MERGED--> NH predictions + Hillary's win + NH recount?

[namkcuR]

It's sort of hitting me like a brick in the face how much John Edwards could actually hurt Obama's chances. He got 17% of the vote tonight. That's almost 1/5 of the vote. I think it's fairly safe to say Obama would get at least 2/3 of that support.

Edwards can't win and he knows it. If he's really as anti-Hillary as he appears to be, it would be serve him well to drop out ASAP.

 

[ntalwar]

But one colossal mistake (Iraq) should not automatically lead to the other extreme of isolationism.

I fear we're already isolated and moving towards extreme isolation in the world. New, non-military approaches are needed as the US slowly loses its economic and military superpower status.

 

[Dalton]

I'd like to note that it took a Canadian to give you an answer.

I blame my stupidity on video games and porn. Wait until porn gets to canada, you guys will go right down the shit hole. This stuff blows the Red Green show right out of the water.

 

[Infinity]

Well, dating back to 1979, we've stuck our foot too far in Iran and then later obviously in Iraq. My point is, it's easy to say "we shouldn't keep sticking our hand in the fire, it burns!!" When you already have to deal with a lot of burns.

On Iraq, if we pull out 100% of military forces tomorrow, the problem doesn't go away anytime soon, like years and years and years.

On Iran, the only reason people don't see the gravity of the Iran threat is because of the debacle of Iraq. We can't let them have nuclear weapons, period. What do you suppose we do? I don't accept that we should do nothing, even if I am a bit of an isolationist to an extent. I totally loathe the neo-con ideal of spreading Democracy with force but you can't ignore actual threats. On September 10th, 2001 our biggest threats in the region were still obviously Al Qaeda and Iran. Iraq didn't change this. That's just my view.

Okay, I'm helping get off subject, so I said my piece.

As I said in my earlier post:

"So yea we will be damned for now even if we stop all the policing, because people are still going to remember how we've been for all these decades. But I think over years and years of non-interventionalism the hatred for America will fade away."


And yea, on 9/10/01 al-Qaeda was our biggest threat, because for the past few decades we have been interfering a lot. But think about it this way, we interfered even more in the last 6 years by going into Iraq and do you think that more people have joined the "death to America" movement? I think so, and that is because of Iraq. So the more we interfere, the more they will hate us and want to kill us. If we attack Iran tomorrow, imagine all the hatred for us, we really are doomed then.

 

[DaveC]

This stuff blows the Red Green show right out of the water.

Once they manage to put possums, hockey, and duct tape in porno, it'll catch on up here.

There's already plenty of beavers, so obviously they're trying.

 

[U2democrat]

It's sort of hitting me like a brick in the face how much John Edwards could actually hurt Obama's chances. He got 17% of the vote tonight. That's almost 1/5 of the vote. I think it's fairly safe to say Obama would get at least 2/3 of that support.

Edwards can't win and he knows it. If he's really as anti-Hillary as he appears to be, it would be serve him well to drop out ASAP.

That's what I've been saying. He needs to put his ego aside and realize he has no chance to win, and throw his support behind Obama.

 

[namkcuR]

Oooh, subtle yet slick choice of words there, Hillary.

She just congratulated Obama, Edwards, Richardson, etc as a group, rather than singling Obama out for congratulations. As if to say, 'you're all in the group below me'.

 

[melon]

Osama bin Laden himself has said that he has waged a holy war on the U.S. because of our bases in Saudi Arabia, do a little research.

Let's add some more research. Bin Laden, in 1989, ordered the assassinations of politicians in Yemen (neighbor to Saudi Arabia), which made the Saudi government irate. He has also threatened them too. While I am not going to sugar coat the fact that the Saudi government is repressive, their stability ensures a stable oil supply to the West. A destabilized Saudi Arabia in a state like Somalia would not be in the world's best interest, which is why the Saudi government invited the U.S. military into the country during the first Gulf War, as they feared Saddam's invasion of Kuwait could lead to a larger regional destabilization.

Again, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

 

[Infinity]

And one more point in general. Our continued interference in the Middle East have ironicaly isolated us from the rest of the world. We are probably the most hated country in the world. So it is pretty ironic how we have become isolated in that respect.

 

[anitram]

Edwards can't win and he knows it. If he's really as anti-Hillary as he appears to be, it would be serve him well to drop out ASAP.

He could be trying to rack up delegates who later become more valuable.

 

[VintagePunk]

I blame my stupidity on video games and porn. Wait until porn gets to canada, you guys will go right down the shit hole. This stuff blows the Red Green show right out of the water.

Duct tape


I'd just like to say two words to those of you who are getting all worked up about specific candidates and their chances this early on: Howard Dean.


It's way too early to be making dire predictions. Really. The political winds can change so rapidly. If Hillary got the nomination, in the ensuing months before the actual election, so much can happen. It could work out for her.

 

[melon]

Oooh, subtle yet slick choice of words there, Hillary.

She just congratulated Obama, Edwards, Richardson, etc as a group, rather than singling Obama out for congratulations. As if to say, 'you're all in the group below me'.

Why would she give Obama "special" legitimization in a campaign? I don't think that Clinton wants it to turn into a two-way race, at this point, even at an implicit level.

 

[namkcuR]

Why would she give Obama "special" legitimization in a campaign? I don't think that Clinton wants it to turn into a two-way race, at this point, even at an implicit level.

Obama congratulated her and no one else.

 

[melon]

Obama congratulated her and no one else.

That's because Obama does want it to turn into a two-way race. Clinton was the "front-runner" from the beginning, whereas Obama's stature was not assured--and still isn't.

There is a reasonable sense of strategy here on both of their parts.

 

[Infinity]

Let's add some more research. Bin Laden, in 1989, ordered the assassinations of politicians in Yemen (neighbor to Saudi Arabia), which made the Saudi government irate. He has also threatened them too. While I am not going to sugar coat the fact that the Saudi government is repressive, their stability ensures a stable oil supply to the West. A destabilized Saudi Arabia in a state like Somalia would not be in the world's best interest, which is why the Saudi government invited the U.S. military into the country during the first Gulf War, as they feared Saddam's invasion of Kuwait could lead to a larger regional destabilization.

Again, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Yea I know. If it wasn't for oil we wouldn't be there. But I see something wrong in going to war to protect oil interests. And if anything, we could have gone, fought Iraq in Kuwait, and then came back. We didn't need the base. We really didn't.

 

[Dalton]

Man, I really don't want another 4-8 years of a Clinton or a Bush.

 

[namkcuR]

Man, I really don't want another 4-8 years of a Clinton or a Bush.

I want Obama over Clinton as much as the next guy/girl, but can we not lump Clinton and Bush together as though they're the same thing?

 

[U2DMfan]

It's sort of hitting me like a brick in the face how much John Edwards could actually hurt Obama's chances. He got 17% of the vote tonight. That's almost 1/5 of the vote. I think it's fairly safe to say Obama would get at least 2/3 of that support.

Edwards can't win and he knows it. If he's really as anti-Hillary as he appears to be, it would be serve him well to drop out ASAP.

John Edwards is an arrogant prick.

If he truly wanted to help his party, he'd bail.

He wants to help himself only.

He's not anti-Hillary because he hates Hillary, he ran in 04 on 'returning' to the Clinton years prosperity etc. He's anti-Hillary now because he can't beat either of them in a three way race and certainly cant beat Obama head to head. He saw what Obama was doing and tried to piggy back him.

Really, he's on an ego trip.
Doing much worse than 2004, he's been more or less running for President for 4 years. While Clinton and Obama have been legislating, he's been building up his public stock.

Snake oil salesman deluxe. I hope he costs Obama just so you all will hate him as much as I hate him.

Sadly, I agree with his politics, for the most part.
I just can't stand a fake bastard. Now, rich, aloof, arrogant and snooty (Gore/Kerry/Clintons) I can deal with.
Fake is another thing. Populist my ass.

Why does he have to remind people incessantly what his FATHER did for a living? Because that's his only real selling point for credibility.

I can understand why people like him.
Because they believe him. I don't.
So don't be offended because I hate him. That's JMO.
Politically, I'm pretty much right there with ya.

 

[Anu]

I can't see myself voting for Hillary in the general election.

I hope that Edwards, Kucinich, and Richardson drop out and their people pick their first choice from the top two.

 

[Dalton]

I want Obama over Clinton as much as the next guy/girl, but can we not lump Clinton and Bush together as though they're the same thing?

Here's what they have in common - a divided America. Now, I'm not naive enough to believe that Obama (or anyone else for that matter) won't struggle with the same thing, but Clinton in the White House ENSURES another term of back biting.

Half of the country HATE her. I doubt most of them know why, but there it is. I like her. I think she would make a strong president, but in my mind she can never sit in that office because of how divisive she has become.

 

[phanan]

I can't see myself voting for Hillary in the general election.

You would go from Obama to a Republican candidate?

Why?

 

[melon]

Yea I know. If it wasn't for oil we wouldn't be there. But I see something wrong in going to war to protect oil interests. And if anything, we could have gone, fought Iraq in Kuwait, and then came back. We didn't need the base. We really didn't.

Except Gulf War I never really ended. It then became a base for operations to enforce U.N. sanctions against Iraq.

 

[VintagePunk]

but can we not lump Clinton and Bush together as though they're the same thing?

Exactly. I don't get why Hillary is being vilified just because this wunderkind has burst upon the scene. She's not satan. I think she'd be a capable leader, and, like Anitram mentioned earlier, she has a toughness that I admire. Plus, she's well aware of how the game is played, how politics can get dirty, and I think she's up for it, she won't fold.

 

[Infinity]

You would go from Obama to a Republican candidate?

Why?

If the Republican is Ron Paul, then that is understandable.

 

[phanan]

Exactly. I don't get why Hillary is being vilified just because this wunderkind has burst upon the scene. She's not satan. I think she'd be a capable leader, and, like Anitram mentioned earlier, she has a toughness that I admire. Plus, she's well aware of how the game is played, how politics can get dirty, and I think she's up for it, she won't fold.

I agree. While I think Obama is an excellent speaker and a great motivator, I think Clinton would do a good job also.

 

[U2democrat]

While none of us may understand why she is vilified, the point is she has very high negatives.. That's what scares me going into the general. A lot of people simply don't like her, even if we dont' understand why.

 

[ntalwar]

but can we not lump Clinton and Bush together as though they're the same thing?

I think the perception is there partially because she accepted money from the same big business interests that helped Bush - drug, oil, and health care companies, etc.

 

[VintagePunk]

I agree. While I think Obama is an excellent speaker and a great motivator, I think Clinton would do a good job also.

Exactly. Hypothetically, if she were to win the nom, and as such, became the only Dem option, Dem voters would rally around her, and her spin machine would check polls and public sentiment and mold her into a candidate who would be appealing to independents. It's not certain loss if she gets the nomination. Far from it.

 

[indra]

Exactly. I don't get why Hillary is being vilified just because this wunderkind has burst upon the scene. She's not satan. I think she'd be a capable leader, and, like Anitram mentioned earlier, she has a toughness that I admire. Plus, she's well aware of how the game is played, how politics can get dirty, and I think she's up for it, she won't fold.

I have to admit I would LOVE to see all the people who hate her absolutely shitting bricks if she became president.

To me Obama and Clinton are pretty much interchangeable in terms of policy -- their differences are mainly stylistic. Both are too far on the right for me to really like and since I dislike and distrust all politicians on principle, I'm finding it mighty hard to get very excited.

Watching the brickshitting would be fun though....

 

[melon]

No matter who wins, I'm glad that this is turning out to be a real primary, not that farce of one in 2004.