My predictions on the war with Iraq.

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MadelynIris

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Within the next 4 weeks, President Bush will appear on television on a suprise primetime news conference and announce that US/UK bombers are minutes away from destroying several targets.

He will then show the world satellite images of these targets to prove of their existence. The next morning, we'll see satellite images of their non-existence. ;)

Saddams's reaction will determine the playout of the rest of the war. If he is determined to retaliate and rally his troops to attack our current positions, then hopefully we'll have the right people in place to depose of Saddam from within (I think they've been working on this for some time). We will support that cause with firepower and troops if need be, but will not go head to head with regular army against regular army.

Thoughts?

Mark
 
War is a foregone conclusion. I think Bush has been merely window dressing that there is any alternative to this war. He's been planning it even before 9/11, IMO.

It's all a study in media manipulation.

Melon
 
melon said:
War is a foregone conclusion. I think Bush has been merely window dressing that there is any alternative to this war. He's been planning it even before 9/11, IMO.

It's all a study in media manipulation.

Melon

About the smartest thing I've heard said about the whole thing actually.

Welcome to ZOO TV Part II
 
How the war develops will depend on how much of the Iraqi military decides to fight. There could be very intense fighting if the Republican guard divisions fight to the death once they are engaged, just like they did during the ground war of the first Gulf War. The Iraqi regular army, unlike the Republican Guard, probably will not fight.

But its really difficult to say. I'd say the whole thing will last anywhere from 1 week to 3 weeks at the most. The exact length and details will really be dependent on how much of the entire Iraqi military resist the operation.

From what I have read there will be a very short Air Campaign or in fact no air campaign prior to ground units rushing into Iraq. A simultanous air and ground attack designed to bring any fighting to an end as soon as possible. The whole thing lasting not more than 3 weeks. Of course this is very speculative.

But there still is a small chance that war can be avoided. Saddam may decide to leave the country. HIGHLY Unlikely, but not impossible. Saddam may decide to comply with the resolutions, again highly unlikely.

Although military action becomes likely after February 15 when all US forces will be in place, Bush may not necessarily go in late February or early March. Believe it or not, the US military is ready to conduct military operations in the middle of summer, in the middle east heat, if there is a delay.
 
MadelynIris said:
Sorry, I'm not predicting that there will be a war with Iraq... just predicting how it will begin.

LOL...true.

I think a large air assault is very likely, considering the nature of military strikes over the past decade. The heavy cruise missile release wouldn't surprise me.

Melon
 
Cow of Seas, I like your comments..... they really make me grin...

I'm not being sarcastic, i read your comments on the Iraq/Pakistan thread... I really think you can say alot without writing a lot.

peace
 
I believe there are US special ops on the ground right now.

I beleive there will be some moderate bombing from the air (military targets)

I believe the US troops will have the location of Saddam surrounded within the first 48 hours and will then fight off any resistance from Iraqi ground forces.

As the gulf war was a lesson in attacking from the flanks, I believe this war will be ver different and will be an example of attacking from the inside out.

The US will create a central troop allocation in Baghdad to mentally wear down the Iraqis by taking the capital quickly and swiftly, then like a doughnut the inside forces witll work their way out and the inside forces will work their way in.

Remember - this time it is not about bombing the country and scaring the Iraqis out of Kuwait, it is about taking over the government and ridding the land of Saddam - otherwise this whole thing would be pointless...
 
Amna said:
Cow of Seas, I like your comments..... they really make me grin...

I'm not being sarcastic, i read your comments on the Iraq/Pakistan thread... I really think you can say alot without writing a lot.

peace

thank you.
 
Last time they said that they were going to attack by sea. THey faked it. THis time they are leaking missles.....

I am leaning Ouizy's way.
 
The inside out senerio could work, but it seems to be predicated on knowing where Saddam is, which is highly unlikely since he is always on the move. In addition, the only forces that could be in a position to do such an operation would be light infantry forces. Any time you use light infantry, they run the risk of being pinned down by heavier Iraqi forces.

I'm not saying it won't happen or that its not possible because this is how Panama operation was done in 1989. But the Panamanian military only number a few thousand with few weapon systems compared to the Iraqi military that at full strength is 430,000 with 2,200 tanks, 2,100 artillery.

The USA has more than 1,000 70 ton M1A2 tanks are in Kuwait and Turkey or on the way. They are from 3 Army heavy Divisions, the 3rd Infantry Division, 4th Infantry Division, and 1st Armored Division. Clearly these forces are not just for show, and have been called in because they will potentially be needed.

When Saddam feels the attack is imminent, he may very well strike first in some way.
 
true,

I simply cannot imagine the US military will take the attack from the outside apporach. Forget the number of miles needed to travel to Baghdad, the neighbors of Iraq are not friendly and we do not have full use of the bases we did in Gulf War 1.

I change my prediction somewhat to air strikes, followed by Blackhawk choppers dropping forces downtown.

Then we go inside out.
 
STING2 said:
I'm not saying it won't happen or that its not possible because this is how Panama operation was done in 1989.

I forgot the reason your honored armed forces went into Panama. Was it because they had nukes? Please enlighten me.

Quote from another thread:

Killing people to save them from dictatorship or ideological
corruption is, of course, an old U.S. government sport.
 
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either way, the smartest way to attack a country (if there is such a thing) is by blitzing them.

im sure thats what the us will do one way or the other. i doubt you will see this last anywhere near as long as the last war.
 
Anyway, without any cynicism: Who knows, will the dollar move up or down compared to the Euro when the war starts? Not that I want to make a quick buck, just that i don?t want to pay the double when I visit your beautiful country the upcoming summer.
 
whenhiphopdrovethebigcars said:


I forgot the reason your honored armed forces went into Panama. Was it because they had nukes? Please enlighten me.

Quote from another thread:

Killing people to save them from dictatorship or ideological
corruption is, of course, an old U.S. government sport.


Quit this shit. This is a peaceful thread without the same retoric in all the other threads around here!

I think the US wants as little life loss (US life) as possible. Of cource this is the objective in all wars i think because of the Us public not be totally on board they will sacrfice Iraqis for this reason. They wont send nearly as many ground troops as last time. They will bomb the shit out of Bagdad and then move in. Alot of bombing since they limit the loss of Americans.
 
The smaller ground force used this time is because of Iraq's degraded conventional abilities from the last war in addition to increases in USA capabilities especially in Precision Guided Munitions, detecting and targeting Iraqi units, and the disimination of information to all USA fighting units on a level not seen before.
 
sting2: in your opinion, what do you really think iraqi senior officials mean when they say that americans will pay dearly at the gates of baghdad? as in, what could they possibly have on this planet that would be effective in such a way?
 
The only thing I could think of would be a nuclear weapon, but it would not make much since to detonate it at the gates of Baghdad. The only thing I can think is that they hope they can negate the USA technological advantages by being able to fight a protracted Urban war. Iraqi fortifications outside of Baghdad will not be much more effective than the Saddam Line was in Kuwait. But the terrian is not as flat and open around Baghdad as it is in Kuwait. Iraqi defenses should be stronger because of this, but not enough to effect the outcome or dramatically increase the cost of achieving that outcome.

Fighting inside the city of Baghdad itself will be difficult, but will also be difficult for Iraqi's as well. The same obstacles to mobility will be there for the Iraqi's that withdraw into the city as they will be for US forces.
 
i see, interesting, thank you.

one more question: where is a great website where i can learn what makes a division, battalion, company, etc.? you always here about these terms, but i never know precisely what theyre made of. any help would be appreciated.
 
Flag Pole Pear,

That can really vary a lot actually but here is the order from smallest to largest and a rough number per unit. This is mainly for infantry units. Artillery, Airdefense Artillery, Armor, and support units will vary.

Squad 10
Platoon 40
Company 160
Battalion 800-1,000
Brigade 4,000-5,000
Division 15,000-18,000
Corp over 50,000
Army over 100,000

Typically there are 3 Brigades in each division, 2 divisions and one brigade in a Corp. And Two Corps in an Army.

There are usually around 4 to 6 Battalions in a Brigade, 4 Company's in a Battalion, 4 Platoons in a company, and 4 squads in a Platoon.

Iraq currently has 23 divisions. 17 regular army divisions, 6 Republican Guard divisions. The USA is deploying about 4 Army Divisions, and two Marine MEFs to the region. Each Marine MEF is a little larger than an Army Division. I do not know the complete scale of the full number of US combat forces that will be deployed to the region but this is the latest that I have seen. I have also seen information that suggest 3 army divisions instead of 4.

Realize that the numbers of US ground combat forces represented by the above divisions do not include support and logistical units and Navy and Airforce personal.
 
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