Iowa Caucuses Results

[Dreadsox]

Well, today we shall know a little more about the coming weeks.

Any predictions before tonight? Will we know the results before we go to bed? Hehe? Will Dr. Dean hold on? Can Mr. Edwards pull of one of the major come from behind upsets to put his name on the political map?

 

[Dreadsox]

One more reason Mr. Dean should be keeping his mouth closed....He definitely reminds me more and more of the picture someof you paint of GW lying all of the time, except he gets caught

[Q]Pressed in recent interviews about why he would leave Iowa at crunch time, Dean said he could not turn down an invitation to appear with a former president he admires. But when a visitor to the Maranatha church -- thousands come from out of town annually to hear Carter's Sunday-morning homilies -- thanked Carter for inviting Dean, Carter quickly interjected "I did not invite him," before adding "I'm glad he came."

"He called me on the phone and said he'd like to worship with me," Carter explained to reporters before the church service began. [/Q]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27959-2004Jan18.html

Talk about trying to make it look like Carter was giving you some kind of a nod. Man I hope this makes some of the papers in Iowa today!


[Q]Dr. Dean said last week that he was skipping 20 of the last 48 hours in the Iowa campaign because "when the former president of the United States asks you to go to church with him on the Sunday before caucuses, I think you probably take that up." But Mr. Carter said today that the visit had actually been Dr. Dean's idea and that he hoped all the Democratic candidates would make the pilgrimage to Plains "to kind of heal wounds and show that we can all worship together."

"I didn't invite him," the former president, wearing a bolo tie, told reporters and parishioners as he entered the church this morning. "He called me on the phone and said he'd like to come worship with me."[/Q]
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/18/politics/campaigns/19DEAN.html

Go Edwards......I love the underdog!!!!! Shake up the system

 

[Dreadsox]

This mornings Zogby Poll has Kerry at 25%, Dean at 22%, and Edwards at 21%. Edwards is surging in at 21%, Gephardt at 18%

[Q]"Pollster John Zogby: "The story here is that Kerry had a huge day (29%) on Sunday alone. He carries his lead into the caucuses. He will probably be on top in Monday's entrance poll. Edwards finished strong and Dean bounced back. Only Gephardt seems to have faded on this last day.

"Kerry dominates in the western part of the state, among Independents, and among voters with at least a college degree. Dean holds a strong lead with younger voters. Edwards is well ahead in the central part of the state, but trails a bit in the west and east. Gephardt has slipped to a tie with older voters and high school educated. The lowest income voters are still with him.

"The race is very close among union voters and liberals. All four candidates have the same amount of very strong supporters.

"A reminder to all Iowa observers: this is a caucus not a primary. The rules of engagement and the commitment of time are far different. Iowans who show up take this responsibility very seriously and they understand that this is a dynamic process that occurs after discussion, debating, a little horse-trading, and some consensus- building. After all, they are neighbors. Thus, anything can happen. There are no predictions here.

"There are limits to pre-caucus polls. But can anyone doubt that this race has tightened among four serious challengers? The tracking poll has captured statistically what conventional wisdom has observed. If Dean's minions of young volunteers do their job, he can indeed win this process. If Gephardt's legendary and tested labor machine can bring out its supporters, then he will have done it again in Iowa. If voters respond to a 'refreshing' new face or "the experienced Senator' who have surged in later days, then either Edwards or Kerry will rule the evening's events.

"Will Dean's photo op with former President Carter persuade doubters? Will Gephardt's appeal on trade and health care turn the debates? Will Kerry's experience, war heroism, and late surge be enough? Will Edwards' avoidance of negatives be the right formula?

"Or, all four can emerge with bragging rights. The polls can only take us up to the moment the caucuses begin. That even includes the entrance polls. But one thing is certain: the campaign for the Democratic nomination is already exciting and unpredictable."[/Q]

 

[meegannie]

I just hope the Democrats get a better candidate than Al Gore this year.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I hope Edwards wins. The more I see him on CSpan, etc, the more I like him. You can find out more about him on his site

www.johnedwards2004.com

I read that President Carter's son said they offered Dean several dates to attend service w/ them, he picked the one right before the caucus

No one gets anything past President Carter, and imo he won't lie for anyone either.

 

[melon]

I hope that Clark gets the overall nomination.

Melon

 

[Popmartijn]

I hope it's November soon so we can leave behind all this stuff.

Plus, we probably have a new U2 album by then.



Marty

 

[verte76]

Kerry is doing quite well here. Interesting.

 

[Dreadsox]

[Q]01/18/04) U.S. Sen. John Edwards placed second in a new poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers commissioned by The Des Moines Register.

The poll, published in Sunday's editions, showed U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts with the support of 26 percent, followed by Edwards of North Carolina with 23 percent.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean had 20 percent, and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri had 18 percent.

None of the other candidates registered above 3 percent, while 5 percent remain undecided.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
[/Q]

Edwards is the ONE candidate in IOWA who did not go NEGATIVE. he stayed completely on message. His rise has been one of the most incredible things I have witnessed in Politics. He is now on my radar screen and maybe he should be on yours as well. I do not know if this can translate into anything under a Caucus system of voting, but wow, talk about out of nowhere.

 

[verte76]

[Q]01/18/04) U.S. Sen. John Edwards placed second in a new poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers commissioned by The Des Moines Register.

The poll, published in Sunday's editions, showed U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts with the support of 26 percent, followed by Edwards of North Carolina with 23 percent.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean had 20 percent, and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri had 18 percent.

None of the other candidates registered above 3 percent, while 5 percent remain undecided.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
[/Q]

Edwards is the ONE candidate in IOWA who did not go NEGATIVE. he stayed completely on message. His rise has been one of the most incredible things I have witnessed in Politics. He is now on my radar screen and maybe he should be on yours as well. I do not know if this can translate into anything under a Caucus system of voting, but wow, talk about out of nowhere.

In 1976 another obscure Southern politician broke through in the primaries--Jimmy Carter. Some may not like the comparison, but it does show you don't have to be a "big name" to win the whole thing. Sure, things have changed. But geography might repeat itself as well as history. Who'd have thunk it? I am going to turn on the news to check this development. Will it be Upset City??

 

[Dreadsox]

The interesting thing is that under the Caucus system, delegates can be freed up...ie Kuchinick can free his delegates to go with say dean or Gephardt. They are not likely to go with Kerry or Edwards.

The theory is that Dean would be the most likey to benefit because of his anti-war stance and Gephardt because of his anti-Nafta stance.

Thus, the Caucus system really can be one in which a candidate is made KING by one of the lesser candidates.

 

[Dreadsox]

Edwards and Kucinick struck a deal to support each other depending on the situation precinct by precinct.http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/19/elec04.prez.edwards.kucinich/index.html

 

[STING2]

I would say Kerry is going to win it, but if other candidates can give other candidates their votes then I doubt he will be on top.


Popmartijn,

According to Italian and French sections of Universal, the album is coming out in May. May 24/25 most likely.

 

[Diane L]

I am very happy to see that other Interlanders like John Edwards as well. He is my choice. I like his positive message, and the fact that he seems to understand the concerns of working-class America.

 

[verte76]

I am very happy to see that other Interlanders like John Edwards as well. He is my choice. I like his positive message, and the fact that he seems to understand the concerns of working-class America.

He's an appealing candidate and he can run really well in the South. No one can win an election without winning some of the Southern states.

 

[Dreadsox]

It is looking VERY interesting....Early results pouring in indicate Edwards and Kerry are running VERY strong.

 

[sue4u2]

I like Kerry more than Dean but I'm looking strongly at Edwards more so than Kerry. My major lean is still with Clarke however.
I just have a bad feeling about Dean and I can't even identify what it is, it's just a gut feeling. Something isn't right. Nothing aganist Dean supporters, it's just me.

 

[Dreadsox]

I just watched Dean imply that Jimmy Carter endorsed him on MSNBC.

He is officially the third place man in IOWA.

Edwards got a Major bump from brokered deals tonight. Many of the delegates were not his, but were brokered to raise him up by the lesser candidates.

How Kerry pulled this off is beyond me....

Wow.

 

[verte76]

Yeah, apparently Kerry's won. Wow. I don't think anyone was picking him to win this thing. I saw the delegate percentages, I think it is, on CNN, and he had 38% compared to 18% for third place finisher Dean. A strong showing for Edwards also. How's that for "to hell with the pundits"?
I'm not a big fan of political pundits.

 

[U2LipstickBoy]

Gephardt is gone

Gephardt only had a one-state strategy, he was far too much for big labor and the unions, and the people just don't want him. I give Gephardt a lot of credit for knowing right away he had no chance and to drop out tonight took a lot of courage.

Clark is in some trouble, Clark was expecting Dean to win because Clark wants to be seen as the 'alternative' to Dean. But with Kerry pulling out such a big victory, Kerry will now be seen as the alternative to Dean.

Hopefully Lieberman and Kucinich will wake up and also drop out.

We learned in California just a few months back, being negative like Gray Davis did is not the way to go. Dean just kept running his mouth the whole time, from defending Osama in the media, to saying on video a few years back the Iowa Caucus didn't mean much.... his mouth is his own worst enemy.

 

[melon]

Clearly, the overall nomination is still very much up for grabs. Clark made his decision to ignore Iowa, in favor of New Hampshire. He made his bed, and now he has to lie in it. With that said, Clark still polls well in much of the country. Whether this unexpected victory by Kerry changes anything is a good question; time will tell on that one. What this will certainly do, to Kerry's advantage, is to inject some well-needed energy into his otherwise lackluster campaign.

Dean is now clearly in trouble. The persistent negative media attacks hacked away at him, and now it is clear that Democrats have doubts about his electability. One thing is for sure, though. Kerry does somewhat have a presidential demeanor to him, so I do believe he passes the "electable" test.

I will be very curious as to see what happens in New Hampshire, because I think we may be in for more surprises.

Melon

 

[sharky]

OK, if Florida wasn't a good example in 2000, Iowa is a great example now. I don't care what you say -- the polls are messed up and even more so when you throw the candidates into a caucus situation like Iowa. Don't believe the polls until after Election Day in November! Vote the way you want -- you may be surprised at the outcome.

As for the win, I really like Kerry so I'm glad he did so well. Don't know exactly what happened but it worked. I don't know enough about Edwards but I'll go learn some more now. As for Dean, I'm reading a profile about him in the New Yorker and thing he sounds really good too. And I have a cousin who is working for Dean in Iowa - don't know where he's headed to now.

So in the end, I'm happy with the top three and it makes me more confident of my ABB [Anyone But Bush] vote in the fall.

 

[theSoulfulMofo]

We should do a tailgate caucus/primary poll or something... for every caucus and primary, we do one here concurrently, while debating the issues.

 

[U2LipstickBoy]

Dean will sweep New Hampshire

Iowa won't be indicative of much hopefully. Dean will win easy in New Hampshire. John Kerry may have won today, but he won't win New Hampshire. New Hampshire has lost tons of jobs due to jobs going overseas, Bush's recession, and Kerry has voted for NAFTA and other free-trade agreements. Also, John Kerry voted for the war in Iraq, and Gephardt even drafted up the war authorization bill, that's why Gephardt dropped out, he knew he would get slaughtered in liberal New Hampshire. John Kerry has a record now of supporting unprovoked pre-emptive wars, Kerry was over in Vietnam with a machine gun, and Vietnam never attacked America. Kerry kept his mouth shut in 1998 when Clinton was bombing Iraq, and Kerry voted for the current war in Iraq, and Iraq never attacked America. Kerry has a track record now of being a warmonger, and 500 Americans are dead this time due to Kerry signing the war authorization.

The circus in Iowa tonight was nothing close to a democratic process. In many locations, Gephardt voters found out that Gephardt was not a 'viable' candidate at their certain location, so the Gephardt voters then had to vote for someone else. Gephardt voters would not flip over to Dean, because Dean was running negative TV commercials about Gephardt. So, many of the Gephardt supporters ended up voting for Edwards. I even saw on TV a co-chairman of the Gephardt campaign wearing a huge GEPHARDT t-shirt vote for Edwards along with many other Gephardt supporters. Also, Kucinich told all his voters to vote for Edwards in the caucus. Essentially, Edwards was 3 candidates wrapped into one body tonight, and his showing of 32% was far higher than his actual support basis.

As more and more American soldiers keep dying in Bush's illegal war, Dean will remind the American public that warmonger Kerry voted for dictator Bush's illegal war. Hopefully when Dean becomes president next year, he will send Bush, Kerry, Gephardt, and all the other warmongers to the Hague, and they can all go on trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Dean has always been against the war in Iraq, Kerry voted for the war in Iraq and now says Bush tricked him into it. Kerry's excuse of 'being tricked into it' isn't good enough. This shows that Kerry is just a follower and a puppet for Bush, Dean is a leader. Come November, we're not going to send Bush back to Texas, we're going to send Bush and Kerry over to the Hague to go on trial for war crimes, and they can both rot in jail together. Dean cannot be stopped, he is the best thing for America.

 

[Danospano]

I just took a look at the numbers and surprise is an understatement! I can't believe someone as a dull and monotone as John Kerry won the Iowa caucuas, let alone a senate seat in Massachusetts.

I'm a "Clark Guy" and believe he'll win the New Hampshire Primary due to Dean's newly-found vunerbilities. Kerry is still trailing Wes in the Granite State, so any support Dean loses will only help the General.

Please God, don't let Kerry win this thing. PLEASE LORD!!!!!!???

 

[kariatari]

Edwards and Kucinick struck a deal to support each other depending on the situation precinct by precinct.http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/19/elec04.prez.edwards.kucinich/index.html

That agreement actually got Kucinich a delegate in my precinct.

 

[Sherry Darling]

Congrats to Kerry! I've always liked him. Dean or Clark are higher up on my list. I love how Dean's raised $ and his populist thing and Clark just seems really brilliant. But Kerry is rock solid, and a Vet. Hmmm....

I have a question, and it goes to those who worry about Kerry being "dull" or who didn't like Gore cause he was "still" or "boring." My question is...why does this matter to you? Is it an electibility thing? No really reason, just don't like it? I guess I worry about the whole thing becoming a popularity contest rather than about the issues. Any insight would be appreciated.


sd

 

[Scarletwine]

Actually after watching CSPAN nonstop for the last few days, I don't think Kerry came across as dull. He had injected more passion into his speeches and adopted a bit of Deans anger, which I think helped him. Also he has some good slogans going in also.
I have to say I've been really impressed by John Edwards, although I wish he would go into more detail about his proposed policies (course I've been lazy and not investigated his website). He has a great populist view and is a marked opposite to Bush.

Actually I'm happy with the way Iowa turned out. I haven't made up my mind and like all three of the front runners. I also like Kucinich tagging Edwards. I didn't want the nomination to be easy for anyone. They need trial by fire to hold up against Dubyah. I also am pleased that negative ads seemed to backfire.
Don't I wish they were outlawed in the general election.

 

[sharky]

if you go to CNN's site they have a great snapshot of all the candidates' positions on different views. quick and easy.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/issues/index.html

 

[nbcrusader]

Clark is already attacking Kerry. Fun thing to be the front runner