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Old 08-30-2008, 06:53 PM   #441
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Old 08-30-2008, 07:03 PM   #442
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
considering most conventions give, on average, a 3-4 point bounce, and Obama has easily doubled that, it seems as if it was a very successful convention indeed.

we shall see what happens next week.
Interesting to note that they were already up 6 points on McCain before Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama got a chance to speak on Wendsday and Thursday. After Bill Clinton and Joe Biden got to speak they were up to 8 points. After the big night on Thursday with Obama's speach they remained flat in the polls at 8 points. They were actually up by more back in July when at one point that had a 9 point lead.


There is a definite ceiling on how high McCain can get over Obama, and its probably realistically about 3 points given the political environment this year. I don't think the Republicans could win the popular vote in November by more than 3 points. There may be some polls that push them higher than that next week, but I doubt those will be accurate.

Obama has led all summer long by an average of 3 points. If that margin were to hold up for the popular vote in the general election, its still possible for McCain to win if he picks up the right states.

So, all the Republicans need to have now is the 8 point margin that Obama is ahead by brought down to at least 3 point margin to at least claim that picking Palin did no harm. If its a tie or a lead of 1 to 3 points, I'd say she is probably a net positive pick for the campaign. If next Saturday team Obama is still ahead by 4 or more points despite the Palin pick and the Republican convention, then I think those questioning her ability to help McCain might be right.

Although the Democrats have been gloating about how their going to beat the Republicans for the Presidency in 2008, ever since the 2006 congressional elections, the summer has revealed what might be a very tight election with Obama only averaging a lead of 3 points. McCain is not likely to win the popular vote by a large margin, maybe 1 to 3 points, and I'd say if he does win, its equally likely that he will lose the popular vote.

Provided the candidates remain within three points of each other, this election could be decided by as little as one state and a few thousand votes.

Next week should be interesting.
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Old 08-30-2008, 07:15 PM   #443
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Originally Posted by Strongbow View Post
Interesting to note that they were already up 6 points on McCain before Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama got a chance to speak on Wendsday and Thursday. After Bill Clinton and Joe Biden got to speak they were up to 8 points. After the big night on Thursday with Obama's speach they remained flat in the polls at 8 points. They were actually up by more back in July when at one point that had a 9 point lead.


There is a definite ceiling on how high McCain can get over Obama, and its probably realistically about 3 points given the political environment this year. I don't think the Republicans could win the popular vote in November by more than 3 points. There may be some polls that push them higher than that next week, but I doubt those will be accurate.

Obama has led all summer long by an average of 3 points. If that margin were to hold up for the popular vote in the general election, its still possible for McCain to win if he picks up the right states.

So, all the Republicans need to have now is the 8 point margin that Obama is ahead by brought down to at least 3 point margin to at least claim that picking Palin did no harm. If its a tie or a lead of 1 to 3 points, I'd say she is probably a net positive pick for the campaign. If next Saturday team Obama is still ahead by 4 or more points despite the Palin pick and the Republican convention, then I think those questioning her ability to help McCain might be right.

Although the Democrats have been gloating about how their going to beat the Republicans for the Presidency in 2008, ever since the 2006 congressional elections, the summer has revealed what might be a very tight election with Obama only averaging a lead of 3 points. McCain is not likely to win the popular vote by a large margin, maybe 1 to 3 points, and I'd say if he does win, its equally likely that he will lose the popular vote.

Provided the candidates remain within three points of each other, this election could be decided by as little as one state and a few thousand votes.

Next week should be interesting.
i'd say that this is a fair assessment.

the only way i see this election opening up is if one pair of candidates make fools of themselves at the debates (or some huge scandal becomes public, who knows).

and palin may have the "she didn't do as bad as expected" bonus point thing going for her.
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Old 08-30-2008, 07:29 PM   #444
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Old 08-30-2008, 07:31 PM   #445
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Originally Posted by Strongbow View Post
Interesting to note that they were already up 6 points on McCain before Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama got a chance to speak on Wendsday and Thursday. After Bill Clinton and Joe Biden got to speak they were up to 8 points. After the big night on Thursday with Obama's speach they remained flat in the polls at 8 points. They were actually up by more back in July when at one point that had a 9 point lead.


There is a definite ceiling on how high McCain can get over Obama, and its probably realistically about 3 points given the political environment this year. I don't think the Republicans could win the popular vote in November by more than 3 points. There may be some polls that push them higher than that next week, but I doubt those will be accurate.

Obama has led all summer long by an average of 3 points. If that margin were to hold up for the popular vote in the general election, its still possible for McCain to win if he picks up the right states.

So, all the Republicans need to have now is the 8 point margin that Obama is ahead by brought down to at least 3 point margin to at least claim that picking Palin did no harm. If its a tie or a lead of 1 to 3 points, I'd say she is probably a net positive pick for the campaign. If next Saturday team Obama is still ahead by 4 or more points despite the Palin pick and the Republican convention, then I think those questioning her ability to help McCain might be right.

Although the Democrats have been gloating about how their going to beat the Republicans for the Presidency in 2008, ever since the 2006 congressional elections, the summer has revealed what might be a very tight election with Obama only averaging a lead of 3 points. McCain is not likely to win the popular vote by a large margin, maybe 1 to 3 points, and I'd say if he does win, its equally likely that he will lose the popular vote.

Provided the candidates remain within three points of each other, this election could be decided by as little as one state and a few thousand votes.

Next week should be interesting.

ETA: Didn't see you just now responded to my earlier posting of this in the other thread...

Reposting something I posted earlier in the presidential election thread, with some changes...

Just doing some electoral college math...using delegate numbers from 2004.

Assuming Obama/Biden gets the following:

California 55
Oregon 7
Washington 11
Illinois 21
Wisconsin 10
Minnesota 9
Maine 4
New Hampshire 4
Vermont 3
Massachusetts 12
Rhode Island 4
Connecticut 7
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Hawaii 4
Michigan 17
Iowa 7
DC 3
_____
They would have 237 delegates.

Assuming McCain/Palin gets the following:

Kentucky 8
Tennessee 11
North Carolina 15
South Carolina 8
West Virginia 5
Georgia 15
Alabama 9
Mississippi 6
Lousiana 9
Arkansas 6
Missouri 11
Texas 34
Oklahoma 7
Kansas 6
Nebraska 5
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Montana 3
Wyoming 3
Colorado 9
Utah 5
Arizona 10
New Mexico 5
Nevada 5
Idaho 4
Alaska 3
Indiana 11
____
They would have 219 delegates.

The score would be 237-219 with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida still in play.

Ohio = 20 delegates
Pennsylvania = 21 delegates
Virginia = 13 delegates
Florida = 27 delegates

Obama/Biden has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania at the moment, a lead by about half as much in Ohio and Florida, and Virginia apparently is nearly tied.

Mathematically, if Obama/Biden wins any two of those four states, they break the big 270 mark and win. All they have to do is split them. Considering they are leading three of them, and more or less tied in the other one, this seems like a rather likely scenario.

Of course, you could say that Michigan isn't a sure thing for Obama/Biden(even though it went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 and Obama/Biden are leading it right now), and moving its 17 delegates to McCain/Palin's column would effectively reverse the score and make it so THEY only need to split those last four to win, but I think Michigan is more likely to go Obama/Biden's way.

You could also say that Indiana might go Obama/Biden's way with its 11 delegates, in which case Florida's 27 delegates alone would put Obama/Biden over the top.

Also, I read that Obama/Biden was leading in New Mexico as recently as three weeks ago, and I keep hearing that Colorado is very much in play as well, and those two states carry a combined 14 additional delegates that could end up giving Obama/Biden that much more cushion if they win them.

Just some thoughts, and while I know that things can change and that it could be a very close election, I'm also just pointing out that if Obama/Biden were to get both New Mexico and Colorado and two of the four states I mentioned earlier, they could conceivably reach 300 delegates. One would be a fool to say that it couldn't very well end up being a very close race, but one would also be a fool to say that it couldn't also end up being a big win for Obama/Biden. It'll be interesting to see if the RNC changes anything.
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Old 08-30-2008, 07:36 PM   #446
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Originally Posted by namkcuR View Post
Reposting something I posted earlier in the presidential election thread, with some changes...

Just doing some electoral college math...using delegate numbers from 2004.

Assuming Obama/Biden gets the following:

California 55
Oregon 7
Washington 11
Illinois 21
Wisconsin 10
Minnesota 9
Maine 4
New Hampshire 4
Vermont 3
Massachusetts 12
Rhode Island 4
Connecticut 7
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Hawaii 4
Michigan 17
Iowa 7
DC 3
_____
They would have 237 delegates.

Assuming McCain/Palin gets the following:

Kentucky 8
Tennessee 11
North Carolina 15
South Carolina 8
West Virginia 5
Georgia 15
Alabama 9
Mississippi 6
Lousiana 9
Arkansas 6
Missouri 11
Texas 34
Oklahoma 7
Kansas 6
Nebraska 5
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Montana 3
Wyoming 3
Colorado 9
Utah 5
Arizona 10
New Mexico 5
Nevada 5
Idaho 4
Alaska 3
Indiana 11
____
They would have 219 delegates.

The score would be 237-219 with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida still in play.

Ohio = 20 delegates
Pennsylvania = 21 delegates
Virginia = 13 delegates
Florida = 27 delegates

Obama/Biden has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania at the moment, a lead by about half as much in Ohio and Florida, and Virginia apparently is nearly tied.

Mathematically, if Obama/Biden wins any two of those four states, they break the big 270 mark and win. All they have to do is split them. Considering they are leading three of them, and more or less tied in the other one, this seems like a rather likely scenario.

Of course, you could say that Michigan isn't a sure thing for Obama/Biden(even though it went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 and Obama/Biden are leading it right now), and moving its 17 delegates to McCain/Palin's column would effectively reverse the score and make it so THEY only need to split those last four to win, but I think Michigan is more likely to go Obama/Biden's way.

You could also say that Indiana might go Obama/Biden's way with its 11 delegates, in which case Florida's 27 delegates alone would put Obama/Biden over the top.

Also, I read that Obama/Biden was leading in New Mexico as recently as three weeks ago, and I keep hearing that Colorado is very much in play as well, and those two states carry a combined 14 additional delegates that could end up giving Obama/Biden that much more cushion if they win them.

Just some thoughts, and while I know that things can change and that it could be a very close election, I'm also just pointing out that if Obama/Biden were to get both New Mexico and Colorado and two of the four states I mentioned earlier, they could conceivably reach 300 delegates. One would be a fool to say that it couldn't very well end up being a very close race, but one would also be a fool to say that it couldn't also end up being a big win for Obama/Biden. It'll be interesting to see if the RNC changes anything.
Based on the polling data, an average lead of 3 points nationally since he won the nomination does not suggest a big win for Obama at all, and it could result in a loss because of the electoral college.
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:04 PM   #447
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
yes- lets see what happens next week.


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Old 08-30-2008, 08:12 PM   #448
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Originally Posted by martha View Post
While this a great campaign brochure sentence, I remain unconvinced. Any examples of these activities?
For starters:

She stopped Ted Stevens "Bridge To No Where" a Republican.
She stopped taking a limo to work to save the tax payers money.

She cut other wasteful spending of the tax payers money.

With the money she saved the tax payers she put it into a savings account for the state of Alaska.

The same way Bobby Jindal cleaned uo La., she has cleaned up Alaska.
And when the next hurricane hits La, at least those citizens under a Rep Gov,-Jindal will be able to take care of themselves.

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Old 08-30-2008, 08:18 PM   #449
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
considering most conventions give, on average, a 3-4 point bounce, and Obama has easily doubled that, it seems as if it was a very successful convention indeed.

we shall see what happens next week.
Btw I've seen 2 polls one at Obama plus 4, and one plus 8.

And now boo, boo don't look now here's a Zogby poll having Mac up by 2:


Released: August 30, 2008
Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race!

Brash McCain pick of AK Gov. Palin neutralizes historic Obama speech, stunts the Dems' convention bounce


UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.


Data from this poll is available here


The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.



In other words, the race is a dead heat.


The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.


After the McCain "Veep" announcement on Friday, Palin was almost immediately hailed as a strong conservative, and those voters have rallied to the GOP ticket, the survey shows. Republicans gather in St. Paul, Minnesota this week to officially nominate McCain and Palin as their presidential ticket.

Does the selection of Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain's chances of winning the presidential election in November?
8/29-30
Zogby Poll One Week Ago: Does Biden Help or Hurt Obama?

Will help him
52%
43%


Will hurt him
29%
22%

Will make no difference
10%
26%

Not sure
10%
9%


Overall, 52% said the selection of Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee helps the Republican ticket, compared to 29% who said it hurt. Another 10% said it made no difference, while 10% were unsure. Among independent voters, 52% said it helps, while 26% said it would hurt. Among women, 48% said it would help, while 29% said it would hurt the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, the choice was a big hit - as 87% said it would help, and just 3% said it would hurt.

Pollster John Zogby: "Palin is not to be underestimated. Her real strength is that she is authentic, a real mom, an outdoors person, a small town mayor (hey, she has dealt with a small town city council - that alone could be preparation for staring down Vladimir Putin, right?). She is also a reformer."

"A very important demographic in this election is going to be the politically independent woman, 15% of whom in our latest survey are undecided."

"In the final analysis, this election will be about Obama vs. McCain. Obama has staked out ground as the new JFK - a new generation, literally and figuratively, a new face of America to the world, a man who can cross lines and work with both sides. But McCain is the modern day Harry Truman - with lots of DC experience, he knows what is wrong and dysfunctional with Washington and how to fix it, and he has chosen a running mate who is about as far away from Washington as he could find.
"This contest is likely to be very close until the weekend before the election - then the dam may break and support may flood one way or the other."

The interactive survey shows that 22% of those voters who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in their primary elections or caucus earlier this year are now supporting John McCain.

Among those who said they shop regularly at Wal-Mart - a demographic group that Zogby has found to be both "value" and "values" voters - Obama is getting walloped by McCain. Winning 62% support from weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, McCain wins these voters at a rate similar to what President Bush won in 2004. Obama wins 24% support from these voters.

Other demographic details are fairly predictable, showing that the McCain/Palin ticket heads into its convention on Monday with numbers that may fuel an optimism they may not have expected, and that many would not have predicted, especially after Obama's speech Thursday night.


Still, storm clouds remain on the horizon for the Republicans, a four-way horserace contest between McCain, Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr and liberal independent Ralph Nader shows.


The Four-way Horserace
Total
Dems
GOPers
Indies

Obama
44%
85%
4%
39%

McCain
43%
8%
87%
33%

Barr
5%
2%
4%
11%

Nader
2%
1%
1%
4%

Other/not sure
7%
7%
5%
12%





The online survey was conducted Aug. 29-30, 2008, and included 2,020 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:24 PM   #450
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Exactly. I'm still wondering what that has to do with anything. He didn't pick Kaine because a 3 year governor with no national campaign or policy experience is not ready to be president.

So, you dismiss the executive experience of the only woman in the race, while glossing over the lack of said experience for the three male candidates.

Youse Dems aren't very consistent, are you?
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:30 PM   #451
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So, you dismiss the executive experience of the only woman in the race, while glossing over the lack of said experience for the three male candidates.

Youse Dems aren't very consistent, are you?
Have you not read my previous posts? I'm not just talking about national governing experience. I'm talking about national policy-making experience which to me counts for far more. Obama, Biden, and McCain all have experience making policy decisions on a national level. They've all studied, debated, and voted on issues that affect the entire nation. A governor only focuses on issues that affect his/her state. I'm not saying a governor is inherently unqualified to be president, but until they've proven themselves on a national level through primary and general election campaigns they are at a disadvantage. Bill Clinton, for example, proved through the long campaign process in 1992 that he understood the issues that faced the entire nation and that he was capable of being president. He debated, he created his policies and laid out his plan for the nation. He also is far more highly educated than Palin. I'm not saying she's not intelligent, but a person with a Bachelor's degree in Journalism, who has never studied government or the political system in higher learning, has no business being Commander in Chief.
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:37 PM   #452
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Have you not read my previous posts? I'm not just talking about national governing experience. I'm talking about national policy-making experience which to me counts for far more. Obama, Biden, and McCain all have experience making policy decisions on a national level. They've all studied, debated, and voted on issues that affect the entire nation. A governor only focuses on issues that affect his/her state. I'm not saying a governor is inherently unqualified to be president, but until they've proven themselves on a national level through primary and general election campaigns they are at a disadvantage. Bill Clinton, for example, proved through the long campaign process in 1992 that he understood the issues that faced the entire nation and that he was capable of being president. He debated, he created his policies and laid out his plan for the nation. He also is far more highly educated than Palin. I'm not saying she's not intelligent, but a person with a Bachelor's degree in Journalism, who has never studied government or the political system in higher learning, has no business being Commander in Chief.
I respectfully diaagree. I see absolutely no reason why someone who has studied government or the political system in higher learning should be ANY more qualified to be President, as opposed to someone who has studied, say, engineering, science or economics. Or even someone who has studied nothing (in the formal sense). In fact, most of the people I know with masters degrees in politics and the like would be pretty useless in a real political job. They wouldn't be prepared to get their hands dirty, frankly.

The UK had a Prime Minister as recently as 1990-1997 who had NO DEGREE WHATEVER - not even a Bachelor's degree.

Frankly, one of the things that's wrong with politics, and not just in the US - is too many policy wonks, lobbyists and over-qualified political theorists.

Having said that, I accept that Clinton, though a true borne policy wonk, was a pretty good President. And one of the things that helped him become a good President was that, like Palin, he had the very, very valuable experience of running a state.
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:38 PM   #453
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I respectfully diaagree. I see absolutely no reason why someone who has never studied government or the political system in higher learning should be ANY more qualified to be President, as opposed to someone who has studied, say, engineering, science or economics. Or even someone who has studied nothing (in the formal sense). In fact, most of the people I know with masters degrees in politics and the like would be pretty useless in a real political job. They wouldn't be prepared to get their hands dirty, frankly.

The UK had a Prime Minister as recently as 1990-1997 who had NO DEGREE WHATEVER - not even a Bachelor's degree.

Frankly, one of the things that's wrong with politics, and not just in the US - is too many policy wonks, lobbyists and over-qualified political theorists.

Having said that, I accept that Clinton, though a true borne policy wonk, was a pretty good President. And one of the things that helped him become a good President was that, like Palin, he had the very, very valuable experience of running a state.
I see your point as well, and like you said, we'll have to agree to disagree.
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:43 PM   #454
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:48 PM   #455
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I believe your post included references to opposing BIG OIL. And Alaska doesn't collect income tax, so what tax payers was she protecting? And how about some examples of the "wasteful spending" she cut?


Quote:
Originally Posted by diamond View Post
For starters:

She stopped Ted Stevens "Bridge To No Where" a Republican.
She stopped taking a limo to work to save the tax payers money.

She cut other wasteful spending of the tax payers money.

With the money she saved the tax payers she put it into a savings account for the state of Alaska.

The same way Bobby Jindal cleaned uo La., she has cleaned up Alaska.
And when the next hurricane hits La, at least those citizens under a Rep Gov,-Jindal will be able to take care of themselves.

<>
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:50 PM   #456
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And Alaska doesn't collect income tax,
Lucky bastards. I think I'm moving to Alaska.
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:55 PM   #457
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Executive experience is defined as having run a state or a business, right?

A presidential campaign is a business, you know. A business of which the candidate, namely Obama or McCain, is the CEO. They're big businesses with departments for communications/speechwriting, advertising, policy, scheduling, fundraising, etc etc. Each of the departments has a director, usually chosen and appointed by the candidate him/herself. Decisions are made every day, and the biggest/most important ones are no doubt made by the head honcho - the candidate. It's a business and the candidate - Obama or McCain - is running the whole show, has the final say on everything and bears the ultimate responsibility and/or blame for everything.

Considering that this business of Obama's has raised anywhere from 265 to 340 million dollars so far this election cycle(aka since its foundation) and has in the neighborhood of 60 to 70 million dollars on hand right now, and considering it managed to fill a stadium with 84,000 people the other night to support it, and since it has the support of probably 55-60 million people nationwide, and since he has been complimented by many for how well he's run his campaign, I'd say he's doing a hell of a job running this business of his, and since this business will be nearly two years old when all is said and done, I'd say that's some valuable executive experience.

And I don't know the exact numbers for McCain, but if he's still here, I guess he's doing an ok job(though not as good as Obama) running his business too.
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:56 PM   #458
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Lucky bastards. I think I'm moving to Alaska.
mass is putting it up for a referendum. it would cut the state budget by approximately $12 billion.
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Old 08-30-2008, 08:56 PM   #459
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Originally Posted by martha View Post
I believe your post included references to opposing BIG OIL. And Alaska doesn't collect income tax, so what tax payers was she protecting? And how about some examples of the "wasteful spending" she cut?

see limo example.

and if time permits i will find those items for you or perhaps a fair and balanced news network will point out the truth of her record.

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Old 08-30-2008, 08:57 PM   #460
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Well, anyway, one thing that does seem to lend some degree of credence to the posts of the Obama supporters here is the reaction of former Bush speechwriter David Frum:-

Quote:
David Frum, President George W Bush’s former speech-writer, warned: “The McCain campaign’s slogan is ‘country first’. If it were your decision, and you were putting your country first, would you put an untested small-town mayor a heartbeat from the presidency?”
John McCain met running mate Sarah Palin just once - Times Online
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