Ohio predictions

[phanan]

Originally posted by U2isthebest
Texas has cacuses after the primary right? I'm assuming they're taking place now?

Correct.

[EdgeIsTooSexy]

clinton won ohio

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by BonosSaint
PA is basically conservative /moderate democrat. I can't see it going Republican for the general, particularly with the worsening economy here. I don't see it as a runaway though. Last election was close, but we had two Republican senators at the time. Now we've got one and the Republicans consider him a RINO. There is definitely an increase in Democratic registration.

The unempolyment rate in Pennsylvania is below the current national average of 5%. Its not a state that is in the hot seat when it comes to the economy currently.

Democratic registration has increased, but these are Democrats who are more conservative politically and are not against crossing party lines and voting for a Republican. They gave the state to Reagan and Bush Sr. in the 80s. The current polling shows they may very well vote for McCain if the Democratic nominee is Obama.

Maine has two Republican Senators, but its not about to go red and is certainly not a battleground state for November 2008.

[U2isthebest]

Originally posted by phanan


Correct.

Thanks!

[phillyfan26]

Originally posted by EdgeIsTooSexy
what county ru phillyfan?

mines very democratic, im part of the lehigh county

Currently Chester.

[phanan]

Originally posted by Strongbow
Democratic registration has increased, but these are Democrats who are more conservative politically and are not against crossing party lines and voting for a Republican.

Interesting. Where did you read this?

[Strongbow]

Damn, Clinton is up on Obama in Texas now, 50% to 48%.

[deep]

I won't be calling Texas anytime soon



I will say this

cauci have been good to Barack Hussien
that system favors him

I would be partying with the young things
over the blue hairs

but, more importantly
the Dems in Texas have a crazy ass weighted delegate thing
where the legal brown American voters that trend for Hillary will not get as many delegates as other people.

[phanan]

Originally posted by deep
I won't be calling Texas anytime soon



I will say this

cauci have been good to Barack Hussien
that system favors him

I would be partying with the young things
over the blue hairs

but, more importantly
the Dems in Texas have a crazy ass weighted delegate thing
where the legal brown American voters that trend for Hillary will not get as many delegates as other people.

I'm gonna start referring to your posts as "deep speak".

[phillyfan26]

I've read that PA has been going more Democratic lately, strongbow, so there's a lot of theories out there.

I think what I specifically read was that the suburbs, which were typically strong for the GOP, have been moving Dem. My county follows this trend.

[BonosSaint]

I'm saying we didn't go Republican when we had two Republican senators and there is a shift now even more toward Democrat. The unemployment rate does not take into account the underemployed rate, of people working for less now than they did a few years ago. Trust me, it's a factor.

[deep]

Originally posted by Strongbow
Damn, Clinton is up on Obama in Texas now, 50% to 48%.

a fair chance hillary wins the popular vote

and obama gets more delegates

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by phanan


Interesting. Where did you read this?

What I meant to say was that most Democrats in the state in general tend to be more conservative politically, I'm not sure about newly registered Democrats specifically.

Simply looking at election results from the past several decades and party identification, plus how many states have Democrats that would rally around a pro-life Democrat for Governor, you can tell that Democrats in PA on average are more conservative than those further North or out West.

Hell Andrea Mitchell just mentioned to Chris Matthews that Democrats in Pennsylvania are a different breed.

[deep]

Originally posted by phillyfan26
I tend to agree on Florida, but I completely disagree on Michigan.

I will admit I am more confident about Florida than I am about Michigan

[phillyfan26]

Originally posted by Strongbow


What I meant to say was that most Democrats in the state in general tend to be more conservative politically, I'm not sure about newly registered Democrats specifically.

Simply looking at election results from the past several decades and party identification, plus how many states have Democrats that would rally around a pro-life Democrat for Governor, you can tell that Democrats in PA on average are more conservative than those further North or out West.

Hell Andrea Mitchell just mentioned to Chris Matthews that Democrats in Pennsylvania are a different breed.

But PA is moving in the Dem direction, that's the thing. The economy is beginning to feel the drag here, and people are going Dem as a result.

You keep bringing up the abortion issue, but it's honestly not as big of an issue as you think here.

[BonosSaint]

Originally posted by phanan


Interesting. Where did you read this?

Strongbow's not necesssarily wrong there. But there has been an unusual shift in the past few years. I think there is a growing dissatisfaction in PA, even the tenor of talk radio is changing, which surprised me.

[unico]

Originally posted by deep
I won't be calling Texas anytime soon



I will say this

cauci have been good to Barack Hussien
that system favors him

I would be partying with the young things
over the blue hairs

but, more importantly
the Dems in Texas have a crazy ass weighted delegate thing
where the legal brown American voters that trend for Hillary will not get as many delegates as other people.

deep FTL.
i haven't posted here but i've been reading. this post really rubs me the wrong way. do you think your racist labels really add substance to this?

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by BonosSaint
I'm saying we didn't go Republican when we had two Republican senators and there is a shift now even more toward Democrat. The unemployment rate does not take into account the underemployed rate, of people working for less now than they did a few years ago. Trust me, it's a factor.

I'm saying it does not matter who your Senators are especially in a state like Pennsylvania.

The unemployment rate is directly impacted by the underemployed rate since lower incomes equals, lower spending, which equals lower economic growth and a rise in the unemployment rate. Overall, that has not been a factor in Pennsylvania relative to the rest of the country.

[deep]

Originally posted by unico



deep FTL.
i haven't posted here but i've been reading. this post really rubs me the wrong way. do you think your racist labels really add substance to this?

are you aware of how delegates will be selected in Texas?

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by phillyfan26


But PA is moving in the Dem direction, that's the thing. The economy is beginning to feel the drag here, and people are going Dem as a result.

You keep bringing up the abortion issue, but it's honestly not as big of an issue as you think here.

The abortion issue is not an issue for the general election in Pennsylvania at all. But, the fact that Democrats in the state would support a pro-life candidate for Governor of their party shows you that Democrats in Pennsylvania tend to be much more conservative than your average Democrat in most other states.

The polls with McCain as the Republican nominee show things moving in the REP direction at the moment. McCain is a Republican that many Pennsylvania Democrats could vote for.

On the economy, Pennsylvania overall is doing well relative to the rest of the country and especially when compared with Ohio, Missouri and Michigan.