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Old 01-09-2008, 09:45 AM   #501
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She uses Rovian tactics. How is that change?
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Old 01-09-2008, 09:54 AM   #502
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrsSpringsteen
It was not a race as soon as the media decided it wasn't. We have to stop letting them decide for us.
Exactly. I honestly think the people of New Hampshire gave a big fuck you to the media last night who had declared Hillary's career over. Absolutely disgusting. And maybe this has been said already, I haven't scrolled through to catch up, but Hillary has been terribly ganged up on by the other candidates who all happen to be men. Now, I don't think it's a gender issue for these men (at least not Obama and Edwards), it's probably more of a Clinton Dynasty issue, but for women of a certain age seeing a woman bullied like that and knowing what that feels like it became a gender issue for them. I've been critical of Hillary but she is perfectly competent and would get the job done.

And Edwards is starting to get bitter and angry. I didn't like him last night.
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Old 01-09-2008, 11:35 AM   #503
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Yes in general people in NH do not like to be told what to do and what they are doing before they have done it, that's generally true of the whole New England area (and countrywide). The polls were proven inaccurate as well, unless numerous people changed their minds. But those polls are promoted so much by the media and have a psychological effect on people.

I think Barack Obama would use Rovian tactics too if he thought it could get him elected, any of them would. I would guess he is every bit as ambitious as Hillary Clinton is, he just knows how to put it in a "kinder, gentler" package. And of course there are the gender issues about women being ambitious (and Hillary in particular) and that whole deal.
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Old 01-09-2008, 11:40 AM   #504
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So people care more about sticking it to the media than really voting for what they believe in? That's smart.

I don't believe Obama would stoop to the Rovian tactics. He has different methods. We've already seen Clinton doing it i.e. Bringing up Gordon Brown being tested by al Qaeda.

So why is gender affecting her and race not seemingly affecting Obama?
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Old 01-09-2008, 11:51 AM   #505
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2democrat
So people care more about sticking it to the media than really voting for what they believe in?
That's not what I'm saying, people are smarter than that. They were going to vote how they did regardless, that's what I'm saying. They make up their own minds independently. That's why NH's motto is "live free or die".

I am cynical about all politicians, I like and admire Senator Obama very much but I stand by what I said. I think it could be possible that gender trumps even race when we are talking about Presidential politics. It's not as acceptable anymore to be racist in that regard, but it is still far more acceptable to be sexist. Senator Obama is a man first and foremost as a candidate, not an African American man. Plenty of men have run for President, there's a proven history there. By no means am I downplaying racism or his experience of racism or what he could still experience, I would never do that.

We have come a long way baby but there are still gender issues at play here-you can merely read some posts in this forum to see that. I am not saying and would never say that it controls anything and everything and that Hillary can hang her hat on it for everything, but it is there all the same. There is still racism too- which I am more than willing to admit I don't see nearly as much regarding Senator Obama, mostly because of where I live.
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:04 PM   #506
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Quote:
Originally posted by Anu
Why do I dislike Hillary?

Two examples. There could be many more.

http://jackandjillpolitics.blogspot....t-against.html

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/usa/2008..._contrast.html
Regarding the first one, I see that she supports the measure for reducing sentences for people caught with crack cocaine, but is against anything retroactive.

Is that really so bad for you to dislike her? I can certainly understand not wanting to have over 20,000 crack addicts suddenly back on the street all at once.

As for your second link, the article got it wrong. Click on the link they provide for the vote on limiting roving wiretaps. Clinton was in favor of that. And debate over the Patriot Act was only cutoff once it was realized that the Republicans would not back down. Best to get something out of the reauthorisation than nothing at all.

I thank you for the examples, as obscure as they were. Can't say I agree, though.
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:12 PM   #507
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Quote:
Originally posted by phanan


I thank you for the examples, as obscure as they were. Can't say I agree, though.
I agree, those are some obscure examples, and definately not anything to make one want to vote for Huckabilly

I'm thinking it's something a little more personal.
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:34 PM   #508
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YES WE CAN

"Yes we can"

It was a creed written into the founding documents that declared the
destiny of a nation.

Yes we can.

It was whispered by slaves and abolitionists as they blazed a trail
toward freedom through the darkest of nights.

Yes we can.

It was sung by immigrants as they struck out from distant shores and
pioneers who pushed westward against an unforgiving wilderness.

Yes we can.

It was the call of workers who organized; women who reached for the
ballot; a President who chose the moon as our new frontier; and a King who took us to the mountaintop and pointed the way to the Promised Land.

Yes we can to justice and equality. Yes we can to opportunity and
prosperity. Yes we can heal this nation. Yes we can repair this
world. Yes we can.

And so tomorrow, as we take this campaign South and West; as we learn
that the struggles of the textile worker in Spartanburg are not so
different than the plight of the dishwasher in Las Vegas; that the
hopes of the little girl who goes to a crumbling school in Dillon are
the same as the dreams of the boy who learns on the streets of LA; we
will remember that there is something happening in America; that we
are not as divided as our politics suggests; that we are one people;
we are one nation; and together, we will begin the next great chapter
in America's story with three words that will ring from coast to
coast; from sea to shining sea - Yes. We. Can.








"Come on, people We've got to come TOGETHER
Its you and me HOPE will make us stronger
FREEDOM IT RINGS, DO YOU HEAR IT CALLING?
Reach out and touch And love will take us higher"
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:11 PM   #509
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrsSpringsteen
There is still racism too- which I am more than willing to admit I don't see nearly as much regarding Senator Obama, mostly because of where I live.
This could be why you and I are actually disagreeing (for once! lol).
Around here I'm much more concerned about the issue of race than gender, it is after all the capital of the Confederacy.

But let's put this entire thing in context:
For the course of an entire year Hillary had about a double digit lead over Obama in NH, it wasn't until Iowa that that lead seemed to dissolve.

A week ago, the story would have been "Obama comes in close second!" As opposed to "Hillary is the comeback kid!"

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Old 01-09-2008, 01:15 PM   #510
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This may have been posted already, but it's very interesting.

The woman who asked Clinton the question that made her cry voted Obama! She attended an Obama rally and she herself was moved to tears by what he said - twice.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/pol...k.obama.am.cnn

For some reason this link may not work, but you'll see the video there.
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:16 PM   #511
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2democrat

But let's put this entire thing in context:
For the course of an entire year Hillary had about a double digit lead over Obama in NH, it wasn't until Iowa that that lead seemed to dissolve.

A week ago, the story would have been "Obama comes in close second!" As opposed to "Hillary is the comeback kid!"

This is exactly the point the short-haired woman on MSNBC(don't remember her name, she was on at the same time as Pat Buchanan) made last night after it was called, about it's silly to say Hillary is the comeback kid when she was the frontrunner for months and months, and that the reality is that Obama simply almost pulled up the upset over Hillary.

I was applauding her for saying it while the rest of the media was gushing over Hillary's HISTORIC AMAZING INCREDIBLE COMEBACK, and I applaud you now.

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Old 01-09-2008, 01:18 PM   #512
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Quote:
Originally posted by namkcuR


This is exactly the point the short-haired woman on MSNBC(don't remember her name, she was on at the same time as Pat Buchanan) made last night after it was called, about it's silly to say Hillary is the comeback kid when she was the frontrunner for months and months, and that the reality is that Obama simply almost pulled up the upset over Hillary.

I was applauding her for saying it while the rest of the media was gushing over Hillary's HISTORIC AMAZING INCREDIBLE COMEBACK, and I applaud you now.

Yeah that was Rachel Maddow, she deserves the credit for bringing it up but I'll take your applause anyway
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:39 PM   #513
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2democrat
But let's put this entire thing in context:
For the course of an entire year Hillary had about a double digit lead over Obama in NH, it wasn't until Iowa that that lead seemed to dissolve.

A week ago, the story would have been "Obama comes in close second!" As opposed to "Hillary is the comeback kid!"

This is true, and I'm not disputing it.

At the same time, the media really rolled along this past week with Obama's emergence in Iowa, and then really relied heavily on the polls coming out of NH that showed him with a double digit lead over Clinton. For her to then win there makes it quite surprising.

Which leads to the moral of all of this - the media really, really sucks.
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:42 PM   #514
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So what is the general feeling here? What are Obama's chances at getting this nomination? How difficult will it be to defeat Hillary?
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:45 PM   #515
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Quote:
Originally posted by phanan


This is true, and I'm not disputing it.

At the same time, the media really rolled along this past week with Obama's emergence in Iowa, and then really relied heavily on the polls coming out of NH that showed him with a double digit lead over Clinton. For her to then win there makes it quite surprising.

Which leads to the moral of all of this - the media really, really sucks.
Let's hope that this is a major wake up call for them. As Tom Brokaw said back in 2000, they've got egg on their face.

As for the rest of the democratic race, I'm betting it'll stay neck and neck through Feb 5, assuming neither Obama nor Hillary make some huge mistake.
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:46 PM   #516
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I agree. Super Tuesday will probably be the deciding factor this year, for both parties.
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Old 01-09-2008, 02:03 PM   #517
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Quote:
Originally posted by phanan
I agree. Super Tuesday will probably be the deciding factor this year, for both parties.
I agree. I need to register to vote in New Jersey. Any idea how I can do that? I never thought that me voting would be significant.
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Old 01-09-2008, 02:09 PM   #518
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Originally posted by Infinitum98


I agree. I need to register to vote in New Jersey. Any idea how I can do that? I never thought that me voting would be significant.
Google it. You can probably register online if you haven't missed the deadline.
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Old 01-09-2008, 02:12 PM   #519
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[Q]
There was no shortage of polls going into the New Hampshire primary in 2008 and it looks like we all missed the mark on the Democratic side. This will require a lot of scrutiny in the coming days and weeks, but here are some initial thoughts on what has been happening:

According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters said that they made up their minds on primary day. That is just an unprecedented number. I have polled many races, especially close ones, where 4% to 8% have said they finally decided on their vote the day of the election and that can wreak havoc on those of us who are in the business of capturing pre-election movements and trends. But nearly one in five this time?
It looks like the always feisty voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire have rejected pre-election coronations. In the case of Iowa, Democratic voters said that Mrs. Clinton is not inevitable, while in New Hampshire they were not ready to endorse the Obama train without checking the engine.
The compressed schedule of the two events may have had an impact. Normally the winning candidate gets an initial big bounce out of Iowa, and then plateaus. Then the next primary race begins. With less than five full days, Obama got his bounce in New Hampshire, then the settling down period began on the last day – under the radar screen.
My polling showed Clinton doing well on the late Sunday night and all day Monday – she was in a 2-point race in that portion of the polling. But since our methods call for a three-day rolling average, we had to legitimately factor the huge Obama numbers on Friday and Saturday – thus his 12 point average lead. Unfortunately, one day or a day–and–a–half does not make a trend and we ran out of time.
Going into the New Hampshire primary, we certainly did see Clinton holding on to a significant lead among women and older voters. But we were focusing on Obama’s massive lead among younger and independent voters. We seem to have missed the huge turnout of older women that apparently put Clinton over the top.
We expected that Obama would receive the lion’s share of independents and drain the Republican primary of these voters. It now appears that, perhaps with a sense that Obama had a lock on the Democratic side, independents felt free to vote on the Republican side and reward their hero, John McCain.
We will pour through the data and try to come up with something more definitive, but those are my early observations. There is much speculation that Senator Clinton’s crying incident may have offered voters – especially women – a peek at the human side of someone who is often seen as scripted. I think she also scored points during the ABC debate Saturday night when she declared, amid a discussion about the country’s desire for a change in direction, that electing a woman would represent a big change in itself. Her numbers did go up in that last 24–hour period.

On the other side, most of us did a whole lot better coming close to the numbers on the Republican side of the aisle. But this is one of those cases that remind us that pre-election polls are guides to voter attitudes and shifts. All things considered in this and other cases, we pollsters still do a creditable job.[/Q]

A pollster's initial take on yesterday.
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Old 01-09-2008, 02:16 PM   #520
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Quote:
Originally posted by namkcuR
So what is the general feeling here? What are Obama's chances at getting this nomination? How difficult will it be to defeat Hillary?
I think Obama can do it!! I am confident!
I think we will see a change in strategy also. It cracks me up that people say they don't know what he stands for when it's all outlined on his website! He has some awesome ideas for all of us waiting to jump off the table! Green Job Corps, College Credit,
ect ect... I think he will start speaking exactly about those ideas during the rallys. Also, he needs to slap down all the religious slurs out there before people form definite opinions. I was just listening to Air America ( Tom Hartman) and he said yesterday in Iowa he was sitting in a bar with these working class guys and they said they wouldn't vote for him because he was Muslim and there implying that he had ties to terrorists which is ofcourse RIDICULOUS! Thankfully Tom set them straight and said that he convinced them that what they were reading was a big FAT LIE! So if some people in NH think this what does middle America think? Barack needs to dispell those rumors swiftly so they don't grow in to a monster they can't stop.

The good news is this loss does prevent him from getting too hot too fast. Also, nobody likes anyone that is too over-confident and winning in New Hampshire may have created a deity and everyone would be gunning for him. Another thought....this will remind people not to believe the polls and that the only sure way to win is to show up and vote because anything can happen!GO OBAMA GO!!!
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