The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Like I said some members of the forum are Grievance Merchants playing Social Justice Bingo.

I'm not attacking you so don't play the victim. We can a sociological conversation without you assuming I'm an ass grabbing scoundrel.

You know this comes from a place of respect; but please stop equating this with "social justice" and 8th grade locker room talk. Even Bob had the conscience to speak against it, even if it was for only 10 seconds.

I'll just leave it at that, I've edited the rest...


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[Axver]

Oh geez, this thread is a dumpster fire and I really don't feel like trying to engage with the last sixty or so posts.

But are there really still people who think Trump's sexual assault remarks "only" described (disgusting, condemnable) hypothetical situations? He doesn't talk in hypotheticals; he describes actual things he has done. Fucking. Hell. People.

Also, I have literally never spoken with any man who talks like this, in or out of locker rooms, scummy pubs, behind classrooms, etc. I was once a horny teenage boy, but holy shit everything we ever fantasised about had the basic assumption of consent.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by deep

Trump wants to make America great again
Hillary wants to make America Mexico

Ohhhhhhh! Good one!

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Trump supporters are the new counter-culture on campus. Dunham and Ferrell will get trolled hard.

White power isn't counter culture.

[BEAL]

Two police officers killed in my home town last night, and 90% of the comments blame Obama and Clinton

Another 5% respond to those people, and the last 5% hope that the killer isn't just brought to justice, but all rules off the table, brutally murder him/her

I think the best course of action for this country is to ban the internet for a while. Time to go back to written word.

Seriously though, when did our feelings matter more than anything else in society?


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[Headache in a Suitcase]

If this does indeed become a tight race in the final week, two things will matter most.

Early voting.
Ground game.

One candidate has an advantage in both categories.

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

Early voting.

.

Which will lead to Orange Donnie getting some traction with a section of the populace with his "rigged" claim, as early voting was open for a while before Comey's announcement about investigating Hillary's Weiner.

This will likely be the last we see of early voting in a presidential election.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The study authors sum it up:

Between 1978 to 1998, the mortality rate for U.S. whites aged 45 to 54 fell by 2 percent per year on average, which matched the average rate of decline in the six countries shown, and the average over all other industrialized countries. After 1998, other rich countries’ mortality rates continued to decline by 2 percent a year. In contrast, U.S. white non-Hispanic mortality rose by half a percent a year. No other rich country saw a similar turnaround.

That means “half a million people are dead who should not be dead,” Angus Deaton, the 2015 Nobel laureate in economics and co-author of the paper, told The Washington Post. “About 40 times the Ebola stats. You’re getting up there with HIV-AIDS.”

The reasons for the increased death rate are not the usual things that kill Americans, like diabetes and heart disease. Rather, it’s suicide, alcohol and drug poisonings, and alcohol-related liver disease.

The least-educated are worst off: All-cause mortality among middle-aged Americans with a high-school degree or less increased by 134 deaths per 100,000 people between 1999 and 2013, but there was little change in mortality for people with some college. The death rate for the college-educated fell slightly.

This is a report from 2015, but I saw it brought up again on Morning Joe recently.

A country doesn't turn to authoritarianism because of a charismatic leader (or orange con man buffoon). It turns out of desperation. And there are a lot of desperate people in middle America.

15 years of life expectancy dropping.

And it's largely ignored.

Except by the far wing of the Republican party, that is.

This is where the increase in xenophobia and racism comes from. Where the Trump support comes from. And it's not going away when this orange faced dickhead loses next week.

The Democrats need to recognize this and do something about it, while not losing the course on social progress at the same time. They can't allow this demographic to continue to slip towards the far right, because as we see this year, the results can be downright terrifying.

It's the number one thing that Clinton will need to do in her first year to help bring this country back together. What could happen if we continue to ignore it and allow the far right to take hold is absolutely frightening.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by Hewson

This will likely be the last we see of early voting in a presidential election.

If trends in other democracies mean anything, actually you'll see it keep going up and up. People hate the inconvenience of having to vote on election day. In today's "agile economy", to borrow a favoured term of Australia's Dear Leader, people want to vote when they want, not when you say. The early voting stats are truly extraordinary now in some countries, approaching a quarter and even a third of the entire turnout.

[gump]

Originally Posted by bono_212

I'm honestly not sure how you can look at her policies and come away with that opinion, IMO:

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/

Hell, she even has an outlined plan for Autism and Alzheimer's research, two very personal topics to me. Nevermind her long-standing post-secondary education plans, well-developed tax plan, immigration + gun control reform policies, dedication to preserving SSM, AND OF COURSE the fact that she's very likely going to get this country on the right side of women's health benefits.

Thank you. Seriously, this annoys the crap out of me. The false equivalency of "we have two equally bad candidates" is just an excuse not to vote. Nevermind that one of them is a proto-fascist: did undecideds who lean liberal ever moved past "OMG EMAILS!1!" and looked at actual policies? And then compared to whatever general ideas (I would never call them actual policies) Trump has advocated. But you know, she's a woman, so why would anyone pay attention to what she is actually saying or proposing?

[bono_212]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

This is a report from 2015, but I saw it brought up again on Morning Joe recently.

A country doesn't turn to authoritarianism because of a charismatic leader (or orange con man buffoon). It turns out of desperation. And there are a lot of desperate people in middle America.

15 years of life expectancy dropping.

And it's largely ignored.

Except by the far wing of the Republican party, that is.

This is where the increase in xenophobia and racism comes from. Where the Trump support comes from. And it's not going away when this orange faced dickhead loses next week.

The Democrats need to recognize this and do something about it, while not losing the course on social progress at the same time. They can't allow this demographic to continue to slip towards the far right, because as we see this year, the results can be downright terrifying.

It's the number one thing that Clinton will need to do in her first year to help bring this country back together. What could happen if we continue to ignore it and allow the far right to take hold is absolutely frightening.

The thing that upsets me most is that the policies of the democratic party do seem more in line with helping these people, but very rich, very loud members of society do a great job of painting it otherwise, taking advantage, and using their large and loud platform of scare tactics to ensure that the lower middle keeps voting for them, even if it's way out of their best interest.

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by Axver

If trends in other democracies mean anything, actually you'll see it keep going up and up. People hate the inconvenience of having to vote on election day. In today's "agile economy", to borrow a favoured term of Australia's Dear Leader, people want to vote when they want, not when you say. The early voting stats are truly extraordinary now in some countries, approaching a quarter and even a third of the entire turnout.

Oh, I see the advantages of the system, but I can guarantee there will be a hue and cry here from some because millions of votes were cast before the FBI announcement last week and they'll argue that those votes might have been cast in a more orange light had the voting not taken place until we See You Next Tuesday. Obviously the amount of voters who may have any remorse in this situation is negligible, but there will be folks who claim it is proof of a rigged system and it will be abandoned.

My sister has voted already, she told me that when she went to her Town Hall, a woman who waited in line behind her (for 15 minutes or so) left before actually voting when she got to the front of the line and saw there wasn't a police officer present to monitor the proceedings as had been advertised. There will be folks who think early voting is just another opportunity for corruption/fraud/whatever.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

If this does indeed become a tight race in the final week, two things will matter most.

Early voting.
Ground game.

One candidate has an advantage in both categories.

One candidate is getting 30% of the GOP early votes in Florida.

One candidate understands the issues and how government works and has policy positions closest to my values and priorities.

The other doesn't.

How is this hard? It's incredible how people allow themselves to be drawn into the weeds under the pretense of feeling smart because they read some internet blather that's precisely designed to make you, gentle reader, feel as if you are smart and shrewd and won't be told what to do.

We have a qualified candidate who understands the job. And we have a con man.

The shocking thing here is the degree to which people are willing to go to lie to themselves in order to justify voting for Trump.

This is the easiest election decision in my lifetime for any thinking person. Hillary could shoot someone dead on 5th Avenue and she would still be a better president than the man who anger tantrum tweets at 3am.

But go ahead. Do exactly what Putin wants. Vote for someone who wants to jail the opposition. It's the Russian thing to do.

[Diemen]

Originally Posted by deep

this is a true statement





it seems like when you see posts you don't favor often you just label it trolling



when there is a lot of real trolling by people agree with, that gets overlooked.

Hillary wants to make America Mexico. Democrats are openly encouraging voter fraud. Hillary's supporters are more dangerous and violent than Trump's.

Get over yourself, deep.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

We could have had it alllllll
Trolling in the deeeeeeeeep

[Irvine511]

Where does the troll end and the man begin?

One day we will be unable to distinguish ourselves from our avatars.

[gump]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

One candidate is getting 30% of the GOP early votes in Florida.

One candidate understands the issues and how government works and has policy positions closest to my values and priorities.

The other doesn't.

How is this hard? It's incredible how people allow themselves to be drawn into the weeds under the pretense of feeling smart because they read some internet blather that's precisely designed to make you, gentle reader, feel as if you are smart and shrewd and won't be told what to do.

We have a qualified candidate who understands the job. And we have a con man.

The shocking thing here is the degree to which people are willing to go to lie to themselves in order to justify voting for Trump.

This is the easiest election decision in my lifetime for any thinking person. Hillary could shoot someone dead on 5th Avenue and she would still be a better president than the man who anger tantrum tweets at 3am.

But go ahead. Do exactly what Putin wants. Vote for someone who wants to jail the opposition. It's the Russian thing to do.

Look, as much as I want Hillary to way, there is no way in hell she's getting the 28% of GOP Florida volters reported in that poll. It's such a clear outlier. Polling in NC and FL has systematically shown the usual 90-10 splits. I wouldn't give that specific individual result any deep thought.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

So let's talk facts. Facts are fun!

Nevada is one of the only states that release the party affiliation of early voters.

50,000 more votes have been cast by Democrats in Nevada as of last night than have been cast for Republicans.

In 2012 early voters were about 70% of all voters. Obama had a similar advantage at this point, and took the state by 7 points.

Barring something unforeseen, Nevada is going to go to Clinton.

Taking every battleground state out, this puts her at 264.

So Trump needs to win Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Utah and Arizona to even have a chance of winning.

[BigMacPhisto]

Originally Posted by deep

mini mini Brexit vote in Minn

Minnesota students pick Trump in first statewide mock election - StarTribune.com

For what it's wort, the math basically always had his best path to 269 or more at him winning a state like Wisconsin or Minnesota or Michigan, etc. He should have never spent a single second or dime in Pennsylvania.

[gump]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

So let's talk facts. Facts are fun!

Nevada is one of the only states that release the party affiliation of early voters.

50,000 more votes have been cast by Democrats in Nevada as of last night than have been cast for Republicans.

In 2012 early voters were about 70% of all voters. Obama had a similar advantage at this point, and took the state by 7 points.

Barring something unforeseen, Nevada is going to go to Clinton.

Taking every battleground state out, this puts her at 264.

So Trump needs to win Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Utah and Arizona to even have a chance of winning.

The problem, and my concern, is that the results in each state are not statistically independent. The so-called firewall quickly collapses in a close national race. If he wins Florida and North Carolina, it probably means that undecides are breaking in his direction more than expected in the polls; that makes it significantly more likely that he will be quite competitive in places like Colorado, Wisconsin or even Michigan.

Based on NC early voting, turnout doesn't seem to be a huge issue in terms of polling (i.e. early voting trends are confirming the assumptions on the composition of the electorate). It's really more about the undecideds and third party voters at this point.

Edit: by the way, Hillary is running a bit behind Obama 2012 in NV. Check this out: http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the...ly-voting-blog. It really depends on the next couple of days.