Oh My God...McCain could win if he picks Palin!!!

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Strongbow said:
Well, the full poll numbers that include Obama's last night of the convention are in, and he was not able to increase the 8 point margin he had, and polling on Friday was already starting to show his Thursday numbers being blunted by McCain's Palin announcement.

Obama's bounce, now that polling over the entire convention period is now in, according to Gallup is 8 points, one point less than he was up by at one point in July.

Will have to see in the coming days where this poll numbers go as the news of Palin sets in, and the Republicans start their convention. Obama does not appear to have achieved a break away lead with his convention despite being touted as the greatest in history by some.

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Lead 49% to 41%
Click to expand...



considering most conventions give, on average, a 3-4 point bounce, and Obama has easily doubled that, it seems as if it was a very successful convention indeed.

we shall see what happens next week.
 
Irvine511 said:
the small amount of rabidly anti-choice Christian women who were somehow going to vote for Obama even without Hillary who will now be brought over to McCain because of Palin will be offset by the socially moderate, financially conservative independents who think McCain just did something incredibly idiotic.
Click to expand...

There were probably little to none Christian anti-choicers voting for Obama anyway. The grand majority of socially conservative evangelicals are always going to vote for the Republican. My grandparents and my parents are the only socially conservative Democrats I know. All of our evangelical extended family and friends always vote Repub.
 
deep said:
This whole Palin episode has had one very interesting side effect

it has united Dems, GOP, Independents, Newsmedia on the fact that the top of the Democratic ticket has a serious problem with perception of being qualified.
[/B]
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really?

the Palin selection tells me that the Republicans obviously think that "experience" in the traditional sense obviously has no bearing whatsoever on one's ability to be president.

they've aptly demonstrated this with their VP pick.
 
Irvine511 said:
the small amount of rabidly anti-choice Christian women who were somehow going to vote for Obama even without Hillary who will now be brought over to McCain because of Palin will be offset by the socially moderate, financially conservative independents who think McCain just did something incredibly idiotic.
Click to expand...

You are SO wrong my friend, so wrong. It's this kind of thinking that might actually win it for McCain.
 
Irvine511 said:
considering most conventions give, on average, a 3-4 point bounce, and Obama has easily doubled that, it seems as if it was a very successful convention indeed.

we shall see what happens next week.
Click to expand...


3-4?

Dukakis had a 15 point bounce-you guys are going ostrich on us if you can't see the writing on the walls.

<>
 
diamond said:
3-4?

Dukakis had a 15 point bounce-you guys are going ostrich on us if you can't see the writing on the walls.

<>
Click to expand...

Because that election was exactly like this one, with two candidates exactly like these two, with issues exactly like the ones this country is facing today, and a political climate just like today's.

Well, I don't know about the rest of the gang, but you've convinced me! :happy:
 
martha said:
The awesome part was: there's a McCain ad on that website. Apparently, his campaign will buy time on any site that just mentions him, no matter in what context. :lol:
Click to expand...

Are you sure it

mccain_0.jpg


is a McCain ad ?
 
Irvine511 said:
considering most conventions give, on average, a 3-4 point bounce, and Obama has easily doubled that, it seems as if it was a very successful convention indeed.

we shall see what happens next week.
Click to expand...

Interesting to note that they were already up 6 points on McCain before Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama got a chance to speak on Wendsday and Thursday. After Bill Clinton and Joe Biden got to speak they were up to 8 points. After the big night on Thursday with Obama's speach they remained flat in the polls at 8 points. They were actually up by more back in July when at one point that had a 9 point lead.


There is a definite ceiling on how high McCain can get over Obama, and its probably realistically about 3 points given the political environment this year. I don't think the Republicans could win the popular vote in November by more than 3 points. There may be some polls that push them higher than that next week, but I doubt those will be accurate.

Obama has led all summer long by an average of 3 points. If that margin were to hold up for the popular vote in the general election, its still possible for McCain to win if he picks up the right states.

So, all the Republicans need to have now is the 8 point margin that Obama is ahead by brought down to at least 3 point margin to at least claim that picking Palin did no harm. If its a tie or a lead of 1 to 3 points, I'd say she is probably a net positive pick for the campaign. If next Saturday team Obama is still ahead by 4 or more points despite the Palin pick and the Republican convention, then I think those questioning her ability to help McCain might be right.

Although the Democrats have been gloating about how their going to beat the Republicans for the Presidency in 2008, ever since the 2006 congressional elections, the summer has revealed what might be a very tight election with Obama only averaging a lead of 3 points. McCain is not likely to win the popular vote by a large margin, maybe 1 to 3 points, and I'd say if he does win, its equally likely that he will lose the popular vote.

Provided the candidates remain within three points of each other, this election could be decided by as little as one state and a few thousand votes.

Next week should be interesting.
 
Strongbow said:
Interesting to note that they were already up 6 points on McCain before Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama got a chance to speak on Wendsday and Thursday. After Bill Clinton and Joe Biden got to speak they were up to 8 points. After the big night on Thursday with Obama's speach they remained flat in the polls at 8 points. They were actually up by more back in July when at one point that had a 9 point lead.


There is a definite ceiling on how high McCain can get over Obama, and its probably realistically about 3 points given the political environment this year. I don't think the Republicans could win the popular vote in November by more than 3 points. There may be some polls that push them higher than that next week, but I doubt those will be accurate.

Obama has led all summer long by an average of 3 points. If that margin were to hold up for the popular vote in the general election, its still possible for McCain to win if he picks up the right states.

So, all the Republicans need to have now is the 8 point margin that Obama is ahead by brought down to at least 3 point margin to at least claim that picking Palin did no harm. If its a tie or a lead of 1 to 3 points, I'd say she is probably a net positive pick for the campaign. If next Saturday team Obama is still ahead by 4 or more points despite the Palin pick and the Republican convention, then I think those questioning her ability to help McCain might be right.

Although the Democrats have been gloating about how their going to beat the Republicans for the Presidency in 2008, ever since the 2006 congressional elections, the summer has revealed what might be a very tight election with Obama only averaging a lead of 3 points. McCain is not likely to win the popular vote by a large margin, maybe 1 to 3 points, and I'd say if he does win, its equally likely that he will lose the popular vote.

Provided the candidates remain within three points of each other, this election could be decided by as little as one state and a few thousand votes.

Next week should be interesting.
Click to expand...

i'd say that this is a fair assessment.

the only way i see this election opening up is if one pair of candidates make fools of themselves at the debates (or some huge scandal becomes public, who knows).

and palin may have the "she didn't do as bad as expected" bonus point thing going for her.
 
Strongbow said:
Interesting to note that they were already up 6 points on McCain before Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama got a chance to speak on Wendsday and Thursday. After Bill Clinton and Joe Biden got to speak they were up to 8 points. After the big night on Thursday with Obama's speach they remained flat in the polls at 8 points. They were actually up by more back in July when at one point that had a 9 point lead.


There is a definite ceiling on how high McCain can get over Obama, and its probably realistically about 3 points given the political environment this year. I don't think the Republicans could win the popular vote in November by more than 3 points. There may be some polls that push them higher than that next week, but I doubt those will be accurate.

Obama has led all summer long by an average of 3 points. If that margin were to hold up for the popular vote in the general election, its still possible for McCain to win if he picks up the right states.

So, all the Republicans need to have now is the 8 point margin that Obama is ahead by brought down to at least 3 point margin to at least claim that picking Palin did no harm. If its a tie or a lead of 1 to 3 points, I'd say she is probably a net positive pick for the campaign. If next Saturday team Obama is still ahead by 4 or more points despite the Palin pick and the Republican convention, then I think those questioning her ability to help McCain might be right.

Although the Democrats have been gloating about how their going to beat the Republicans for the Presidency in 2008, ever since the 2006 congressional elections, the summer has revealed what might be a very tight election with Obama only averaging a lead of 3 points. McCain is not likely to win the popular vote by a large margin, maybe 1 to 3 points, and I'd say if he does win, its equally likely that he will lose the popular vote.

Provided the candidates remain within three points of each other, this election could be decided by as little as one state and a few thousand votes.

Next week should be interesting.
Click to expand...


ETA: Didn't see you just now responded to my earlier posting of this in the other thread...

Reposting something I posted earlier in the presidential election thread, with some changes...

Just doing some electoral college math...using delegate numbers from 2004.

Assuming Obama/Biden gets the following:

California 55
Oregon 7
Washington 11
Illinois 21
Wisconsin 10
Minnesota 9
Maine 4
New Hampshire 4
Vermont 3
Massachusetts 12
Rhode Island 4
Connecticut 7
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Hawaii 4
Michigan 17
Iowa 7
DC 3
_____
They would have 237 delegates.

Assuming McCain/Palin gets the following:

Kentucky 8
Tennessee 11
North Carolina 15
South Carolina 8
West Virginia 5
Georgia 15
Alabama 9
Mississippi 6
Lousiana 9
Arkansas 6
Missouri 11
Texas 34
Oklahoma 7
Kansas 6
Nebraska 5
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Montana 3
Wyoming 3
Colorado 9
Utah 5
Arizona 10
New Mexico 5
Nevada 5
Idaho 4
Alaska 3
Indiana 11
____
They would have 219 delegates.

The score would be 237-219 with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida still in play.

Ohio = 20 delegates
Pennsylvania = 21 delegates
Virginia = 13 delegates
Florida = 27 delegates

Obama/Biden has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania at the moment, a lead by about half as much in Ohio and Florida, and Virginia apparently is nearly tied.

Mathematically, if Obama/Biden wins any two of those four states, they break the big 270 mark and win. All they have to do is split them. Considering they are leading three of them, and more or less tied in the other one, this seems like a rather likely scenario.

Of course, you could say that Michigan isn't a sure thing for Obama/Biden(even though it went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 and Obama/Biden are leading it right now), and moving its 17 delegates to McCain/Palin's column would effectively reverse the score and make it so THEY only need to split those last four to win, but I think Michigan is more likely to go Obama/Biden's way.

You could also say that Indiana might go Obama/Biden's way with its 11 delegates, in which case Florida's 27 delegates alone would put Obama/Biden over the top.

Also, I read that Obama/Biden was leading in New Mexico as recently as three weeks ago, and I keep hearing that Colorado is very much in play as well, and those two states carry a combined 14 additional delegates that could end up giving Obama/Biden that much more cushion if they win them.

Just some thoughts, and while I know that things can change and that it could be a very close election, I'm also just pointing out that if Obama/Biden were to get both New Mexico and Colorado and two of the four states I mentioned earlier, they could conceivably reach 300 delegates. One would be a fool to say that it couldn't very well end up being a very close race, but one would also be a fool to say that it couldn't also end up being a big win for Obama/Biden. It'll be interesting to see if the RNC changes anything.
 
namkcuR said:
Reposting something I posted earlier in the presidential election thread, with some changes...

Just doing some electoral college math...using delegate numbers from 2004.

Assuming Obama/Biden gets the following:

California 55
Oregon 7
Washington 11
Illinois 21
Wisconsin 10
Minnesota 9
Maine 4
New Hampshire 4
Vermont 3
Massachusetts 12
Rhode Island 4
Connecticut 7
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Hawaii 4
Michigan 17
Iowa 7
DC 3
_____
They would have 237 delegates.

Assuming McCain/Palin gets the following:

Kentucky 8
Tennessee 11
North Carolina 15
South Carolina 8
West Virginia 5
Georgia 15
Alabama 9
Mississippi 6
Lousiana 9
Arkansas 6
Missouri 11
Texas 34
Oklahoma 7
Kansas 6
Nebraska 5
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Montana 3
Wyoming 3
Colorado 9
Utah 5
Arizona 10
New Mexico 5
Nevada 5
Idaho 4
Alaska 3
Indiana 11
____
They would have 219 delegates.

The score would be 237-219 with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida still in play.

Ohio = 20 delegates
Pennsylvania = 21 delegates
Virginia = 13 delegates
Florida = 27 delegates

Obama/Biden has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania at the moment, a lead by about half as much in Ohio and Florida, and Virginia apparently is nearly tied.

Mathematically, if Obama/Biden wins any two of those four states, they break the big 270 mark and win. All they have to do is split them. Considering they are leading three of them, and more or less tied in the other one, this seems like a rather likely scenario.

Of course, you could say that Michigan isn't a sure thing for Obama/Biden(even though it went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 and Obama/Biden are leading it right now), and moving its 17 delegates to McCain/Palin's column would effectively reverse the score and make it so THEY only need to split those last four to win, but I think Michigan is more likely to go Obama/Biden's way.

You could also say that Indiana might go Obama/Biden's way with its 11 delegates, in which case Florida's 27 delegates alone would put Obama/Biden over the top.

Also, I read that Obama/Biden was leading in New Mexico as recently as three weeks ago, and I keep hearing that Colorado is very much in play as well, and those two states carry a combined 14 additional delegates that could end up giving Obama/Biden that much more cushion if they win them.

Just some thoughts, and while I know that things can change and that it could be a very close election, I'm also just pointing out that if Obama/Biden were to get both New Mexico and Colorado and two of the four states I mentioned earlier, they could conceivably reach 300 delegates. One would be a fool to say that it couldn't very well end up being a very close race, but one would also be a fool to say that it couldn't also end up being a big win for Obama/Biden. It'll be interesting to see if the RNC changes anything.
Click to expand...

Based on the polling data, an average lead of 3 points nationally since he won the nomination does not suggest a big win for Obama at all, and it could result in a loss because of the electoral college.
 
martha said:
While this a great campaign brochure sentence, I remain unconvinced. Any examples of these activities?
Click to expand...

For starters:

She stopped Ted Stevens "Bridge To No Where" a Republican.
She stopped taking a limo to work to save the tax payers money.

She cut other wasteful spending of the tax payers money.

With the money she saved the tax payers she put it into a savings account for the state of Alaska.

The same way Bobby Jindal cleaned uo La., she has cleaned up Alaska.
And when the next hurricane hits La, at least those citizens under a Rep Gov,-Jindal will be able to take care of themselves.

<>
 
Irvine511 said:
considering most conventions give, on average, a 3-4 point bounce, and Obama has easily doubled that, it seems as if it was a very successful convention indeed.

we shall see what happens next week.
Click to expand...

Btw I've seen 2 polls one at Obama plus 4, and one plus 8.

And now boo, boo don't look now here's a Zogby poll having Mac up by 2:


Released: August 30, 2008
Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race!

Brash McCain pick of AK Gov. Palin neutralizes historic Obama speech, stunts the Dems' convention bounce


UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.


Data from this poll is available here


The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.


In other words, the race is a dead heat.


The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.


After the McCain "Veep" announcement on Friday, Palin was almost immediately hailed as a strong conservative, and those voters have rallied to the GOP ticket, the survey shows. Republicans gather in St. Paul, Minnesota this week to officially nominate McCain and Palin as their presidential ticket.

Does the selection of Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain's chances of winning the presidential election in November?
8/29-30
Zogby Poll One Week Ago: Does Biden Help or Hurt Obama?

Will help him
52%
43%

Will hurt him
29%
22%

Will make no difference
10%
26%

Not sure
10%
9%


Overall, 52% said the selection of Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee helps the Republican ticket, compared to 29% who said it hurt. Another 10% said it made no difference, while 10% were unsure. Among independent voters, 52% said it helps, while 26% said it would hurt. Among women, 48% said it would help, while 29% said it would hurt the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, the choice was a big hit - as 87% said it would help, and just 3% said it would hurt.

Pollster John Zogby: "Palin is not to be underestimated. Her real strength is that she is authentic, a real mom, an outdoors person, a small town mayor (hey, she has dealt with a small town city council - that alone could be preparation for staring down Vladimir Putin, right?). She is also a reformer."

"A very important demographic in this election is going to be the politically independent woman, 15% of whom in our latest survey are undecided."

"In the final analysis, this election will be about Obama vs. McCain. Obama has staked out ground as the new JFK - a new generation, literally and figuratively, a new face of America to the world, a man who can cross lines and work with both sides. But McCain is the modern day Harry Truman - with lots of DC experience, he knows what is wrong and dysfunctional with Washington and how to fix it, and he has chosen a running mate who is about as far away from Washington as he could find.
"This contest is likely to be very close until the weekend before the election - then the dam may break and support may flood one way or the other."

The interactive survey shows that 22% of those voters who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in their primary elections or caucus earlier this year are now supporting John McCain.

Among those who said they shop regularly at Wal-Mart - a demographic group that Zogby has found to be both "value" and "values" voters - Obama is getting walloped by McCain. Winning 62% support from weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, McCain wins these voters at a rate similar to what President Bush won in 2004. Obama wins 24% support from these voters.

Other demographic details are fairly predictable, showing that the McCain/Palin ticket heads into its convention on Monday with numbers that may fuel an optimism they may not have expected, and that many would not have predicted, especially after Obama's speech Thursday night.


Still, storm clouds remain on the horizon for the Republicans, a four-way horserace contest between McCain, Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr and liberal independent Ralph Nader shows.


The Four-way Horserace
Total
Dems
GOPers
Indies

Obama
44%
85%
4%
39%

McCain
43%
8%
87%
33%

Barr
5%
2%
4%
11%

Nader
2%
1%
1%
4%

Other/not sure
7%
7%
5%
12%





The online survey was conducted Aug. 29-30, 2008, and included 2,020 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
 
U2isthebest said:
Exactly. I'm still wondering what that has to do with anything. He didn't pick Kaine because a 3 year governor with no national campaign or policy experience is not ready to be president.
Click to expand...


So, you dismiss the executive experience of the only woman in the race, while glossing over the lack of said experience for the three male candidates.:hmm:

Youse Dems aren't very consistent, are you?
 
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