Global Pandemic Part IV: IV Experimental Cocktails

[Jerry Dunk]

Good news is that Israel has shown the rna vaccines provide great blockage against the B117 variant. If that one is the primary here in another month than our vaccination efforts will produce good results.

What we don’t know are the SA and Brazil variants and how much they knock down protection. Boosters will be needed regardless but not sure that’s something to be knocked out immediately. There’s also the ones we have no idea about since we let this thing wash over us and gave it plenty of opportunity to rapidly mutate.

Has anyone seen any data on projected immunity from the vaccines ? CDC says if it’s been longer than 3 months since 2nd shot and you’re exposed that you should quarantine out of precaution.

I have some friends in government positions who are privy to some of this data, and the limited information I have heard has been "the early data suggests it's probably at least 1-2 years, but we don't have anywhere near enough data to say that definitively."

The main long-term issues are going to be the large numbers of people refusing to take it, and the limited interest by pharma companies and rich nations in getting the vaccines to poorer nations.

 

[Jerry Dunk]

That's more due to a lack of information than anything we actually know. The CDC gave the same 3 month window for traditionally acquired immunity, only for studies to reveal that people still have antibody titers nearly a year later. Apparently, the strength of vaccine-based immunity is even more robust due to its special targeting of the spike protein via polyclonal antibodies, so I would guess many will still have antibodies before a yearly booster would be required. What we don't know as well as we should is the role of t-cells in long-term immunity.

Please read this thread from one of Moderna's molecular biologists, especially starting around 6 tweets down:

[TWEET]1360921383711215618[/TWEET]

The mRNA are particularly useful for the variants. Those being the first developed vaccines will be an aid in combatting that.

The upcoming single shot vaccines that are not mRNAs will not be as helpful with this, but they will be good for distributing out to more remote communities, as they'll last longer in regular refrigeration and obviously don't require as much administrative structure since you don't need to schedule two appointments.

 

[LemonMelon]

The mRNA are particularly useful for the variants. Those being the first developed vaccines will be an aid in combatting that.

The upcoming single shot vaccines that are not mRNAs will not be as helpful with this, but they will be good for distributing out to more remote communities, as they'll last longer in regular refrigeration and obviously don't require as much administrative structure since you don't need to schedule two appointments.

The J&J vaccine will be ideal for hospitals in rural communities with less sophisticated refrigeration systems. Hopefully there will be fewer variants circulating in these more remote/less populated communities. With fewer cases overall, there will be fewer opportunities for mutation. Plus, these states tend to bring in less international travel.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I hope Biden is right about this. Weather is not helping these days, once Winter is over that will help too.


Before I took office, I set a big goal of administering 100 million shots in the first 100 days," Biden tweeted Tuesday. "With the progress we’re making I believe we’ll not only reach that, we’ll break it."

 

[Jerry Dunk]

You have to think there are a whole lot of vaccines getting thrown out in Texas this week.

 

[Hewson]

You have to think there are a whole lot of vaccines getting thrown out in Texas this week.

They can just leave them outside in the sub arctic temps we're being led to believe they are suffering through.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

You have to think there are a whole lot of vaccines getting thrown out in Texas this week.

I did see one news story about students at Rice University receiving an alert that a nearby medical facility needed to distribute vaccines they had before they went bad.

The university is within walking distance, so the students lined up outside and received the vaccines. That's a good thing to do, hopefully other places did similar things.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

They may not be able to vaccinate people in texas, but the past few weeks has also probably limited the ability for a state who hasn't taken this seriously to spread the virus. The cold finally forced everyone to stay home.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Just surpassed half a million deaths in the US. What a horrible tragedy

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/fu...nsmission-protect-spread-virus-moderna-pfizer

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Johnson & Johnson single shot vaccine passed the FDA and may be approved for use by this weekend.

Let's gooooooooooo

 

[BEAL]

https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1364703838100316162?s=21

The messaging around the vaccines should be it’ll keep you from getting severely sick or dead.

Doesn’t matter which one you take.

Add that a 30 day window is necessary to achieve these results. So don’t go doing jello body shots the night of first (or only) dose

 

[anitram]

Vaccine messaging has been really horrific in a lot of places.

Yes, we get why even though once you yourself are vaccinated, you have to still keep wearing a mask, distance, etc. because it will take some time until we have herd immunity and we have to accept that we live in a global society which also means that until we're all vaccinated (to at least herd immunity status, whatever that % may be), we can't just go on business as usual. This thing doesn't respect borders. BUT the way this message is being delivered by a lot of public health/media people is almost as if, you can get vaccinated but NOTHING CHANGES. Hello?? Way to sell mass vaccination.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The messaging should be "hey asshole, want things to be back to normal? Get a shot, dicks"

 

[LuckyNumber7]

The messaging should be "hey asshole, want things to be back to normal? Get a shot, dicks"

This. Public permit by vaccination. Same way we do kids in school. No shots no school no kidding. No shots no bar no kidding. No shots no concert no kidding. No shots no sports no kidding. You name it.

 

[Irvine511]

This. Public permit by vaccination. Same way we do kids in school. No shots no school no kidding. No shots no bar no kidding. No shots no concert no kidding. No shots no sports no kidding. You name it.

Was just thinking how Vax Cards are going to be the new IDs.

 

[LemonMelon]

I'm eligible on Monday. I was going to wait and see if my school would locate their own doses, but they're itching to reopen and if they fuck around and send us back after one dose, I'm going to regret the time I wasted.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Vaccine messaging has been really horrific in a lot of places.

Yes, we get why even though once you yourself are vaccinated, you have to still keep wearing a mask, distance, etc. because it will take some time until we have herd immunity and we have to accept that we live in a global society which also means that until we're all vaccinated (to at least herd immunity status, whatever that % may be), we can't just go on business as usual. This thing doesn't respect borders. BUT the way this message is being delivered by a lot of public health/media people is almost as if, you can get vaccinated but NOTHING CHANGES. Hello?? Way to sell mass vaccination.

I agree, and that includes Dr. Fauci. He wouldn't say that fully vaccinated seniors could hug their grandchildren. Neither will doctors in the media.

Some sports venues are opening up now (reduced capacity) that weren't open before, ex NYC. If you have to be fully vaccinated to attend, that is a motivator. Of course the problem is the general population that has to wait who knows how long. One theory is to give gen pop the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, and high risk and seniors the others.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

This. Public permit by vaccination. Same way we do kids in school. No shots no school no kidding. No shots no bar no kidding. No shots no concert no kidding. No shots no sports no kidding. You name it.

Well schools are going to bed another story until the vaccine is tested on children... but with the data in how little it impacts kids, if the teachers are all vaccinated there should be minimal issues.

There are already minimal issues in the schools that have opened... alas.

Many arenas/stadiums are preparing to use CLEAR as a way to fast track vaccinates people into buildings. The technology already exists at many buildings - it's merely a matter of the member attaching their medical info to their account.

Anyone who isn't vaccinated will be subject to testing.

All of this, of course, could change as numbers continue to plummet. But that is the tentative plan for the fall (and maybe earlier).

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I agree, and that includes Dr. Fauci. He wouldn't say that fully vaccinated seniors could hug their grandchildren. Neither will doctors in the media.

Some sports venues are opening up now (reduced capacity) that weren't open before, ex NYC. If you have to be fully vaccinated to attend, that is a motivator. Of course the problem is the general population that has to wait who knows how long. One theory is to give gen pop the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, and high risk and seniors the others.

They should not be encouraging or discouraging any hugging. I’m not sure that’s good messaging one way or another. Still need full confidence on transmissivity of the virus via vaccinated people.

 

[anitram]

This. Public permit by vaccination. Same way we do kids in school. No shots no school no kidding. No shots no bar no kidding. No shots no concert no kidding. No shots no sports no kidding. You name it.

This makes sense except that I don't think you can do it until a substantial % are vaccinated. Otherwise you're creating havoc where you have two classes of citizens - vaccinated and unvaccinated and the majority of the second group may be people who WANT to be vaccinated but the rollout is bad, hasn't gotten to them, etc.

 

[anitram]

Still need full confidence on transmissivity of the virus via vaccinated people.

I see this bandied about a lot, but with what other vaccine do we see significant transmissivity by vaccinated people?

 

[Jerry Dunk]

The messaging is impossible to manage because you need one central authority (the federal government) running things, and while they're improving some aspects of the rollout, they're not interested in doing it. Their lobbied interests in healthcare/pharma do not want the federal government to successfully run this and show what single-payer healthcare could look like, so they've demanded that they be put in charge. Which means the feds are mostly just directing things behind the scenes, letting the individual states and companies essentially compete for the rollout and cause chaos. There's no hope in that part of it improving. The only thing that can improve at this point is more availability of the vaccines.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

DC botched the online rollout for the next phase of vaccines today... then pulled a Ted Cruz, lied and blamed someone else... and at the same time the school chancellor was tweeting about how they'll still be doing virtual school in the fall.

If these boneheads are going to remain in charge then perhaps this whole statehood thing isn't such a hot idea after all.

 

[BEAL]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/24/politics/arizona-voting-bills/index.html

It’s not surprising but it’s still shocking how badly they will cheat.

 (CNN)Arizona lawmakers are debating a new set of voting bills -- including one that would allow lawmakers to review election results "if needed" and would grant the legislature the power to pick the state's presidential electors -- as Republican lawmakers around the country work to change election laws in the wake of the 2020 election.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

This makes sense except that I don't think you can do it until a substantial % are vaccinated. Otherwise you're creating havoc where you have two classes of citizens - vaccinated and unvaccinated and the majority of the second group may be people who WANT to be vaccinated but the rollout is bad, hasn't gotten to them, etc.

Agreed entirely. This can only be once a certain amount of time has passed with general population availability, where the vaccine is widely available. But it’s the best way to get society safety but fully functioning. You could also consider a negative test within 72 hours to be a valid permission slip in the meantime?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I see this bandied about a lot, but with what other vaccine do we see significant transmissivity by vaccinated people?

I’m not a subject matter expert by any means, so this is hearsay on my behalf, but I would assume it’s not likely to be an issue, but the stakes are also so much higher. Unstoppable force meets immovable object, so study more.

 

[anitram]

Agreed entirely. This can only be once a certain amount of time has passed with general population availability, where the vaccine is widely available. But it’s the best way to get society safety but fully functioning. You could also consider a negative test within 72 hours to be a valid permission slip in the meantime?

Also related to that is the question of whether to consider natural immunity (i.e. antigen testing).

Early in the pandemic there was a lot of talk about "immunity passports" that would be given to individuals with natural immunity due to having had COVID. This was before we thought vaccines would come quickly. The idea was fairly DOA because one implication was that an immunity passport would perversely function as an incentive to go get COVID.

 

[LJT]

I see this bandied about a lot, but with what other vaccine do we see significant transmissivity by vaccinated people?

This is something that is always filed under maybe with the flu vaccine, in that it 'may' prevent transmission to unvaccinated vulnerable people, but there isn't great data on that, that I can find.

Part of that is of course, we don't screen all staff every week looking for flu.

Its a question that falls in with how infectious are truly asymptomatic people, its a hard one to answer but it does seem to be way less than symptomatic people and was way overestimated at the beginning .

Might have a few more answers when they complete the trial on deliberately infecting 90 odd people in the summer.

But we will get to a point eventually when a sizeable majority is vaccinated where even a positive test is not going to mean much other than for mutation surveillance.

Anecdotally 3-4 weeks post staff at my hospital receiving our first jab we are down to 0 symptomatic staff and asymptomatic cases have also dropped off a cliff, the line is almost perpendicular to the x axis 4 weeks post jabs being done. Considering during that time we have had our biggest ever outbreak of covid on the wards amongst patients, that appears to me minus any stringent analysis pretty good efficacy after one shot.

 

[anitram]

This is something that is always filed under maybe with the flu vaccine, in that it 'may' prevent transmission to unvaccinated vulnerable people, but there isn't great data on that, that I can find.

The flu shot is not a good comparison though, because it's built on past major strains + strains predicted by mathematical modelling. It's never been a particularly effective vaccine in the sense that your typical childhood illness vaccines are.

My feeling is that this talk of vaccinated people walking around infecting others is mostly fearmongering.