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Old 03-09-2012, 03:24 PM   #301
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If there is indeed an oil shock this year (seemingly more and more likely) and Americans are feeling the strain every day, I think the scales will tip in Mittens' favour.
If he is smart enough to announce that he will make Newt Secretary of Energy.*




* Newt has a plan to have gasoline cost $2.50 per gallon instead of the $5.50 Obama is supporting.
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Old 03-09-2012, 04:48 PM   #302
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We all know the media loves a horse-race, but the truth is that Santorum really has no mathematically viable path to the nomination.

How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math?

This is similar to last time when the media would act like Hilary Clinton still had a chance when it was literally impossible.

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If he wins Mississippi and Alabama and Missouri and Kansas this month, but Mr. Romney wins Illinois, that will be fairly consistent with how the states have behaved thus far. It will just so happen that a number of Mr. Romney’s poorer states will have come in a row, as Barack Obama had rough stretches against Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2008 when states like West Virginia and Kentucky voted. One should not confuse the deviations caused by the order in which states vote for momentum.
Important because back in 2008, the news stations would try and be like "OMG! Is Obama starting to lose it?" when he was losing states he never had a chance to win in the first place. I'll give the cycle props this time for often speaking of Romney's inevitability and such, but I just can't stand anybody pretending otherwise. This race should be relegated to the back pages of the A-section of your newspaper, not on the front page when it all has no real effect. Romney is the nominee and people shouldn't be forced to hear over-and-over again about a non-existent race that's only stretching out this long because of proportional delegates and childish Republicans waffling over "true conservative" credentials.
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Old 03-09-2012, 05:15 PM   #303
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Time and time and time again... Mitt Romney is probably the only candidate who can secure a majority victory.

Newt, Santorum, and Paul can all deny Romney of that bid if he can't secure that majority. There's no reason for any of the candidates to drop out, and there's no reason to believe that any single candidate has this in the bag by any means.
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Old 03-09-2012, 05:16 PM   #304
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Do you know his plan for doing so?
You can read his economic plan on his website.
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Old 03-09-2012, 05:46 PM   #305
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You can read his economic plan on his website.
I've done that, I was curious as to what YOU saw in it that gave you confidence in it.

This is a discussion forum, I thought maybe you'd like to discuss...

When I saw his plan I saw platitudes and regurgitated Republican trademarks that have given us major problems in the past.
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Old 03-09-2012, 10:21 PM   #306
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Romney is actually ahead in some of the polls in Alabama and Mississippi, which vote on Tuesday.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:31 AM   #307
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if Gingrich doesn't win anything next week, he'll drop out.
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Old 03-10-2012, 12:08 PM   #308
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if Gingrich doesn't win anything next week, he'll drop out.
If it is Mitt Romney winning everything, maybe. If it is Rick Santorum, Gingrich ain't going anywhere.
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Old 03-10-2012, 12:33 PM   #309
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Recent debate over contraception comes as GOP loses gains among women - The Washington Post
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Old 03-10-2012, 12:46 PM   #310
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in other GOP news, Mitt Romney likes grits
I just read about that. Awkward. He's the master of all things awkward.
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:16 PM   #311
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Is there a reason that Santorum just blew out the other three in Kansas?
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:19 PM   #312
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check out the numbers and stats

Kansas GOP Caucuses - GOP results map - 2012 election - Data Desk - Los Angeles Times


just a few thousand diehards, still Romney beats Gingrich
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:28 PM   #313
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Romney beats Gingrich? Doesn't matter when they both got shat on by Rick Santorum who took 30 delegates.

And a loss for Romney is a win for Gingrich.

Good ol' fashioned ass whooping today.
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:35 PM   #314
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And a loss for Romney is a win for Gingrich.
How do you figure? At this point, I think the only thing that's a win for Gingrich is a win for Gingrich.
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:42 PM   #315
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How do you figure? At this point, I think the only thing that's a win for Gingrich is a win for Gingrich.
I mean I can keep saying it but the more I do the more it's getting ignored.

Neither Gingrich nor Paul (or Santorum, really) stand a chance at winning a majority victory in delegates.

The goal is to get a brokered convention. Romney from here on out is a projected front-runner for a lot of states. The more Romney loses, the less chance he has at capturing a majority in delegates.

You don't think Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich are so stupid as to just hang around in the race despite having zero chance at getting more delegates than Mitt Romney at this point? Hell no. But they can deny Mitt Romney the bid by sticking around.
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Old 03-10-2012, 04:21 PM   #316
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I mean I can keep saying it but the more I do the more it's getting ignored.

Neither Gingrich nor Paul (or Santorum, really) stand a chance at winning a majority victory in delegates.

The goal is to get a brokered convention. Romney from here on out is a projected front-runner for a lot of states. The more Romney loses, the less chance he has at capturing a majority in delegates.

You don't think Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich are so stupid as to just hang around in the race despite having zero chance at getting more delegates than Mitt Romney at this point? Hell no. But they can deny Mitt Romney the bid by sticking around.
I think especially Newt Gingrich is that stupid. Or at least, that irrational. He seems to have this hate/need of some kind of revenge towards Romney. So he's staying in (he indicated he will go to Tampa with his campaign). But by staying in, he will help Romney getting the plurality in delegates.
He and Santorum seem to be splitting the conservative vote, allowing Romney to claim minimal victories. Would Gingrich drop out, then the majority of his 'votes' would then go to Santorum, probably winning states that otherwise would've gone to Romney.
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Old 03-10-2012, 04:46 PM   #317
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Neither Gingrich nor Paul (or Santorum, really) stand a chance at winning a majority victory in delegates.
Right but not even Romney can (taking all into consideration) feasibly get to the required number to get the nomination on the first ballot.

In fact, given the way things are going, there is a 99% chance Romney will not get the 1,144 no matter what happens in each particular state. That is, unless he starts suddenly blowing them out of the water and they drop out (not going to happen).

So the moral to the story is, there will almost certainly be a second ballot at the convention.
And right now the race is to make that particular argument.

As it stands, Romney will end up around 1,000 one way or another.
He will have a substantial argument no matter what, with that many delegates, and is very likely the nominee. Santorum (forget Gingrich) is hoping that he can make his voice heard at the convention with about 400 or so.

And so the dog and pony show over the next three months will continue. And nothing will really matter until the convention. So yeah, Santorum wins Kansas...Big deal. Hell even if he wins California, it wouldn't matter. Hell, even if he loses California, he can still make the same argument. With less credibility? Perhaps but the argument is going to be about Romney not being able to beat Obama.

Have you seen Romney's tax plan? I bet Santorum has.

Anyway, the math doesn't add up. While it is possible, it is almost improbable taken in proper context. Nobody can really win it.
And therefore, it is going to be decided by politicking.
That's not a "brokered convention" AFAIK, that's just the process.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:19 PM   #318
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I think especially Newt Gingrich is that stupid. Or at least, that irrational. He seems to have this hate/need of some kind of revenge towards Romney. So he's staying in (he indicated he will go to Tampa with his campaign). But by staying in, he will help Romney getting the plurality in delegates.
He and Santorum seem to be splitting the conservative vote, allowing Romney to claim minimal victories. Would Gingrich drop out, then the majority of his 'votes' would then go to Santorum, probably winning states that otherwise would've gone to Romney.
I don't think any politician is that stupid (maybe Sarah Palin). Irrational? Definitely. Stupid? No. Luckily, most politicians have someone rationalize these things for them.

I'm not sure if you're a Romney fan or what, but I think that 'hate' you're talking about is actually pretty common -- nobody wants a lying, dishonest, and just downright bad man like Mitt Romney who just tells you what you want to hear to become President.

You've got it all wrong though. Perhaps Gingrich might be stopping Santorum from winner-take-all states like Ohio, but ultimately Gingrich's strong showings in states where Santorum would not do as well (especially in the South) work to stop Mitt Romney much more than if Gingrich were to drop out. And it's not some 'revenge' that Gingrich is after. It's a bid. If this goes to a brokered convention, he wants to come out with the bid just like the other three candidates do. He's not just simply seeking revenge... that's silly. he still has a chance, all four do really.

Gingrich doesn't want Santorum to win, either. He's not doing something 'selfish' by any means. If Gingrich drops, there's a lot of people who think Santorum is insane (rightfully so). If any of the four candidates drop from this point on, the chances at a brokered convention are pretty muchzero. He's doing everyone else a favor by sticking around, including himself.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:34 PM   #319
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Right but not even Romney can (taking all into consideration) feasibly get to the required number to get the nomination on the first ballot.

In fact, given the way things are going, there is a 99% chance Romney will not get the 1,144 no matter what happens in each particular state. That is, unless he starts suddenly blowing them out of the water and they drop out (not going to happen).

So the moral to the story is, there will almost certainly be a second ballot at the convention.
And right now the race is to make that particular argument.

As it stands, Romney will end up around 1,000 one way or another.
He will have a substantial argument no matter what, with that many delegates, and is very likely the nominee. Santorum (forget Gingrich) is hoping that he can make his voice heard at the convention with about 400 or so.

And so the dog and pony show over the next three months will continue. And nothing will really matter until the convention. So yeah, Santorum wins Kansas...Big deal. Hell even if he wins California, it wouldn't matter. Hell, even if he loses California, he can still make the same argument. With less credibility? Perhaps but the argument is going to be about Romney not being able to beat Obama.

Have you seen Romney's tax plan? I bet Santorum has.

Anyway, the math doesn't add up. While it is possible, it is almost improbable taken in proper context. Nobody can really win it.
And therefore, it is going to be decided by politicking.
That's not a "brokered convention" AFAIK, that's just the process.
I'm pretty sure you've got some things backwards here, but I'm no PolySci major so don't quote me.

I'm fairly certain Mitt Romney does in fact have a chance at getting the majority of delegates (and certainly would if Romney dropped out).

Also, you have to think about how if it ends up as a brokered convention, it's almost a free-for-all. All of those states... before the Santorum momentum... when Gingrich was on fire... those who are reconsidering delegates for or against Romney... anyone can win at Tampa if it gets there.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:59 PM   #320
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FWIW, the last brokered convention was the DNC in 1952, where the 2nd place candidate Adlai Stevenson won the bid in a 3rd round of voting.

The point behind this is that while a ton of people might want Mitt Romney, there isn't a majority to say yes to that. However, there very well could be a majority saying no to Mitt Romney. The RNC could choose anyone, really.
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