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Old 07-17-2002, 10:54 AM   #161
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Originally posted by Like someone to blame
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I didn't want you filling Rono's head with grand illusions!

Rob
Well, i have no illusions about American politics, its all about being popular and selfprotection.....

BTW,.... Bush had it very easy without real opposition from the Democrats. The Democrats are to scared to go down in the polls. Everyone who is not for Bush is against the war against terror.

I hope the Democrats will get there act together and go into serious opposition. Than we will see who will be president,...
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Old 07-17-2002, 10:55 AM   #162
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Now lemonite, I know what you are trying to do...trying to suck me in to attacking your (clears throat) flattering remarks about my intellect...

Let's see...since when did one company (J & J) who reported better than average earnings make for a strong economy? Let's consider the following business news today:

New housing construction down 3.6% in June.
Boeing earnings slip 7% last quarter.
Intel misses earnings forecast...4000 jobs to be cut.

Yes, companies like Coca-Cola and Ford Motor posted some nice earnings today...but do you consider 2.3% economic growth strong or anemic (as I do)? And can these earnings estimates really be trusted...in light of the accounting scandals popping up all over the place? I have some knowledge in this area...I'm a public accountant and financial planner with a mid-size private firm. We're asked by our clients to push the envelope as much as possible...and many times asked to go beyond that...I mean, the business owner really needs that loan so they have to look good to the banker's and all...happens routinely in my profession...and I'm seeing it at the local level...so don't tell me it isn't magnified 20 fold with the big boys. So I wouldn't get to giddy about a few companies beating earnings expectations yet...especially when these companies are not in the technology or the financial services sector...2 of the 3 sectors over the past 12 years that have emerged as the growth engines of our economy. When we see continued strong earnings estimates from companies in these sectors and accounting standards that work than I'll be ready to give credit where credit is due.

For every piece of good news...there are twice as many reports of bad news. Don't get me wrong...I want a strong economy as much as the next guy...but trickle-down, supply-side economics isn't the answer.

I would agree that if only a handful of companies were involved in accounting irregularities and scandal that it would be the exception, not the norm. However, we are now talking about over 35 Fortune 500 companies currently under investigation or suspicion. In addition to Enron and Arthur Andersen they include: Adelphia Communications, Bristol-Myers, Computer Associates, Dynegy, Global Crossing, Haliburton (Dick Cheney wouldn't have anything to do with them, would he?), Imclone Systems, Merrill Lynch, Quest Communications, Tyco Ltd, Martha Stewart Living, Worldcom, Xerox, etc etc. You contend corporate scandal is the exception???? I think not.

Rob
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Old 07-17-2002, 11:03 AM   #163
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Originally posted by Rono


BTW,.... Bush had it very easy without real opposition from the Democrats. The Democrats are to scared to go down in the polls.

I hope the Democrats will get there act together and go into serious opposition. Than we will see who will be president
I agree. The only Democrat's so far to begin challenging this "war" and Bush in general is Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. I really like Kerry...intelligent, well-spoken, Vietnam War hero...probably to liberal to get elected in a run-off against Bush, though. As for Gore...part of me would like to see him get a chance against W again...part of me wishes he stay out of the fray.

Rob
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Old 07-17-2002, 11:36 AM   #164
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Quote:
Originally posted by Like someone to blame
Now lemonite, I know what you are trying to do...trying to suck me in to attacking your (clears throat) flattering remarks about my intellect...

I would agree that if only a handful of companies were involved in accounting irregularities and scandal that it would be the exception, not the norm. However, we are now talking about over 35 Fortune 500 companies currently under investigation or suspicion. In addition to Enron and Arthur Andersen they include: Adelphia Communications, Bristol-Myers, Computer Associates, Dynegy, Global Crossing, Haliburton (Dick Cheney wouldn't have anything to do with them, would he?), Imclone Systems, Merrill Lynch, Quest Communications, Tyco Ltd, Martha Stewart Living, Worldcom, Xerox, etc etc. You contend corporate scandal is the exception???? I think not.

Rob
I did not attack you. Enough of that..

To say it is the norm?.. It's normal for people to brush their teeth at night.. It's normal for people to eat food. To say corporate scandal is the norm?.. It is a problem, but not the 'norm'.

I'm looking for the exact numbers, however, the numbers reported by the government are going to be an increase over the last report... Hence, the economy is fine.

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Old 07-17-2002, 12:09 PM   #165
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Lemonite:

I appreciate your passion for contending the economy is alright...but it isn't. Economic numbers and cycles are cyclical. One good report doesn't make for a strong or even an improving economy. There needs to be a succession of good economic news on a steady basis for most experts to agree that the economy is strong.

Greenspan will only admit that he see's signs of a recovery...but even he said we are a long way from being out of the woods. I personally prepare over 1000 tax returns a year (800 individual returns and 200 or so corporate returns) for clients from all walks of economic life. In my professional position I can confidently state that I have a pretty darn good sense about the current state of our economy. I can tell you that my clients are (with a very few exceptions) feeling much trepidation about the current state of affairs...and this comes from clients of mine who lean both to the left AND right. They are not committing new dollars to capital investments or improvements...they are more in a "defensive" mode...trying to keep their respective heads above water...and not in an "offensive" mode, i.e. looking to committ new dollars towards expansion or inventories. I am spending more and more of my time each day counseling my business clients on how best to cut costs etc. With few exceptions, my clients have put a freeze on hiring new employees and choosing to forgo technology improvements. The Bush tax cut (which went disproportianately to the upper 2% of wage earners) has done NOTHING to help the majority of my clients (or Americans) in their daily lives...what it HAS done is lead us back into budgit deficits for the first time in 2 years!

This is a first hand account from small-mid size town Americana of what is REALLY happening out there. Don't be fooled by a few "encouraging" reports from biased administration officials. One quarter of good news doesn't make for a strong economy...especially when most of the "experts" are still concerned.

Rob
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Old 07-17-2002, 01:52 PM   #166
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The economy is recovering mos defly, What it also does not need is the constant talking down.. at least until election day.. by the liberals who are trying to tank this rising economy along with the Market.. but when these two meet.. The economy's rise versus the Market's Drop.. I think that the economy will be the stronger force and bring the Market up with it.. Yes.. You heard Greenspan yesterday apparently as well...

You quote your background.. I know of many people involved in the economy.. Cardboard Box producers who report that their production is up et al.. It's a Back and forth game we can play.. But i guess we can take that to PM if ya want..

Here's a few quotes from greenspan....

"While the economy has held up remarkably well, not surprisingly the depressing effects of recent events linger," the Fed chief told the Senate panel.

"All the evidence that we have been able to accumulate in recent weeks suggests that the economy is improving," he said later during questioning by lawmakers. "It's pretty much in line with our expectations."

Concerns are one thing, it's the constant excessive pessimism that is going on at the moment which is furthering problems.. Which again.. is correcting the 'excessive optimism' of the 90's.

Anyways, On to another thing you brought up.. This Bush Tax Cut leading to Deficits?.. This thing hasn't even been implemented yet. The Tax Cut has nothing to do with deficits.. Anyways they're proven to increase Government Intake. But... If you want to know where all these deficits are coming from.. It's that huge Education bill he signed.. The largest Farm Subsidy Ever.. The Federalization of Airline Security.. And The Terrorist Attacks.

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Old 07-17-2002, 03:11 PM   #167
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Washington, July 17 (AP)- Housing construction, which has helped fuel the sputtering economy, declined in June after a bumpy ride earlier this year, signaling the sector may be losing steam.

The article continues, "The Federal Reserve, citing WORRIES about the STRENGTH of the economic rebound, has opted at each of its four meetings this year to leave short-term interest rates at 40 year lows."

It continues, "But consumers, whose spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity, have continued to open their wallets despite the SPOTTY recovery and the SOUR stock market, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress Wednesday."

It continues, "Business spending, however, has remained WEAK, Greenspan said. It was deep cuts in capital spending that helped push the economy into recession last year."

This doesn't sound like a strong economy to me.

As for "talking down the economy", c'mon, let's be real here. It was Bush HIMSELF who talked down the economy during the election-this is irrefutable. He had to run against SOMETHING-sense he couldn't run against the economic boom times of Clinton/Gore-so he chose a campaign of economic fear by talking down the very economy you allege is so strong. Current economic data is mixed at best-their are some signs of strength but many signs of weakness too. I'm pleased to hear about your Cardboard box producers seeing increased business-but it is no indication that this is in any way a national trend.

Regarding the tax cuts....I would politely suggest you refrain from challenging me on "taxing" issues...this is my area of expertise...in the real world. I know more about tax law and policy than most. You are resorting to saying things about this tax cut that you are not informed about. I have no problem with you disagreeing as to tax theory as it affects the economy...but don't say things that aren't factually correct. For instance...contrary to your statement...the Bush tax cuts have indeed been enacted...signed last fall and another bill signed this past March. If you still doubt me than maybe you should tune in to Fox News or C-Span any weekday morning and hear those Bush admin officials credit their tax cuts for the (clears throat) "improving" economy. This now occurs daily. You can't miss it. Do you still want to assert that the Bush tax cuts haven't been enacted? Maybe you don't remember (or didn't qualify) receiving your $300 "rebate" check last fall ($500 if Head of Household-$600 if Married filing joint)---which was part of the first Bush tax cuts signed into law...surely you remember how that was supposed to "save" our economy? Trust me...the Bush tax cuts have been enacted...with more to come.

As for tax cuts having nothing to do with deficits...not the case at all. Tax cuts generally result in LESS revenue to federal and state governments...not more as some supply siders may argue. I agree that in the short term tax cuts can provide the gov't with more revenue due to high net worth individuals selling appreciated assets at more favorable rates...but this occurence is historically short term in nature...and less revenue becomes the norm. So if my math is correct here...2+2=4 and less revenue= deficits. Shall I entertain you with the huge DISPARITY in who received these tax cuts...don't be misled with the GOP rhetoric that more of the tax cut went to lower income individuals...because I can testify that in the "real" world that I operate in...my middle to lower income clients didn't get squat. Oh, my high net worth clients made out real well...big cuts in their marginal rates...no estate tax to worry about...reduction in the capital gains rate (which benefits them tremendously)...huge business tax credits to the wealthiest corporations...I could go on and on (but I know you don't want me to) because it gets much uglier. Hey, if this trickle-down thing is all it's cracked up to be maybe W and Dick will send us all a little money out of their tax savings to us common folk! That would certainly be compassionate of them, don't you think?
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Old 07-17-2002, 04:53 PM   #168
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Bush Talked down the economy because it was going down.. and he didn't want to be blamed for somethign that occurred before he took office.. The liberals are talking down a recovering and rising economy just so they have an issue in the upcoming election.

The Cardboard Box Company is just one of many examples.. but Yes it is good to hear this news...

About the deficits I'm making an issue of comparison.. This Tax Cut doesn't take full effect for a few years, and that is when it comes full circle.. That is my point.. And I see the issue of the Major Spending Bills our President has signed has no appearance into the post..

To say that a Terrorist Attack which rocked our market and economy.. The Largest Farm Subsidy in History, The Federalization of the Airline Security, The Airline Bailout, and This Huge Education Bill has no effect on the Deficit does not make any logical sense? Many liberal pundits are using the logic that to cut taxes while increasing spending is not smart and increases teh deficits.. not the tax cut alone.. I would be in favor of reduced spending while cutting taxes, but I'm also not president.

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Old 07-17-2002, 06:18 PM   #169
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Bush talked the economy right into the gutter-where it remains today. The Dems don't need to talk down a recovering economy to grab a campaign issue...they have enough issues to run and win on...corporate responsibility, affordable/accesible health care/insurance, the protection of civil liberties, a cleaner environment, protecting Social Security/Medicare, worker rights, etc etc.

You're right...the tax cuts are 100% implemented by 2011...long after Bush has left office we'll be cleaning up his mess. Clinton/Gore showed that it is possible to implement targeted, meaniful tax cuts AND increase spending while keeping the budget balanced and paying down debt. How? With sustained economic growth and proper financial management. This country misses former Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin. This guy was great. The problem with Bush's tax cut is that it is the LARGEST in history and the benefits overwhelmingly go to the upper 2% of American households, i.e. the richest of the rich. Do they really need a tax cut? Of course not. Because of this lop-sided tax cut and it's massive dollar amount you cannot help but run deficits...especially with a weak economy. Then, as you point out, throw in the education bill and a disastrous pork-laden farm bill (no pun intended) and it is a recipe for disaster. Bush is rolling out Reagan-era economic policies that ultimately led us into the recession of the late 80's-early 90's. It's deja vu all over again. So, yes, the tax cut is still going to be the largest reason for our increasing deficit due to it's huge cost over the next 10 years...what remains to be seen is just how much of a financial disaster Bush's economic policies leave us in.
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Old 07-17-2002, 06:42 PM   #170
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I see we disagree, ah well.. I do have a question but I'll take it to PM..

The Republicans did control the spending in what you are referencing during the Clinton Admin.

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Old 07-17-2002, 06:53 PM   #171
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An amusing rehash of the same old fabrications - particularly the "tax cuts for the rich" mantra - but I found one thing REALLY amusing:

Clinton/Gore showed that it is possible to implement targeted, meaniful tax cuts AND increase spending while keeping the budget balanced and paying down debt.

You know when all that happened? After the Republicans won both houses of Congress in 1994. They sure as HELL didn't try tax cuts and controlled spending before: there was tax INCREASES, the stimulus package, and Hilary's health care plan.

Not only THAT, but the GOP shoved those tax cuts and controlled spending measures down the White House's throat, after several vetoes.

And above all that, these measures that brought about budget surpluses were the SAME MEASURES that lead the Democrats to accuse the GOP of trying to murder senior citizens seven years ago...

...the SAME MEASURES that lead you to accuse the GOP of the same thing a few hours ago.

Ah. Sweet, sweet irony.
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