The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[deep]

We are just 4 days out, my head tells me Hillary should win, I have always believed that. My heart, is never in politics, emotions are poiltless,
But then I thought Gore would win in 2000,
But that election ended up being rigged in one state for sure and stolen. No one will ever convince me otherwise, I dont care if Jeb and K Harris pass a lie detector. They can believe they did not steal a national election, but they did.

 

[DaveC]

311-227

2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

 

[deep]

I have an idea. Let's have a little fun and do our predictions for November 8th. I think the most interesting would be to list out the swing/possible swing states and say who you think will end up winning it. Not sure if this should be a new thread or not, but if someone wants to do that, please do.

As of now I think states that could possibly fall into swing status are:

NV
AZ
UT
CO
IA
WI
MI
OH
PA
NH
NC
GA
FL
AK

Thats a LOT

My predictions are:

NV - C
AZ - C
UT - T
CO - C
IA - T
WI - C
MI - C
OH - T
PA - C
NH - C
NC - C
GA - T
FL - C
AK - T

My prediction: Clinton wins 334 to 204

you can use this map to tally your numbers

2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

have fun

Some of us said we would do this Monday
Im on an old phone, so I say more later, your predictions could happen

 

[BigMacPhisto]

My predictions:

NV - Trump
AZ - Trump
UT - Trump (Clinton finishes in third here)
CO - Clinton
IA - Trump (not even remotely a swing state in my mind)
WI - Clinton (not even remotely a swing state in my mind)
MI - Clinton (barely)
OH - Trump
PA - Clinton (won't be close at all)
NH - Clinton (very close)
NC - Trump
GA - Trump (again, not even remotely a swing state)
FL - Trump (I'm pretty damn certain about this. Were he to lose Florida, I doubt he has a shot in North Carolina, etc.)
AK - Trump (Pfft).

My final tally: Clinton wins 272 to 266. Trump ultimately can't make in-roads enough in Colorado or New Hampshire or Michigan to win this thing.

Republican Gains From 2012: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Maine district

My Map


I guess my scenario would entail recount hysteria given that NH would be the decider and I think it'll be close there.

 

[Danny Boy]

My prediction is that the result will be unpopular with 50% of the electorate.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

My prediction: Clinton wins 334 to 204

Your map is a little idiosyncratic thanks to Arizona. I really don't see that one falling out of Trump's favor unless he is getting shellacked which would likely entail him losing Ohio and Iowa as well. Theoretically, you figure all of the usual swing states would fall first before reliable red ones.

That's what makes Hillary's play for Arizona kind of ridiculous when there's razor thin margins in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida at the moment.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

My prediction is that the result will be unpopular with 50% of the electorate.

Well, higher than that since neither will clear the 50% mark and close to have the country likely won't even vote. I'm estimating turnout at 52% - a combination of disliked candidates and some Republican tactics to obstruct voting access.

1996 turnout: 49.0%
2000 turnout: 51.2%
2004 turnout: 56.7%
2008 turnout: 58.2%
2012 turnout: 54.9%

 

[Caleb8844]

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/794272236073058305

 

[BVS]

My prediction is that the result will be unpopular with 50% of the electorate.

We'll either hear a lot of: "rigged", "prison", "ain't takin me guns", and "Benghazi"

or

"Honey, I put in for a transfer to our Canadian branch. Start packing."


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[BigMacPhisto]

Trump now up from a 35% average in the three FiveThirtyEight trackers to 35.7%.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Hillary had BETTER win Iowa. I'm going to be so embarrassed for my state if she doesn't.

I actually went out and voted yesterday. Went down to our local courthouse and put in my ballot.

 

[DaveC]

yea fucking right. that's why you're almost always the first one in this thread to gleefully tell us about every point she loses ... cause you want him to lose so badly.

we're not as stupid in here as you think we are.

Trump now up from a 35% average in the three FiveThirtyEight trackers to 35.7%.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/794272236073058305

Definitely going to be newsworthy, and once again, harm Clinton. Going to take hours though before the media scrums through enough of this latest batch and figures out what's what.

Also, Assange just said Russia isn't responsible for the e-mail hacking. No state is, in fact. Said he wanted to clear the air surrounding that.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Let's do this

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Hillary had BETTER win Iowa. I'm going to be so embarrassed for my state if she doesn't.

It's pretty much guaranteed that Trump wins it. Not just based on the polling, but Iowas has infamously been the one state this year that didn't really bend to the national trends. In other words, bad shit for Trump suddenly meant states like Georgia were temporarily in play while Iowa remained pretty solid. I think the first in the nation status has a lot to do with that...they can get accustomed to the candidates being there all the time and then latch on to one depending on what their mood was...both Obama's victories there and now Trump's lead kind of defy where you would have expected that state to go based on its demographics.

FIveThirtyEight's model must be pretty confident in whomever is leading in a given state. Trump's odds of winning New Hampshire are basically identical to his odds of winning the entire thing. Kind of strange because the entire boat sinks, currently, if one of Nevada or Florida or North Carolina don't go his way and all three are practically coin flips.

It seems to me, if you are Trump, the only play left is to go at New Hampshire hard. In fact, if I were his campaign manager, I'd only have him hang out there, for the most part, over the remainder of this campaign. He either wins New Hampshire and the election or he doesn't. It's a small state, so you don't have to convince too many to vote for you, etc. There is absolutely no reason Trump should set foot in Colorado, Michigan or Wisconsin for the rest of this thing. New Hampshire is far, far more likely to budge.

I would've gone with this same strategy in 2004 in retrospect. Kerry should have just hung out in Ohio the entire time and rolled the dice. Yeah, maybe it would have fucked him in another state or whatever, but without Ohio he was toast.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Let's do this

Ah, the super-Clintonista map minus Nevada.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Trump trails in the standard FiveThirtyEight model by 2.9 points. That is basically the margin between Romney and Obama on election day a year ago as the polls were off by a point (Obama won by 3.9).

Reason why Trump's odds are better despite the same national gap is because he under performs in red and blue states and is doing far better in swing states. It'll be interesting to see if he can narrow the national margin in FiveThirtyEight's model to 2 points as that would make the race pretty much a toss-up and start putting states like Colorado and New Hampshire firmly in play.

 

[Irvine511]

the Latinos will save us all.

 

[BVS]

the Latinos will save us all.

But Trump loves taco bowls :cheese:


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[LuckyNumber7]

Ah, the super-Clintonista map minus Nevada.

Piss off. Get your bullshit branding out of here.

I swear you only write shit on this forum and don't bother to read anything anyone else says. To think I'm some mega-Clinton-supporter is a fucking joke. You're oblivious. Sorry, but my understanding is this going to be a landslide, and much like 2012 there's a media perpetuated "close race" because that's the interest of said media. I don't think it'll be close at all. I don't think those people who normally don't vote (the ones rallied by Trump) are going to show up. I don't think many republicans are going to show up. Polls only show opinion, not ability. Enthusiasm is low. Anti-Trump sentiment is higher than anti-Clinton sentiment. It's the next best thing after enthusiasm.

Heck, even if Trump were to win, I don't think it would be close. Either he's got a lot of closeted voter support, or people aren't going to actually go through with it.

 

[Irvine511]

Sorry, but my understanding is this going to be a landslide, and much like 2012 there's a media perpetuated "close race" because that's the interest of said media. I don't think it'll be close at all.

i believe in panic, fear, and bed wetting. we should be scared. we are literally facing an apocalypse, an extinction-level event that may actually threaten the continued existence of life on earth.

but my sneaking suspicion, my heart of hearts, says that the above is absolutely correct.

 

[Irvine511]

to me, this is the real tragedy of 2016, and we see it reflected in the posts of people who have no excuse not to know better:

It’s important to understand that strong institutions are what separate strong democracies from weak ones. In a strong democracy, one party can’t come into power and just lock up its opponents. It can’t turn the country’s law enforcement agencies into a partisan tool to destroy the other party. It can’t say that the courts will function only at its pleasure. We have the world’s most stable system not just because there aren’t tanks in the streets on election day, but because we have institutions that are strong enough to restrain the venality of individual men and women. And now, Republicans are not even pretending that those institutions should be impartial and transcend partisanship. They’re saying, if we can use them to destroy our opponents, we will. Something is seriously breaking down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...al-war-and-the-consequences-could-be-immense/

i'm feeling much less charitable than last week. this particular stripe of Republican must be politically destroyed.

 

[BVS]

I do have a small amount of fear, by either outcome really. I fear violence if she wins, although small isolated events. But if he wins... I see a child that will flex his power as soon as he can, and results will be like a toddler playing with matches.


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[Mrs. Garrison]

 

[LemonMelon]

It'll be closer than I'd like, but not that close.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I do have a small amount of fear, by either outcome really. I fear violence if she wins, although small isolated events. But if he wins... I see a child that will flex his power as soon as he can, and results will be like a toddler playing with matches.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

I dunno. I feared Obama would be attacked during his acceptance or his inauguration speech. Didn't happen. 8 years and the worst we got was people being arrested for talking about it/plotting online.

 

[deep]

It'll be closer than I'd like, but not that close.

of all the maps posted

this one is probably closer to what will occur,

there seems to be a lot of wishing going into some maps, going against what 538 is predicting and all along he has been underestimating Trump tallies

so this map most likely has 48, 49 or 50 called right,

does anyone want to put up one of the other maps against it?


edit to say, that map is not close?? that is one state, Florida
and if it is like Florida 2000, God help us all!!!

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I'll put my landslide up against it. Trump will probably take Georgia, that was just thrown in as a hopeful "I want to see him obliterated."

 

[gump]

If we are doing predictions...

Not confident about NC at all, but she could still lose it and get 274 EV. NV is so key.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

I think violence is far more likely if Trump is elected than the other way around. I could see the black community in inner cities going off-the-chain about it all which is kind of odd since Trump probably did more to marginalize every other community in the country other than theirs, but given the fact that virtually all of the black community will have voted for Clinton, etc. I could see there being some anger over his election. If they're going to regularly have riots when all the facts aren't in about a single police shooting of a young black man, then why not have one when some epic creep is elected President?

It's just a hypothetical, anyway, since Clinton is likely to win. There probably would have been a severe backlash on the streets if Obama had lost in 2008, I suspect.