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Old 05-25-2020, 07:57 AM   #201
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California is not ticking back up. We had a 10% drop in new cases the week before last and the r0 dropped below 1 in LA for the first time this week. Our hospitalizations also are at their lowest since March.

There might have been a small superficial increase in positives this week because we're churning out 50k tests a day instead of 30k, but our percent of positive tests today was barely 3%.


I didn’t say they were ticking up - in their case it means they are not improving. Week over week tests are up from 40K (not 30) to 50K which correlated with the increase in total numbers. I would put very little if any stock in the Ro numbers because these are based entirely about assumptions and not a real measure of anything at this point.
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:00 AM   #202
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You literally said the states were ticking up.
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:30 AM   #203
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Global Pandemic Part III: A typical Spring, Just Ask China

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You literally said the states were ticking up.


No. I choose my words carefully - I said heading in the wrong direction and then specified which ones were ticking up. To me the wrong direction is California and if you want a Canadian example, Ontario - basically after some positive trends started opening up, went back to treading water without a real and clear plan on what to do next.

I absolutely concede poor comma usage - but I meant those two states ticking up.
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:43 AM   #204
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To go back to the Ro for a second, because I think that this is a very poorly understood concept that is thrown out there constantly. We all know bits and pieces about things and I actually do know a lot about this because I was on the path of getting a PhD in Immunology - after undergrad, did 3 years of research in a university immunology lab before going to law school. Ro is a very useful concept for well-understood infectious diseases because it's a good marker of epidemiological spread. It tells us a lot about a number of different factors of a virus BUT you have to have a lot of time and know basically everything about how the virus spreads.

We are nowhere near knowing what we need to know about this novel coronavirus to have an accurate Ro. Furthermore, the Ro is not one number in California, another in Illinois, a third in China and a fourth in Italy. That's not how it works - at all.

Down the road, probably years from now, when we have reliable data about spread - which is why it's important that we test as much as possible and also not blatantly continue to lie (hi China), we will know more about who is infectious and for how long - are asymptomatic people who have recovered infectious? We do NOT know that at this point in addition to a number of other things (for example, what is the true transfer and spread rate from a person to an inanimate object to a second person).
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:45 AM   #205
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I didn’t say they were ticking up - in their case it means they are not improving. Week over week tests are up from 40K (not 30) to 50K which correlated with the increase in total numbers. I would put very little if any stock in the Ro numbers because these are based entirely about assumptions and not a real measure of anything at this point.
Let's be precise: for the first 15 days of May, we averaged 33,900 tests a day. Over the last 9, we have averaged 49,800. That's a 46% increase, meaning if the level of infections were to be consistent, or even rising, we would expect at least a 46% increase in positive tests, no?

Compared to the week of May 4-10, this past week only saw an 8.9% increase in new cases despite a huge jump in testing. This is why I would not say things are worsening here in general, or even staying the same. This is crude math, but without knowing population density and demographics for the areas being tested during each timespan, it's the best estimate we have.

Then again, it's difficult to generalize about California. One very complicated part of our situation is the number of American citizens living in Mexico coming to California for medical assistance. The pandemic is hitting Mexico hard and those small border hospitals are experiencing surges. This doesn't impact Los Angeles County and northward so much, but Imperial and San Bernardino County are having a rough go of it.
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Old 05-25-2020, 09:02 AM   #206
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Let's be precise: for the first 15 days of May, we averaged 33,900 tests a day. Over the last 9, we have averaged 49,800. That's a 46% increase, meaning if the level of infections were to be consistent, or even rising, we would expect at least a 46% increase in positive tests, no?

Compared to the week of May 4-10, this past week only saw an 8.9% increase in new cases despite a huge jump in testing. This is why I would not say things are worsening here in general, or even staying the same. This is crude math, but without knowing population density and demographics for the areas being tested during each timespan, it's the best estimate we have.

Then again, it's difficult to generalize about California. One very complicated part of our situation is the number of American citizens living in Mexico coming to California for medical assistance. The pandemic is hitting Mexico hard and those small border hospitals are experiencing surges. This doesn't impact Los Angeles County and northward so much, but Imperial and San Bernardino County are having a rough go of it.
I'll get to the rest later, but I really wanted to say that I appreciate your knowledge, understanding and tone in discussing this. In a really short time you've basically self-taught what a lot of grad students have been studying for years and that's honestly some dedication, particularly in a sort of dry, stats-based field.
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Old 05-25-2020, 09:15 AM   #207
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Let's be precise: for the first 15 days of May, we averaged 33,900 tests a day. Over the last 9, we have averaged 49,800. That's a 46% increase, meaning if the level of infections were to be consistent, or even rising, we would expect at least a 46% increase in positive tests, no?
Definitely no.

When testing numbers are low, you can be pretty certain that you are catching a high % of positives because only symptomatic people + few asymptomatics are testing. As you increase testing capacity, you are by definition going to be catching a LOT of negative individuals. If you saw a 46% increase in testing + a 46% increase in positive cases you'd be in a shitload of trouble.
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Old 05-25-2020, 09:36 AM   #208
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Definitely no.

When testing numbers are low, you can be pretty certain that you are catching a high % of positives because only symptomatic people + few asymptomatics are testing. As you increase testing capacity, you are by definition going to be catching a LOT of negative individuals. If you saw a 46% increase in testing + a 46% increase in positive cases you'd be in a shitload of trouble.
Right, OK, that's very true. I should have considered that with infrequent testing, you're essentially picking off the top and are likely to be selecting from a population that is in greater need of medical intervention. With widespread or compulsory testing (here in Los Angeles, testing is free, with or without symptoms), the demographics are broadened such that testing is almost a matter of curiosity rather than desperation; unless the spread has become so severe that almost everyone has viral RNA crawling around their nasal passages, negatives will pile up fast.

Sadly, the troublesome scenario you laid out is exactly what Brazil is experiencing even as they expand testing. Because they started so late, it will take a long time for them to reach the point where percentage of positive testing begins to flatten. For us, such trends only began to reveal themselves about a month ago.

And thank you for the kind words. I started researching epidemiology in order to exert a small bit of control over a bleak situation and have learned a great deal from you and many extremely well-read and intelligent people working to make sense of the pandemic. Those providing a sense of logic and understanding to frightening numbers may not be first responders, but they do their part to help everyone locked up at home.
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Old 05-25-2020, 10:16 AM   #209
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Sadly, the troublesome scenario you laid out is exactly what Brazil is experiencing even as they expand testing. Because they started so late, it will take a long time for them to reach the point where percentage of positive testing begins to flatten. For us, such trends only began to reveal themselves about a month ago.

And thank you for the kind words. I started researching epidemiology in order to exert a small bit of control over a bleak situation and have learned a great deal from you and many extremely well-read and intelligent people working to make sense of the pandemic. Those providing a sense of logic and understanding to frightening numbers may not be first responders, but they do their part to help everyone locked up at home.
Yes - Brazil is the best case example of that issue.

Another really problematic thing in respect of the Ro is that China is actually at this point probably the only country which can calculate it with near certainty. The reason is that they are STILL hauling off all suspected cases into government-run quarantine facilities and keeping them there for 2-3 weeks, forcibly. This means that they definitely know what the rate of spread is from person to person. However, they will not share that number because they are electing to continue to lie to this day about how many people are testing positive. Just another shitty thing that their government is responsible for. I don't mean to absolve our governments of their responsibilities, but really China caused a big issue at the outset and instead of getting onboard with the entire rest of the world, they continue to lie and obfuscate.
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Old 05-25-2020, 10:37 AM   #210
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Maybe someone can answer this for me: why are the estimates on asymptomatic cases so wildly disparate? This seems like a really important stat to know in terms of infection risk. Shouldn't a randomized sample be able to give a decently clear sense of that?
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Old 05-25-2020, 01:24 PM   #211
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Maybe someone can answer this for me: why are the estimates on asymptomatic cases so wildly disparate? This seems like a really important stat to know in terms of infection risk. Shouldn't a randomized sample be able to give a decently clear sense of that?
Because there are a lot of variables that cause that range to be significant.

It would be highly dependent on the "randomized" population which is a hard thing to control for. First, because it depends on whom you are infecting - if you are an asymptomatic relatively young person employed in a long-term care facility, it's a good bet that most of the people you infect will subsequently be symptomatic. Whereas maybe a 20-year-old warehouse employee who has 4 other healthy young, roommates may primarily infect those who would not be symptomatic. We also don't really fully understand the viral load but there is evidence that those exposed to a high viral load tend to get very ill - so likely there is a range of viral load from asymptomatic to somebody needing a ventilator. If you are infected and your viral load is high, the % of people that you infect who will be symptomatic will then be that much higher than average.
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Old 05-25-2020, 02:28 PM   #212
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The new Baptism-bizarre, sad, depressing. Uncomfortable laughter

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Old 05-25-2020, 02:48 PM   #213
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I actually think that's hilarious/cute.
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Old 05-25-2020, 06:45 PM   #214
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Needs to get a super soaker and he can do dozens of kids in one ceremony.
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Old 05-26-2020, 03:13 PM   #215
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I saw a guy on the news yesterday who was at one of those crowded events over the holiday weekend, in one of the Southern states. A reporter asked him why he wasn't wearing a mask, and he said that Trump doesn't wear one so he's not going to.

Horrifying level of idolatry and lack of critical thinking. It boggles the mind. People were waving massive Trump flags while not distancing or wearing masks.

Congrats Donnie, you're such a leader by example.
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Old 05-26-2020, 07:29 PM   #216
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Brit Hume from Fox News actually tweeted this picture of Joe Biden in a mask at the Korean War memorial yesterday and said it might help explain why Trump doesn't want to wear a mask in public. Trump retweeted it. They're both juvenile idiots, obviously.

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This guy's tweet to Hume belongs in a Twitter hall of fame

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Biden is a badass. the president is a hopped-up-on-drugs bloated creampuff with dainty baby hands dangling from his withered t-rex arms, teetering on 3" lifts in his shoes and a girdle that makes him pitch forward like he's about to face-plant. but whatever you say, Brit.
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Old 05-27-2020, 09:58 AM   #217
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I wonder if Jeff Tiedrich has an alarm that will wake him up at 4 am when Trump is doing his morning constitutional tweeting so that he can reply
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Old 05-27-2020, 10:45 AM   #218
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https://twitter.com/charles_gaba/sta...89413049589761
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Old 05-27-2020, 11:53 AM   #219
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Lots of reporting that the Trump camp is freaking out about the polling both for the presidency and the Senate. Like, it could be a 350-400 EC wipeout if this continues.

Hold the line. Get in line. Find the Trump supporters you know and do what you can to persuade them. Be calm but clear.

Trumpism must be destroyed and sent into the gutter of history. That’s what matters right now. Even if you live in a place, like I do, that will go 90%+ for Biden, add your vote to that column. The victory must be overwhelming, so we can bury Trumpism.
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Old 05-27-2020, 12:29 PM   #220
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrsSpringsteen View Post
Brit Hume from Fox News actually tweeted this picture of Joe Biden in a mask at the Korean War memorial yesterday and said it might help explain why Trump doesn't want to wear a mask in public. Trump retweeted it. They're both juvenile idiots, obviously.

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This guy's tweet to Hume belongs in a Twitter hall of fame

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Biden is a badass. the president is a hopped-up-on-drugs bloated creampuff with dainty baby hands dangling from his withered t-rex arms, teetering on 3" lifts in his shoes and a girdle that makes him pitch forward like he's about to face-plant. but whatever you say, Brit.
Good on Biden for trolling

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