Republican Collapse Among Young Americans

[anitram]

Read the report here.

A major, multi-mode survey of America’s young people recently conducted by Democracy Corps shows young people profoundly alienated from the Republican Party and poised to deliver a significant majority to the Democratic nominee for President in 2008.

...

The political stakes with this generation could not be higher. In 2008, young people (ages 18-31) will number 50 million, bigger than the baby boom generation. By 2015 they will likely comprise one-third of the U.S. electorate. While participation among young people still lags well behind other generations, turnout increased two election cycles in a row and, in 2004, jumped nine points (to 49 percent).

...

Young people react with hostility to the Republicans on almost every measure and Republicans and younger voters disagree on almost every major issue of the day. The range of the issue disagreements range from the most prominent issues of the day (Iraq, immigration) to burning social issues (gay marriage, abortion) to fundamental ideological disagreements over the size and scope of government.

 

[phillyfan26]

I'm 16, I'm an independent. I originally thought myself a republican in 2000 cause I didn't like Clinton (I didn't know politics, my only knowledge of him was Monica Lewinski! ). I supported Bush in the past two elections. Since then, I've pretty much realized the two party system sucks. I'd say I lean slightly liberal, but I definitely am neither republican nor democrat. I can't stand extremists or those with blind faith.

It's interesting how I became the way I am. My mother believed that I should figure out my politics on my own, so they never talked politics with me, and never told me who they voted for. They still do not. I've found that my mother is independent, from a republican family, and my father a republican from a republican family, so it's interesting that I've became an independent leaning liberally. I have one belief that is very conservative, however.

I think reading and posting in this forum for the past year has helped shape my political beliefs. I've read arguments for both sides of the issues, and compared them, and have done my own research, etc. It's been enlightening.

 

[A_Wanderer]

Any ideological disagreement with the size and scope of government is not to be found in either the GOP or dems.

 

[anitram]

Iraq and immigration are sort of obvious, and most age groups lean similarly.

I think it's the social issues that are sinking the right and they stand to lose an entire generation. The conservatives in Canada seem to be a lot smarter and they've basically abandoned the issue of gay marriage (stating that it is legal, constitutional, and settled once and for all), they've embraced environmental issues, and have a policy of gagging their candidates from mentioning abortion (recognizing it is a losing issue).

And it's not ideology on their part; it is pragmatism. The GOP doesn't seem to understand that they represent losing issues, because it is time that is going to defeat them, as certainly as the sun will rise in the East tomorrow.

 

[BVS]

We are finally growing out of the 50's...

Thank God.

 

[A_Wanderer]

As certainly as the sun will rise in the East tomorrow.

Not after the next magnetic reversal, snap!

 

[hardyharhar]

We are finally growing out of the 50's...

Thank God.

Just didn't think it would take till I was in my 50's

BTW Phillyfan: I liked Nixon in early '68 because he had a righteous shiny bumper sticker with stars & stripes I was 12.

 

[shart1780]

It doesn't mean much to me. If a democrat president screws up the kids will more likely vote republican in 2012.

 

[BonosSaint]

But will they vote?

 

[U2democrat]

^Unfortunately, no.



Unless you're one of my friends and I harass you until you get registered and vote

 

[onebloodonelife]

But will they vote?

Probably not...it's so sad. I'm personally excited to get to vote in the primaries and the presidential elections. I'll have just turned 18 around primary time, and so the first big election will be the presidential one.

It doesn't surprise me that the Republicans are losing the youth vote. When a party is so against what a lot of us have grown up to believe is right (gay marriage, abortion), it's obvious that they would lose the vote of the young people.

 

[lynnok]

But it won't matter how alienated young people are because they don't vote. No vote, no changes, more whining.

 

[anitram]

But will they vote?

There is a long-term effect we are considering here, though. Young people will by default become old(er) people. But this is a generation which grew to accept different social issues, that their parents and grandparents may have rejected. So although youth voting rates are depressing, what happens in 20 years? This is why the Republicans have the clock running against them, regardless of whether young people vote next November.

 

[Vincent Vega]

Well, about 50 per cent is not a great voter turnout among young people, but to say "they don't vote" isn't exactly right either. And as pointed out in the article, the number was growing.

 

[A_Wanderer]

There is a long-term effect we are considering here, though. Young people will by default become old(er) people. But this is a generation which grew to accept different social issues, that their parents and grandparents may have rejected. So although youth voting rates are depressing, what happens in 20 years? This is why the Republicans have the clock running against them, regardless of whether young people vote next November.

And that is predicated upon a political party being a static entity, which it is not, social norms may change but it wont transform into a one party state.

 

[Bluer White]

So although youth voting rates are depressing, what happens in 20 years? This is why the Republicans have the clock running against them, regardless of whether young people vote next November.

I agree the clock is running on the GOP due to demographics. Another factor is the huge potential voting bloc of illegal immigrants that continue to stream into the country. Advantage = Democrats.

On the other hand, Winston Churchill had this to say: 'Show me a young Conservative and I'll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old Liberal and I'll show you someone with no brains.' Political views do evolve over the years.

Time will tell

 

[BVS]

Another factor is the huge potential voting bloc of illegal immigrants that continue to stream into the country.

Care to explain? Can you register if you are illegal?

 

[anitram]

And that is predicated upon a political party being a static entity, which it is not, social norms may change but it wont transform into a one party state.

Well as I stated, the Canadian conservatives woke up and smelled the coffee. However, there is absolutely no indication the GOP is modifying their social views, even slightly. If anything, they're leaning further right, continuing to pander to the religious voters, and so on.

 

[Ormus]

I agree the clock is running on the GOP due to demographics. Another factor is the huge potential voting bloc of illegal immigrants that continue to stream into the country. Advantage = Democrats.

Illegal immigrants can't vote, but legalized immigrants, I'm sure, won't vote for the party that profiles them as "default criminals."

On the other hand, Winston Churchill had this to say: 'Show me a young Conservative and I'll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old Liberal and I'll show you someone with no brains.' Political views do evolve over the years.

Time will tell

The only trouble with Churchill's quote is that the entire definition of "liberal" and "conservative" is not constant, and political parties, which are probably more defined out of spite for the other, rather than any consistent platform, have often traded positions over the generations.

In addition, while we can identify "socially conservative" views, what are the economically "conservative" ones? Is that the "pro-globalism" camp or the "pro-protectionism" camp? I'd probably argue, as objectively as possible, that the "pro-protectionist" camp is the "conservative" of the two, as globalism is a standard by which we'd deem an economy to be "liberalized." If that's the case, then I'd argue that Churchill's quote gets trumped by the adage, "You can't stop progress."

And that's certainly the case, as I see it. "Social conservatives" are fighting a losing battle, just as each generation's social conservatives have lost the battle to keep slaves, ghettoize Jews, or marginalize women. Likewise, "economic conservatives," if you define them as "protectionists," are fighting a losing battle, as well, because we live in an increasingly "borderless" world.

 

[BVS]

Illegal immigrants can't vote, but legalized immigrants, I'm sure, won't vote for the party that profiles them as "default criminals."

Yeah, that post puzzles me, I'm hoping he'll clarify, otherwise it just sounds like the underlying racism that seems to plague many Republicans.

 

[Bluer White]

In many states all you need to register to vote is a drivers license. It's not difficult.

Let's not derail the topic of the thread, young Americans voting tendencies. I was just pointing out another bloc who could have as great an impact.

 

[CTU2fan]

Well as I stated, the Canadian conservatives woke up and smelled the coffee. However, there is absolutely no indication the GOP is modifying their social views, even slightly. If anything, they're leaning further right, continuing to pander to the religious voters, and so on.

Well really that's a smart strategy for the GOP. They're continuing to cater to those older socially conservative fundie types, because the younger cons who are less concerned with social issues aren't voting. When the young economic conservatives start voting and show that they're a valuable demographic the Republican party might respond...

 

[phillyfan26]

Isn't the point that there are very few "young economic conservatives"? I mean, there are less voters, but it's not that drastic.

 

[Irvine511]

But this is a generation which grew to accept different social issues, that their parents and grandparents may have rejected. So although youth voting rates are depressing, what happens in 20 years?

i'd like to agree, but i'm struck at how the children of the 1960s ultimately gave us Reagan 20 years later.

 

[CTU2fan]

Isn't the point that there are very few "young economic conservatives"? I mean, there are less voters, but it's not that drastic.

Do you think so? You're younger than me so maybe I'm off-base, but I get the impression that there are a lot of young people who are conservative economically (low tax, less spending), but they're not traditional "conservatives" in that they're pro-choice, they favor legalizing same-sex marriage, etc. I would think those people would be the new Republicans, but they're turned off by the party's fixation on social issues that they don't agree with.

 

[BVS]

but I get the impression that there are a lot of young people who are conservative economically (low tax, less spending),

Do these people still exist? Who are they voting for? Surely not this administration...

 

[Irvine511]

Do you think so? You're younger than me so maybe I'm off-base, but I get the impression that there are a lot of young people who are conservative economically (low tax, less spending), but they're not traditional "conservatives" in that they're pro-choice, they favor legalizing same-sex marriage, etc. I would think those people would be the new Republicans, but they're turned off by the party's fixation on social issues that they don't agree with.

they've been called "South Park Republicans."

it's a term from 2001/2, and over the past 5 years, the Republican Party and it's total intellectual bankruptcy and manifest incompetence has demonstrated that it's not much of a home for these folk.

 

[Bluer White]

I don't think either party speaks directly to young voters enough. Democrats seem to make more of a cursory effort. The abortion debate resonates, but Republicans probably aren't getting that young woman's vote anyway, if she isn't an evangelical.

The youngster vote can't be relied on to deliver a win, and they don't have a ton of money to contribute to campaigns. Makes it tough to get attention.

 

[phillyfan26]

The whole two party system is a complete train wreck. That's the bottom line.

 

[A_Wanderer]

True, but anything greater inevitably prevents politicians from consolidating power and excusing their own excesses and that is obviouly in nobodies interest, well except for the electorate, but as if they matter