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Old 12-31-2010, 03:32 PM   #21
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Noooo problemo! John Boehner will get everyone JOBS like he promised during the election.
It does help Obama that the Republicans now have control of the house in terms of the distribution of blame. But Obama is still President and his party has the Senate. Most people are going to take their frustrations out on the President in 2012 if things don't start to change soon.

Also, even if the economy starts to improve at a rate favorable to Obama, there is the threat of record gas prices according to some industry experts, $5 dollar gasoline possible in the USA, just before the election if the global economy starts to rapidly improve.
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Old 12-31-2010, 06:03 PM   #22
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I like Senator Jim Demit of South Carolina.

He's one of the only Republicans I know of that
is close to Libertarian principles of government.

The last time I heard him speak, he said he was not
running for President.

I guess that could change.

This will an interesting race to watch.
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Old 12-31-2010, 07:22 PM   #23
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It does help Obama that the Republicans now have control of the house in terms of the distribution of blame. But Obama is still President and his party has the Senate. Most people are going to take their frustrations out on the President in 2012 if things don't start to change soon.

Also, even if the economy starts to improve at a rate favorable to Obama, there is the threat of record gas prices according to some industry experts, $5 dollar gasoline possible in the USA, just before the election if the global economy starts to rapidly improve.
Eh. . .maybe.

If this is really how the American electorate is going to approach the election (and I'm afraid you are right), it demonstrates a really shallow approach to the nations problems.
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Old 01-01-2011, 06:25 AM   #24
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I think the top 3 potential nominees are:

1. Jeb Bush (If he wants to. He has the best chance to beat Obama. Would draw independents, too.)
2. Rick Perry (What's not to like about him if you are a Republican?)
3. Mitt Romney (He's got the name recognition and some momentum, and I think a number independents like him.)

No way Palin gets the nomination (fortunately or unfortunately depending on your stance).
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Old 01-01-2011, 09:11 AM   #25
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A month or two ago I saw polls showing that Romney was ahead in two out of the three states of IA, NH and SC. After that comes MI I believe, where I have to believe he would win with his family ties. If those polls hold for the next year, he'd be in business at that point.

I don't believe a number of people being talked about will end up running. At this point I think Romney and Gingrich are sure things. But right now I'm of the opinion Palin won't, Bush won't, Jindal won't, Perry won't, Demint won't, and the last I heard from Huckabee is that he is leaning slightly against running at this point. I also don't see Pawlenty getting much traction. I like him and he's a smart guy, but unfortunately nowadays you need charisma, and he's somewhat lacking there. Christie will be interesting to watch. There might be a big push in the GOP to persuade him to run. I think he, and only he, could really challenge Romney for it. I could be wrong.
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Old 01-01-2011, 11:36 AM   #26
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the GOP is usually about who's "turn" it is, or who's "earned" it.

though Palin could make some people uncomfortable, she'll have to battle Huck for the insane vote, and the GOP did go for McCain in 2008 thinking that he was actually electable because of his history of being a moderate. (how you like Grandpa Walnuts now?)

for 2012, unless a dark horse distinguishes himself -- unlikely in GOP history, this is a party that listens and obeys orders from the top -- it's Romney.

looking forward to more Mittens!
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Old 01-01-2011, 11:40 AM   #27
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Christie will be interesting to watch. There might be a big push in the GOP to persuade him to run. I think he, and only he, could really challenge Romney for it. I could be wrong.

on paper, i agree with you. his "no, you can't build the tunnel, i don't have the money" attitude does speak to people who are freaked out about deficits in both parties, but after watching him on 60 Minutes, i think he might be a bit too ... "regional." he comes across a bit of of Central Casting as Jersey stereotypes go, something of a Sopranos character. for me, that's fine -- but i can't see him playing in the South, and the GOP continues to Dixie-fy.
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Old 01-01-2011, 12:02 PM   #28
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I like Senator Jim Demit of South Carolina.
Ah yes, Jim Demint of the "gays and lesbians should not be permitted to teach in our schools" fame.
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Old 01-01-2011, 01:24 PM   #29
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the GOP is usually about who's "turn" it is, or who's "earned" it.
that is mostly true. Especially in 80, 88, and 96.
But I don't know how that theory holds up for 2000.
W certainly had not earned it.

I know it was not you. But anyone that mentioned Bloomberg, he has absolutely zero shot as the GOP nom. Giuliani could not get any traction and he had 911 at his back.

The GOP base has no use for Jews, that is American Jews.
Jews in Israel?, that is a good thing - for the second coming of Jesus.
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Old 01-01-2011, 07:01 PM   #30
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Given the state of the US economy (and I think the smart Republicans would know it isn't Obama's doing, not even Bush's, really), why anyone would want to seize the office of President is beyond me. It's not that highly paid. What are they going to promise, free icecream for everyone?
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Old 01-01-2011, 07:58 PM   #31
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What are they going to promise, free icecream for everyone?

that's essentially what George W. Bush did in 2000. his grand vision for the future of the most powerful nation in history was a tax cut for the wealthy.

pretty much the same thing as free ice cream.
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Old 01-01-2011, 09:01 PM   #32
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A month or two ago I saw polls showing that Romney was ahead in two out of the three states of IA, NH and SC. After that comes MI I believe, where I have to believe he would win with his family ties. If those polls hold for the next year, he'd be in business at that point.

I don't believe a number of people being talked about will end up running. At this point I think Romney and Gingrich are sure things. But right now I'm of the opinion Palin won't, Bush won't, Jindal won't, Perry won't, Demint won't, and the last I heard from Huckabee is that he is leaning slightly against running at this point. I also don't see Pawlenty getting much traction. I like him and he's a smart guy, but unfortunately nowadays you need charisma, and he's somewhat lacking there. Christie will be interesting to watch. There might be a big push in the GOP to persuade him to run. I think he, and only he, could really challenge Romney for it. I could be wrong.
I'm curious as to who you'd like to see be the nominee. Do you personally like Romney the best or do you think he's just the most likely to win the nomination? Do you think he's also the most likely to beat Obama?

I ask all this because for us liberals this just a parlor game--this isn't about who we "like best";after all we don't actually want any Republican beating Obama--but I'd be interested in hearing a conservative's perspective on who they think would be the best candidate.
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Old 01-01-2011, 11:11 PM   #33
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Given the state of the US economy (and I think the smart Republicans would know it isn't Obama's doing, not even Bush's, really), why anyone would want to seize the office of President is beyond me. It's not that highly paid. What are they going to promise, free icecream for everyone?
Well, think of it in the context of being a politician already. All of these people are making less money as senators/congressmen/governors than they would as president, and they have less power and recognition. And they care just as much about power as they do about money.

It's not like Donald Trump is running for president, these are politicians already. They're applying for job promotions.
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Old 01-02-2011, 03:31 AM   #34
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Ah yes, Jim Demint of the "gays and lesbians should not be permitted to teach in our schools" fame.
Which fits so well with the "libertarian, small government" mindset, too, natch.

Man. I honestly don't know who would be the nominee in 2012. Dark horses can be unlikely, but hell, who knows anymore, politics can surprise people sometimes. I agree that it wouldn't surprise me if Romney got the nomination, he's got that proper politician package to him, but there's definitely some things he'd have to shake off, namely the Mormon thing.

How they'll run is what I'm most interested in. If Obama manages to do a lot more great things, and employment starts to improve again, and all that, then the Republican nominee's going to have to really focus on a strong platform to combat him, and in that case I'm not sure who could fit that bill. It'd have to be a more moderate Republican, one that could find a way to appeal to people outside the conservative base.

If things stay as they are now, though, then the Republican's likely going to go on the "I can do better" mixed with fear and scare tactics route that many are going now. How well that'll work, I don't know. I'd like to think people would get sick of it by then, but some have fallen for such moves thus far, so... In that instance, I could easily see Romney, or perhaps Jeb, even (though he'd have to try and get rid of the spector of Dubya's presidency), or definitely Rick Perry or somebody of that sort.

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Old 01-02-2011, 07:20 AM   #35
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the only thing that stands between Obama and a smashing re-election is the employment rate, barring any unforeseen catastrophe.

and that's a big thing, no doubt. i am betting the smarter Republicans are going to hold off until 2016.
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Old 01-02-2011, 07:53 AM   #36
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Cantor/Rubio ticket?
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Old 01-02-2011, 08:03 AM   #37
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the only thing that stands between Obama and a smashing re-election is the employment rate, barring any unforeseen catastrophe.

and that's a big thing, no doubt. i am betting the smarter Republicans are going to hold off until 2016.
Totally agree.

And, the economy and the unemployment rate won't matter until September/October 2012. The U.S. population's short attention span means that people simply assess how they are doing at the time that they need to decide on a candidate.

Like you said, barring anything unforeseen, the recovery of our economy will work in Obama's favor. The positive trends will be seen favorably by anyone with a slightly longer attention span than average.

The potential Republican candidates have very little to offer as far as recent achievements go (like Romney, Huckabee, Palin, and Gingrich). Any current/recent governor that decides to run really only has the "it could have been worse under me" excuse to use.
Honestly, I think Republican Senators and Congresspeople could have the best chance for the nomination based on their recent votes. But, would those votes/achievements attract enough independents to win the presidency?
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Old 01-02-2011, 11:45 AM   #38
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I'm curious as to who you'd like to see be the nominee. Do you personally like Romney the best or do you think he's just the most likely to win the nomination? Do you think he's also the most likely to beat Obama?
I certainly don't have a clear favorite yet. That'll come after listening to them and watching the debates and all. Though right now I do like Romney best, especially in this economic environment, and most polls show he is indeed the best chance of beating Obama.

I've never been crazy about Huckabee, but he's running well against Obama too.

No doubt Gingrich is very smart, though everyone seems to be saying he's unelectable with his personal baggage. I'm torn on that opinion, so he falls somewhere in the middle.

I like Palin a lot personally, but there's just no shot of her winning the general.

From what I've seen of Tim Pawlenty, he seems quite smart and I don't think he should be underestimated. Not the most charismatic or naturally appealing guy, but if he impresses in the debates he could jump right up there with Romney for me.

Ambassador Bolton has mentioned a number of times that he's thinking seriously about it. He would be an interesting candidate, and almost certainly the most experienced of the potential candidates, and worth doing a little research on.

I really think Christie is the wild card. If he doesn't run, I think Romney's got a good shot. If he does get persuaded, I really believe he becomes a bigger factor than even Palin.

Should Obama win in 2012, the crop for 2016 include a handful of really appealing people IMO, including Christie, Rubio, Haley in SC, maybe Kasich, all possibly VPs this election.
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Old 01-02-2011, 03:00 PM   #39
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I think Palin is going to be a lot tougher to beat than people wishfully think. She has an incredible swell of unbelievably enthusiastic people. She'll raise millions of dollars and be on the news every night.

That said, candidates like Palin, Gingrich, Romney, Huckabee, etc don't stand a chance against Obama. The only ones who can beat Obama are those who are seen as sort of newcomers, someone not part of the Fox/GOP punditocracy...someone like Thune, Daniels, Pence...
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Old 01-02-2011, 03:46 PM   #40
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That said, candidates like Palin, Gingrich, Romney, Huckabee, etc don't stand a chance against Obama.
What makes you so sure? For Palin and Newt you're probably right, but Romney? Seems like a smart, successful businessman former governor moderate Republican in the midst of 9-something unemployment would do well. How can you say that with a number of polls showing him beating Obama?
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