Global Pandemic Part III: A typical Spring, Just Ask China

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Maybe someone can answer this for me: why are the estimates on asymptomatic cases so wildly disparate? This seems like a really important stat to know in terms of infection risk. Shouldn't a randomized sample be able to give a decently clear sense of that?

Because there are a lot of variables that cause that range to be significant.

It would be highly dependent on the "randomized" population which is a hard thing to control for. First, because it depends on whom you are infecting - if you are an asymptomatic relatively young person employed in a long-term care facility, it's a good bet that most of the people you infect will subsequently be symptomatic. Whereas maybe a 20-year-old warehouse employee who has 4 other healthy young, roommates may primarily infect those who would not be symptomatic. We also don't really fully understand the viral load but there is evidence that those exposed to a high viral load tend to get very ill - so likely there is a range of viral load from asymptomatic to somebody needing a ventilator. If you are infected and your viral load is high, the % of people that you infect who will be symptomatic will then be that much higher than average.
 
I saw a guy on the news yesterday who was at one of those crowded events over the holiday weekend, in one of the Southern states. A reporter asked him why he wasn't wearing a mask, and he said that Trump doesn't wear one so he's not going to.

Horrifying level of idolatry and lack of critical thinking. It boggles the mind. People were waving massive Trump flags while not distancing or wearing masks.

Congrats Donnie, you're such a leader by example.
 
Brit Hume from Fox News actually tweeted this picture of Joe Biden in a mask at the Korean War memorial yesterday and said it might help explain why Trump doesn't want to wear a mask in public. Trump retweeted it. They're both juvenile idiots, obviously.

EY5XtvBWkAEdxm3.jpeg

This guy's tweet to Hume belongs in a Twitter hall of fame

Jeff Tiedrich
@itsJeffTiedrich

May 25
Replying to
@brithume


Biden is a badass. the president is a hopped-up-on-drugs bloated creampuff with dainty baby hands dangling from his withered t-rex arms, teetering on 3" lifts in his shoes and a girdle that makes him pitch forward like he's about to face-plant. but whatever you say, Brit.
 
Lots of reporting that the Trump camp is freaking out about the polling both for the presidency and the Senate. Like, it could be a 350-400 EC wipeout if this continues.

Hold the line. Get in line. Find the Trump supporters you know and do what you can to persuade them. Be calm but clear.

Trumpism must be destroyed and sent into the gutter of history. That’s what matters right now. Even if you live in a place, like I do, that will go 90%+ for Biden, add your vote to that column. The victory must be overwhelming, so we can bury Trumpism.
 
Brit Hume from Fox News actually tweeted this picture of Joe Biden in a mask at the Korean War memorial yesterday and said it might help explain why Trump doesn't want to wear a mask in public. Trump retweeted it. They're both juvenile idiots, obviously.

View attachment 12509

This guy's tweet to Hume belongs in a Twitter hall of fame

Jeff Tiedrich
@itsJeffTiedrich

May 25
Replying to
@brithume


Biden is a badass. the president is a hopped-up-on-drugs bloated creampuff with dainty baby hands dangling from his withered t-rex arms, teetering on 3" lifts in his shoes and a girdle that makes him pitch forward like he's about to face-plant. but whatever you say, Brit.

Good on Biden for trolling

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1265402406658957312
 
Lots of reporting that the Trump camp is freaking out about the polling both for the presidency and the Senate. Like, it could be a 350-400 EC wipeout if this continues.

Hold the line. Get in line. Find the Trump supporters you know and do what you can to persuade them. Be calm but clear.

Trumpism must be destroyed and sent into the gutter of history. That’s what matters right now. Even if you live in a place, like I do, that will go 90%+ for Biden, add your vote to that column. The victory must be overwhelming, so we can bury Trumpism.
Can this include putting Brad Parscale in stocks on the Mall so we can all throw rotten produce at him?
 

Yes that's a good one. So depressing that we have a "President" who makes fun of someone wearing a mask and questions why he's wearing one.

And Brit Hume is pathetic

Btw when Melania was with Trump at a ceremony Monday she wasn't wearing one either. Even though she has posted that wearing them is important. It was outside, that was Trump's justification this time.
 
Of course.
tenor.gif
 
Is there any recent news about a potential vaccine or treatment? Looking for some positive info today (though aware I might come up empty).
 
Oh, lord, please let it be a wipeout. They deserve to experience the most humiliating defeat imaginable.

It's also a hell of a lot harder to argue voter fraud when the other guy wins 400+ electoral votes.

Of course Trump isn't above that but some of the Republicans will be willing to stop carrying water for him at that point.
 
Is there any recent news about a potential vaccine or treatment? Looking for some positive info today (though aware I might come up empty).

There have been positive steps recently in vaccine development, but still many months away from one being ready to administer in the best case scenario.
 
Is there any recent news about a potential vaccine or treatment? Looking for some positive info today (though aware I might come up empty).
The Moderna vaccine coming out of Texas already pulled up really good results on human subjects. They're onto the next phase of human trials and expect full results to come in by the fall. Oxford has a vaccine that has moved on to human trials as well, with a possibly quicker time frame.

There are like a dozen major candidates out there. Lots of possibilities and we may end up with more than one, which would not be a bad thing. Billions have already been pledged to vaccine manufacturing and shipment, so if anything works, it's not like some tiny operation will be trying to push out 300,000,000 doses by themselves.
 
There are like a dozen major candidates out there. Lots of possibilities and we may end up with more than one, which would not be a bad thing. Billions have already been pledged to vaccine manufacturing and shipment, so if anything works, it's not like some tiny operation will be trying to push out 300,000,000 doses by themselves.

The single most important thing aside from the obvious (efficacy) will be the mode of delivery. We really need to hope that at least one of the workable ones is an aerosol-based vaccine because if they are all available only in injectable form, this will be a major issue in delivery. In a public health context, allowing 5 mins per vaccine is considered to be about right, and while you can maybe cut down on some of that by having people fill out their consent forms earlier, the nurse still has to ask a number of questions (don't want to administer to anyone sick at the time, allergies, etc), then has to administer the vaccine and record the lot # for that particular individual. So imagine if we can be super productive and get it down to 3 minutes, you're talking about one nurse vaccinating 20 people an hour. If she works an 8 hour day with zero breaks for lunch, washroom, etc that gets us to 160. It's a total logistical nightmare.

You'd have to get a bunch of non-nurses to do it. It's not that hard - because of a medical condition I had to do intramuscular shots during my pregnancies on a daily basis and it takes a couple of tries before you get confident. But still, where will you find all these people?
 
The single most important thing aside from the obvious (efficacy) will be the mode of delivery. We really need to hope that at least one of the workable ones is an aerosol-based vaccine because if they are all available only in injectable form, this will be a major issue in delivery. In a public health context, allowing 5 mins per vaccine is considered to be about right, and while you can maybe cut down on some of that by having people fill out their consent forms earlier, the nurse still has to ask a number of questions (don't want to administer to anyone sick at the time, allergies, etc), then has to administer the vaccine and record the lot # for that particular individual. So imagine if we can be super productive and get it down to 3 minutes, you're talking about one nurse vaccinating 20 people an hour. If she works an 8 hour day with zero breaks for lunch, washroom, etc that gets us to 160. It's a total logistical nightmare.

You'd have to get a bunch of non-nurses to do it. It's not that hard - because of a medical condition I had to do intramuscular shots during my pregnancies on a daily basis and it takes a couple of tries before you get confident. But still, where will you find all these people?
This is the only candidate I've seen with an aerosol form:

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/canada-covid-19-vaccine-development/

Vaxart is putting a tablet candidate through trials:

https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/vaxart-covid-19-oral-vaccine
 
Did you see how the CEO of Merck said that Merck cannot deliver a vaccine in 2020?

Makes me a bit nervous about the smaller guys getting it done + producing enough this year.
 
Lots of reporting that the Trump camp is freaking out about the polling both for the presidency and the Senate. Like, it could be a 350-400 EC wipeout if this continues.

Hold the line. Get in line. Find the Trump supporters you know and do what you can to persuade them. Be calm but clear.

Trumpism must be destroyed and sent into the gutter of history. That’s what matters right now. Even if you live in a place, like I do, that will go 90%+ for Biden, add your vote to that column. The victory must be overwhelming, so we can bury Trumpism.
:pray::pray::pray::pray::pray:
Absolutely!!!!! :angry: :sad:

Oh, lord, please let it be a wipeout. They deserve to experience the most humiliating defeat imaginable.
THIS!!!

It's also a hell of a lot harder to argue voter fraud when the other guy wins 400+ electoral votes.

Of course Trump isn't above that but some of the Republicans will be willing to stop carrying water for him at that point.
And THIS!!!!!

On a day like this 100,000 USA's covid19 deaths (plus so many sick) adding Mr Floyd's death by police it's like

"ENOUGH!!!!!" :scream:

(there have been are other days like this, but this has got to be one of the worst one)

And RIP Larry Kramer :(
 
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I just love stories like this

103-year-old Massachusetts woman beats coronavirus, celebrates with Bud Light

DONNA WHITEHEAD | WICKED LOCAL | 1 hour ago


USA TODAY

EASTON, Mass. – Shelley Gunn describes her Polish grandmother, Jennie Stejna, as having a feisty spirit. Stejna certainly displayed that spirit as the 103-year-old woman recently survived a bout with the coronavirus.


Three weeks ago, Gunn said Stejna was the first to test positive for coronavirus in her nursing home. She had a low-grade fever and was moved to a separate ward.

Stejna didn’t really grasp or understand COVID-19, Gunn said, but did know she was very ill. Gunn said there was always a staff member by her side.

As Stejna’s condition worsened, Gunn said they called to say what they thought were their final goodbyes. She thanked Stejna for everything she had done for her. When Shelley's husband, Adam Gunn, asked whether Stejna was ready to go to heaven, she replied, “Hell yes".

But on May 13, Gunn said she got good news — Stejna had recovered.

“This feisty old Polish grandmother of ours officially beat the coronavirus,” Adam Gunn, said.

“We’re truly very thankful.”

The staff gave Stejna an ice cold Bud Light to celebrate, something she loved but hadn’t had in a long time, Gunn said.

b5c5c9ce-fc65-4601-b179-30d0edd218e4-AR-200528317.jpg
 
Tastes are different. If I were given a Bud Light for celebration, I'd ask for Covid to come back.
 
Did you see how the CEO of Merck said that Merck cannot deliver a vaccine in 2020?

Makes me a bit nervous about the smaller guys getting it done + producing enough this year.

I find it hard to imagine that the initial vaccine won't be an intramuscular injection of some kind, maybe an aerosol or oral later but they always seem to take longer to develop due to having to compensate for how your body naturally prevents stuff getting into you via those methods. IM is just more direct and way more well tested in relation to vaccination.

Off the top of my head the polio vaccine (I think there is one for cholera) is the only majorly common one and its the only one I have ever had and I've been vaccinated a lot (though not saying what I have personally had is the sum total of all vaccinations out there!)

I am not looking forward to the international fights that break out over vaccines, its going to be ugly.
 
Off the top of my head the polio vaccine (I think there is one for cholera) is the only majorly common one and its the only one I have ever had and I've been vaccinated a lot (though not saying what I have personally had is the sum total of all vaccinations out there!)

I am not looking forward to the international fights that break out over vaccines, its going to be ugly.

The influenza vaccine is available in aerosol form but there are massive shortages every year and so usually restricted to children - we have had entire seasons in Canada where we haven't been able to procure ANY so that tells you about productivity. The measles vaccine also exists in aerosol form but I don't think it's as effective as the IM shot.
 
Did you see how the CEO of Merck said that Merck cannot deliver a vaccine in 2020?

Makes me a bit nervous about the smaller guys getting it done + producing enough this year.
Yeah, and if I read correctly, this vaccine Moderna is developing is literally the first thing they've ever had get to this stage of development. I'm skeptical.
 
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