — not by federal agents, but by local thieves. Worse, Mr. Bowen was coughing up blood from an unknown malady. He soothed his throat by chugging cold Coca-Colas.
Mr. Bowen’s comrades urged him to see a doctor, prompting a sour discussion about yet another conspiracy they see: the Affordable Care Act. Mr. Bowen waved them off. He was more concerned about Muslim immigrants’ imposing Shariah law.
“You cannot come to my country and shove your religion down my throat,” he said, coughing.
Phillip King, 25, who builds ductwork for a living, was outfitted in camouflage fatigues and a tactical vest holding ammunition clips. Mr. King, code name Cowboy, is the only African-American member of the Georgia Security Force.
He said he was not offended by the militiamen’s affection for the Confederate battle flag. He shares their love of guns, their conservative values and their view of Mr. Trump as someone who will insulate them from the tyranny of the political left.
“This is my family — a brotherhood,” he said.
For Daniels Potts, 21, owning a gun and learning to use it as part of a well-trained militia are essential to halting what he calls “the spread of radical Islam.” He appreciates Mr. Trump’s fierce opposition to Muslim refugees. “Not every Muslim is ISIS, but a lot of them are,” Mr. Potts said.
He proudly calls himself an infidel and a deplorable. His arms bear tattoos of the 3 percenter logo and of the Kuntry Krackerz, a group affiliated with the Georgia Security Force.
Mr. Potts earns $16 to $18 an hour as a commercial roofer. He considers himself the type of law-abiding, hard-working American he said is belittled and marginalized by coastal elites. “We’ve been forgotten,” he said.
Mr. Hill, the militia commander, led Mr. Potts and two dozen other members through a boot camp-style obstacle course carved out of the woods. They clambered over a wall of logs and fired at imaginary enemies as they “cleared” rooms made of plywood and sheets of black plastic.
One militiaman wore a shirt with a message that read, “When Tyranny Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.”
It was all part of the militia’s efforts to be armed, ready and united for looming threats, especially if Mrs. Clinton is elected, Mr. Hill said. He mentioned his two children. “The security and safety of my kids motivates what I do,” he said.
Mr. Hill, who calls his group a “defensive militia,” predicted unrest and violence from extremists on both sides no matter who wins the presidential election. If Mrs. Clinton wins, he said, millions of gun owners will march on Washington at the first attempt to restrict gun ownership.
“If the people decide they can no longer suffer the inequities,” he said, “I’d be with the people and I’d take my guns up to Washington, D.C.”


A Militia Gets Battle Ready for a ‘Gun-Grabbing’ Clinton Presidency
 
I'll say it again -- he's a conman. Any direct links to historical fascists that Trump has (say, for example, Hitler)... were on purpose. Strictly. He intentionally mimicked Hitler to draw outrage. He intentionally chooses his populist views to manipulate. He intentionally plays fine lines because it grinds gears, gets people talking, and adds to his brand. To his ego. To say he has a political ideology is giving him far more credit than he deserves. His only political ideology is Trump. Why do you think he has been a republican -- and then a democrat -- and then a republican again? Why do you think he criticizes every active leader, and every competitor? Why do you think he's quick to change his view and have general historical inconsistencies which he blatantly denies (Clinton is doing a phenomenal job -- she's the worst; I support the war -- I never did; I voted for Bush -- I didn't vote for Bush; etc etc)? His only consistency is personal benefit. So that he always sounds right and he is always the one who knows best.
 
more food for thought:

In March, Paxton was interviewed by DemocracyNow about whether or not Trump was a fascist. From February to March, Paxton’s views on Trump changed some. While Paxton still felt that there were “great differences between Trump and fascism,” Paxton also said that Trump shows “a rather alarming willingness to use fascist themes and fascist styles.” And Paxton worried that Trump “would indeed take some kind of nonconstitutional action [in the event of a deadlock with Congress], and people would be afraid to say no.” But Paxton thought that the lack of a blackshirted militia fighting “in the streets” kept Trump and his movement from being actual fascism.

If Paxton is worried that Trump might take “nonconstitutional action,” and if he sees Trump using fascist themes and styles, then it seems like Paxton may be suggesting that Trump is very nearly a fascist without saying so outright.

In 1998, Paxton wrote an article titled the “Five Stages of Fascism” in which he identified five stages that fascism moves through as it matures (or, in most cases, doesn’t). The five stages are

(
1) the initial creation of fascist movements; (2) their rooting as parties in a political system; (3) the acquisition of power; (4) the exercise of power, and, finally, in the longer term, (5) radicalization or entropy.

Paxton writes that Stage One fascist movements can arise “wherever democracy is sufficiently implanted to have aroused disillusion,” and that a wide variety of ideologies have the potential to become proto-fascist movements. He points out that there are at least two prior examples of similar movements in the US already – the KKK in the post-Civil War South and the Silver Shirts of William Dudley Pelley. And as for people who claim that the United States should be immune to the ravages of fascism, Paxton has this to say:

Since fascisms take their first steps in reaction to claimed failings of democracy, it is not surprising that they should appear first in the most precocious democracies, the United States and France (emphasis added)

Paxton points out, however, that while proto-fascist movements are relatively common, few last enough to transition to Stage Two. He writes that those that do successfully transition all have similar national conditions:
the weakness of a liberal state, whose inadequacies seems to condemn the nation to disorder, decline, or humiliation; and political deadlock because the Right, the heir to power but unable to continue to wield it alone, refuses to accept a growing Left as a legitimate governing partner.

This describes state of the US federal government ever Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America,” and government dysfunction has become especially apparent since Barack Obama’s took office and the Republican Party decided to oppose nearly everything Obama wanted to accomplish.

This means that Trump, who meets enough of Paxton’s criteria to qualify as a Stage One proto-fascist, has taken the reins of a Republican Party at the exact moment when conditions are ripe for him and his most fervent supporters to transition into Stage Two.

And if Trump wins the presidency of the United States, he will have progressed into Stage Two – rooting the movement in a political system – and will be well started on Stage Three – the acquisition of power, specifically by way of cooperation with the traditional elites. After all, most of the traditional Republicans who failed to defeat Trump have slowly come around to support him.

Finally, Paxton points out that, so far, fascists haven’t come to power via a coup d’etat, because coups alienate the very elites that fascists need in order to actually acquire and then retain political power. He writes that both Hitler and Mussolini were “invited to take office as head of government” by conservative heads of state who saw an alliance with the fascists as a way to stop the growing power of the Left.

Given how closely Trump matches up with Paxton’s definition of fascism, there’s little question that Trump and his most fervent supporters meet the definition of a Stage One proto-fascist movement.

Paxton has one last important thing to say about the stages of fascism:

The right questions to ask of today’s neo- or protofascisms are those appropriate for the second and third stages of the fascist cycle. Are they becoming rooted as parties that represent major interests and feelings and wield major influence on the political scene? Is the economic or constitutional system in a state of blockage apparently insoluble by existing authorities? Is a rapid political mobilization threatening to escape the control of traditional elites, to the point where they would be tempted to look for tough helpers in order to stay in charge? It is by answering those kinds of questions… that we may be able to recognize our own day’s functional equivalents of fascism.
If we answer those questions with respect to Trump, the answers are clearly yes, yes, and yes. In other words, Trump and his fervent supporters have the opportunity to transition from a Paxton-defined proto-fascism to full-fledged fascism if they are not stopped.

https://scholarsandrogues.com/2016/08/24/donald-trump-is-a-fascist-part-six/
 
i refined my earlier post based off your later post which didn't appear until after i posted.

i find the article much more persuasive than i find your posts.

complains about someone being dismissive

is dismissive when that person returns immediately with more substance.

that's a helpful response, thanks for the discussion. :rolleyes:



hope this clarifies.
 
To say he has a political ideology is giving him far more credit than he deserves. His only political ideology is Trump.

this. he's not smart enough or consistent enough to be a true fascist. full stop.

real fascists are smart and are licking their chops at the idea that people are getting comfortable with 50% of the nation voting for "a fascist". this shit needs to stop.
 
Or this?

How Half Of America Lost Its F**king Mind

Look, I get it that small towns and rural communities are economically struggling, and they feel ignored and out of place with the "liberal elite" and the "establishment" (aka Washington DC). They must have a lot of hopelessness in them to side with Trump, who is only exploiting them for his personal, narcissistic gain. But it is downright scary to see so many Americans be willing to resort to violence, or even ignore the fact that violence is at hand. I'm scared for the future of this country. That long awaited second Civil War? It's at hand, no doubt.
 
Sadly, tons of his supporters are, as they're willingly conned by Trump.

Some days I'm maddened by this, others I'm saddened. It angers me because they've been warned time and time again and they decide to cover their ears like a child. It saddens me when today I see someone on Facebook who's not your typical "libtards" and "Killery" type of conservative post this very sincere post about how he truly believes Trump will do the things he's said and that it will be a landslide because everyone he's met that hasn't voted before is planning on voting this year and and voting for him. I just don't understand how one can be that isolated from reality in 2016.
 
i'm aware of what posts i was talking about, thanks.

i again note a lack of any attempt at responding to what i actually said.



i did respond, and the article i then posted supports my point:

This means that Trump, who meets enough of Paxton’s criteria to qualify as a Stage One proto-fascist, has taken the reins of a Republican Party at the exact moment when conditions are ripe for him and his most fervent supporters to transition into Stage Two.

it's in process. that's my response to your point. i think your understanding is blinkered.

we also can't pretend as if this hasn't been a legitimate topic of discussion for months and months in serious news outlets and amongst serious scholars. we can have different conclusions, but to act like the suggestion is preposterous on it's face is pretty dismissive.
 
i did respond, and the article i then posted supports my point:







it's in process. that's my response to your point. i think your understanding is blinkered.



we also can't pretend as if this hasn't been a legitimate topic of discussion for months and months in serious news outlets and amongst serious scholars. we can have different conclusions, but to act like the suggestion is preposterous on it's face is pretty dismissive.


I know I'm kind of hanging on the edge of your guys' conversation here, but I don't think it's *preposterous*. There are some little check marks that are suggestive. I just think its legitimizing Donald Trump [as a fascist]. He's politically illegitimate, and has never had a political ideology. It's shortsighted to suggest he has one now.
 
Some days I'm maddened by this, others I'm saddened. It angers me because they've been warned time and time again and they decide to cover their ears like a child. It saddens me when today I see someone on Facebook who's not your typical "libtards" and "Killery" type of conservative post this very sincere post about how he truly believes Trump will do the things he's said and that it will be a landslide because everyone he's met that hasn't voted before is planning on voting this year and and voting for him. I just don't understand how one can be that isolated from reality in 2016.

I'm trying to be compassionate towards these people because it is the only way to keep me sane. Like I said in an earlier post, I get it that economically things are not good for people in small towns. Hence why there's an opioid/heroin epidemic in so many small towns. These people feel lost, and like the Germans in the 1930s who lost their national confidence and were economically ruined, they needed a voice to listen to, and that was Hitler. I know, I know, the comparison between Trump and Hitler are getting tiresome, but it is a fact.

I think people's hatred for Hillary has more to do than her corrupt ways. It has more to do with what she represents. She represents immigration, pro-choice, gun regulations, globalization, etc. Everything small-town America is against.

I do agree that there is an intellectual vacuum going on in this country, and my theory is that it is linked to the Red Scare where anything that sounded remotely liberal or communist was considered un-American. Remember, the pledge of allegiance did not have "under God" until the 1940s as a result of the spread of communism, so hence the idea that not being a person of faith - more specifically a Christian - coincided with not being a true American.

OK, I am just rambling now. I ought to blog about all this rather than ramble on FYM. But I am scared for the future of my country, so much so that I feel sick.
 
well i do have a degree in 20th century european history, so i kinda feel like i have some knowledge of what i'm talking about beyond "average joe" level here.

i fully disagree that just because some of his preposterous claims of what he's going to do if he wins overlap somewhat with other political groups, that you can just slap those other groups' labels on trump (or couch them as neo-/proto-whatever) and call it a day. sure, blaming the nation's problems on foreigners and rounding up groups of people and making them second-class citizens or deporting them is definitely totalitarian (and indeed fascist too, but violent xenophobia is of course not at all unique to fascism).

but that's like calling sanders an outright communist because he says he wants universal healthcare and ignoring all the other - far more fundamental - tenets of communism that he wants nothing to do with. last i checked bernie sanders didn't call for agrarian collectivization or price fixing on all consumer goods, which are also to be sold in state-run stores.

this kind of hyperbole is just plain lazy.

trump is just a fucking blowhard saying shit he knows is going to outrage people and get clicks/eyeballs, *because* extremists also hold those beliefs. the only thing donald trump believes in is donald trump. if today he found out that promising to seize the means of production and converting america to a fully planned economy would get him elected, there's no doubt he'd say it tomorrow. does that make him all of a sudden an automatic communist the day after he was a fascist? no, of course it doesn't. that just makes him a gaping populist asshole who will say literally anything for votes.
 
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58177a15150000d804530d10.jpeg




If Trump somehow wins

This is why it happened.


The legalization of gay marriage opened up a lot of doors for republicans.
 
RCP projection has it down to one state, Florida

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

and they predict a Clinton win there by one 1.5%

who would have ever thought win the Democrats having what Obama called the best qualified ever to run for President against what MSM, the Dems are calling the worst candidate ever, with the last GOP candidate Romney, and the last two GOP presidents coming out and voting for Hillary, well Bush team is and Romney has done everything in his power, and some finances to defeat Trump

and we are down to one state?? with only a 1.5% lead for the best candidate ever against the worst candidate ever
 
RCP projection has it down to one state, Florida

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

and they predict a Clinton win there by one 1.5%

who would have ever thought win the Democrats having what Obama called the best qualified ever to run for President against what MSM, the Dems are calling the worst candidate ever, with the last GOP candidate Romney, and the last two GOP presidents coming out and voting for Hillary, well Bush team is and Romney has done everything in his power, and some finances to defeat Trump

and we are down to one state?? with only a 1.5% lead for the best candidate ever against the worst candidate ever

It's always Florida, ain't it?
 
well i do have a degree in 20th century european history, so i kinda feel like i have some knowledge of what i'm talking about beyond "average joe" level here.

i fully disagree that just because some of his preposterous claims of what he's going to do if he wins overlap somewhat with other political groups, that you can just slap those other groups' labels on trump (or couch them as neo-/proto-whatever) and call it a day. sure, blaming the nation's problems on foreigners and rounding up groups of people and making them second-class citizens or deporting them is definitely totalitarian (and indeed fascist too, but violent xenophobia is of course not at all unique to fascism).

but that's like calling sanders an outright communist because he says he wants universal healthcare and ignoring all the other - far more fundamental - tenets of communism that he wants nothing to do with. last i checked bernie sanders didn't call for agrarian collectivization or price fixing on all consumer goods, which are also to be sold in state-run stores.

this kind of hyperbole is just plain lazy.

trump is just a fucking blowhard saying shit he knows is going to outrage people and get clicks/eyeballs, *because* extremists also hold those beliefs. the only thing donald trump believes in is donald trump. if today he found out that promising to seize the means of production and converting america to a fully planned economy would get him elected, there's no doubt he'd say it tomorrow. does that make him all of a sudden an automatic communist the day after he was a fascist? no, of course it doesn't. that just makes him a gaping populist asshole who will say literally anything for votes.

trying to stay out of this one, and want to thank you as someone that has a strong left tilt for being able to set aside that bias with some objectivity here


it just seems to me the left is so desperate to stick any deplorable label on Trump to sway a few independents in a close election that facts don't matter,
a point in mind calling Bernie a communist, nonsense,

to try and taint Trump with Nazism, which many writers have done could not stick, I have seen this used with Dems in the past and have considered it desperation also,

So Nazism won't fly?

Next, let's write convoluted articles to get the Fascist label (Mussolini, Hitlers no 1 ally) to stick next best distortion :up:
 
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It's always Florida, ain't it?


seems so, if Hillary wins it, I hope it is by 3+ % or more, same if Trump wins, we don't need 2000 all over again

and if she wins, it will really be all over for Trump, the other roads to victory are not really plausible, the rest of the excitement? will be the Senate races and most of the close ones are on the mid-west plus NV.
 
At what hour does everyone believe the election will be called?

There's a big watch party here in Leicester at a local pub, running until 5 AM (11 PM EST I believe). Could be around that time it gets called, IMO. Whenever 2012 was called though, I forgot. I feel like that was more like 9 PM.

edit: seems like 2012 was at 11 PM when it was called
 
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So then how should one define him?

an unorthodox populist, taking on the insider politics of both parties with a right/ GOP tilt



somewhat like William Jefferson Clinton, he challenged the left of his party, with a clean break from Dukakis, Mondale, Kennedy more left leaning policies,


I do realize many of you were not adults during the 90s and don't remember it first hand, and the Clinton's are whitewashing it for the younger, Bernie, BLM crowd

here is a link

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democrats
 
RCP projection has it down to one state, Florida

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

and they predict a Clinton win there by one 1.5%

who would have ever thought win the Democrats having what Obama called the best qualified ever to run for President against what MSM, the Dems are calling the worst candidate ever, with the last GOP candidate Romney, and the last two GOP presidents coming out and voting for Hillary, well Bush team is and Romney has done everything in his power, and some finances to defeat Trump

and we are down to one state?? with only a 1.5% lead for the best candidate ever against the worst candidate ever

I know this is the "talk" out there. But i really don't think it's going to come down to one state. I will concede OH, and probably IA. But I really think she is going to get PA, NH, NC, NV, and FL and the dominos will fall in a bigger way than is being portrayed at the moment. At least i hope.

I think there are demographic stats that are pointing to a larger victory in FL and elsewhere for Clinton. As of 11/2 in Florida, 170,000 more hispanics have voted early, than the total number that voted early in 2012.

and then the TargetSmart survey that had 28% of early voting Republicans, casting their vote for Clinton.

I think we will be in for some surprises on Tuesday.
 
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At what hour does everyone believe the election will be called?

There's a big watch party here in Leicester at a local pub, running until 5 AM (11 PM EST I believe). Could be around that time it gets called, IMO. Whenever 2012 was called though, I forgot. I feel like that was more like 9 PM.

edit: seems like 2012 was at 11 PM when it was called

Florida polls close at 7PM eastern. 7:30 in North Carolina.
Upwards of 70% of all votes will be cast in FL before Tuesday, and probably half in NC. Which means there will be a large enough sample of votes that they can almost instantly project the winner.

If Clinton gets both those states (and NH & PA), thats it. Early night.
 
Take it with a grain of salt, as it's Fox, but Brett Baier is more Megyn Kelly than Sean Hannity when it comes to reliability



FBI Sources Tell Fox News An "Indictment Is Likely" In Clinton Foundation Case | Video | RealClearPolitics


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here's that grain of salt:

Fox News' Bret Baier apologizes for 'mistake' in Clinton Foundation report
By KELSEY SUTTON 11/04/16 01:29 PM EDT
Fox News reporter and anchor Bret Baier, who hosts “Special Report” on the cable channel, apologized Friday for reporting that indictments were “likely” in an ongoing investigation into Clinton Foundation investigation, adding that the reports were a mistake.

“All the time, but especially in a heated election on a topic this explosive, every word matters — no matter how well-sourced,” Baier told Fox News’ Jon Scott in the Friday broadcast of “Happening Now.” "Which brings me to this: I explained a couple of times yesterday the phrasing of one of my answers to [Fox News host] Brit Hume on Wednesday night, saying it was inartful the way I answered [a] question about whether the investigations would continue after the election. And I answered that, yes, our sources said it would, they would continue to likely an indictment. Well that wasn't just inartful. It was a mistake. And for that, I’m sorry.”
Baier apologized for the use of the word “indictment,” but said he and the network stand by their reporting.

“‘Indictment’ is obviously a very loaded word, Jon, especially in this atmosphere, and no one knows if there would or would not be an indictment, no matter how strong investigators feel their evidence is. ... We stand by the sourcing on the ongoing, active investigation into the Clinton Foundation and are working to get sources with knowledge of the details on the record and on camera, hopefully today.”


Fox News' Bret Baier apologizes for 'mistake' in Clinton Foundation report - POLITICO
 
RCP projection has it down to one state, Florida

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

and they predict a Clinton win there by one 1.5%

who would have ever thought win the Democrats having what Obama called the best qualified ever to run for President against what MSM, the Dems are calling the worst candidate ever, with the last GOP candidate Romney, and the last two GOP presidents coming out and voting for Hillary, well Bush team is and Romney has done everything in his power, and some finances to defeat Trump

and we are down to one state?? with only a 1.5% lead for the best candidate ever against the worst candidate ever

In the case of Nevada and NC, the map is just going off of polling from 3 days ago and isn't taking into account early voting. All signs point to a Nevada win for Clinton and she has a decent lead in North Carolina despite a smaller than anticipated impact by blacks. Obama is campaigning for her there today, we'll see if that makes a difference in stirring up black enthusiasm.

Those states make winning Florida a luxury.
 
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