OP
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ONE love, blood, life
Dreadsox said:
Finally one of the more astute minds of the fourm weighs in.
dbs
Hedging you bets...will they lose control?
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If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
Finally one of the more astute minds of the fourm weighs in.
dbs
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ONE love, blood, life
yolland said:
Some would rejoice.
dbs
OP
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ONE love, blood, life
Political Memo
Guardedly, Democrats Are Daring to Believe
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and ROBIN TONER
WASHINGTON, Oct. 21 — There is something unusual bubbling in Democratic political waters these days: optimism.
With each new delivery of bad news for Republicans — another Republican congressman under investigation, another Republican district conceded, another poll showing support for the Republican-controlled Congress collapsing — a party that has become so used to losing is considering, disbelievingly and with the requisite worry, the possibility that it could actually win in November.
“I’ve moved from optimistic to giddy,” said Gordon R. Fischer, a former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. “I really have.”
Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts, who is in line to become chairman of the Financial Services Committee in a Democratic House, offered wry evidence of the changing perception of the race. His office, Mr. Frank said, has been contacted by a portrait-painting firm offering to talk about possibilities for the traditional committee chairman’s painting, one of those perks of power long absent from the lives of House Democrats.
“I’ve acquired a lot of new friends this year,” Mr. Frank said. “And I haven’t gotten any nicer.”
For Democrats these days, life is one measure glee, one measure dread and one measure hubris. If they are as confident as they have been in a decade about regaining at least one house of Congress — and they are — it is a confidence tempered by the searing memories of being outmaneuvered, for three elections straight, by superior Republican organizing and financial strength, and by continued wariness about the political skills of President Bush’s senior adviser, Karl Rove.
Mr. Rove has made it clear that he considers Democratic optimism unjustified, predicting that his party’s cash advantage and get-out-the-vote expertise will dash Democratic dreams yet again. And Democrats say they welcome every passing dawn with relief, fearful that the next one will bring a development that could fundamentally alter the nature of the race, like the re-emergence of Osama bin Laden on election eve, which is what happened in 2004.
“I know a lot of people are in somersault land,” Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said reproachfully of fellow Democrats. “I just don’t have the liberty and freedom to do that.”
Still, Democratic ebullience could be found in all corners of Washington over the past few days. It was palpable at social and work gatherings, where Democrats traded gossip about how big a Democratic majority in the House could be; in Capitol Hill conference rooms, where Democrats were preparing transition plans (under orders to keep them quiet); and in offices of Democratic strategists and pollsters, who were drawing up growing lists of Republicans who might be vulnerable.
“I feel better than I ever have,” said Representative Louise M. Slaughter, a Democrat from upstate New York. “I think we have the best chance to take over simply because of the pileup of disasters.”
Stanley B. Greenberg, who was the White House pollster for President Bill Clinton in 1994 when Republicans shocked Democrats by capturing the House, commissioned a poll recently and e-mailed it around town with a single-word headline: “Meltdown.” In an interview, Mr. Greenberg said, “I don’t see how we can lose the House; I don’t think it’s even close.”
Ellen R. Malcolm, president of Emily’s List, a Democratic women’s network, and a longtime Democratic fund-raiser, said Democratic trepidations were beginning to melt away with each passing news cycle. “People are getting more encouraged by the day,” Ms. Malcolm said. “Every poll that comes in seems to be better than the one before.”
Representative Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, who is in line to become speaker if her party wins the House, has put out the word that no one should be talking with too much certainty or detail about the days after Nov. 7. But even Ms. Pelosi has slipped on occasion. In a recent interview with The Associated Press, when asked which suite of offices she would use as speaker, she said with a laugh, “I’ll have any suite I want.”
The change in mood, and evidence of Democratic strength in the polls and in fund-raising, is feeding some crucial deliberations by Democratic leaders as the discussion in some quarters goes from whether Democrats can win to how large a margin the party can gain.
Democratic candidates in districts that had been considered long shots are now pleading with Mr. Emanuel’s committee to send money their way. And some leading Democrats, among them Mr. Greenberg, are urging Mr. Emanuel to seize the moment by expanding the field in which Democrats are competing, saying the party has a chance to cement a big lead in the House in November.
This argument has worried some Democratic strategists, who warn that overconfidence could press party leaders into making decisions that may siphon resources from closely fought races and risk the Democrats’ advantage. “On the House side, it makes sense to be focusing on 25 seats to win 14, not 50,” said Steve Rosenthal, a political and labor consultant with close ties to the party, who described many Democrats as “overenthused.”
“If we had unlimited resources it would be different,” Mr. Rosenthal said. “But we have to be careful.”
Mr. Emanuel said he was polling to see where the party might move next. But he said that barring some last-minute infusion of money, he was considering a relatively limited increase in the number of seats where Democrats would spend. In the past week, Democrats have expanded their field to just over 40 races from about 35, running advertisements against Republicans they consider newly vulnerable in Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, upstate New York and Washington State.
Some Democrats have expressed apprehension that this exuberance may be irrational, or at least premature, and are counseling restraint. Part of that is tactical: Democrats are trying not to help the Republican Party as it works to turn out its conservative base by presenting apocalyptic visions of a Congress led by liberals like Mr. Frank, Ms. Pelosi and Representative Charles B. Rangel of New York.
Part of the Democrats’ queasiness stems from painful familiarity with Mr. Rove’s record of success, and from their own recognition that they hold only slim leads in many races and could yet fall victim to an assertive and sophisticated Republican turnout operation.
“I’m a little concerned that we are spending all our time talking about what our agenda will be in January rather than how we are going to get our votes out in early November,” said Chris Redfern, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party.
Some of that concern is about the long-term psychic damage the party’s rank-and-file may suffer if Democrats collapse at the finish line again. “We’ve all had these disappointments that contain our enthusiasm as we look to the last few weeks of this race,” said Tom Daschle, the Senate Democratic leader defeated in 2004.
Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic strategist who advised the presidential campaign of Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, said: “We all sat around in 2004 and looked at exit polls that said John Kerry was going to be president. And that was wrong. We’ve been up this hill before.”
To win the House, Democrats must capture 15 seats. Of the 40 or so they see in play, at most 5 are held by Democrats, strategists for both sides say.
The prospects for a Democratic takeover in the Senate, where the party needs six seats, are tougher. Republicans say four of their incumbents are in serious danger of losing — in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island — and are trying to build a firewall by pouring most of their resources into Senate races in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, where polls show the contests even.
Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said his committee, which has consistently out-raised its Republican counterpart this year, had more than enough money to compete with the Republicans in those states. Mr. Schumer said he was holding back some resources in case Republicans made an unexpected move in the final days of the campaign.
“They keep trying to pull rabbits out of the hat, but none of them come out,” he said. “But we are holding some money in abeyance for some kind of October surprise.”
While there may be a price to overconfidence, in a sense of complacency at some campaign headquarters, there are advantages at the grass-roots level, where it can fuel the excitement that Democrats hope will result in significant gains on Nov. 7. Republicans face the flip side of this problem, with the prospect that their voters, discouraged by the party’s travails, will stay home.
All this has put Democrats in an unfamiliar place, but one they seem to be enjoying. “I’m a congenital pessimist,” said Howard Wolfson, a consultant advising Democrats in several competitive contests in upstate New York. “But I’m as bullish on our chances as I have been at any time over the last 12 years.”
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MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Did anyone see Nancy Pelosi on 60 Minutes last night? I have to wonder if any guy would be asked all those questions about being "tough", and by a woman no less.
And why is this thread five stars?
And why is this thread five stars?
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
diamond said:
so, astute minds agree with yours?
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
MrsSpringsteen said:
And why is this thread five stars?
Yeah, it's interesting how both diamond threads are the only ones ranked...
phanan
Blue Crack Addict
I know that I would prefer the GOP to lose both the House and Senate, but I don't see it happening. Perhaps the House might change hands, but I still find the Democratic party to be quite disoriented in how to deal with the war in Iraq, with no clear cut message to deliver to people, and I fear that might cost them votes again.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
i fully believe that the best thing for the American people, and the world, is divided government. absolute power, in the hands of either party, leads to grotesque corruption. part of the reasons why the 1990s are now looking like such a Golden Era is the fact that we had a Republican congress and a Democratic president. they keep each other more honest.
i mean this as a legitimate question: is there a Republican who is genuinely proud of both the president and this particular Congress?
i mean this as a legitimate question: is there a Republican who is genuinely proud of both the president and this particular Congress?
U2democrat
Blue Crack Addict
Irvine511 said:
I agree. Balance and cycles are a good thing, even I would not support any sort of permanent Democratic majority because I know they would just end up horridly corrupt and inept the way the Republicans are now.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Haha, it went to three stars 
http://observer-reporter.com/Main.asp?SectionID=6&ArticleID=31129
JEFFERSON -- John Murtha has never been one to hold back on what he believes.
And the outspoken Johnstown Democrat, who is seeking re-election to Congress in the sprawling 12th District, didn't disappoint the crowd gathered Sunday night at the Jefferson fire hall to honor state Rep. Bill DeWeese as "Democrat of the Year."
Murtha, 74, one of several speakers at the Greene County Democratic Committee's fall banquet, said he has never seen people so eager for a change.
"There is going to be a tidal wave Nov. 7. The House of Representatives is going to turn Democratic, big time," Murtha said.
Why?
"Because the Republicans are not paying attention to the people. The Bush administration is arrogant," he said.
http://observer-reporter.com/Main.asp?SectionID=6&ArticleID=31129
JEFFERSON -- John Murtha has never been one to hold back on what he believes.
And the outspoken Johnstown Democrat, who is seeking re-election to Congress in the sprawling 12th District, didn't disappoint the crowd gathered Sunday night at the Jefferson fire hall to honor state Rep. Bill DeWeese as "Democrat of the Year."
Murtha, 74, one of several speakers at the Greene County Democratic Committee's fall banquet, said he has never seen people so eager for a change.
"There is going to be a tidal wave Nov. 7. The House of Representatives is going to turn Democratic, big time," Murtha said.
Why?
"Because the Republicans are not paying attention to the people. The Bush administration is arrogant," he said.
maycocksean
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
Irvine511 said:
Mmmm, I was always under the impression that astute minds agree with me.
najeena
War Child
I heard a quote the other day, something along the lines of "I've seen many a man go into Washington ready to clean it up, only to have the cesspool become a hot tub".
OP
OP
diamond
ONE love, blood, life
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
I'm not sure what's going to happen, but I can promise you the Republicans will try to cheat. Just like last time. Oh, and the time before that, too.
Oh Diebold, how I despise you...
Oh Diebold, how I despise you...
deep
Blue Crack Addict
OP
OP
diamond
ONE love, blood, life
Go to a Section:U.S.InternationalBusinessSmall BusinessMarketsPoliticsEntertainmentTechnologySportsOddly Enough2006 Election CoverageUnemployment rate lowest in nearly 5-1/2 years
Fri Nov 3, 2006 9:02am ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to its lowest in nearly 5-1/2 years during October as 92,000 more jobs were added and hiring in each of the two prior months was revised up, a government report on Friday showed.
The October new-jobs figure was below Wall Street economists' expectations for 125,000 but the Labor Department said a total 139,000 more jobs were created in August and September than it had previously thought. It revised up September's job-creation total to 148,000, or nearly three times the 51,000 it reported a month ago, and said there were 230,000 new jobs in August instead of 188,000.
The unemployment rate fell in October to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent in September. It was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.3 percent in May 2001 and was likely to fan concerns that labor markets are growing tight and could contribute to inflation pressures.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent to $16.91 - higher than the 0.3 percent that analysts had anticipated - while the average work week edged up to 33.9 hours from 33.8. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 3.9 percent, the department said.
Most of the new hiring in October was in service industries, where 152,000 new jobs were created, while goods-producing industries shed 60,000 jobs.
Fri Nov 3, 2006 9:02am ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to its lowest in nearly 5-1/2 years during October as 92,000 more jobs were added and hiring in each of the two prior months was revised up, a government report on Friday showed.
The October new-jobs figure was below Wall Street economists' expectations for 125,000 but the Labor Department said a total 139,000 more jobs were created in August and September than it had previously thought. It revised up September's job-creation total to 148,000, or nearly three times the 51,000 it reported a month ago, and said there were 230,000 new jobs in August instead of 188,000.
The unemployment rate fell in October to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent in September. It was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.3 percent in May 2001 and was likely to fan concerns that labor markets are growing tight and could contribute to inflation pressures.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent to $16.91 - higher than the 0.3 percent that analysts had anticipated - while the average work week edged up to 33.9 hours from 33.8. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 3.9 percent, the department said.
Most of the new hiring in October was in service industries, where 152,000 new jobs were created, while goods-producing industries shed 60,000 jobs.
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OP
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ONE love, blood, life
2 Days left:
Summary of Findings
A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.
The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
The survey suggests that the judgment of undecided voters will be crucial to the outcome of many congressional races this year. As many as 19% of voters now only lean to a candidate or are flatly undecided. The Democrats hold a 44% to 35% lead among committed voters. But the race is more even among voters who are less strongly committed to a candidate; those who only lean to a candidate divide almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats (5% lean Republican/4% lean Democrat).
Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections.
The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents. As recently as mid-October, 47% of independent voters said they were voting for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 29% who favored the Republican. Currently, Democrats lead by 44%-33% among independent voters.
Notably, President Bush's political standing has improved in the final week before the election. Bush's job approval rating among registered voters has risen from 37% in early October, to 41% in the current survey. Mirroring the GOP's gains among independent voters, Bush's rating among this crucial group of swing voters now stands at 35%, its highest point this year.
The final pre-election survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 2,369 registered voters from Nov. 1-4, finds that voter appraisals of the national economy also have improved. In the current poll, 44% rate it as excellent or good, compared with 36% who held that view in mid-October. Republicans and independents have a much better view of the economy than they did just a few weeks ago. Among independent voters, 41% rate the economy as good or excellent, compared with 29% in mid-October.
In addition, Sen. John Kerry's "botched joke" about the war in Iraq attracted enormous attention. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry's remarks with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush's statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense until he leaves office in 2009. Most voters say Kerry's statement is not a serious consideration in their vote, but 18% of independent voters say it did raise serious doubts about voting for a Democratic candidate.
GOP Voters More Engaged
For months, Democrats have expressed more interest in the election and enthusiasm about voting than have Republicans. The 'enthusiasm gap' was dramatic in Pew surveys in early October (18 points) and late October (17 points).
These differences have narrowed considerably. About half of Democratic voters (51%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, little change from Pew's two previous surveys. By contrast, 42% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting; that is fewer than the percentage of Democrats more enthused about going to vote, but 10 points higher than just a few weeks ago.
Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter's likelihood of voting. So while Pew polls in early October and mid-October showed virtually no change in the Democratic advantage between all voters and those most likely to turn out, the current survey shows the Democrats' eight-point lead among all registered voters narrowing considerably among likely voters. In this regard, the current campaign more closely resembles previous midterm elections since 1994, when Republicans also fared better among likely voters than among all registered voters.
Party Control a Major Factor
While Republicans have become more engaged in the campaign in recent weeks, an increasing number also say that the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote. Currently, 65% of Republicans say partisan control of Congress is a factor in their vote, up from 58% in early October and 54% in June. The percentage of Democrats who view partisan control of Congress a factor in their vote has remained more stable; 73% say that, up slightly from early October, but largely unchanged from June.
Compared to past campaigns, many more voters, regardless of party affiliation, say partisan control of Congress matters in their vote. Fully 61% of registered voters now express this view; fewer than half did so in November 2002 (48%) and November 1998 (46%).
Iraq Still Top Issue
The situation in Iraq remains the top issue of the midterm elections. Roughly half of voters (48%) cite the situation in Iraq as either the most important (or second most important) issue in their vote. Roughly four-in-ten (42%) cite the economy as a major issue in their vote, while 35% say health care. These opinions have changed very little over the past month.
The situation in Iraq is by far the top issue for Democrats (60%). About half of independents (46%) cite Iraq as an important issue in their vote, but 41% mention the economy and 36% health care. Among Republicans, comparable percentages view terrorism (41%), the economy (41%), and the situation in Iraq (38%) as the top issue in their vote. Immigration is a much more important issue for Republicans (31%) and independents (26%) than it is for Democrats (15%).
Interest High, But More 'Mud-Slinging'
The overall level of voter interest in this campaign is much higher than it has been for recent midterms. Fully 61% of voters say they have given a lot of thought to the election, while 33% say they have followed campaign news very closely. This far surpasses interest in the 2002 and the 1998 campaigns, and even the historic 1994 election, when the Republicans gained control of Congress.
At the same time, more voters feel that this election season has seen more "mud-slinging" than past elections. Overall, 65% of voters 72% of those who live in congressional districts with competitive contests say this campaign has been marred by more negative campaigning than in past elections; only about half of voters expressed this opinion at the end of the 2002 (51%) and 1998 (52%) midterms.
This is one issue on which there is little partisan division. Two-thirds of independents (67%), and nearly as many Democrats (65%) and Republicans (65%), say there has been more negative campaigning than in past elections.
Most Voters Have Been Contacted
Roughly six-in-ten voters (58%) say they have been contacted by candidates or political groups, either over the phone, in person, or by email. That represents a modest increase from early October (49%). Somewhat more Republicans (63%) than independents (58%) or Democrats (54%) say they have been contacted by campaigns. One-in-five Democrats (20%) say they have been urged to vote for a Democratic candidate. About the same number of Republicans (21%) say they have been urged to vote for one of their party's candidates; more Republicans than Democrats volunteer that they have been encouraged to vote for both GOP and Democratic candidates (19% vs. 14%).
GOP Gloom Increases
All year, Democrats have been much more bullish than the Republicans regarding their party's electoral prospects. The gap has widened in the campaign's final days. Fully 72% of Democratic voters say they think the Democratic Party will do better this year than it has in recent elections, up slightly from last month.
Meanwhile, more Republican voters feel the party will do worse than it has in recent elections (29% now vs. 21% last month). A plurality of GOP voters (48%) say the party will fare about the same as it has in recent elections, while just 17% think the Republican Party will do better than it has in recent years
Summary of Findings
A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.
The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
The survey suggests that the judgment of undecided voters will be crucial to the outcome of many congressional races this year. As many as 19% of voters now only lean to a candidate or are flatly undecided. The Democrats hold a 44% to 35% lead among committed voters. But the race is more even among voters who are less strongly committed to a candidate; those who only lean to a candidate divide almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats (5% lean Republican/4% lean Democrat).
Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections.
The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents. As recently as mid-October, 47% of independent voters said they were voting for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 29% who favored the Republican. Currently, Democrats lead by 44%-33% among independent voters.
Notably, President Bush's political standing has improved in the final week before the election. Bush's job approval rating among registered voters has risen from 37% in early October, to 41% in the current survey. Mirroring the GOP's gains among independent voters, Bush's rating among this crucial group of swing voters now stands at 35%, its highest point this year.
The final pre-election survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 2,369 registered voters from Nov. 1-4, finds that voter appraisals of the national economy also have improved. In the current poll, 44% rate it as excellent or good, compared with 36% who held that view in mid-October. Republicans and independents have a much better view of the economy than they did just a few weeks ago. Among independent voters, 41% rate the economy as good or excellent, compared with 29% in mid-October.
In addition, Sen. John Kerry's "botched joke" about the war in Iraq attracted enormous attention. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry's remarks with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush's statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense until he leaves office in 2009. Most voters say Kerry's statement is not a serious consideration in their vote, but 18% of independent voters say it did raise serious doubts about voting for a Democratic candidate.
GOP Voters More Engaged
For months, Democrats have expressed more interest in the election and enthusiasm about voting than have Republicans. The 'enthusiasm gap' was dramatic in Pew surveys in early October (18 points) and late October (17 points).
These differences have narrowed considerably. About half of Democratic voters (51%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, little change from Pew's two previous surveys. By contrast, 42% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting; that is fewer than the percentage of Democrats more enthused about going to vote, but 10 points higher than just a few weeks ago.
Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter's likelihood of voting. So while Pew polls in early October and mid-October showed virtually no change in the Democratic advantage between all voters and those most likely to turn out, the current survey shows the Democrats' eight-point lead among all registered voters narrowing considerably among likely voters. In this regard, the current campaign more closely resembles previous midterm elections since 1994, when Republicans also fared better among likely voters than among all registered voters.
Party Control a Major Factor
While Republicans have become more engaged in the campaign in recent weeks, an increasing number also say that the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote. Currently, 65% of Republicans say partisan control of Congress is a factor in their vote, up from 58% in early October and 54% in June. The percentage of Democrats who view partisan control of Congress a factor in their vote has remained more stable; 73% say that, up slightly from early October, but largely unchanged from June.
Compared to past campaigns, many more voters, regardless of party affiliation, say partisan control of Congress matters in their vote. Fully 61% of registered voters now express this view; fewer than half did so in November 2002 (48%) and November 1998 (46%).
Iraq Still Top Issue
The situation in Iraq remains the top issue of the midterm elections. Roughly half of voters (48%) cite the situation in Iraq as either the most important (or second most important) issue in their vote. Roughly four-in-ten (42%) cite the economy as a major issue in their vote, while 35% say health care. These opinions have changed very little over the past month.
The situation in Iraq is by far the top issue for Democrats (60%). About half of independents (46%) cite Iraq as an important issue in their vote, but 41% mention the economy and 36% health care. Among Republicans, comparable percentages view terrorism (41%), the economy (41%), and the situation in Iraq (38%) as the top issue in their vote. Immigration is a much more important issue for Republicans (31%) and independents (26%) than it is for Democrats (15%).
Interest High, But More 'Mud-Slinging'
The overall level of voter interest in this campaign is much higher than it has been for recent midterms. Fully 61% of voters say they have given a lot of thought to the election, while 33% say they have followed campaign news very closely. This far surpasses interest in the 2002 and the 1998 campaigns, and even the historic 1994 election, when the Republicans gained control of Congress.
At the same time, more voters feel that this election season has seen more "mud-slinging" than past elections. Overall, 65% of voters 72% of those who live in congressional districts with competitive contests say this campaign has been marred by more negative campaigning than in past elections; only about half of voters expressed this opinion at the end of the 2002 (51%) and 1998 (52%) midterms.
This is one issue on which there is little partisan division. Two-thirds of independents (67%), and nearly as many Democrats (65%) and Republicans (65%), say there has been more negative campaigning than in past elections.
Most Voters Have Been Contacted
Roughly six-in-ten voters (58%) say they have been contacted by candidates or political groups, either over the phone, in person, or by email. That represents a modest increase from early October (49%). Somewhat more Republicans (63%) than independents (58%) or Democrats (54%) say they have been contacted by campaigns. One-in-five Democrats (20%) say they have been urged to vote for a Democratic candidate. About the same number of Republicans (21%) say they have been urged to vote for one of their party's candidates; more Republicans than Democrats volunteer that they have been encouraged to vote for both GOP and Democratic candidates (19% vs. 14%).
GOP Gloom Increases
All year, Democrats have been much more bullish than the Republicans regarding their party's electoral prospects. The gap has widened in the campaign's final days. Fully 72% of Democratic voters say they think the Democratic Party will do better this year than it has in recent elections, up slightly from last month.
Meanwhile, more Republican voters feel the party will do worse than it has in recent elections (29% now vs. 21% last month). A plurality of GOP voters (48%) say the party will fare about the same as it has in recent elections, while just 17% think the Republican Party will do better than it has in recent years
OP
OP
diamond
ONE love, blood, life
Parties Crank Up Voter Turnout Efforts
Amid the Last-Minute Blitz, Some Polls Hold Positive Signs for Republicans
By Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, November 6, 2006; A01
Republicans seized on signs of movement in their direction yesterday as they unleashed a massive election-eve voter mobilization operation in an effort to stave off potentially substantial losses in the House and preserve at least a slender majority in the Senate.
Democrats answered the Republicans' get-out-the-vote machinery with intensified efforts to contact infrequent and still-undecided voters in a handful of tight Senate races as well as in more than two dozen GOP-held House districts where races were too close to call.
A Pew Research Center poll showed a significant narrowing in the partisan advantage in House races that the Democrats have enjoyed for much of the year, findings that echoed those of a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Saturday showing the Democrats with a six-point edge.
The Pew poll showed that the Democratic advantage had dropped to 47 percent to Republicans' 43 percent among likely voters, down from 50 percent to 39 percent two weeks ago. The poll found a drop in Democratic support among independents, but Pew Director Andrew Kohut said the most significant change over the past two weeks is that Republicans now outnumber Democrats among likely voters.
Separately, a USA Today/Gallup Poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters on the "generic vote" -- the question of which party voters intend to support in House races -- down from a 13-percentage-point advantage two weeks ago. But the newspaper noted Republicans enjoyed a similar 7-point edge on the eve of their 1994 landslide victory.
Other weekend polls by Time and Newsweek magazines continued to show Republicans at a steep disadvantage, with Democrats enjoying double-digit margins in party preferences for the House.
GOP strategists said they think their prospects continue to improve as voters digest the guilty verdict against former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, positive economic statistics and the prospect of Democrats taking control of one or both chambers of the legislative branch. "I have always believed that Republican voters in many cases come home later, particularly this year," said Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman.
President Bush campaigned yesterday in two conservative Plains states, Nebraska and Kansas, where there are no competitive statewide races but where Kansas Rep. Jim Ryun (R) is in trouble and where Nebraska state Sen. Adrian Smith (R) is struggling to win an open seat in a heavily Republican district.
A senior GOP strategist said party officials anticipated that the generic vote would tighten, but they do not consider the shift significant enough to change the contours of this election. More than 20 GOP incumbents are tied with their opponents heading into the final days. "It is the 50-50 districts that turnout can help," said the strategist, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to talk about strategy.
Democrats, mindful of the Republicans' success in getting their voters to the polls in the past two elections, expressed nervousness at signs of tightening in some national polls. But they said private and some public polling in contested House districts continued to show their party in a position to win enough seats to claim the majority.
"I don't know what to make of it," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Senate races in Virginia, Missouri and Montana, all for seats currently held by Republicans, remained among the closest in the country. Contests in Republican-held Tennessee and Democratic-held Maryland looked tight as well, depending on the poll. One survey showed the race in Rhode Island, a state Democrats must take to win the Senate, very close.
Strategists sought solace in any survey that looked good, but with less than 48 hours remaining before the polls close on Tuesday, both parties concentrated on direct voter contact, built on months of sophisticated analysis of the electorate and microtargeting of tens of millions of voters around the country.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee expected to spend roughly $25 million on its voter mobilization efforts; the DCCC was set to spend $10 million. The Democratic National Committee has given the other committees about $8 million for get-out-the-vote activities.
The Republican National Committee planned to expend about $30 million on its operations. While that was less than the Democrats, Republicans began with a significant advantage in technology and information, having spent tens of millions in earlier campaigns building voter lists and modeling the electorate. Democrats have tried to create those models this year.
Democratic strategists said privately that overall, there is less money flowing into key states this year than during the 2004 presidential election.
Democrats and Republicans were both counting on help from outside groups. Conservative groups were contacting their supporters, while progressive groups like MoveOn.org and America Votes were turning up their operations. MoveOn.org members made 800,000 phone calls yesterday and plan another 1.2 million each today and Tuesday. Organized labor said it would put 30,000 volunteers on the streets to contact union members.
Both sides boasted about their turnout operations. Democrats said they have signed up one volunteer for every 21 voters in Montana, while Republicans said they directly contacted one in 10 registered voters in that state on Saturday alone.
In Missouri, Democrats planned to contact several hundred thousand "drop-off voters" -- those who vote in presidential but not midterm elections -- and tens of thousands of undecided voters before Tuesday. Republicans were contacting about 200,000 targeted Missouri voters a day.
GOP officials said their biggest concern is the inability to turn out voters in districts they did not originally consider at risk. "We're able to move financial resources, but it's almost impossible to get human resources" into these newly competitive districts, said the GOP strategist.
It was that reality that took Bush to the Plains states yesterday. In heavily Republican districts, aides said, the president could make up for what the NRCC could not do. But Bush's weekend schedule also showed that, because he has less sway with independents, there are many districts where his presence could do as much harm as good.
In another sign of how Bush's market value has fallen, Florida gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist said yesterday that he would skip the president's rally in Pensacola this morning. The White House put the Florida stop on Bush's election-eve schedule specifically to promote Crist, only to be embarrassed by his last-minute defection. That will make the most prominent Florida politician appearing at the event Senate candidate Rep. Katherine Harris, who appears headed for a crushing defeat and whom the Bush family has tried to avoid this fall.
Elsewhere, in New Hampshire, Rep. Charles Bass (R) has seen his 20-point lead evaporate in the past five weeks, leaving the RNC with little time to implement even a bare-bones version of its mobilization plan, known as the 72-hour program. "We are not counting on them," said Matt Hagerty, campaign manager for Bass.
Instead, Bass is using an old-fashioned operation that relies on volunteers calling supporters, knocking on their doors and sending out 40,000 e-mails reminding them to vote. "We are running the same operation the congressman has run for the last six cycles," Hagerty said.
The DCCC identified 40 competitive districts in September and has continued to focus on them, rather than trying to build get-out-the-vote operations in some of these districts that have unexpected opportunities. Bass's Democratic challenger, Paul Hodes, is getting strategic advice from the DCCC but is relying mostly on a network of volunteers to turn out voters.
"You cannot buy G.O.T.V.," said Dana Houle, campaign manager for Hodes, referring to get-out-the-vote efforts. "You have to lay the foundation in terms of volunteer recruitment months beforehand."
Turnout operations can affect only races that are decided by a few thousand votes. With this in mind, the Philadelphia suburbs have become a key battleground. Both sides anticipated that the rematch between Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) and Democrat Lois Murphy could be decided by a percentage point or two, both plowed resources into the race over the summer in preparation for the final 72 hours of the campaign, and both expressed confidence in their operations.
But it is impossible to determine how voters will react. One group of GOP volunteers hit a leafy neighborhood over the weekend to rally support for Gerlach, but they made contact with only five of 73 GOP households they approached.
Activity has been especially intense in Indiana's 2nd District, where Rep. Chris Chocola (R) faces possible defeat by Democrat Joe Donnelly. Republicans said they contacted 124,000 households in recent days -- more than half of all households in the district. One Donnelly canvasser visited so many households in the Logansport area that the local marshal forced him to register as a solicitor.
Amid the Last-Minute Blitz, Some Polls Hold Positive Signs for Republicans
By Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, November 6, 2006; A01
Republicans seized on signs of movement in their direction yesterday as they unleashed a massive election-eve voter mobilization operation in an effort to stave off potentially substantial losses in the House and preserve at least a slender majority in the Senate.
Democrats answered the Republicans' get-out-the-vote machinery with intensified efforts to contact infrequent and still-undecided voters in a handful of tight Senate races as well as in more than two dozen GOP-held House districts where races were too close to call.
A Pew Research Center poll showed a significant narrowing in the partisan advantage in House races that the Democrats have enjoyed for much of the year, findings that echoed those of a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Saturday showing the Democrats with a six-point edge.
The Pew poll showed that the Democratic advantage had dropped to 47 percent to Republicans' 43 percent among likely voters, down from 50 percent to 39 percent two weeks ago. The poll found a drop in Democratic support among independents, but Pew Director Andrew Kohut said the most significant change over the past two weeks is that Republicans now outnumber Democrats among likely voters.
Separately, a USA Today/Gallup Poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters on the "generic vote" -- the question of which party voters intend to support in House races -- down from a 13-percentage-point advantage two weeks ago. But the newspaper noted Republicans enjoyed a similar 7-point edge on the eve of their 1994 landslide victory.
Other weekend polls by Time and Newsweek magazines continued to show Republicans at a steep disadvantage, with Democrats enjoying double-digit margins in party preferences for the House.
GOP strategists said they think their prospects continue to improve as voters digest the guilty verdict against former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, positive economic statistics and the prospect of Democrats taking control of one or both chambers of the legislative branch. "I have always believed that Republican voters in many cases come home later, particularly this year," said Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman.
President Bush campaigned yesterday in two conservative Plains states, Nebraska and Kansas, where there are no competitive statewide races but where Kansas Rep. Jim Ryun (R) is in trouble and where Nebraska state Sen. Adrian Smith (R) is struggling to win an open seat in a heavily Republican district.
A senior GOP strategist said party officials anticipated that the generic vote would tighten, but they do not consider the shift significant enough to change the contours of this election. More than 20 GOP incumbents are tied with their opponents heading into the final days. "It is the 50-50 districts that turnout can help," said the strategist, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to talk about strategy.
Democrats, mindful of the Republicans' success in getting their voters to the polls in the past two elections, expressed nervousness at signs of tightening in some national polls. But they said private and some public polling in contested House districts continued to show their party in a position to win enough seats to claim the majority.
"I don't know what to make of it," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Senate races in Virginia, Missouri and Montana, all for seats currently held by Republicans, remained among the closest in the country. Contests in Republican-held Tennessee and Democratic-held Maryland looked tight as well, depending on the poll. One survey showed the race in Rhode Island, a state Democrats must take to win the Senate, very close.
Strategists sought solace in any survey that looked good, but with less than 48 hours remaining before the polls close on Tuesday, both parties concentrated on direct voter contact, built on months of sophisticated analysis of the electorate and microtargeting of tens of millions of voters around the country.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee expected to spend roughly $25 million on its voter mobilization efforts; the DCCC was set to spend $10 million. The Democratic National Committee has given the other committees about $8 million for get-out-the-vote activities.
The Republican National Committee planned to expend about $30 million on its operations. While that was less than the Democrats, Republicans began with a significant advantage in technology and information, having spent tens of millions in earlier campaigns building voter lists and modeling the electorate. Democrats have tried to create those models this year.
Democratic strategists said privately that overall, there is less money flowing into key states this year than during the 2004 presidential election.
Democrats and Republicans were both counting on help from outside groups. Conservative groups were contacting their supporters, while progressive groups like MoveOn.org and America Votes were turning up their operations. MoveOn.org members made 800,000 phone calls yesterday and plan another 1.2 million each today and Tuesday. Organized labor said it would put 30,000 volunteers on the streets to contact union members.
Both sides boasted about their turnout operations. Democrats said they have signed up one volunteer for every 21 voters in Montana, while Republicans said they directly contacted one in 10 registered voters in that state on Saturday alone.
In Missouri, Democrats planned to contact several hundred thousand "drop-off voters" -- those who vote in presidential but not midterm elections -- and tens of thousands of undecided voters before Tuesday. Republicans were contacting about 200,000 targeted Missouri voters a day.
GOP officials said their biggest concern is the inability to turn out voters in districts they did not originally consider at risk. "We're able to move financial resources, but it's almost impossible to get human resources" into these newly competitive districts, said the GOP strategist.
It was that reality that took Bush to the Plains states yesterday. In heavily Republican districts, aides said, the president could make up for what the NRCC could not do. But Bush's weekend schedule also showed that, because he has less sway with independents, there are many districts where his presence could do as much harm as good.
In another sign of how Bush's market value has fallen, Florida gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist said yesterday that he would skip the president's rally in Pensacola this morning. The White House put the Florida stop on Bush's election-eve schedule specifically to promote Crist, only to be embarrassed by his last-minute defection. That will make the most prominent Florida politician appearing at the event Senate candidate Rep. Katherine Harris, who appears headed for a crushing defeat and whom the Bush family has tried to avoid this fall.
Elsewhere, in New Hampshire, Rep. Charles Bass (R) has seen his 20-point lead evaporate in the past five weeks, leaving the RNC with little time to implement even a bare-bones version of its mobilization plan, known as the 72-hour program. "We are not counting on them," said Matt Hagerty, campaign manager for Bass.
Instead, Bass is using an old-fashioned operation that relies on volunteers calling supporters, knocking on their doors and sending out 40,000 e-mails reminding them to vote. "We are running the same operation the congressman has run for the last six cycles," Hagerty said.
The DCCC identified 40 competitive districts in September and has continued to focus on them, rather than trying to build get-out-the-vote operations in some of these districts that have unexpected opportunities. Bass's Democratic challenger, Paul Hodes, is getting strategic advice from the DCCC but is relying mostly on a network of volunteers to turn out voters.
"You cannot buy G.O.T.V.," said Dana Houle, campaign manager for Hodes, referring to get-out-the-vote efforts. "You have to lay the foundation in terms of volunteer recruitment months beforehand."
Turnout operations can affect only races that are decided by a few thousand votes. With this in mind, the Philadelphia suburbs have become a key battleground. Both sides anticipated that the rematch between Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) and Democrat Lois Murphy could be decided by a percentage point or two, both plowed resources into the race over the summer in preparation for the final 72 hours of the campaign, and both expressed confidence in their operations.
But it is impossible to determine how voters will react. One group of GOP volunteers hit a leafy neighborhood over the weekend to rally support for Gerlach, but they made contact with only five of 73 GOP households they approached.
Activity has been especially intense in Indiana's 2nd District, where Rep. Chris Chocola (R) faces possible defeat by Democrat Joe Donnelly. Republicans said they contacted 124,000 households in recent days -- more than half of all households in the district. One Donnelly canvasser visited so many households in the Logansport area that the local marshal forced him to register as a solicitor.
OP
OP
diamond
ONE love, blood, life
i so love dread.
nads and all.
that's my boy.
dbs
nads and all.
that's my boy.
dbs
OP
OP
diamond
ONE love, blood, life
Week of November 6, 2006
by Robert Novak
Posted Nov 06, 2006
November 6, 2006
Washington, DC
Special Edition
To: Our Readers
Democrats are set to gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and five governorships in tomorrow's elections. It is a sign of Republicans' sorry state that, at this point, this is actually a very favorable outlook for them.
In the last day of the midterm election campaign, we offer a final run-down of how candidates are doing in each contested district or state. We aim to give a complete forecast on tomorrow's competitive election contests in this final-hour newsletter, which will be followed up by a post-election analysis on Wednesday.
Expectations Game: At this point, there will be no new polls, no major news events capable of significantly disrupting the election cycle.
We know one thing for sure: Republicans are going to lose ground in both houses of Congress. The White House presents, as its rosiest scenario, a loss of 12 House seats. This is not entirely impossible, but it is too optimistic for the realistic observer.
If Democrats fail, it will set off an even worse intra-party bloodbath than came after the 2000 and 2004 elections.
If Democrats succeed, it will be for two reasons:
The first is an arrogant and politically tin-eared Republican establishment in Washington. In the handling of key issues such as the occupation of Iraq, the response to Hurricane Katrina, and a meaningful follow-through on Social Security reform, the White House displayed incompetence.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Republicans encouraged practices (such as earmarking in the appropriations process) that let corruption run free. When scandal hit, they handled it badly, particularly in the most recent case of disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.). They also went to great lengths to alienate their base on the issue of immigration reform, and they created an issue for Democrats in the form of embryonic stem-cell research. Recall that federal funding for embryonic research received a vote on the House floor only when the House Republican leadership made a deal with moderates in order to pass their budget in 2005.
Last, but not least, comes the brilliant candidate recruiting and fundraising on the part of two men – Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). And should it occur, Democratic victory will come in spite of the total incompetence of Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Howard Dean.
But what about the unlikely event that Republicans succeed in keeping both the House and the Senate? Republican pundits deceive when they lower the bar, writing now of a Democratic sweep of the House as something that had always been inevitable. In fact, no one but the biggest Democratic dreamer could have expected a 15-seat gain in the House in 2006 after the historic 2004 election solidified GOP power around the country at the federal and, in most places, the state level. The thought that Democrats might actually take the Senate was not even in the minds of the most partisan Democratic dreamers.
But the reality of expectations has now changed. Republicans would be euphoric to cling to a one-seat advantage in the House and a 50-50 Senate. In fact, it would probably be demonstrative proof that, in the long haul, their grip on the nation is bulletproof. If you can't lose an election after all that has happened in the last two years, it may not be possible to lose.
If Republicans win, it will be for one reason: a superior turnout operation. The electorate will answer several questions tomorrow, but the most interesting one for Republicans is whether the Karl Rove-Ken Mehlman voter-turnout program is really all that powerful? Can it bring to the polls significant numbers of voters who in the past would have skipped the midterm, voting only in presidential contests? Can it be the Republicans' deus ex machina in the final act of the 2006 election, pulling the closest races out of the fire, and perhaps even providing some late surprises?
Late GOP Shift: Is there any truth to the late shift toward the Republicans that is being reported in the news and played out in some public polls? There are ways of knowing this.
First, there is a small hint buried in the discrepancies in responses between "registered" and "likely" voters in the public polls. For months, many polls have shown Democrats doing better among the carefully screened sample of "likely" voters than among the great unwashed mass of "registered" voters. Historically, it has been the opposite: Republicans have performed better when the likely non-voters are excluded. Polls are now reflecting a return to that historical normalcy -- Republicans perform better among "likely" voters.
This is a small but noteworthy sign that the GOP base is coming home and will vote rather than sit it out. If Republicans were to lose their historic advantage of their registered voters' turning out more reliably than those of Democrats, they would likely suffer a disastrous loss of more than 30 seats. They seem to have avoided the tsunami that everyone had been talking about.
Also significant is the GOP's late surge in the national generic ballot. We put almost no faith in the generic ballot's margin as an indicator of how the election will go. Recall that Republicans actually trailed by five points in the final Washington Post generic ballot in 1994. But trends in the generic ballot usually mean something. After favoring Democrats heavily for months, often by double digits, three generic ballot tests show Republicans closing the gap.
Late Results: Enormous Republican efforts to encourage early and absentee voting could dramatically skew exit polls. Do not be surprised if the apparent results Tuesday night are overturned by Wednesday morning in several close House races. Also, expect a few recounts.
House 2006
Below is a very brief summary of the competitive House races, with our final predictions, listed in the order that each state's polls close. Democrats +19, Republicans -19.
7 PM EST
Georgia-3: Rep. Mac Collins (R) has finished very strong, running a much more competitive race than anyone had believed possible against moderate Rep. Jim Marshall (D). Marshall leads well within the margin or error -- a lead so small that the expected rainstorm tomorrow in central Georgia could throw the race to Collins. Leaning Republican Takeover.
Georgia-12: Former Rep. Max Burns (R) is close enough that we expect him to catch Rep. John Barrow (D) tomorrow. If he fails, it is because he lacked a strong ground game in the rural parts of the district. Leaning Republican Takeover.
Indiana-2: Once given up for dead by the Beltway crowd, Rep. Chris Chocola (R) might actually be saved at the last second by dint of an extremely strong volunteer get-out-the-vote operation. He still trails his 2004 opponent, businessman Joe Donnelly (D) as of the last public polls.
This race is a bellwether. If Chocola somehow wins, it will be a testimony to the success of the RNC 72-hour program and the Rove-Mehlman election model. It will also be a sign that it's worth staying up to see if Republicans can hold on to the House. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Indiana-7: This race popped up late on the radar screen, but the polls showing Rep. Julia Carson (D) in serious trouble are not to be believed. She will win handily, turning back former auto dealer Eric Dickerson (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
Indiana-8: Rep. John Hostettler's (R) demise has been prematurely reported in the past, but it is hard to see him pulling it out this time. Vandenburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) will put an end to Hostettler's political career, but it will be closer than the seven-point margin shown in the polls. The only reason for Hostettler's problems has been his refusal to raise PAC money coupled with his rigid adherence to his grassroots model of campaigning. A staunch conservative, he is one of the few Republicans who voted against the Iraq War, and he has tried to save himself at the last minute by reminding voters of that fact. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Indiana-9: After trailing throughout the summer and fall, Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) has finally surged ahead in the late stages and should win over his two-time rival, Rep. Baron Hill (D) in a best-of-three matchup. We move this race from Leaning Democratic Takeover to Leaning Republican Retention.
Kentucky-2: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) will easily defeat state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) in what had once figured to be a much closer race. Likely Republican Retention.
Kentucky-3: Rep. Anne Northup (R) has faced tougher challengers than newspaper publisher John Yarmuth (D) and turned them back, but Yarmuth has done well in what has been such a Democratic environment this year.
It is hard to give a clear picture of a race when two polls, taken simultaneously, show the incumbent six points ahead and six points behind at the same point in time, respectively. But Northup has done nothing special in the last week to bring defeat upon herself, and she has defied expectations enough in the past that we believe she will narrowly hang on. Leaning Republican Retention.
Kentucky-4: Rep. Geoff Davis (R) has run a strong race, whereas his opponent, former Rep. Ken Lucas (D), has taken an easy-going approach to the campaign. It should be close, but Davis should prevail. Leaning Republican Retention.
South Carolina-5: Rep. John Spratt (D) will crush state Rep. Ralph Norman (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
Vermont-AL: State Sen. Peter Welch (D) will defeat National Guard Adjutant General Martha Rainville (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
Virginia-2: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) should narrowly defeat Virginia Beach Tax Assessor Phil Kellam (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
7:30 PM
North Carolina-11: Ethically challenged Rep. Charles Taylor (R) is a goner this time, to be sacked tomorrow by moderate Heath Shuler (D), the former NFL quarterback. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Ohio-1: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is fighting for his political life against Cincinnati Councilman Steve Cranley (D). There has been no reliable polling in quite some time, but we believe that Chabot will survive this one, even though the available polls have him trailing by two points. Leaning Republican Retention.
Ohio-2: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) is not the ideal candidate, but Democrats had a better shot at her in 2005, when she narrowly won the special election to replace Rep. Rob Portman (R). She should be saved once again by the heavy Republican composition of her district and the left-wing politics of her opponent, medical doctor Victoria Wulsin (D). Schmidt has suffered late damage as the footage of her speech about Rep. John Murtha (D) has appeared in one of Wulsin's commercials. Leaning Republican Retention.
Ohio-6: The race between state Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) and state Rep. Chuck Blasdel (R) never became competitive. Likely Democratic Retention.
Ohio-15: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R), suffering from a sex scandal, her close friendship with former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.), and the general problems of the Ohio GOP, will lose to attorney Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Ohio-18: State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) did not prove to be the candidate Republicans needed to defeat attorney Zack Space (D). Likely Democratic Takeover.
8 PM EST
Connecticut-2: Rep. Rob Simmons (R), holding the most Democratic of Connecticut's House seats, appears ready to pull it off again over businessman Joe Courtney. We move this race from Leaning Democratic Takeover to Leaning Republican Retention.
Connecticut-4: Former Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D) should end the career of Rep. Chris Shays (R). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Connecticut-5: Rep. Nancy Johnson (R), once a sure thing, now looks like a loser against state Sen. Chris Murphy (D). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Florida-13: Banker Christine Jennings (D) is the favorite against auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) in this very wealthy, Republican district. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Florida-16: We believe that Republican state Rep. Joe Negron (R) will actually save Mark Foley's district from the fire, beating businessman Tim Mahoney (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Florida-22: Despite a few erratic polls near the end showing him losing big, Rep. Clay Shaw (R) appears to be narrowly ahead. He should survive the challenge of state Sen. Ron Klein (D) with heavy early voting and a strong ground game. Leaning Republican Retention.
Illinois-6: In one of the most closely watched and expensive races in the country this year, State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) should prevail over disabled Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Illinois-8: Businessman David McSweeney (R) has made this into a real race, but freshman Rep. Melissa Bean (D) now appears ready to retain control of her seat. Leaning Democratic Retention.
New Hampshire-2: Rep. Charlie Bass (R) was simply caught off guard, expecting an easy race. Now it appears he will lose narrowly to attorney Paul Hodes (D). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Pennsylvania-4: Rep. Melissa Hart (R) will survive a late scare from health care lobbyist Jason Altmire (D). Likely Republican Retention.
Pennsylvania-6: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R), in a marginal seat, was never given much of a chance of keeping it. We believe he will lose re-election to lawyer Lois Murphy (D), who nearly unseated him in the much better GOP year of 2004. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Pennsylvania-7: Rep. Curt Weldon (R), smitten by scandal, will lose re-election to Ret. Rear Adm. Joe Sestak (D). Likely Democratic Takeover.
Pennsylvania-8: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) should squeak this one out against left-wing activist and Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy (D). Fitzpatrick has the help of a small volunteer army of Catholic staffers on Capitol Hill. Leaning Republican Retention.
Pennsylvania-10: Rep. Don Sherwood (R) is now paying a $500,000 settlement to his girlfriend, who claimed he tried to choke her. This is the only reason he will lose to Chris Carney (D), a former intelligence analyst. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Pennsylvania-12: Rep. Jack Murtha (D) will easily survive the challenge by Washington County Commissioner Diane Irey (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
9 PM EST
Arizona-1: Scandal charges against Rep. Rick Renzi (R) never really got legs, and that will allow him to survive against attorney Ellen Simon. Likely Republican Retention.
Arizona-5: Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) should hang on -- barely -- in his race against state Sen. Harry Mitchell (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Arizona-8: State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) should defeat Rep. Randy Graf (R). If Graf pulls it off, it will be a sign that immigration is a much better issue than anyone previously thought. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Colorado-4: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) will narrowly survive the challenge of college professor Angie Paccione (D). The marriage amendment on the ballot (see below) will help Musgrave, who has championed the issue in Congress. Leaning Republican Retention.
Colorado-5: State Sen. Doug Lamborn (R) will fend off TK Jay Fawcett (D) in a district that is too Red for him to lose. The disgrace of the Rev. Ted Haggard was designed to affect this race, but it will not be enough to put Fawcett over the top. Leaning Republican Retention.
Colorado-7: State Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D) will handily defeat former state education commissioner Rick O'Donnell (R). Likely Democratic Takeover.
Kansas-2: Rep. Jim Ryun (R) found himself in big trouble late against chemist Nancy Boyda (D), his repeat challenger. But he caught a lucky break when her husband remarked that Sen. John Kerry's remarks on the military and education were not a big deal. President Bush's visit also buoyed him, and the district is likely to come home to its strong Republican orientation. Leaning Republican Retention.
Minnesota-1: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) will defeat high school teacher Tim Walz (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Minnesota-6: State Sen. Michele Bachmann (R) has run a terrific campaign and should beat child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (D) by a close margin. Leaning Republican Retention.
Nebraska-3: With late help from President Bush, state Sen. Adrian Smith (R) should narrowly defeat rancher Scott Kleeb (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
New Mexico-1: This time, Rep. Heather Wilson (R) has too strong an opponent in Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid (D) to make the late surge that has always saved her in the past. She can never be wholly counted out, but we expect her to lose. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-19: Despite a late visit by former Ambassador Joe Wilson, Rep. Sue Kelly (R) should survive her tough race against musician John Hall (D). Likely Republican Retention.
New York-20: Rep. John Sweeney (R) is a goner after an old police report alleging domestic abuse was leaked to the press. Attorney Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is now expected to win. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-24: Oneida County D.A. Mike Arcuri (D) will seize this seat from the GOP, defeating state Sen. Ray Meier (R). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-25: Rep. James Walsh (R) has seen some softening in his numbers over the past week, but his internals still show him in the lead. His race promises to be very close against Dan Maffei (D), a former aide to Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) is still in a very close race, but he should edge out industrialist Jack Davis (D). If Reynolds loses, it may be the first time such a thing has happened to a party congressional campaign committee chairman. Leaning Republican Retention.
New York-29: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) is actually in much better shape than our earlier information suggested. Besides, his opponent, retired Naval officer Eric Massa (D), is now facing his own scandal allegations. Leaning Republican Retention.
Texas-22: Republicans have tried hard to win this seat through an early and absentee voting campaign that allows them to talk more with each voter. Still, the chances for Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) do not look good as a write-in. Her best chance lies in the unpopularity of Democrats in general and Rep. Nick Lampson (D) in particular. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Wisconsin-8: State Rep. John Gard (R) is favored to defeat allergist Steve Kagen (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Wyoming-AL: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) has done everything she can to lose, including threatening to slap a cripple. She will nevertheless edge out businessman Gary Trauner (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
10 PM EST
Iowa-1: Attorney Bruce Braley (D) should defeat Restaurateur Mike Whalen (R). Likely Democratic Takeover.
Iowa-3: Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) will overcome a challenge by state Sen. Jeff Lamberti (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
Nevada-2: Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) will hang on to this heavily Republican district and hold off a challenge by State University Regent Jill Derby (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Nevada-3: After a late scare, Rep. Jon Porter (R) appears to have righted the ship. He should defeat Tessa Hafen (D), press secretary to Sen. Harry Reid (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
11 PM EST
California-4: Rep. John Doolittle (R) will survive the Abramoff-centric campaign being waged against him by Air Force Lt. Col. Charles Brown (D). Likely Republican Retention.
California-11: Rep. Richard Pombo (R) shows all the signs of a drowning man. His is the most vulnerable district in California. The NRCC actually chartered a plane to fly volunteers to him on Saturday. This could be a sign that they are taking no chances, but it corresponds with other information that suggests real problems for Pombo. There has been no reliable polling in this race, but the fact that Pombo has not released any polls is a bad sign for him.
Pombo's opponent, engineer Jerry McNerney (D), has the backing of the left and scores of volunteers from the San Francisco Bay area. Left-wing groups softened up Pombo by spending the whole year making robo-calls against him. If they succeed in defeating him tomorrow, this strategy will surely be repeated in the future.
Pombo's saving grace may be the GOP absentee ballot effort here. The results may not be known until midday Wednesday or later. But Republicans are glum about this one. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Idaho-1: State Rep. Bill Sali (R) should narrowly defeat tech executive Larry Grant (D) in one of the nation's most Republican districts. Sali has shown weakness, though, and if he loses, it is a sign of a worst-case scenario day for Republicans. Leaning Republican Retention.
Washington-8: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) appears to have survived the onslaught by software executive Darcy Burner (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Senate 2006
Republicans' outlook for the Senate continues to deteriorate, but still, none of their close races are hopelessly lost. Democrats +2, Republicans -2.
by Robert Novak
Posted Nov 06, 2006
November 6, 2006
Washington, DC
Special Edition
To: Our Readers
Democrats are set to gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and five governorships in tomorrow's elections. It is a sign of Republicans' sorry state that, at this point, this is actually a very favorable outlook for them.
In the last day of the midterm election campaign, we offer a final run-down of how candidates are doing in each contested district or state. We aim to give a complete forecast on tomorrow's competitive election contests in this final-hour newsletter, which will be followed up by a post-election analysis on Wednesday.
Expectations Game: At this point, there will be no new polls, no major news events capable of significantly disrupting the election cycle.
We know one thing for sure: Republicans are going to lose ground in both houses of Congress. The White House presents, as its rosiest scenario, a loss of 12 House seats. This is not entirely impossible, but it is too optimistic for the realistic observer.
If Democrats fail, it will set off an even worse intra-party bloodbath than came after the 2000 and 2004 elections.
If Democrats succeed, it will be for two reasons:
The first is an arrogant and politically tin-eared Republican establishment in Washington. In the handling of key issues such as the occupation of Iraq, the response to Hurricane Katrina, and a meaningful follow-through on Social Security reform, the White House displayed incompetence.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Republicans encouraged practices (such as earmarking in the appropriations process) that let corruption run free. When scandal hit, they handled it badly, particularly in the most recent case of disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.). They also went to great lengths to alienate their base on the issue of immigration reform, and they created an issue for Democrats in the form of embryonic stem-cell research. Recall that federal funding for embryonic research received a vote on the House floor only when the House Republican leadership made a deal with moderates in order to pass their budget in 2005.
Last, but not least, comes the brilliant candidate recruiting and fundraising on the part of two men – Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). And should it occur, Democratic victory will come in spite of the total incompetence of Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Howard Dean.
But what about the unlikely event that Republicans succeed in keeping both the House and the Senate? Republican pundits deceive when they lower the bar, writing now of a Democratic sweep of the House as something that had always been inevitable. In fact, no one but the biggest Democratic dreamer could have expected a 15-seat gain in the House in 2006 after the historic 2004 election solidified GOP power around the country at the federal and, in most places, the state level. The thought that Democrats might actually take the Senate was not even in the minds of the most partisan Democratic dreamers.
But the reality of expectations has now changed. Republicans would be euphoric to cling to a one-seat advantage in the House and a 50-50 Senate. In fact, it would probably be demonstrative proof that, in the long haul, their grip on the nation is bulletproof. If you can't lose an election after all that has happened in the last two years, it may not be possible to lose.
If Republicans win, it will be for one reason: a superior turnout operation. The electorate will answer several questions tomorrow, but the most interesting one for Republicans is whether the Karl Rove-Ken Mehlman voter-turnout program is really all that powerful? Can it bring to the polls significant numbers of voters who in the past would have skipped the midterm, voting only in presidential contests? Can it be the Republicans' deus ex machina in the final act of the 2006 election, pulling the closest races out of the fire, and perhaps even providing some late surprises?
Late GOP Shift: Is there any truth to the late shift toward the Republicans that is being reported in the news and played out in some public polls? There are ways of knowing this.
First, there is a small hint buried in the discrepancies in responses between "registered" and "likely" voters in the public polls. For months, many polls have shown Democrats doing better among the carefully screened sample of "likely" voters than among the great unwashed mass of "registered" voters. Historically, it has been the opposite: Republicans have performed better when the likely non-voters are excluded. Polls are now reflecting a return to that historical normalcy -- Republicans perform better among "likely" voters.
This is a small but noteworthy sign that the GOP base is coming home and will vote rather than sit it out. If Republicans were to lose their historic advantage of their registered voters' turning out more reliably than those of Democrats, they would likely suffer a disastrous loss of more than 30 seats. They seem to have avoided the tsunami that everyone had been talking about.
Also significant is the GOP's late surge in the national generic ballot. We put almost no faith in the generic ballot's margin as an indicator of how the election will go. Recall that Republicans actually trailed by five points in the final Washington Post generic ballot in 1994. But trends in the generic ballot usually mean something. After favoring Democrats heavily for months, often by double digits, three generic ballot tests show Republicans closing the gap.
Late Results: Enormous Republican efforts to encourage early and absentee voting could dramatically skew exit polls. Do not be surprised if the apparent results Tuesday night are overturned by Wednesday morning in several close House races. Also, expect a few recounts.
House 2006
Below is a very brief summary of the competitive House races, with our final predictions, listed in the order that each state's polls close. Democrats +19, Republicans -19.
7 PM EST
Georgia-3: Rep. Mac Collins (R) has finished very strong, running a much more competitive race than anyone had believed possible against moderate Rep. Jim Marshall (D). Marshall leads well within the margin or error -- a lead so small that the expected rainstorm tomorrow in central Georgia could throw the race to Collins. Leaning Republican Takeover.
Georgia-12: Former Rep. Max Burns (R) is close enough that we expect him to catch Rep. John Barrow (D) tomorrow. If he fails, it is because he lacked a strong ground game in the rural parts of the district. Leaning Republican Takeover.
Indiana-2: Once given up for dead by the Beltway crowd, Rep. Chris Chocola (R) might actually be saved at the last second by dint of an extremely strong volunteer get-out-the-vote operation. He still trails his 2004 opponent, businessman Joe Donnelly (D) as of the last public polls.
This race is a bellwether. If Chocola somehow wins, it will be a testimony to the success of the RNC 72-hour program and the Rove-Mehlman election model. It will also be a sign that it's worth staying up to see if Republicans can hold on to the House. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Indiana-7: This race popped up late on the radar screen, but the polls showing Rep. Julia Carson (D) in serious trouble are not to be believed. She will win handily, turning back former auto dealer Eric Dickerson (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
Indiana-8: Rep. John Hostettler's (R) demise has been prematurely reported in the past, but it is hard to see him pulling it out this time. Vandenburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) will put an end to Hostettler's political career, but it will be closer than the seven-point margin shown in the polls. The only reason for Hostettler's problems has been his refusal to raise PAC money coupled with his rigid adherence to his grassroots model of campaigning. A staunch conservative, he is one of the few Republicans who voted against the Iraq War, and he has tried to save himself at the last minute by reminding voters of that fact. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Indiana-9: After trailing throughout the summer and fall, Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) has finally surged ahead in the late stages and should win over his two-time rival, Rep. Baron Hill (D) in a best-of-three matchup. We move this race from Leaning Democratic Takeover to Leaning Republican Retention.
Kentucky-2: Rep. Ron Lewis (R) will easily defeat state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) in what had once figured to be a much closer race. Likely Republican Retention.
Kentucky-3: Rep. Anne Northup (R) has faced tougher challengers than newspaper publisher John Yarmuth (D) and turned them back, but Yarmuth has done well in what has been such a Democratic environment this year.
It is hard to give a clear picture of a race when two polls, taken simultaneously, show the incumbent six points ahead and six points behind at the same point in time, respectively. But Northup has done nothing special in the last week to bring defeat upon herself, and she has defied expectations enough in the past that we believe she will narrowly hang on. Leaning Republican Retention.
Kentucky-4: Rep. Geoff Davis (R) has run a strong race, whereas his opponent, former Rep. Ken Lucas (D), has taken an easy-going approach to the campaign. It should be close, but Davis should prevail. Leaning Republican Retention.
South Carolina-5: Rep. John Spratt (D) will crush state Rep. Ralph Norman (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
Vermont-AL: State Sen. Peter Welch (D) will defeat National Guard Adjutant General Martha Rainville (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
Virginia-2: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) should narrowly defeat Virginia Beach Tax Assessor Phil Kellam (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
7:30 PM
North Carolina-11: Ethically challenged Rep. Charles Taylor (R) is a goner this time, to be sacked tomorrow by moderate Heath Shuler (D), the former NFL quarterback. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Ohio-1: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is fighting for his political life against Cincinnati Councilman Steve Cranley (D). There has been no reliable polling in quite some time, but we believe that Chabot will survive this one, even though the available polls have him trailing by two points. Leaning Republican Retention.
Ohio-2: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) is not the ideal candidate, but Democrats had a better shot at her in 2005, when she narrowly won the special election to replace Rep. Rob Portman (R). She should be saved once again by the heavy Republican composition of her district and the left-wing politics of her opponent, medical doctor Victoria Wulsin (D). Schmidt has suffered late damage as the footage of her speech about Rep. John Murtha (D) has appeared in one of Wulsin's commercials. Leaning Republican Retention.
Ohio-6: The race between state Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) and state Rep. Chuck Blasdel (R) never became competitive. Likely Democratic Retention.
Ohio-15: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R), suffering from a sex scandal, her close friendship with former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.), and the general problems of the Ohio GOP, will lose to attorney Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Ohio-18: State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) did not prove to be the candidate Republicans needed to defeat attorney Zack Space (D). Likely Democratic Takeover.
8 PM EST
Connecticut-2: Rep. Rob Simmons (R), holding the most Democratic of Connecticut's House seats, appears ready to pull it off again over businessman Joe Courtney. We move this race from Leaning Democratic Takeover to Leaning Republican Retention.
Connecticut-4: Former Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D) should end the career of Rep. Chris Shays (R). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Connecticut-5: Rep. Nancy Johnson (R), once a sure thing, now looks like a loser against state Sen. Chris Murphy (D). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Florida-13: Banker Christine Jennings (D) is the favorite against auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) in this very wealthy, Republican district. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Florida-16: We believe that Republican state Rep. Joe Negron (R) will actually save Mark Foley's district from the fire, beating businessman Tim Mahoney (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Florida-22: Despite a few erratic polls near the end showing him losing big, Rep. Clay Shaw (R) appears to be narrowly ahead. He should survive the challenge of state Sen. Ron Klein (D) with heavy early voting and a strong ground game. Leaning Republican Retention.
Illinois-6: In one of the most closely watched and expensive races in the country this year, State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) should prevail over disabled Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Illinois-8: Businessman David McSweeney (R) has made this into a real race, but freshman Rep. Melissa Bean (D) now appears ready to retain control of her seat. Leaning Democratic Retention.
New Hampshire-2: Rep. Charlie Bass (R) was simply caught off guard, expecting an easy race. Now it appears he will lose narrowly to attorney Paul Hodes (D). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Pennsylvania-4: Rep. Melissa Hart (R) will survive a late scare from health care lobbyist Jason Altmire (D). Likely Republican Retention.
Pennsylvania-6: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R), in a marginal seat, was never given much of a chance of keeping it. We believe he will lose re-election to lawyer Lois Murphy (D), who nearly unseated him in the much better GOP year of 2004. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Pennsylvania-7: Rep. Curt Weldon (R), smitten by scandal, will lose re-election to Ret. Rear Adm. Joe Sestak (D). Likely Democratic Takeover.
Pennsylvania-8: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) should squeak this one out against left-wing activist and Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy (D). Fitzpatrick has the help of a small volunteer army of Catholic staffers on Capitol Hill. Leaning Republican Retention.
Pennsylvania-10: Rep. Don Sherwood (R) is now paying a $500,000 settlement to his girlfriend, who claimed he tried to choke her. This is the only reason he will lose to Chris Carney (D), a former intelligence analyst. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Pennsylvania-12: Rep. Jack Murtha (D) will easily survive the challenge by Washington County Commissioner Diane Irey (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
9 PM EST
Arizona-1: Scandal charges against Rep. Rick Renzi (R) never really got legs, and that will allow him to survive against attorney Ellen Simon. Likely Republican Retention.
Arizona-5: Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) should hang on -- barely -- in his race against state Sen. Harry Mitchell (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Arizona-8: State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) should defeat Rep. Randy Graf (R). If Graf pulls it off, it will be a sign that immigration is a much better issue than anyone previously thought. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Colorado-4: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) will narrowly survive the challenge of college professor Angie Paccione (D). The marriage amendment on the ballot (see below) will help Musgrave, who has championed the issue in Congress. Leaning Republican Retention.
Colorado-5: State Sen. Doug Lamborn (R) will fend off TK Jay Fawcett (D) in a district that is too Red for him to lose. The disgrace of the Rev. Ted Haggard was designed to affect this race, but it will not be enough to put Fawcett over the top. Leaning Republican Retention.
Colorado-7: State Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D) will handily defeat former state education commissioner Rick O'Donnell (R). Likely Democratic Takeover.
Kansas-2: Rep. Jim Ryun (R) found himself in big trouble late against chemist Nancy Boyda (D), his repeat challenger. But he caught a lucky break when her husband remarked that Sen. John Kerry's remarks on the military and education were not a big deal. President Bush's visit also buoyed him, and the district is likely to come home to its strong Republican orientation. Leaning Republican Retention.
Minnesota-1: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) will defeat high school teacher Tim Walz (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Minnesota-6: State Sen. Michele Bachmann (R) has run a terrific campaign and should beat child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (D) by a close margin. Leaning Republican Retention.
Nebraska-3: With late help from President Bush, state Sen. Adrian Smith (R) should narrowly defeat rancher Scott Kleeb (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
New Mexico-1: This time, Rep. Heather Wilson (R) has too strong an opponent in Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid (D) to make the late surge that has always saved her in the past. She can never be wholly counted out, but we expect her to lose. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-19: Despite a late visit by former Ambassador Joe Wilson, Rep. Sue Kelly (R) should survive her tough race against musician John Hall (D). Likely Republican Retention.
New York-20: Rep. John Sweeney (R) is a goner after an old police report alleging domestic abuse was leaked to the press. Attorney Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is now expected to win. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-24: Oneida County D.A. Mike Arcuri (D) will seize this seat from the GOP, defeating state Sen. Ray Meier (R). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-25: Rep. James Walsh (R) has seen some softening in his numbers over the past week, but his internals still show him in the lead. His race promises to be very close against Dan Maffei (D), a former aide to Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.). Leaning Democratic Takeover.
New York-26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) is still in a very close race, but he should edge out industrialist Jack Davis (D). If Reynolds loses, it may be the first time such a thing has happened to a party congressional campaign committee chairman. Leaning Republican Retention.
New York-29: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) is actually in much better shape than our earlier information suggested. Besides, his opponent, retired Naval officer Eric Massa (D), is now facing his own scandal allegations. Leaning Republican Retention.
Texas-22: Republicans have tried hard to win this seat through an early and absentee voting campaign that allows them to talk more with each voter. Still, the chances for Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) do not look good as a write-in. Her best chance lies in the unpopularity of Democrats in general and Rep. Nick Lampson (D) in particular. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Wisconsin-8: State Rep. John Gard (R) is favored to defeat allergist Steve Kagen (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Wyoming-AL: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) has done everything she can to lose, including threatening to slap a cripple. She will nevertheless edge out businessman Gary Trauner (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
10 PM EST
Iowa-1: Attorney Bruce Braley (D) should defeat Restaurateur Mike Whalen (R). Likely Democratic Takeover.
Iowa-3: Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) will overcome a challenge by state Sen. Jeff Lamberti (R). Likely Democratic Retention.
Nevada-2: Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) will hang on to this heavily Republican district and hold off a challenge by State University Regent Jill Derby (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Nevada-3: After a late scare, Rep. Jon Porter (R) appears to have righted the ship. He should defeat Tessa Hafen (D), press secretary to Sen. Harry Reid (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
11 PM EST
California-4: Rep. John Doolittle (R) will survive the Abramoff-centric campaign being waged against him by Air Force Lt. Col. Charles Brown (D). Likely Republican Retention.
California-11: Rep. Richard Pombo (R) shows all the signs of a drowning man. His is the most vulnerable district in California. The NRCC actually chartered a plane to fly volunteers to him on Saturday. This could be a sign that they are taking no chances, but it corresponds with other information that suggests real problems for Pombo. There has been no reliable polling in this race, but the fact that Pombo has not released any polls is a bad sign for him.
Pombo's opponent, engineer Jerry McNerney (D), has the backing of the left and scores of volunteers from the San Francisco Bay area. Left-wing groups softened up Pombo by spending the whole year making robo-calls against him. If they succeed in defeating him tomorrow, this strategy will surely be repeated in the future.
Pombo's saving grace may be the GOP absentee ballot effort here. The results may not be known until midday Wednesday or later. But Republicans are glum about this one. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Idaho-1: State Rep. Bill Sali (R) should narrowly defeat tech executive Larry Grant (D) in one of the nation's most Republican districts. Sali has shown weakness, though, and if he loses, it is a sign of a worst-case scenario day for Republicans. Leaning Republican Retention.
Washington-8: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) appears to have survived the onslaught by software executive Darcy Burner (D). Leaning Republican Retention.
Senate 2006
Republicans' outlook for the Senate continues to deteriorate, but still, none of their close races are hopelessly lost. Democrats +2, Republicans -2.
I feel like I'm cheating a little entering a prediction the night before the election. But this IS what will happen.
Dems gain 22 seats in the house and take control. Repubs have narrowed the gap, but can't overcome the wave of congressional seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Dems only gain 2 seats in the senate. 4 short of control. Of the key races, they win Ohio and Pennsylvania. The 72-hour GOP GOTV proves the difference in the tight races.
Dems gain 22 seats in the house and take control. Repubs have narrowed the gap, but can't overcome the wave of congressional seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Dems only gain 2 seats in the senate. 4 short of control. Of the key races, they win Ohio and Pennsylvania. The 72-hour GOP GOTV proves the difference in the tight races.
anitram said:
I hope you are right. I am not making mine happily. Unfortunatley for the Democrats, my sources have been pretty much on the money the last few elections.
If the turnout is high, the democrats win.
If the turnout is low, the republicans win.
Rumors in political circles are the surge has been for the Republicans in the last week closing the gaps in many races.
OP
OP
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ONE love, blood, life
Mid-terms already a Republican victory and voter loss
05 November 2006
With only a few days remaining until voters cast their ballots in the mid-term election, a few disappointing circumstances are becoming evident that show the irrelevance of the Democratic party and therefore, the lack of options available to America's voters. The important point is not whether the Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, but is the fact that despite the widespread anti-Republican climate, they are seemingly unable to turn the race into a landslide.
Broad public sentiment polls are almost uniformly clear: voters are frustrated with Republicans, largely due to the war in Iraq, and declare the need for a leadership change in Congress. Political pundits have been arguing for weeks that these findings indicate that the mid-term elections are a referendum on the Republican-controlled congress (and President Bush) and that Democrats will be the beneficiaries. Yet, specific election polls remain close and the likely outcomes of key races remain uncertain.
Why are Democrats unable to overwhelmingly convince voters that they are a viable alternative to 12 years of Republican control in Congress, given the current anti-Republican environment that reaches into many traditional Republican strongholds? The reason is simple:
America's two main political parties have ceased to serve their purpose, which is to articulate a coherent political ideology, formulate a set of policies consistent with that ideology, and offer candidates that will champion that ideology and those policies.
Party loyalty among voters, at this point, is becoming a legacy. Unless the Democratic and Republican parties reinvent themselves, voters will likely continue to leave the political parties for independent (non-affiliated) status, which will cause increased control of the parties by their extreme elements.
Post-9/11 patriotism and hyper-effective "get out the vote" campaigns are strong components of the Republican party's crumbling facade of cohesiveness. However, the sizable fractures that have emerged in the Republican party over immigration reform, entitlement reform, Iraq policy, gay marriage, among others, reveals that several distinct and non-negotiable ideologies exist within the Republican party.
The Democrat's apparent inability to mount a decisive victory in the upcoming mid-term elections is a reflection of their paralysis, which also stems from the existence of several distinct and non-negotiable ideologies within the Democratic party. The sentiment in 2006, that this election is for the Democrats to lose, echoes the sentiment in the 2004 presidential election, which was seen as a referendum on President Bush and Senator Kerry's election to lose. He lost in 2004 for the same reasons that the Democrats will not have an appropriately strong showing in 2006.
Monday's endorsement of Maryland Republican Senatorial candidate Michael Steele by black Maryland Democratic leaders illustrates the breakdown in party lines. The Maryland Democrats realized that a black Republican was more aligned with their ideology than a white Democrat. Race and culture trumped political party.
An issue-by-issue examination of the two primary parties reveals near total disarray. Hence, the Executive has increased its power in the U.S. not because of specific Presidential agendas, but because of the ineffectiveness of the political parties to run Congress, which requires a strong collective identity for the majority party. That identity no longer exists for either party.
Whether or not the Democrats win the election, they have shown that they are barely relevant - even in an environment exceedingly hostile to their only opposition. And since the voters are now assured to have no viable alternatives to a fracturing Republican party, they lose.
05 November 2006
With only a few days remaining until voters cast their ballots in the mid-term election, a few disappointing circumstances are becoming evident that show the irrelevance of the Democratic party and therefore, the lack of options available to America's voters. The important point is not whether the Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, but is the fact that despite the widespread anti-Republican climate, they are seemingly unable to turn the race into a landslide.
Broad public sentiment polls are almost uniformly clear: voters are frustrated with Republicans, largely due to the war in Iraq, and declare the need for a leadership change in Congress. Political pundits have been arguing for weeks that these findings indicate that the mid-term elections are a referendum on the Republican-controlled congress (and President Bush) and that Democrats will be the beneficiaries. Yet, specific election polls remain close and the likely outcomes of key races remain uncertain.
Why are Democrats unable to overwhelmingly convince voters that they are a viable alternative to 12 years of Republican control in Congress, given the current anti-Republican environment that reaches into many traditional Republican strongholds? The reason is simple:
America's two main political parties have ceased to serve their purpose, which is to articulate a coherent political ideology, formulate a set of policies consistent with that ideology, and offer candidates that will champion that ideology and those policies.
Party loyalty among voters, at this point, is becoming a legacy. Unless the Democratic and Republican parties reinvent themselves, voters will likely continue to leave the political parties for independent (non-affiliated) status, which will cause increased control of the parties by their extreme elements.
Post-9/11 patriotism and hyper-effective "get out the vote" campaigns are strong components of the Republican party's crumbling facade of cohesiveness. However, the sizable fractures that have emerged in the Republican party over immigration reform, entitlement reform, Iraq policy, gay marriage, among others, reveals that several distinct and non-negotiable ideologies exist within the Republican party.
The Democrat's apparent inability to mount a decisive victory in the upcoming mid-term elections is a reflection of their paralysis, which also stems from the existence of several distinct and non-negotiable ideologies within the Democratic party. The sentiment in 2006, that this election is for the Democrats to lose, echoes the sentiment in the 2004 presidential election, which was seen as a referendum on President Bush and Senator Kerry's election to lose. He lost in 2004 for the same reasons that the Democrats will not have an appropriately strong showing in 2006.
Monday's endorsement of Maryland Republican Senatorial candidate Michael Steele by black Maryland Democratic leaders illustrates the breakdown in party lines. The Maryland Democrats realized that a black Republican was more aligned with their ideology than a white Democrat. Race and culture trumped political party.
An issue-by-issue examination of the two primary parties reveals near total disarray. Hence, the Executive has increased its power in the U.S. not because of specific Presidential agendas, but because of the ineffectiveness of the political parties to run Congress, which requires a strong collective identity for the majority party. That identity no longer exists for either party.
Whether or not the Democrats win the election, they have shown that they are barely relevant - even in an environment exceedingly hostile to their only opposition. And since the voters are now assured to have no viable alternatives to a fracturing Republican party, they lose.
OP
OP
diamond
ONE love, blood, life
Democrats strong, but Senate uncertain
Posted on November 6, 2006
WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 (UPI) -- Most polls showed Democrats holding a strong position on the eve of midterm elections that will determine which party controls the U.S. Congress.
But Republicans could take heart on news that Democrats were less likely to get the net gain of six seats necessary to control the Senate.
Democratic officials concede Senate seats in four states they thought were sure things, The New York Times reported, are no longer so certain: Rhode Island, Montana, Maryland and New Jersey.
However, other reports pointed to a large Democratic advantage going into Tuesday's vote. Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats for a majority in the House.
CNN said its poll released Monday showed a majority of Americans belive the country would be headed in the right direction on the economy, terrorism and most especially the Iraq war if Democrats controlled Congress.
Fox News said its poll showed 49 percent of voters favoring Democratic candidates, 36 percent Republicans and 15 percent undecided.
But Democrats had a slight edge over Republicans in voters who said they were likely to vote -- 89 percent to 81 percent.
The New York Times said most analysts predict a "strong Democratic wave" Tuesday, but both sides planned to be struggling hard to get out the vote.
Copyright 2006 by United Press International
Posted on November 6, 2006
WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 (UPI) -- Most polls showed Democrats holding a strong position on the eve of midterm elections that will determine which party controls the U.S. Congress.
But Republicans could take heart on news that Democrats were less likely to get the net gain of six seats necessary to control the Senate.
Democratic officials concede Senate seats in four states they thought were sure things, The New York Times reported, are no longer so certain: Rhode Island, Montana, Maryland and New Jersey.
However, other reports pointed to a large Democratic advantage going into Tuesday's vote. Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats for a majority in the House.
CNN said its poll released Monday showed a majority of Americans belive the country would be headed in the right direction on the economy, terrorism and most especially the Iraq war if Democrats controlled Congress.
Fox News said its poll showed 49 percent of voters favoring Democratic candidates, 36 percent Republicans and 15 percent undecided.
But Democrats had a slight edge over Republicans in voters who said they were likely to vote -- 89 percent to 81 percent.
The New York Times said most analysts predict a "strong Democratic wave" Tuesday, but both sides planned to be struggling hard to get out the vote.
Copyright 2006 by United Press International
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I believe John Hall is in the middle.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
trevster2k said:
I believe John Hall is in the middle.
you are right
John Hall = Orleans and he did win
he is a U S Congressman
not Darryl Hall
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