Ohio predictions

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by phillyfan26
Was Obama on the ballot in those states, deep?

Did Obama campaign in those states, deep?

He was on the ballot in Florida picking up only 33% of the vote.

[U2isthebest]

Originally posted by yolland
Erm, you guys do realize that all the candidates WERE on the ballot in Florida, right?

I knew they all weren't in Michigan, I wasn't sure about Florida. I just knew that the votes of both states weren't going to count for the nomination.

[deep]

Originally posted by U2isthebest


Exactly. As much as I desperately hope Obama is the Democratic nominee, if the situation was reversed and he had been on the ballot here and in Florida, I would still say the votes should not not count. Regardless of who the candidate in question is, it's not fair to them or to the voters

Florida

and
Mich

are very different

there is a reasonable case for a do over in Mich


there is also a case to be made for seating the Florida delegation as they
both were on the ballot

and both did not campaign
(except Obama ran one ad, that his people claim was a national buy. they did stop it in Florida, after one day)

[EdgeIsTooSexy]

Originally posted by phillyfan26


Well, that wasn't bad. It does hit where it hurts.

thought so.

[phillyfan26]

One national TV ad that happened to cross the Florida TV space doesn't count as campaigning.

So, Obama was on the ballot in Florida, not in Michigan, and campaigned in neither.

In both cases, completely different story if Obama and Clinton campaigned.

[deep]

Originally posted by Diemen
Your obsession with pointing out this "bias" is quite unflattering.

what would you call it when his supporters

are saying he only lost in Florida because he was not on the ballot


when he was?

and even ran an ad?

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by phanan


Clinton didn't campaign there either, though.

I have to agree with deep that Clinton might actually be stronger in the three traditional battleground states that usually decide elections - Florida, Ohio, and PA. However, others have a point that Obama might be able to break through in states traditionally won by Republicans. The question is, which states would those be, and how many electoral votes would they have compared to OH, FL, and PA?

I don't see Obama winning any non-battleground states, but he had the lead in the following RED battleground states:

Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Missouri
Iowa

He does have a 3 point lead in Ohio in the latest poll, but has been behind in most of the polls before that and does not do nearly as well as Hillary does.

The problem is that winning those 5 states won't matter if the Republicans hold Ohio, Florida, and pick up Pennsylvania.

If either side were to pick up traditional Blue or Red states the election would turn into a classic landslide.

[phillyfan26]

But what if the Republicans don't pick up PA? Then what, strongbow?

[deep]

Originally posted by phillyfan26
In both cases, completely different story if Obama and Clinton campaigned.

like CA and NY where they both campaigned?

[phillyfan26]

CA and NY are going Dem no matter who the nominee is. What's your point?

[EdgeIsTooSexy]

i dont think we will pick up PA. i saw on TV that the number of democrats from last election has been like doubled.

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by phillyfan26
But what if the Republicans don't pick up PA? Then what, strongbow?

Provided Obama kept most of the 5 Red battleground states he has the current lead in, he wins the election. But its important to emphasize that even with the loss of those 5 red states, McCain could still win by simply taking Pennsylvania. Not an easy task but it is realistically possible.

[deep]

Originally posted by phillyfan26
CA and NY are going Dem no matter who the nominee is. What's your point?

it they both campaigned

it does not mean Obama wins

look at Ohio

which is what you seem to have been implying

Obama loss big in Florida
he would not have won
even with campaigning.

[phanan]

Originally posted by Strongbow
But its important to emphasize that even with the loss of those 5 red states, McCain could still win by simply taking Pennsylvania. Not an easy task but it is realistically possible.

But unlikely, I think.

[phillyfan26]

Originally posted by deep
it they both campaigned

it does not mean Obama wins

look at Ohio

which is what you seem to have been implying

Obama loss big in Florida
he would not have won
even with campaigning.

Are you saying there aren't states Obama closed the gap on with campaigning?

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by EdgeIsTooSexy
i dont think we will pick up PA. i saw on TV that the number of democrats from last election has been like doubled.

But polling so far shows the general election match up is closer than it was in 2000 or 2004. Reagan Democrats delivered Pennsylvania for Reagan twice and Bush Sr. once. They may deliver for McCain in November 2008. There are many Democrats especially in the middle of the state that are much more conservative than your average Democrat. They made Casey Governer despite his pro-life position on Abortion.

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by phanan



But unlikely, I think.

Depends on who the Democratic nominee is. If its Hillary Clinton, I think its unlikely, but if its Obama, the Republicans may win Pennsylvania for the first time since 1988. Pennsylvania has been a battleground state for years now, and its no more Blue than Ohio is Red.

[Irvine511]

Originally posted by deep


it they both campaigned

it does not mean Obama wins

look at Ohio

which is what you seem to have been implying

Obama loss big in Florida
he would not have won
even with campaigning.

i guess fear really does work. it worked for Bush. why not for Hillary?

it's 3am in America, and you know which candidate got stoned and passed out in front of the TV again.

[phillyfan26]

Originally posted by Strongbow


But polling so far shows the general election match up is closer than it was in 2000 or 2004. Reagan Democrats delivered Pennsylvania for Reagan twice and Bush Sr. once. They may deliver for McCain in November 2008. There are many Democrats especially in the middle of the state that are much more conservative than your average Democrat. They made Casey Governer despite his pro-life position on Abortion.

Senator.

The governor of Pennsylvania is Democrat Ed Rendell, former mayor of Philadelphia, and Eagles Post-Game Live analyst.

[namkcuR]

They are saying the gap in Ohio will narrow as the hours go on...because there are some major counties that still have counted very few of the votes....although I don't quite understand why they're saying that, since two of the counties in question are Hamilton(where Cincinnati is) and Montgomery(where Dayton is, and where I live), and both the cities of Cincinnati and Dayton are, unfortunatly, racist. But...MSNBC says it's going to narrow the gap significantly...not that it will give Obama the win, neccessarily...just that the gap will narrow significantly.