Michigan Primary predictions

[Lila64]

thanks yolland

[2861U2]

Originally posted by Strongbow


This is the latest poll for Michigan taken 01/06 - 01/07 BEFORE the New Hampshire primary on 01/08. The Poll was done by Rossman Group.


Huckabee 23%
Romney 22%
McCain 18%
Giuliani 8%
Thompson 4%
Paul 3%



McCain's victory in New Hampshire should bump him up into the lead, although it will probably be a smaller margin than it was in New Hampshire. 2nd plus for McCain is the fact that the Democrats are not having their primary so independents will be free to flock to McCain given that Obama won't be around. Huckabee will fade a bit but I'm sure Romney will fight hard here and some are already calling this Romney's last stand.

Thanks for the poll.

Hopefully McCain's NH win coupled with loads of independent votes and the fact that he won in 2000 propel him to another victory.

[2861U2]

New Strategic Vision poll Jan 6-7 shows McCain with a 9 point lead.

[Bonochick]

This primary is said to be costing Michigan between $10 and $15 million...but that's okay, because our state is so financially secure!

Oh, wait...

[Liesje]

Originally posted by Bonochick
This primary is said to be costing Michigan between $10 and $15 million...but that's okay, because our state is so financially secure!

Oh, wait...

Huzzah for having the highest unemployment rate (and climbing), the worst state economy, and the worst housing market!

[LemonMelon]

HRC (not that it'll matter) and Huckabee.

[2861U2]

Unrelated to Michigan, but 2 new post-NH polls show McCain leading in SC, a state I thought would easily go to Huckabee. Still over a week to go, though, a lot can change.


Weird stuff.

[deep]

Michigan, is Romney's last stand.

If he does not get the "gold medal" here
he most likely will move over and support Rudy or McCain

above all else, and perhaps even first - Romney is business man.

he knows he will not be a VP pick-

but, he would love an influential Cabinet post
or Ambassadorship - where he can further pad his vast net worth

[kellyahern]

Originally posted by yolland
Michigan is one of several states being punished by both national parties, but (in their case) more harshly so by the Dems, for having unilaterally bumped up their primary dates against the national parties' wishes.

I think Florida is in a similar situation with the Dems.

[yolland]

Right, those were the two states the Democrats punished by stripping all their delegates and forbidding campaigning. FL, MI, SC, WY, and NH were all stripped of half their delegates by the Republicans.

[maycocksean]

Originally posted by Infinitum98


Can someone explain to me why Iowa and New Hampshire have so much power in every Presidential election. Shouldn't all 50 states have equal power? Why can't we strip down this whole complicated delegates and electoral system and make it a simple popular vote system? One popular vote for all the Republicans for the whole country to choose the Republican candidate. One for the Democrats and then one for the general election. I think that would be much more fair.

Isn't that power more given to them by the media's hyping of the Iowa and New Hampshire decisions? It's not tthe fault of the states that the media (and in turn many voters) tend to quickly annoint the winners in these states as the "inevitable" nominees. After all, I would assume that both states have been first in the primary/caucus elections for a long time though up until only recently (I would argue with the vast increase and influence of television etc) the decision wasn't usually made until the party convention. These day's the convention is basically a "rubber-stamp" event but it hasn't been that way for most of the country's history.

[melon]

Originally posted by maycocksean
Isn't that power more given to them by the media's hyping of the Iowa and New Hampshire decisions?

I'm not sure, considering the deluge of Obama supporters here after his first win in Iowa. People like "a winner."

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

Originally posted by Liesje


Huzzah for having the highest unemployment rate (and climbing), the worst state economy, and the worst housing market!

Yeah!

[Strongbow]

3 new polls, all post New Hampshire Primary are up for the Republican primary in Michigan:



Rasmussen 01/09 - 01/09

Romney 26%
McCain 25%
Huckabee 17%
Thompson 9%
Paul 8%
Giuliani 6%



Mitchell Research 01/09 - 01/10

McCain 23%
Romney 17%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%
Thompson 2%





American Res. Group 01/09 - 01/11

McCain 34%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 9%
Giuliani 5%
Thompson 4%




The Rasmussen poll suggest that the McCain victory in New Hampshire did not provide the overwhelming bump that many have thought it did. I think any sort of bounce is largest right after such an event, so by Tuesday Romney might be able to make some ground back. But this is just one poll, but it does suggest that McCain still has a challenge here.

[Strongbow]

Unfortunately, it appears McCain's lead in Michigan might be gone. There have even been a couple of polls now showing Romney with a 5 point or 8 point lead, although many of these polls do not make it clear if they are just based on registered Republicans or not. Independents and Democrats can vote in the Republican primary. Some reports suggest that only 1 in 6 voters will not be registered Republicans.

If Romney were to actually win Michigan, one wonders how this would impact South Carolina. Who would Romney gain more votes from, Huckabee, McCain or Thompson?

[diamond]

Originally posted by Strongbow
Unfortunately, it appears McCain's lead in Michigan might be gone.

Why is this unfortunate?

dbs

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by diamond


Why is this unfortunate?

dbs

Because McCain is by far the best candidate for president, Republican or Democrat, but in order to maintain the new momentum from the New Hampshire victory, he has to continue to win. Michigan and South Carolina are vital to winning for many reasons.

Looking down the road, the Republicans are going to have a difficult time winning in November, and McCain is really the only Republican candidate that can win, with the possible exception of Guiliani. Mitt Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson would be crushed by the Dems in November. The experience and facts about each of the candidates in addition to the polling that has been done show this.

If Republicans want to win in November, they need to vote for McCain.

[Utoo]

McCain's a douche. For a guy who has based his entire career on an image of staying true to what he believes, the man spent all of 2003-2004 criticizing Bush for his handling of the war, then goes up at the GOP Convention and talks about Bush as if he's the greatest gift to mankind. Why? Posturing for his '08 run. So much for standing up for what you believe in the face of politics.

[2861U2]

Originally posted by Strongbow

If Republicans want to win in November, they need to vote for McCain.

Amen.

[Strongbow]

Originally posted by Utoo
McCain's a douche. For a guy who has based his entire career on an image of staying true to what he believes, the man spent all of 2003-2004 criticizing Bush for his handling of the war, then goes up at the GOP Convention and talks about Bush as if he's the greatest gift to mankind. Why? Posturing for his '08 run. So much for standing up for what you believe in the face of politics.

Despite Bush's handling of the war, McCain was right to support Bush against John Kerry in the 2004 election. You can criticize members of your own party and still vote for them, especially when you see how much better than are than the alternative. McCain has never waivered in his main ideas and beliefs. The only douche's are those who continue to be grossly ignorant about what McCain has done for the United States and the world over the past 50 years.