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Old 05-09-2012, 03:14 PM   #441
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Opposition to same sex marriage also generally tracks support for conservative policies in general. I am unpersuaded that a meaningful/substantial volume of single-issue voters exist for Obama to lose.
really? NC is a toss up state, most polls show Obama with a 2 point lead.

last night NC went 22% against any gay rights, very disappointing

NC will be demonized in the coming months, these people will get defensive, just like the people in AZ did about there immigration law,

I am not saying the 61 - 39 vote last night will be the same in Nov

but if it moves 3, 4 or 5 points, not a big stretch, Obama loses
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:15 PM   #442
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Romney winning the 2012 election would be a disaster for LBGT rights, starting with the fact that this would probably result in Antonin Scalia being to the left of the median Supreme Court justice. Particularly since Obama has done pretty much all that is within his power to advance marriage equality in policy terms, if supporting same-sex marriage would make a Romney victory more likely, his unwillingness to openly support same-sex marriage is defensible (like LBJ's nominal pre-1957 opposition to civil rights).

But I don't think there's any reason to believe that Obama doing the right thing today will help Romney in November. It's important to remember that Obama and Romney were substantially different on gay and lesbian rights before this afternoon. To believe that Romney will benefit significantly from Obama's embrace of same-sex marriage rights, you would have to believe that there's a group of voters who 1) care enough about same-sex marriage to make it their top priority in a federal election, but 2) are willing to ignore Obama's pro-LBGT rights record as long as he doesn't nominally support same-sex marriage. The number of people who fit into this class is too trivial to be worth worrying about. It's likely that some-risk adverse advisers cited the argument that same-sex marriage cost John Kerry the election in 2004. But there's no evidence that this is true. Given that same-sex marriage is significantly more popular now than it was eight years ago, it's even more unlikely that same-sex marriage would damage Obama now.

Obama embracing same-sex marriage was the right thing to do, and there's no reason to believe that it will be politically damaging. Presidential elections generally don't turn on social issues and it's hard to imagine that 2012 will be an exception (even if we assume that Obama's position is a net negative, which is possible but hardly self-evident).
People I like because they agree with whatever my position was

edited to add

deep it sounds like you've achieved a second-order level of abstraction, which is getting a bit wispy (it's not the issue, it's the backlash to the issue). From my quoted article is a link to this article:

Quote:
The (logical) conclusion is that “moral values” and the gay marriage backlash played a key role in Bush’s victory.

Political scientists believe the exact opposite. In an article by Ansolabehere and Stewart III, appropriately titled, Moral values and the gay-marriage backlash did not help Bush, they argue that, the “Marriage referenda mobilized voters on both sides, not just the conservatives, and the net result may have been to John Kerry’s benefit.” Here are the facts from Ansolabehere and Stewart III:
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:19 PM   #443
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Ok, that's it. The world really is going to end this year.

Is that him swimming in the pool, getting ramped up for his war on marriage?

1. Bin Laden

2. Straight marriage

3. Christmas
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:22 PM   #444
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Also, Joe Biden gets hung out to dry a little, here. He's now more conservative than the President! heh.
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:22 PM   #445
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Here's another notch for Jon Stewart's list of examples of hypocrisy amongst conservatives.

"A war on women??? Ho ho, what a preposterous thing to suggest! A war. Pfft!"

"OBAMA HAS DECLARED WAR ON MARRIAGE!"

Get bent, you turkeys.
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:28 PM   #446
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:30 PM   #447
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Here's another notch for Jon Stewart's list of examples of hypocrisy amongst conservatives.

"A war on women??? Ho ho, what a preposterous thing to suggest! A war. Pfft!"

"OBAMA HAS DECLARED WAR ON MARRIAGE!"

Get bent, you turkeys.
This. That headline is rage inducing.
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:32 PM   #448
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The headline has conveniently been changed to "Obama flip flops on Gay Marriage" now. Of course.
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:35 PM   #449
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This is a major turning point in the history of American civil rights," said New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg. "No American president has ever supported a major expansion of civil rights that has not ultimately been adopted by the American people - and I have no doubt that this will be no exception. The march of freedom that has sustained our country since the Revolution of 1776 continues, and no matter what setbacks may occur in a given state, freedom will triumph over fear and equality will prevail over exclusion. Today's announcement is a testament to the President's convictions, and it builds on the courageous stands that so many Americans have taken over the years on behalf of equal rights for gay and lesbian Americans, stretching back to the Stonewall Inn in Greenwich Village."
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:43 PM   #450
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yeah, he could have said something later, if Biden did not blow this thing wide open.


you think? or was it all just more chess playing?

i have no idea.

it's nice. i'm glad he did this. as i just read somewhere, it's poetic that the first black president becomes the Abraham Lincoln of gay rights.

i think this is red meat for both the bases, however, in the places where it could really affect GOP turnout will likely be in states Obama was already going to lose. it won't change anyone's mind about Obama, it just inspires people for whom this issue is important to come out and vote. if NC and VA are close again, perhaps it is the difference. but this is also months in advance of
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Old 05-09-2012, 03:53 PM   #451
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you think? or was it all just more chess playing?

i have no idea.
I am looking at 3 different ways


1. Obama just did the right thing not the easy thing, better to be a one term-er with integrity, that a 2 term-er without a backbone.

2. this got away from him, his people were marching ahead without him,
better to run in front, as the leader.


3. this was planned and has been completely orchestrated, his crack team have done a lot of internal polling. This is his best and strongest move. The Ron Paul, libertarian supporters are the most passionate people in this years election, they have good numbers, and with a strong candidate like Gov Johnson from NM, they could be the deciders, just like the Green party supporters were in 2000. Obama makes his claim for the passionate youth vote, doesn't cede it to the Libertarian.
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Old 05-09-2012, 04:11 PM   #452
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Now the youth vote will have to decide whether this or legalized pot is more important!
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Old 05-09-2012, 04:24 PM   #453
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they know Johnson can't win
and Obama can
many said there is no difference between Gore and Bush
many say there is not much difference between Wall Street Obama and Wall Street Romney, well now there is one clear delineation.
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Old 05-09-2012, 04:26 PM   #454
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so here is the (one) list of toss-up states

Quote:
Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
I can see where pro gay marriage can hurt
and no real clear cases where it is a plus, except NH, some may say Iowa, but when the people vote
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...election_N.htm
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Old 05-09-2012, 04:32 PM   #455
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If Obama coming out for gay marriage is going to cost him this election, well we are more f'ed than we ever thought possible.
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Old 05-09-2012, 04:41 PM   #456
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Old 05-09-2012, 05:00 PM   #457
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When President Obama was born his parent's marriage was illegal in 22 states.

The world only spins forward.
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Old 05-09-2012, 05:20 PM   #458
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When President Obama was born his parent's marriage was illegal in 22 states.


we should remember this whenever people talk about the "will of the people" or "states rights" or "0-33."
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Old 05-09-2012, 05:23 PM   #459
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In N C it is legal to marry your first cousin, today.
As long as the cousins are opposite sex.
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Old 05-09-2012, 05:59 PM   #460
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it's poetic that the first black president becomes the Abraham Lincoln of gay rights.

i think this is red meat for both the bases, however, in the places where it could really affect GOP turnout will likely be in states Obama was already going to lose. it won't change anyone's mind about Obama, it just inspires people for whom this issue is important to come out and vote. if NC and VA are close again, perhaps it is the difference. but this is also months in advance of
What does that Lincoln comment mean?

I think I read philsfan saying he would register to vote if Obama came out in support.

It's heartwarming.

Santorum's response talked about the "real world consequences". I tweeted him asking what they would be, and am just waiting for a reply. Will post back when I get one.
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