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Old 01-04-2011, 10:36 AM   #81
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The unemployment rate did not start to go up until the last 6 months Bush was in office, and it never topped 8%. With Obama, the unemployment rate has topped 8% for all 24 months and 9.4% for 20 of those months including a high of 10.1%. People are not going to be looking at Bush's last 6 months in office on November 2, 2012, they are going to be looking at the past 45 months that Obama was in office. What type of jobs situation did they live under for the past 45 months? Thats going to have a powerful impact on whether or not Obama gets re-elected. The longer the unmployment rate stays above 9%, the chances that Obama will be re-elected steadily decrease.
Unfortunately this is a very uneducated section of the population if they believe numbers like that occur over night and it wasn't the years of policy behind it that caused such dips. But that's just reality, a largely uninformed populace... and a party that caters to them.
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Old 01-04-2011, 10:37 AM   #82
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The hurdle that no one wants to have is Obama's. Its 9.8% unemployment. As long as you can't be tied to that, your in a good position.
Way to dodge my friend
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Old 01-04-2011, 11:48 AM   #83
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Obama does have a grace period, but its not going to last forever. His approval ratings have been as low as 41% over the past few months which is not good regardless of the situation or comparisons to past Presidents. Obama's monthly average on approval will continue to decline the longer the unemployment rate remains so high.




it's getting difficult to discuss with you because you don't seem to have a good grasp of the facts.

here's a site that combines all the polling data:

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

if you'd like to compare him to other presidents, at least in the Gallup Poll, you can look here:

Presidential Job Approval Center



hope that helps!
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Old 01-04-2011, 11:49 AM   #84
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oh my.

it's just dawning on me.

who we are talking to.

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Old 01-04-2011, 12:03 PM   #85
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Alter?
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Old 01-04-2011, 12:11 PM   #86
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Alter?


i'll give you 1441 hints ...
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Old 01-04-2011, 12:19 PM   #87
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It all makes sense now...
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Old 01-04-2011, 12:23 PM   #88
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This is the worse unemployment rate since the 1930s,


the worst. not worse, worst.
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Old 01-04-2011, 02:16 PM   #89
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Whats extraordinarily naive is to think that voters won't care what the economic and job situation was for the past 45 months under Obama on election day. Obama can't run against Bush in 2012. He is going to have to defend his OWN record. He is not going to be able to pass off 9% unemployment in 2012 on someone who has not been President in four years. The unemployment rate is a negative, a big negative, and if Obama cannot sigificantly correct it, he is unlikely to be re-elected.
Incorrect. It only has to be seen as improving. Like I said, most people correctly acknowledge that the recession began before Obama took office. Since then, the stock market has rebounded, the economy has slowly improved. If unemployment is still high, but seen as improving, no matter how slightly, Obama will win. His argument that American should not give the keys back to the people who drove us into the ditch is a good one.

Remember, there is one fact that you're conveniently ignoring here. And it's that Republicans have a far lower approval rating than Obama. Further, Obama's approval rating has endured ridiculously high unemployment for the last year and a half. On August 24, 2009, Obama's approval/disapproval ratings were 50/43. Yesterday, they were 50/43.

No matter which way you look at it, it's going to be extremely difficult to beat Obama. Now, I'll agree with you that unemployment will play a big role here, but only if it's worse or seen as unchanging. But with an improving economy, I think that's pretty unlikely. Of course, anything can happen with the economy.

Bottom line: 10% unemployment. 50% approval. Those numbers should scare the hell out of republicans.
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Old 01-04-2011, 02:26 PM   #90
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i'll give you 1441 hints ...
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It all makes sense now...
I told all of you guys a while back.

WikiLeaks largest classified military leak - Page 27 - U2 Feedback

FTR, there is a clear 'tell'. I won't reveal what it is though.
Might need it again.
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Old 01-04-2011, 02:51 PM   #91
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Who are the GOP?

Did someone mention Tea Parties? Come to mine. I can make you a wide range of different tea's from English Breakfast, Assam, Darjeeling, Earl Grey, Kenyan and naturally caffeine free Redbush tea. I've also got home made rock cakes and chocolate cake. There's battenberg, soft fudge, After Eight chocolates as well as hobnob and creme biscuits.
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Old 01-04-2011, 03:10 PM   #92
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Old 01-04-2011, 03:37 PM   #93
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LPU2, you keep mentioning Obama's nationwide approval numbers, but that number doesn't really matter. The trend is bad news for him, and RCP puts his disapproval number higher than the approval. The election will come down to a number of swing states: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (potentially a GOP pickup), Virginia, and maybe a couple others.

Obama's approval numbers in those states as of August (most recent data I could find):

Ohio
Rasmussen: 53% disapprove (42% "strongly"), 46% approve
PPP: 54% disapprove, 42% approve. Independents disapprove 58-33. Healthcare opposed 53-38.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Economic policies disapprove 54-41. Healthcare opposed 55-36.

Florida
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (44% "strongly"), 41% approve. Healthcare opposed 49 (42% strongly) to 45.
PPP: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Healthcare opposed 47-45.

Pennsylvania
Rasmussen: 54% disapprove (45% "strongly"), 46% approve.
PPP: 50% disapprove, 43% approve. Independents disapprove 61-32. Healthcare opposed 51-40.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 46% approve. Independents disapprove 53-40. Would NOT re-elect Obama 48-42 (51-35 among Independents). Disapprove Obama's economic policies 55-40. Healthcare opposed 54-37.

Virginia
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (40% strongly), 49% approve. Healthcare opposed 56-41.

Those are the numbers that will decide the election, and based on the November elections, I don't think they've changed much since August. If unemployment is 9.5 in the summer of 2012, and closes to 9.3 on election day, that won't save him. And if Romney's the nominee, he'll (Romney) no doubt be going in as the favorite.
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Old 01-04-2011, 04:20 PM   #94
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Those are the numbers that will decide the election, and based on the November elections,

while those numbers are something Obama should want to do something about, voters do not cast votes on approval, but they cast their choice between two candidates. it's a direct comparison between two candidates. all George W. Bush had to do was beat John Kerry, and that's just what he did.

i do think you're right in those states mattering most -- especially Florida.
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Old 01-04-2011, 05:07 PM   #95
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LPU2, you keep mentioning Obama's nationwide approval numbers, but that number doesn't really matter. The trend is bad news for him, and RCP puts his disapproval number higher than the approval. The election will come down to a number of swing states: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (potentially a GOP pickup), Virginia, and maybe a couple others.

Obama's approval numbers in those states as of August (most recent data I could find):

Ohio
Rasmussen: 53% disapprove (42% "strongly"), 46% approve
PPP: 54% disapprove, 42% approve. Independents disapprove 58-33. Healthcare opposed 53-38.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Economic policies disapprove 54-41. Healthcare opposed 55-36.

Florida
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (44% "strongly"), 41% approve. Healthcare opposed 49 (42% strongly) to 45.
PPP: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Healthcare opposed 47-45.

Pennsylvania
Rasmussen: 54% disapprove (45% "strongly"), 46% approve.
PPP: 50% disapprove, 43% approve. Independents disapprove 61-32. Healthcare opposed 51-40.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 46% approve. Independents disapprove 53-40. Would NOT re-elect Obama 48-42 (51-35 among Independents). Disapprove Obama's economic policies 55-40. Healthcare opposed 54-37.

Virginia
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (40% strongly), 49% approve. Healthcare opposed 56-41.

Those are the numbers that will decide the election, and based on the November elections, I don't think they've changed much since August. If unemployment is 9.5 in the summer of 2012, and closes to 9.3 on election day, that won't save him. And if Romney's the nominee, he'll (Romney) no doubt be going in as the favorite.
Of the states you list, Ohio and Florida both have conducted recent matchup polls. In those polls Obama beats every single one of your candidates head to head. This despite 10% unemployment. Because my central point is that Obama's approval is only going to improve when the economy does.

Both Reagan and Clinton's numbers were lower than Obama's are now. Yet both were re-elected in near-landslides.

I doubt the republican party shares your optimism.
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Old 01-04-2011, 07:06 PM   #96
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The only difference is perception. It's perceived that Obama is struggling more than he is. That's what concerns me.
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Old 01-04-2011, 07:10 PM   #97
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oh my.

it's just dawning on me.

who we are talking to.

This post sold it for me.
Quote:
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Whats extraordinarily naive is to think that voters won't care what the economic and job situation was for the past 45 months under Obama on election day. Obama can't run against Bush in 2012. He is going to have to defend his OWN record. He is not going to be able to pass off 9% unemployment in 2012 on someone who has not been President in four years. The unemployment rate is a negative, a big negative, and if Obama cannot sigificantly correct it, he is unlikely to be re-elected.
 
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Old 01-04-2011, 07:42 PM   #98
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i do think you're right in those states mattering most -- especially Florida.
What bothers me is that I don't seem to hear these types of acknowledgements coming from the conservative posters here. I respect it when someone can acknowledge when an opponent has a point; it tells me that person is really thinking.

Or is just because the conservative posters are always. . .well. . .Right?

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Old 01-04-2011, 09:02 PM   #99
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Old 01-05-2011, 08:27 AM   #100
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New Zogby numbers out yesterday:

Christie 43, Obama 40
Obama 41, Romney 41
Obama 42, Huckabee 39
Obama 41, Pawlenty 38
Obama 40, Daniels 36
Obama 45, Palin 38
Obama 42, Thune 35

Large percentages of "neither"s and "not sure"s included.
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