GOP Nominee 2012 - Who Will It Be?, Pt. 2

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Inner El Guapo said:
The only thing that is phony is pretending it's going to solve everything
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has anyone, anywhere, suggested this? everyone, including and especially the president, has agreed that revenue increases must be coupled with spending cuts, which is exactly what has been proposed. the only people who seem to be inflexible are the GOP -- in their refusal to raise any taxes, anywhere, as well as their refusal to cut defense spending.

while politics is certainly at play for both sides, it's phony, to me, to pretend that there's any sort of equivalence in intransigence and divorce form reality between the two parties.
 
The only people that are inflexible are the GOP?
What does President Obama have to say about that?

Obama's Jobs Speech said:
Now, I realize there are some in my party who don’t think we should make any changes at all to Medicare and Medicaid, and I understand their concerns. But here’s the truth: Millions of Americans rely on Medicare in their retirement. And millions more will do so in the future. They pay for this benefit during their working years. They earn it. But with an aging population and rising health care costs, we are spending too fast to sustain the program. And if we don’t gradually reform the system while protecting current beneficiaries, it won’t be there when future retirees need it. We have to reform Medicare to strengthen it.
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He's not just saying that to give Republicans ammo against Democrats.
He knows there are non-serous Democrats in Congress that (effectively) don't want to cut anything substantial - from where it needs to come from (Medicare and Medicaid).

Obama, to his credit, is attempting to get serious about it.

FTR, I didn't draw any equivalence or at least I didn't want to. I'm just saying that both sides are responsible for the problem. But yeah, one is certainly more egregious with their intransigent Tax Religion.

Let's just wait and see what kind of serious cuts the Democrats come up with on that committee and if they can get them done before the automatic cuts kick in. And hell...maybe it is a case where the Republicans are just stonewalling them no matter what and nothing will get done. Wouldn't surprise anyone of us. So, we shall see.
 
r


Obesity debate rages on talk of Christie White House bid | Reuters

:corn:

this is one to watch, (if you get the jumbo popcorn, you get a free refilll)
 
isn't it less his obesity and more his fairly serious asthma that have put him in the hospital several times?
 
I would think obesity aggravates asthma. I posted something about this in the food police thread. If he was female, forget about it. It'd be over before it started.

And apparently NJ has a higher unemployment rate than the national rate.
 
sounds like even the GOP base is sick of idiot devil clowns from Texas?

Perry Slides in Two New Polls

Published October 04, 2011 | FoxNews.com

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Some not-so-encouraging numbers for Texas Gov. Rick Perry in two new polls -- he has taken a drastic fall in the numbers while businessman Herman Cain gobbles up all that lost support.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll out Tuesday shows businessman Herman Cain has tied Perry for second place behind front-runner Mitt Romney. Romney is at 25 percent while Cain and Perry each get 16 percent.

But the trajectory is an indicator of the men's fortunes. The Texas governor has fallen 13 percentage points since the last poll, while Cain has risen 12 in the last month.

As for the rest of the pack, Texas Rep. Ron Paul reaches double digits with 11 percent, while former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann are holding at 7 percent. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is at 2 percent, while former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is holding at 1 percent.

The telephone poll from Sept. 29-Oct. 2 of 1,002 adults also showed that Perry, who performed poorly in recent debates and whose immigration positions are at odds with most of the GOP base, has seen his support among self-identified Tea Party backers drop from 45 --10 percent in one month -- in September he had a 3 to 1 advantage over any other candidate.

Conservatives who answered the poll also dropped their support for Perry from 39 percent to 19 percent in one month. The Texas governor's debate performances have reverberated on the campaign trail. He's found himself repeatedly answering questions about his support for a policy giving in-state tuition rates to children of illegal immigrants, after being challenged on the debate stage.

Cain, on the other hand, whose strong performance in the debates was followed by a series of big showings in straw polls, has surged from 5 percent to 30 percent among Tea Party backers, taking him to the top of the heap. The charismatic businessman has been pushing his catchy "9-9-9" economic plan, which calls for overhauling the tax code and instituting a 9 percent corporate tax, income tax and national sales tax.

Asked about the poll results, Cain, who appeared on Fox News Tuesday morning, said he hadn't seen the results, but he wasn't totally surprised.

"We hadn't seen that yet, but that is great news. It says that the flavor of the week might have some substance. Black walnut isn't a flavor of the week," said Cain, who was referring to himself, but also his favorite ice cream.

A separate poll out Monday in the state of Florida -- where the turn of fortunes originated following the Fox News/Google debate of Sept. 22 -- also shows a major shift in the balance.

Cain is now running in second place in Florida, surging nearly 19 points since the debate and the Florida Republican Party's Presidency 5 straw poll to 24 percent. Meantime, Perry's support has dropped nearly 16 points to 9 percent, fourth place. Romney's support stays steady, but grew by 3 points to 28 percent.

According to a survey of likely Florida voters conducted by War Room Logistics, a Republican polling firm, and issued by The Miami Herald, Perry had been tied as a Florida front-runner with Romney at about 25 percent on Sept. 20, but now trails Newt Gingrich, who's in the third spot at 10 percent.

According to the poll of 1,331 likely voters taken Sept. 30, Romney remains the best general-election candidate against President Obama. Romney trails Obama 42 percent to 48 percent, the smallest margin for the GOP candidates. Against all the other Republican candidates, Obama earns more than 50 percent.

The War Room Logistics surveys have been unlike any other in Florida because they are based on a sample of likely voters, instead of just registered voters. Around now, it’s more common (and cheaper) to poll registered voters because the campaigns aren’t in full swing and it’s a little tougher to estimate the likely voter population.

However, since the numbers have swung so wildly in just 10 days, it's a safe bet to say this is anyone's game right now.

Read more: Perry Slides In Two New Polls | Fox News
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yolland said:
Santorum said he didn't hear the boos, and James Fallows at The Atlantic reports speaking with an onstage assistant for one of the other candidates who stated they couldn't hear the booing onstage and that the candidate he worked for only realized it had happened while watching the replays afterwards. So it may not be a fair question to ask why none of the candidates responded to the booing.
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So much for that theory...

“I think we can hear the boos. I would tell you that in these debates there’s been a lot of booing and a lot of applause, cheering and booing — some of which I don’t agree with,” Romney said. “Now, I have not made it my practice to scold the audience and say, ‘I disagree with this person, I agree with that person’ because it goes in a lot of different directions. I don’t recall whether this soldier — whether people were booing his question or just…”
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Herman Cain has since apologized for not speaking up when he heard the booing as well.
 
my goodness.

Cainmentum

Is the new Republican frontrunner Herman Cain? Maybe for this week anyway. PPP polled Republican primary voters in three pretty different states over the weekend- North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia- and found Cain leading the way in each of them as Newt Gingrich surged, Mitt Romney stayed steady, and Rick Perry saw a collapse in his support.


Here are the numbers:

North Carolina: Cain 27, Romney/Gingrich 17, Perry 15, Paul/Bachmann 6, Santorum/Huntsman 2

Nebraska: Cain 30, Gingrich 16, Romney 13, Bachmann/Perry 10, Paul 5, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2

West Virginia: Cain 24, Gingrich 18, Romney 16, Perry 15, Bachmann 8, Paul 6, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1

Cain rises to the top

The thing fueling Cain's lead in all of these states is strong support from the furthest right segment of the Republican electorate. Cain is at 35% with 'very conservative' voters and has a 14 point lead over Perry with them in North Carolina. In Nebraska he's at 36% with them, putting him up 22 points over Gingrich and Perry. And in West Virginia he gets 25% with them, giving him a 9 point edge on Gingrich and Perry.

This most conservative group of Republican voters has been shopping for a candidate all year. They've gone from Huckabee to Trump back to Huckabee to Bachmann to Perry and now to Cain. I would expect their support for Cain to be pretty temporary. One thing that's been very clear through all these twists and turns though- they're not going to support Romney.

Whether Cain's surge is fleeting or not this much is true- he's up 18 points compared to a month ago in North Carolina when he was at 9% and he's up 18 points in West Virginia as well where he had previously been at 6%.


Newt surging?

Even more surprising than Cain's leading all three of these polls might be Gingrich's finishing second in each of them...and where his support is coming from. In both Nebraska (21-15 over Cain) and North Carolina (27-18 over Romney) he leads with moderates. Those voters have previously tended to give Romney first place status- it really says something about the state of the Republican field when Newt Gingrich becomes the choice for centrists.

Gingrich has better favorability numbers than front runners Romney and Perry in all three states. In North Carolina he's at +27 (58/31) to +19 for Romney (50/31) and +7 for Perry (44/37). In Nebraska he's at +17 (49/32) to +11 for Romney (45/34) and even for Perry (35/35). And in West Virginia he's at +24 (50/26) to +15 for Romney (42/27) and +13 for Perry (38/25).

This popularity for Gingrich is new found. His net favorability in NC is up 28 points from a month ago when he was actually on negative ground at 42/43. And he's up 19 points in West Virginia from 41/36 in September.

Perry's collapse

We haven't polled Nebraska since January when Perry wasn't really in the picture but we polled both North Carolina and West Virginia last month so it provides a point of easy comparison. Perry's support is down 20 points in North Carolina (from 35% to 15%) and 18 points in West Virginia (from 33% to 15%). He's had similarly catastrophic declines in his favorability numbers. He's dropped a net 37 points in North Carolina from +44 (61/17) to +7 (44/37). And he's declined 30 points in West Virginia from +43 (52/9) to +13 (38/25). Those are some pretty dramatic numbers.

Romney steady

While Cain and Gingrich have seen huge increases in their support and Perry a dramatic decline, Mitt Romney has stayed more or less in place. Last month in North Carolina he was in second place at 12%, now he's tied for second place at 17%. Last month in West Virginia he was in second place at 14%, now he's in third place at 16%. Going all the way back to January when we last polled Nebraska he was in 4th place at 15%, now he's in 3rd place at 13%. Romney's support has been pretty steady all year as folks have risen and fallen around him- the question is just whether that base of support is going to end up being enough to carry him to the nomination.

What about Christie?

We also tested iterations of these polls including Chris Christie- his standing in all three states is solid but not exactly spectacular. In North Carolina he was 2nd at 19%. In Nebraska he was 2nd at 19% as well. And in West Virginia he was 2nd at 17%. Given how desperate Republican voters seem to be for a new face, as evidenced by the constantly shifting poll numbers, I thought Christie would be in first place on these polls. You can argue that he and Cain have received the most 'new' media attention of any of these candidates in the last couple weeks and evidently Cain made a stronger impression on Republican primary voters than Christie. I'm not sure that would have boded particularly well for Christie's prospects further down the line.

Final Thoughts

The Republican race has always been pretty wide open, but never more so than it is now. The fact that Cain and Gingrich, pretty much given up for dead just a few weeks ago, could have this kind of poll surge is really indicative of how weak anyone's support is right now- very few Republican voters are strongly committed to a particular candidate and most of them can shift in a heart beat. I'll be pretty shocked if Cain is still leading our state polls a month from now but if there's any lesson to be learned from the GOP race at this point it's not to be surprised by anything. Two folks these polls are subtly good news for- Perry and Bachmann- because what they show is that just because you decline in the polls doesn't mean you can't come back. You can be the flavor of the week twice.

Cainmentum - Public Policy Polling
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i know, it's early, blah blah blah. and i totally agree with all that.

but from what i've seen of the debates, Romney is clearly the class of the field. he towers above the rest of them.

what does this say about him? why this push for anybody but Romney?
 
I think Perry could be done. He came in and was made Prom Queen,
when he took his dress off, they changed their minds.



this could be fun
if this turns into a two person race between Cain and Romney

we could have the core conservatives, tea party breaking for Cain
and the establishment GOP going for Romney
 
it would be fun if it goes the distance
in 08, we had the good old Dems, mumbling to themselves:
"Woman or Negro?, woman or Negro?"

I'd like to have the good old GOP mumbling:
"Mormon or Negro?, Mormon or Negro?"
 
INDY500 said:
Those Tea Party crazies and their extreme philosophies. Race is incidental to a person's character? Where does an idea like that even come from?
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saying you like Cain absolutely means you are not racist.

if even Tea Partiers like Cain, this proves that the only racism alive in the 21st century is racism against white people who are accused of being racist, i.e., "the race card," which is the most vile kind of racism there is.
 
^ or it's that keeping the blacks down isn't a priority to today's GOP because a new set of priorities have emerged:

1. The GOP cares solely and exclusively about its rich contributors. The party has built a whole catechism on the protection and further enrichment of America's plutocracy. Their caterwauling about deficit and debt is so much eyewash to con the public. Whatever else President Obama has accomplished (and many of his purported accomplishments are highly suspect), his $4-trillion deficit reduction package did perform the useful service of smoking out Republican hypocrisy.
..
2. They worship at the altar of Mars. While the me-too Democrats have set a horrible example of keeping up with the Joneses with respect to waging wars, they can never match GOP stalwarts such as John McCain or Lindsey Graham in their sheer, libidinous enthusiasm for invading other countries.
....
3. Give me that old time religion. Pandering to fundamentalism is a full-time vocation in the GOP. Beginning in the 1970s, religious cranks ceased simply to be a minor public nuisance in this country and grew into the major element of the Republican rank and file
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http://www.truth-out.org/goodbye-all-reflections-gop-operative-who-left-cult/1314907779
 
INDY500 said:
Those Tea Party crazies and their extreme philosophies. Race is incidental to a person's character? Where does an idea like that even come from?
Click to expand...
Irvine511 said:
saying you like Cain absolutely means you are not racist.

if even Tea Partiers like Cain, this proves that the only racism alive in the 21st century is racism against white people who are accused of being racist, i.e., "the race card," which is the most vile kind of racism there is.
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Many black people are homophobic (see about being on the down low) so of course that does not exclude them from also being racist.

Indy barely veils a retreat to his usual "Christian whites are the big victims of 21st century america" angle.
 
Canadiens1131 said:
Many black people are homophobic (see about being on the down low) so of course that does not exclude them from also being racist.
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it also doesn't exclude them from being stupid.

Cain Gay Is A Choice The View - YouTube

“I don’t see how any African-American with any inkling of history can say that you don’t have the right to live your life how you want to live your life. No one should be telling you who you should love, no one should be telling you who you should be spending the rest of your life with. When we start talking about equality and everybody being treated equally, I don’t want to know an African-American who will say everybody doesn’t deserve equality.” -- Michael Irvin

Out Magazine | Slideshows | Michael-Irvin-The-Playmaker-Preaches: Michael Irvin: The Playmaker Preaches
Click to expand...
 
The video won't work for me but Cain said being gay is a choice, I guess. And you thought he only knew about pizza.

It's bizarre to me that the GOP keeps going through this flavor of the month thing. They're supposed to want someone who can beat Obama but do they really just want someone who can beat Romney and that's why they're so confused? It seems to be that if it's beating Obama then Mitt is the obvious choice. But what do I know.
 
He said, "Show me the science," otherwise he's going to continue believing gay is a choice. As if the science isn't already there. As if gay people owe him an explanation as to why they could be so weird.
 
I'm surprised, I would have thought rasmussen could have developed a much bigger lead for republicans than just 6 points. They must be dropping the ball.
 
"Who would you vote for, the current guy or other guy?"

"OTHER GUY!" "OTHER GUY!" "OTHER GUY!"
 
that is all these elections ever come down to, choice Blue kitchen or Red kitchen, in about 5-7 states.

All this talk about individuals beliefs, religion, etc. don't matter

their will only be 2 items on the menu
and you will only be let in to choose at one certain time, so what's sounds good? or least bad?

nothing sounds good? no worries, others will choose for you and you still have to eat it. sure, you can choose something not on the menu, will that make you feel better? you will still end up eating item Blue or Red. and choosing the one you want? no guarantee, they will only be serving the one entre' that wins,

Welcome to the Hell's Kitchen selection process of selecting a President
 
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