The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV - Page 15 - U2 Feedback

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Old 10-31-2016, 08:37 AM   #281
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For those who want to see Clinton defeat Trump (and don't have a third party candidate to back)... can we all just save old Clinton criticisms until the day after the election? She's free game after that.

But Donald Trump is her opponent, and Gary Johnson decided to be the cool blazer-and-jeans wearing dad who is all for legalizing pot instead of taking his opportune candidacy seriously. Digging up old shit = misguided right now.
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Old 10-31-2016, 09:35 AM   #282
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Own it Hillbots
Aside from the absurd and factually incorrect and the ones that are unrelated to Hillary Clinton, I have no issue saying I support the TPP, NAFTA and GMOs.
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Old 10-31-2016, 09:55 AM   #283
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Own it Hillbots
[request #5,689,364 for blown-up eyeroll smiley.]
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:02 AM   #284
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Aside from the absurd and factually incorrect and the ones that are unrelated to Hillary Clinton, I have no issue saying I support the TPP, NAFTA and GMOs.

But GMOs aren't vague and not natural so they must not be okay!!!111!!1one!!
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Old 10-31-2016, 11:12 AM   #285
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I'm worn out on the Clintons. Have been from start, but no one ran against her.

And like others, I was on board with Bernie very early on. I loved the socialist aspects of his proposals. Universal healthcare, stronger reform on the financial / private sector. Etc etc

But then Trump happened and Bernie's specifics for his plans left a lot to be desired, what little specifics he gave.

So I decided to throw my support 100% behind Clinton. She is as qualified as one can get for this position. And again, she's running against Trump, who has done nothing but bring out the WORST our society and nation has to offer.

As a liberal and fearing the worst under W, I survived....all 8 years. Conservatives have managed 8 years of Obama, and they'll survive 4 years of Clinton

But instead of getting their act together, they continue to obstruct and be dicks to the office and to us as a nation. It's self fulfilling prophecy on their part. Do nothing so you can complain nothing gets done.

Maybe in 2020 they'll throw someone up like a Bloomberg who I think would do really, really well. And someone I'd even consider once I'd see his proposals and ideas.

But yeah, not with a giant Orange predator lurking


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Old 10-31-2016, 01:02 PM   #286
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Jesus Christ this is a terrible day of polling for Clinton so far...within the margin of error nationally from many different firms and even within the margin of error for Pennsylvania and Colorado.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest Polls

If this really is indicative of a trend, god help us all.
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Old 10-31-2016, 01:18 PM   #287
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Aww, I didn't think I would have to start searching for real estate in Canada.
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Old 10-31-2016, 01:35 PM   #288
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it's such a shame that this time around the winner is being determined by the national popular vote and that national polling is relevant at all.

who cares about a straight up national poll at this point. it's as useless a statistic as pitcher wins in baseball.
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:08 PM   #289
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Sure, but the states themselves move according to the national polling, so it is relevant in that regard.

Also, Donna Brazile is the worst.
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:28 PM   #290
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This is the most likely map for a Trump victory given the current dynamics and unfortunately, it's actually probable.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Jlbkd

Trump wins Romney states + Iowa + Ohio + Florida + North Carolina + Nevada + Colorado.

Only Colorado is currently a little far out of his grasp based on polling. He leads in Iowa/Ohio and is very close in Florida/North Carolina/Nevada.

No Virginia or Pennsylvania needed although the latter is right behind Colorado in terms of flipping based on the polling. Obviously, any scenario where he's close in Pennsylvania means we're in for a wild ride next week. If he were to actually win that state, I'd say it's guaranteed he has won the election as so many easier dominoes will have already fallen.

I left the district in Maine in there as going to Trump although it doesn't affect the total much or his chances (since it's just 1 point). I imagine he handily wins that district in any scenario where he gets a bunch of the above states (and FiveThirtyEight, right now, has him narrowly winning there).

Colorado is clearly the tipping point state. There is basically no scenario at the moment where it isn't the one that sends a candidate over the 270 mark. There's potentially a path or two for Trump without it, but for Clinton it's basically a guaranteed loss if she can't win Colorado as that would entail a national scene where she's already losing Florida, Ohio, etc.
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:31 PM   #291
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I don't see Trump winning Florida. The Hispanic vote is too significant.
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:36 PM   #292
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I don't see Trump winning Florida. The Hispanic vote is too significant.
Supposedly, that vote has been exceeding previous vote totals in many swing states and well educated areas are doing the same - both a boon to Clinton.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...rnout-is-down/

Unfortunately, blacks are the most important group of all since they actually have a huge impact on so many swing states (Latinos and Asians are cluttered heavily in deep blue and relatively deep red states like California and Texas) and black turnout is down significantly in early voting. Yes, no black President to re-elect, but if that trend continues, we're in for a lot of nailbiters across the swing states.

As far as Florida is concerned, Obama barely won it last time (and I mean barely) and anybody who has been there knows that it's probably the nation's capital for white trailer trash. If overall turnout drops a few points from 2012, the fundamentals are going to favor Trump. If he already leads the state based on that and recent polling, it should only get easier with this latest e-mail business as 3 in 10 voters say it will actually affect their decision with virtually all of them saying they are less likely to vote for Clinton. That could be huge. And even if it does turn out to be insignificant in the voter's minds, it's still going to give Trump the advantageous trend line throughout this final week.
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:38 PM   #293
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Memba when Romney was closing the gap with Obama in the last week, too? Memba Romney? Memba?
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:06 PM   #294
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but no one ran against her.
Which was a deal Bill struck with the DNC 8 yrs ago. Have Obama appoint her to the cabinet to pad her resume and nobody of any significance opposes her in 2016, and they fall in line supporting Obama in 08 and 12.
Sanders provided a fairly strong primary test, but lest we forget, he was (and is again)an independent prior to opposing her.

The Clinton machine at work.
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:08 PM   #295
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Memba when Romney was closing the gap with Obama in the last week, too? Memba Romney? Memba?
But in terms of the electoral models, Romney was never this close in the final weeks. Trump has a 1 in 4 chance in 538's model, which ... holy shit. Obama ended up with a 90% likelihood of winning in 2012 in the same model.

Part of the reason is that the demographic coalitions makes Trump overperform in key swing states that were safer for Obama, whereas Hillary is outperforming in states that she is bound to lose anyways. And part of it is the uncertainty of this race (still too many undecideds).

The trend is pretty scary. I think she will still win, but this is not close to Obama-Romney. Plus, the 2012 election didn't really threaten American democracy and international peace and security as much as this one.
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:20 PM   #296
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Plus, the 2012 election didn't really threaten American democracy and international peace and security as much as this one.
Well, those Mormons can be pretty aggressive folks, so who's to say.
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:36 PM   #297
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one thing for certain

Hillary really is crooked, she got debate questions in advance, never said, I don't think this is fair or right, with the Clintons and their avid supporters, it seems the ends always justifies the means

and I do expect some, roll eyes and yawns
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:37 PM   #298
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In the meantime:

FBI's Comey opposed naming Russians, citing election timing: Source

Quote:
According to the former official, Comey agreed with the conclusion the intelligence community came to: "A foreign power was trying to undermine the election. He believed it to be true, but was against putting it out before the election." Comey's position, this official said, was "if it is said, it shouldn't come from the FBI, which as you'll recall it did not."
Sure, but let's talk about EMAILS!
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:43 PM   #299
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Jesus Christ this is a terrible day of polling for Clinton so far...within the margin of error nationally from many different firms and even within the margin of error for Pennsylvania and Colorado.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest Polls

If this really is indicative of a trend, god help us all.
and with this she should lose for sure,


this whole election cycle, all the polls have over predicted her numbers, RCP and 538, they have been wrong on her by 3-5 % and underestimated her opposition

and with Trump these same polls sites, RCP and 538 have been wrong on Trump, underestimating his results by about 5%

all that said, with their record this election cycle, when the polls close, Trump getg more votes than they predicted and Hillary gets less



unless it's rigged
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Old 10-31-2016, 03:48 PM   #300
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Keep in mind that those state polls from today in NC/Pennsylvania/Colorado are from Remington Research, which apparently is a Republican polling firm, so results are probably a bit skewed.
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