|11-13-2001, 12:43 PM||#1|
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Montréal, Québec
Local Time: 04:43 PM
Prelude to social distabilization
While everybody (or a lot) of people seem to enjoy the fact that the Northern Alliance delivered Mazar-E-Sharif and Kabulk (and probably are undergoing attacks to free Jalalabad), I'd like to make a couple of comments and guesses on the present situation.__________________
I - The Northern Alliance said it wanted to create a new government without the help of foreing countries, but surely needs the help of the United Nations (i.e.: à la East Timor). The US / UK and Allied Governments must be very carefull with the new regime and the UN must watch over Human Rights (remember 1992 and 1995 Northern Alliance regime).
2- The Talibans evacuated most major points of Afghanistan by this time. I thought that the 'Battle for Kabul' would be the 'Berlin' of the Northern Alliance, but, to my great surprise, only a few gunshots were made. My guess is that the Talibans are evacuating their major point of Afghanistan because they no longuer can hold Afghanistan and they would not be able to get back without undergoing serious 'colateral' damages and repression, wich they can't do in Afghanistan for now, while being under bombings.
3- Pakistan : At first, only the extremists spoke loud enough so that the medias could care and show them to the rest of the world. By this time (a month - month 1/2 ago), the majority of the population didn't approved Bin Ladden and didn't approved the war over Afghanistan. Now, this part of the population, while not approving Bin Ladden, really think of turning against their Government for it's new pro-USA position. This country is near distabilization and a revolution can happen anytime. My guess goes that the Talibans seeks for an action in Pakistan to take control of the Government, or at least, play an important role in it. The situation would be perfect for the Talibans : people approving them (at least, more than in Afghanistan), a 'real' Pakistanese Government (Talibans in Afghanistan were from foreing countries in a majority). Remember that Pakistan have at least 12 nuclear ICBM missiles. This is a dream situation for the Talibans and I'm sure they seek for it. Also, Bin Ladden still have his road to Pakistan intact. Nothing can stop him from going from Afghanistan to Pakistan by the moutains.
4- What would Iran do ??? I don't know... what do you think ?
With each bomb in Afghanistan, the situation gets worst. That's why I'm against this war in the way it's done now. I'm not an angelic pacifist or a militarist, I'm not against war just because of the word "war". Pakistan is a very volatile country... holding 12 ICBM nukes...
United Nations : www.un.org - UNICEF (United Nations Children's Fund) : www.unicef.org
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«Je</A> suis le dernier homme. Contre tous, je me défendrai...»
"I am the last man. Against all, I shall defend myself..."
- 'Rhinocéros', Ionesco
|12-01-2001, 08:00 PM||#2|
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: back and to the left
Local Time: 10:43 AM
Go lightly down your darkened way.
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