verte76 said:
I don't blame you for being exasperated with the whole situation. The German elections are not a good sign for Turkey's EU bid as the leading conservative opposes EU membership for Turkey. What other affiliations are an option for Turkey?
Well, there are several options, although so far none have been considered the way EU has been considered. Russia, which Turkish private sector has sizeable investment in, is always a possible partner, along with the middle asian countries which are rich in terms of energy resources.
US is obviously a very important partner, and frankly at this point I'd rather see Turkey in NAFTA than in the EU! (Although that is not really geographically viable, you know what i mean
)
One option for Turkey has always been to lead the middle east and the islamic world, and we'd be far better suited for that than Egypt, but I dont think that is a role we are keen on playing.
A very good point in Huntington's clash of civilizations, although there are others i dont agree with, was that turkey is neither totally western nor really eastern. we are too western, too secular, too 'heretic' and too wayward for the middle east. we are too eastern, too large, too muslim and too much of an 'ex-enemy' for europe. Other countries that were mentioned in a similar situation were russia, japan and australia. I think the viability of a strong asian block, including china, india, japan, russia and turkey should be explored.
for the time being, however, i think turkey should make moves towards the middle asia, russia, middle east and surprise, surprise, india. now turkey is becoming an important energy corridor between the east and west, and we should build on this advantage.
id like to talk a bit on vincent's comments, because turkey's situation is rather different than the other countries that were included in the enlargement process.
while talking about the economic state of the entrants, do you have any idea about the situation romanian economy's in? or bulgarian? turkey has a far better economy than both of these countries, and EU is letting both of these countries in. and in 15 years time, i think our economy will probably be more than adequate to enter the EU, if those countries' was.
the entrance of southern cyprus in the union was simply wrong, and if i may say so, foolish on the part of EU. it is obvious that there is a conflict between s. cyprus and turkey, and they waved them in before any solution could be found. now we have to deal with a country we dont even recognize, although we were not the ones who voted down a UN peace plan!
i also see that the general argument (turkey's too poor, too large, too muslim, too everything) is also taking hold in europe. we've done pretty well on the terms and conditions, as well as the european criteria, so far, but there is one mindset that we simply can not overcome. one EU commisioner said something like 'allowing turkey in would be the total reversal of the battle in vienna (which stopped the ottomans from moving further into europe, in 17th century)' there is an irony in this. if EU supported turkey and we had an increased standard of living, most turks who are living abroad would prefer coming back. i mean, have you ever been to turkey? why the hell would anyone go and live under the gloomy german weather if they could have a better life at home? why would someone want to leave their hometown if they had a sustainable living standard there? i just think the fear of a 'turkish invasion' is unfounded and exaggerated.
saying that people like merkel and sarkozy coming to power would have no effects on the negotiations is a bit naive, in my opinion. the tide is now against turkey, because those governments may ask for certain compromises which we simply can not make. and eventually we would break down the process because the public would start thinking that maybe EU is not worth making all these compromises.
