Ohio predictions

[U2democrat]

A group from my school will be going up to PA the weekend before the primary to campaign for Obama. Time to really roll up the sleeves and hit the pavement.

 

[Vincent Vega]

the Clintons would rather have a Republican win, than for the Democrat be not one of them.

Some weeks ago I've read an article about the allegations that she has worked against Al Gore so that she would have greater chances in this election.
Maybe she did so that time, and is doing it this time again? Me or no one.

Yesterday I read an article (satire) that the Democrats have a huge problem: They don't have any candidate, as both Clinton and Obama are running for night-shift telephone operator.

 

[U2isthebest]

I've read a few posts here now about some kind of falling out between the Clintons and the Gores supposedly caused by the 2000 election debacle. Could someone give me some background info. on that? I'd never really heard about it until I read something about it here a few weeks ago. Sorry to go semi off-topic.

 

[joyfulgirl]

If the Dems want to win, this is what they have to do.

March 5, 2008
Clinton: This may be headed to a joint ticket

(CNN) – The morning after primary wins in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, Hillary Clinton said she would consider being part of a Democratic “dream ticket” that would include both her and presidential rival Barack Obama.

"That may be where this is headed,” she told the CBS Early Show during a marathon set of appearances on the network morning news shows. “But of course we have to decide who is on the top of ticket. I think the people of Ohio very clearly said that it should be me."

The New York senator has made the claim before. Last month, in one of several interviews where she said the scenario was a possibility, she told a Vibe interviewer: “Of course there is (a chance of a joint ticket). Of course there is. Now neither of us will answer this question because we don’t want to look presumptuous and premature. But it is more than fair to say that — of course there is.”

While Clinton has said a joint ticket is possible, the Obama team has largely avoided making similar statements. Some of the Illinois senator’s campaign surrogates have said they believe the claims benefit Clinton because they may convince Democratic voters drawn to the Illinois senator that a vote for her is essentially a vote for both of them — or a vote for him to head the ballot in eight years, after she has had her two terms on top of the ticket.

Primary season rivals who have successfully shared a presidential ticket after tough nominating fights include Democrats John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, and Republicans Ronald Reagan and George Bush.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

 

[Irvine511]

a Clinton/Obama ticket would, indeed, crush a McCain ticket ... unless he finds an appropriate female running mate which, if he's smart, he'll do.

i'm opposed to another 4-8 years of the Clintons for very different reasons, but i do agree that this would be a very powerful ticket.

 

[Vincent Vega]

I've read a few posts here now about some kind of falling out between the Clintons and the Gores supposedly caused by the 2000 election debacle. Could someone give me some background info. on that? I'd never really heard about it until I read something about it here a few weeks ago. Sorry to go semi off-topic.

In "For Love of Politics - Bill and Hillary Clinton: The White House Years", author Sally Bedell Smith makes some claims how Hillary Clinton worked against Al Gore and how Gore since then feels she was in part reason for him not winning the election.

"As a sitting president, Bill was in a unique position to boost his vice president's candidacy by scheduling White House events to highlight his achievements. But in 1999 those resources were diverted from Gore to Hillary "in a big way," said one member of the Gore team. "The Clintons come first. That was their basic framework."

Further, by hiring Terry McAuliffe for Clinton's senate race and asking donors to give to her, it is claimed that Al Gore did receive less money for his campaign. At dinners, it is said, Hillary appeared instead of Al Gore, promoting her Senate candidacy, but not his Presidential race.

And Bill Clinton should have been mad at Gore for distancing himself during the Lewinsky scandal and is accused of sabotaging Gore's campaign with remarks about Gore's stiffness and a page one interview in the NYT where he not too subtly criticised Gore.

According to the book, Gore is making the Clinton's responsible to at least adding to his defeat in the 2000 election

And the question is if there might have been some calculation that it would be easier for Hillary to run in a later election if it was preceded by a Republican president than by a Democrat.

I'm taking this information from a Spiegel article reviewing the book. Alas, it is only available in German, and the only page I found where quotes from the book can be found is this page:
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/011116.php

 

[joyfulgirl]

i'm opposed to another 4-8 years of the Clintons for very different reasons, but i do agree that this would be a very powerful ticket.

I'm not exactly jumping up for joy about it either but I can't see either Clinton or Obama winning in November on their own. I still pine for a day when the US is ready for a truly progressive presidency and neither Clinton nor Obama are that but at least a Clinton/Obama administration would be a departure from the Bush administration.

 

[U2isthebest]

I think the people of Ohio very clearly said that it should be me."

That's great Hillary, but there's 49 other states besides Ohio, and a great deal of the ones that have already spoken don't want you.

 

[U2isthebest]

In "For Love of Politics - Bill and Hillary Clinton: The White House Years", author Sally Bedell Smith makes some claims how Hillary Clinton worked against Al Gore and how Gore since then feels she was in part reason for him not winning the election.

"As a sitting president, Bill was in a unique position to boost his vice president's candidacy by scheduling White House events to highlight his achievements. But in 1999 those resources were diverted from Gore to Hillary "in a big way," said one member of the Gore team. "The Clintons come first. That was their basic framework."

Further, by hiring Terry McAuliffe for Clinton's senate race and asking donors to give to her, it is claimed that Al Gore did receive less money for his campaign. At dinners, it is said, Hillary appeared instead of Al Gore, promoting her Senate candidacy, but not his Presidential race.

And Bill Clinton should have been mad at Gore for distancing himself during the Lewinsky scandal and is accused of sabotaging Gore's campaign with remarks about Gore's stiffness and a page one interview in the NYT where he not too subtly criticised Gore.

According to the book, Gore is making the Clinton's responsible to at least adding to his defeat in the 2000 election

And the question is if there might have been some calculation that it would be easier for Hillary to run in a later election if it was preceded by a Republican president than by a Democrat.

I'm taking this information from a Spiegel article reviewing the book. Alas, it is only available in German, and the only page I found where quotes from the book can be found is this page:
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/011116.php

Thanks! That's a shame. The Clinton/Gore administration was one of our country's best, and Al Gore would have made a competent and thoughtful president. I will never stop wondering what would've happened if Florida had turned out differently.

 

[phanan]

She was speaking in the context that, in recent history, whoever has won Ohio has won the general election.

 

[U2isthebest]

She was speaking in the context that, in recent history, whoever has won Ohio has won the general election.

I know, but the last election is not necessairily indicative of the coming one. People from every state are going to be voting, so to put all her emphasis on one state is not a very smart thing to do. *coughGiulianiFloridacough*

 

[2861U2]

a Clinton/Obama ticket would, indeed, crush a McCain ticket

I have to disagree. I don't think there's going to be any "crushing" result, no matter what the tickets look like.

I'm in no way convinced that, if it came to this, Hillary would offer Obama the VP or that he would want it.

 

[deep]

That's great Hillary, but there's 49 other states besides Ohio, and a great deal of the ones that have already spoken don't want you.

They are saying Ohio is a bell-weather state.

In recent times, no democratic candidate that loss the Ohio primary and went on the get the nomination became president. Lose Ohio = lose to the Republican in November.

check it out, for yourself.

 

[verte76]

Ohio is a very important state.

 

[deep]

People who say they want a Democrat win in November

and make emotional arguments for Obama are missing some very important facts.


Hillary is much stronger in getting Hispanic votes than Obama. In Texas it went something like 67% - 31%

also, in CA the same


McCain will get Hispanic votes,

Obama loses this group to McCain.

Hillary is much stronger with the Jewish vote than Obama

and that is why Hillary can win Florida and Obama will not.

 

[U2isthebest]

They are saying Ohio is a bell-weather state.

In recent times, no democratic candidate that loss the Ohio primary and went on the get the nomination became president. Lose Ohio = lose to the Republican in November.

check it out, for yourself.

I'm just saying, one can't automatically predict which way Ohio, or any state, will go just because it went that way in the past. Statements like the one Hillary made are exactly the kind of thinking that could do serious harm to the Democrats simply because it sends a message that if everything rests on Ohio, it's an exercise in futility to bother to vote if one lives somewhere else. That may not be the case, but the average voter could easily see it that way.

 

[U2isthebest]

People who say they want a Democrat win in November

and make emotional arguments for Obama are missing some very important facts.

Can you please point out who among us is making "emotional arguments" for Obama?

 

[Vincent Vega]

Can you please point out who among us is making "emotional arguments" for Obama?

I think it doesn't matter if you, or anyone else, here point out that you've made an informed decision after learning about Obama's positions, he will always refer to you as the emotional, blind and biased voter(s).

At least one can get that impression.

 

[deep]

That may not be the case, but the average voter could easily see it that way.

This information really is not directed at the average voter

it is directed at future Democratic Primary voters.

We are in a campaign season.


As for hurting the eventual candidate down the road.

I do recall watching Obama on television awhile back.

He said, "I know Hillary voters will support me in the general election. My voters will not support her."

Of the two statements, which one do you believe is more damaging?

 

[deep]

Can you please point out who among us is making "emotional arguments" for Obama?

I could be wrong here,

but I believe I said you gave a good answer in the thread, "What makes Obama Attractive" many others gave what might be considered answers based on how he made them feel, etc.

 

[phillyfan26]

A group from my school will be going up to PA the weekend before the primary to campaign for Obama. Time to really roll up the sleeves and hit the pavement.

See you here.

 

[U2isthebest]

This information really is not directed at the average voter

it is directed at future Democratic Primary voters.

We are in a campaign season.


As for hurting the eventual candidate down the road.

I do recall watching Obama on television awhile back.

He said, "I know Hillary voters will support me in the general election. My voters will not support her."

Of the two statements, which one do you believe is more damaging?

Obama's statement would be more damaging, I suppose. I'm surprised such a statement wouldn't garner more media attention, though. That statement is an error on Obama's part. However, that doesn't compare to the way Hillary's run her entire campaign. I think I've said before that I've always been a huge admirer of Hillary Clinton. I think she's brilliant, strong, and capable. If you had asked me this time last year about my choice for president, it would've been her, hands down. I am shocked and disheartened by the way she's run her campaign. Irvine put it better in his 3rd post on this page http://forum.interference.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=183979&perpage=15&pagenumber=17 I stated underneath it that he summed up my feelings on the Clinton campaign, so I'm not going to rehash my thoughts here. I will say, however, that while the Obama statement you posted was a mistake and wrong, it does not add up to the arrogance and entitlement that hangs over the Clinton campaign like a bad stench.

 

[phillyfan26]

They are saying Ohio is a bell-weather state.

In recent times, no democratic candidate that loss the Ohio primary and went on the get the nomination became president. Lose Ohio = lose to the Republican in November.

check it out, for yourself.

The saying for decades way back when was "As Maine goes, so goes the nation."

Then came along Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

 

[Irvine511]

They are saying Ohio is a bell-weather state.

In recent times, no democratic candidate that loss the Ohio primary and went on the get the nomination became president. Lose Ohio = lose to the Republican in November.

check it out, for yourself.

by the old rules, you are right.

and if you want the old rules, if you want an election where only three states -- OH, FL, and PA -- matter, then vote for Hillary. she might be able to pull them off.

but there is new thinking out there, the kind of thinking that decided that Denver would be a good place for the Democratic Convention. there are some candidates who put most of the inter-mountain west into play, as well as the sunbelt states, and even Virginia.

you may be right that Jews and Latinos prefer Hillary to Obama, but i don't know that they would prefer McCain to Obama.

you are right about the elderly, though. there's enough residual racism amongst 60+ voters to argue against Obama.

 

[U2isthebest]

you are right about the elderly, though. there's enough residual racism amongst 60+ voters to argue against Obama.

Jack Nicholson and my grandparents, FTW.

 

[Irvine511]

Jack Nicholson and my grandparents, FTW.

i thought it was interesting the specific characters Nicholson chose to use in that ad.

what did all of those characters have in common? they were mysogynistic assholes.

 

[joyfulgirl]

I'm surprised such a statement wouldn't garner more media attention, though.

I remembered hearing Obama say, that, too and looked it up. The exact quote according to one source was:

"I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/01/629273.aspx

I think he's right but it was a divisive comment.

 

[U2isthebest]

I remembered hearing Obama say, that, too and looked it up. The exact quote according to one source was:

"I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/01/629273.aspx

I think he's right but it was a divisive comment.

I agree. It was a divisive comment, and I'm disappointed he said it. Which is worse, though, a divisive comment or a divisive campaign?

 

[joyfulgirl]

I agree. It was a divisive comment, and I'm disappointed he said it. Which is worse, though, a divisive comment or a divisive campaign?

No argument there.

 

[Irvine511]

I agree. It was a divisive comment, and I'm disappointed he said it. Which is worse, though, a divisive comment or a divisive campaign?

or how about a line like this:

[q]Sen. McCain has a lifetime of experience, I have a lifetime of experience, Sen. Obama has one speech in 2002"[/q]