Global Pandemic Part II: Sequel Escalation

[MrsSpringsteen]

Trump's valet has tested positive. Hope he's ok, but on a much lighter note can you imagine being Trump's valet?

 

[Hewson]

but on a much lighter note can you imagine being Trump's valet?

"Higgins, can you put a fresh pair of bikini briefs on me, I have an interview with that reporter from OAN in a half hour."

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Snedley, please fetch my long tie. No not that one, Snedley... The long one. And a Diet Coke. Chop chop, Snedley.

 

[anitram]

How are these two not in jail?

She Said Anthony Fauci Sexually Assaulted Her. Now She Says Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman Paid Her to Lie.

"Let me tell you something, Diana," says Burkman. "This guy shut the country down. He put 40 million people out of work. In a situation like that, you have to make up whatever you have to make up to stop that train and that's the way life works, OK? That's the way it goes."

Andrade counters that he and Wohl are not taking COVID-19 seriously. "It's not just any virus. I mean, it's a huge deal….I think you guys think it's something made up, and it's not."

"Mother Nature has to clean the barn every so often," Burkman counters. "How real is it? Who knows? So what if 1 percent of the population goes? So what if you lose 400,000 people? Two hundred thousand were elderly, the other 200,000 are the bottom of society. You got to clean out the barn. If it's real, it's a positive thing, for God's sake."

"So, what? Survival of the fittest?" Andrade asks, a bit more pique in her voice. (The sense you are dealing with people who have an enthusiasm for eugenics can do that.) But Wohl's not having it.

"Diana, look, can you just do this for me?" he says. "Can you just keep your mouth shut and just…just do it for me."

https://reason.com/2020/05/07/she-s...-jacob-wohl-and-jack-burkman-paid-her-to-lie/

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

The WH valets don't wear masks. CNN is reporting that Trump is privately questioning if he should be seen wearing a mask, because he thinks that contradicts his reopening message.

That's today's episode of When A Gaslighter Is Confused By His Own Gaslighting

 

[BEAL]

One angle not being talked about. If the ACA eventually gets dropped, will insurance cover you if you caught the virus ?

You cannot join the military if you test positive, so would this turn into a pre existing condition ?

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

This bit from that quoted section anitram shared...

"Mother Nature has to clean the barn every so often," Burkman counters. "How real is it? Who knows? So what if 1 percent of the population goes? So what if you lose 400,000 people? Two hundred thousand were elderly, the other 200,000 are the bottom of society. You got to clean out the barn. If it's real, it's a positive thing, for God's sake."

The "pro-life" Christian party, everyone.

The WH valets don't wear masks. CNN is reporting that Trump is privately questioning if he should be seen wearing a mask, because he thinks that contradicts his reopening message.

That's today's episode of When A Gaslighter Is Confused By His Own Gaslighting

The stupid, it burns.

I want Trump to wear a mask simply because it'll muffle his obnoxious voice somewhat.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

CNN reported that everyone who enters the Oval Office removes their masks. Apparently Trump is tested daily, and doesn't even want to see masks on other people?

Yes it's difficult to understand what people are saying when they're wearing a mask. But I doubt Trump is even listening.

 

[cobl04]

Looks like we're back to gatherings of up to 10 people on Monday folks.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Apparently Trump is tested daily, and doesn't even want to see masks on other people?

Apparently his reason for not wearing a mask is that he's afraid he'd look ridiculous in one.

Yeah.

Please, please, universe, let karma come back and bite him so goddamn hard somehow. Please.

Yes it's difficult to understand what people are saying when they're wearing a mask. But I doubt Trump is even listening.

And, I mean, we live in an era where you don't have to actually speak to get your thoughts across. Lord knows he tweets often enough, just keep doing that if he desperately wants to continue putting his shitty thoughts out there.

 

[LemonMelon]

Looks like we're back to gatherings of up to 10 people on Monday folks.

Crowdless footy soon pls

 

[Irvine511]

Anyone else actually feeling less optimistic? I’ve been feeling the dread creeping in more and more as this thing doesn’t seem to be getting better fast enough. I now have friends with dead parents because of COVID.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

I haven't felt optimistic throughout this whole crisis and I sure as hell don't now things are reopening, simply because, well, look at the idiots in charge. If anything is giving me any kind of hope, it's the responsible, mature, intelligent governors out there actually doing their jobs and the medical experts and professionals who are working hard to try and get some treatments and an eventual vaccine out there. They're the reason any of us might be able to make it through this crisis at all.

 

[LemonMelon]

Certainly not less optimistic. There's a very obvious decline in fatalities going on worldwide:





And that's with cases on the increase throughout the world. I think there are substantive changes taking place within the virus itself and our approach to treatment that will cause this trend to continue. It's apparent in the US as well, albeit less so:



It's easy to get depressed when good news isn't being reported in many major outlets. Recoveries may as well not be happening. It would take the virus completely disappearing for CNN to squeeze out a reassuring word. The LA Times claimed two days ago that "our first piece of good news" came in the form of an announcement that we're reopening slightly. Are you fucking kidding me? What an insult to the excellent work our hospitals, virologists and citizens have done to get the r0 down from 1.2 to nearly 0.8 in a matter of weeks.

There is very real, meaningful good news and progress happening every day.

 

[Vincent Vega]

In Russia, three doctors who criticized the country's handling of the virus fell out of windows and it appears that more people are starting to wonder why so many of Putin's critics or enemies seem to have such problems with their balance when near windows.

 

[LemonMelon]

I'll make an addendum to my last post. More of a bonus rant, really. Just what we all needed.

I don't begrudge anyone for engaging in pessimism right now. I almost killed myself in March because of what I was seeing around me. The sick and the well suffer in different ways, carrying unique but interconnected burdens. Because of this interconnectivity, we are in a situation that encourages pessimism as both a moral and intellectual obligation. If you take a pragmatic, optimistic view on the pandemic, you are all too often perceived as a selfish lockdown-protesting MAGA sympathizer with no appreciation for science.

The reality is that in the hundreds of hours I have spent investigating every corner of this pandemic to assume imagined - and a modicum of very real - control over my situation, I have discovered that the communities dedicated to research and scientific inquiry have been trending towards optimism for months. You are actually upvoted for making positive inferences about data! I feel so much more informed and optimistic after shifting my focus from opinion pieces to data. What does that say about the pandemic?

Meanwhile, on Twitter, where information is compressed to a couple hundred characters, I am frequently reprimanded for daring to suggest that - and this is a doozy on my part - we might have an effective treatment for COVID-19 by September. Someone called me an ignorant fool living on assumptions for making that suggestion. When I asked for any scientific literature that implied we were looking at years without a treatment, I didn't receive a response. Well, actually, I did; they condescended to me some more without supplying the research and trial data that I requested. Can't blame them for going that route because, frankly, such literature doesn't exist.

There are no scientists in the trenches right now that are wiping away their sweat and thinking to themselves "This is a lost cause! We're all doomed!" The number of treatment and vaccine candidates we have is overwhelming and the competition to receive FDA approval is so fierce that there is no time to indulge in doubt. There is very real strength in productive optimism and it's being fostered in the communities I focus on. If you're not reading analyses of trial data, scientific papers (preferably peer-reviewed) or looking over raw data, you're almost certainly going to become pessimistic because in mainstream media outlets and in many social media communities you are treated like a lesser person if you "downplay" the virus with an optimistic perspective.

I will give you an example of how our local news outlets are twisting facts around to further a narrative that is perceived to be morally and intellectually responsible. This really got my goat at the time because I had been watching our hospitalizations very closely:

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1256335843960057856?s=20

[TWEET]1256335843960057856[/TWEET]

This reads like a fact-based analysis of the situation in our hospitals. The problem is that, at the time of that tweet, the number of hospitalized suspected COVID-19 cases had dropped substantially throughout the month of April.

https://calmatters.org/health/coron...virus-covid-patient-hospitalization-data-icu/

The CDC counts suspected COVID-19 deaths, and suspected cases generally receive the same hospital resources as positive cases, so it's irresponsible to judge the situation in our hospitals by one set of data while ignoring others when they're highly relevant.

But, once the reopening was announced, their tune changed. This is from the article I highlighted in my previous post:

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/sto...-is-starting-to-re-open-dont-let-it-backslide

Coronavirus infections and COVID-19 deaths have been kept in check in the most populous state. Better yet, hospitalizations for people sickened by COVID-19 appear to have started going down from last week’s peak.

California’s current totals — 54,937 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 2,254 deaths — may sound bad, but some public health experts had expected things to be much, much worse at this point. Instead, hospitals haven’t been overrun with sick people. Bodies weren’t stacked up in trucks. And now, after weeks of furious efforts to increase capacity, testing is up to 30,000 people a day statewide. The state has 24 million medical-grade face masks for healthcare providers. More than 10,000 ventilators are sitting idle, and there are 2,072 empty hospital beds.

These are more than just encouraging statistics. Together they mark an important inflection point for the state.

Oh, wow. All that changed in 3 days? Amazing what a word from above can do for a paper's perspective on a developing situation.

These are frightening times and it's easy to become overwhelmed by what one sees and hears, especially when it impacts you personally. I get that I have been spared a lot of misery because of a fortunate set of circumstances. But that just means I have the obligation of delivering my unique perspective, substantiated by research.

I think it's fucking great that Californians will be able to use hiking trails again. It's much, much better that they hang around outside than crowd our Walmarts. But I also think we need to take slow, careful steps forward with a close eye on the r0, which has only lowered because, frankly, a lot of people were scared. There is a time and a place for fear. I don't think it should be applied to all situations.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Just want to say thank you, LM, for your posts. I appreciate you going in depth with your points here, and I actually do genuinely feel better reading them .

Honestly, with the advancements and technologies and such that exist in the medical world nowadays, I genuinely would not be surprised if we get a vaccine sooner than predicted. I totally get why people don't want to get too specific with their timelines regarding when such things will be available and all that, of course, and I certainly wouldn't want anything to be too rushed, 'cause that's obviously risky as well. But yeah, I've no doubt they'll definitely do whatever they're able to do to try and make that happen, and I hope that good news does come as soon as humanly possible.

Anywho, thanks again, LM, for the reassuring, hopeful words.

 

[LemonMelon]

It's no problem. In fact, it's part of my routine that keeps me sane. I don't have the expertise to be a first responder, it's not my role, but we can all play a part in making the people we come into contact with healthier, both in terms of social distancing and the information we offer. We can make people sicker with fear just as we can with garbage like Plandemic that stirs up conspiracy nuts.

Things aren't OK. They're not. This virus has stolen from all of us. But as long as we're alive, I think we can take a little something back through our actions.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Anyone else actually feeling less optimistic? I’ve been feeling the dread creeping in more and more as this thing doesn’t seem to be getting better fast enough. I now have friends with dead parents because of COVID.

I feel a mix of angst and pessimism that we did this for 60+ days and it will be all for naught because we'll open up too soon and see the spike we would have had in March if we didn't do this shit in the first place, and people would just look the other way because we're all angsty balls of stress from being locked up for 60+ days.

 

[BEAL]

I feel a mix of angst and pessimism that we did this for 60+ days and it will be all for naught because we'll open up too soon and see the spike we would have had in March if we didn't do this shit in the first place, and people would just look the other way because we're all angsty balls of stress from being locked up for 60+ days.

This is where I’m at. I have friends who are fooled into thinking since states are opening back up then summer fun is on the way. I ask them where did the virus go ?

My biggest dread is with the Trump admin. I cannot think of one single policy, one action they have taken this entire 3+ year that hasn’t turned into a complete disaster. His pandemic response is just like his business model. Lots of talk, gets people to build something, then walks away and screws everyone over.

I’m concerned about the reaction of people who will be told to shelter in place again in 3-4 weeks when cases skyrocket.

And let’s not even mention the anger if/when there’s no football this fall

 

[anitram]

I feel a mix of angst and pessimism that we did this for 60+ days and it will be all for naught because we'll open up too soon and see the spike we would have had in March if we didn't do this shit in the first place, and people would just look the other way because we're all angsty balls of stress from being locked up for 60+ days.

Same.

I do think that in the near-term we will start to have an easier time in our lives because things will partially open. Like LM said - even outdoor trails, parks, etc being available will help a lot in terms of mental health. We will stop seeing crazy line ups at Costco and various shortages too. And in the long-term I also think that we will be fine, because treatments + vaccine are in my view inevitable. Life will change a lot, there is no denying it, but we won't be in despair.

However, I am really concerned about the medium term, of say the next 3-12 months. At this point I absolutely think that we'll see a second wave and that it will be massive. People will relax over the summer, it will spread like wildfire and if they open up schools, daycares, universities, colleges in the fall + have office workers start coming back then we're cooked unless there is some sort of treatment that emerges in the meantime. The big problem will be that compliance levels will be lower the second time around.

Another concerning thing is the study that Cuomo was talking about in NY - where fully 60% of those hospitalized were actually self-isolating. They weren't going in to work, they weren't using transit, and they were only out and about for essentials. Frankly this squares with the Chinese study of the virus spreading in a large restaurant through HVAC. The vast majority of people in NYC live in apartments, and many of these are really old with antiquated HVAC systems that are recycling and redistributing air. I would really like this study repeated in a low-density area like California or Florida, for example, where you have a large % of people living in single-family dwellings. The reason this is concerning is because it could spread like wildfire in large office complexes, even if people inside are physically distancing.

 

[LemonMelon]

There are going to be a lot of people getting sick in the fall, that's for sure. Our best bet is to take strides in the months before next flu season so we can get that fatality rate down.

The work being done with convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibodies is truly remarkable and could serve as a bridge to a vaccine. It's a souped-up version of a treatment we've been using for over a century; five different companies are working towards locating powerful antibodies, cloning them and developing a drug from them that can be brought up to scale.

https://6abc.com/convalescent-plasma-covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic/6157666/

 

[BEAL]

https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1258741293070585858?s=21

Red states have seen their cases on the rise, where the blue / purple states have declined.

Problem is red states have nearly all decided to say fuck it and open back up this week, right as they’re on the climb.

I think the first week of June could be really ugly, both statistically and morale

 

[Hewson]

I'm with Travis, I look at the local data daily (wife is keeping a daily log of case numbers in the state etc.) and while I am not doing the deep dive he is into the scientific world's work on developing treatments and vaccines, I see the numbers have flattened and started to turn here just as they did in NY, and the major thing is that the hospital system didn't come close to getting overwhelmed. We certainly have to proceed with extreme caution, but if we get a summer lull followed by a fall resurgence of the virus I am quite confident the ensuing 5-6 months will provide ample time for better preparedness and some viable treatment options to lessen the impact until a vaccine is deployed. Obviously something has to be done to better protect the elderly and infirmed, most specifically nursing home and long term care facility residents, who account for a whopping 60% of Covid-19 deaths here in Massachusetts.

 

[anitram]

The work being done with convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibodies is truly remarkable and could serve as a bridge to a vaccine. It's a souped-up version of a treatment we've been using for over a century; five different companies are working towards locating powerful antibodies, cloning them and developing a drug from them that can be brought up to scale.

https://6abc.com/convalescent-plasma-covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic/6157666/

It's not particularly remarkable given that this has been around for a very long time (like back when I was doing immunology research nearly 20 years ago), but it is definitely promising and I think they are right that it will precede the vaccine.

There is a Canadian pilot program now running using dialysis machines (modified) to basically reprogram white blood cell response while the blood is circulating out of the body and then return them in the filtered blood to the body which they are estimating has brought down the odds of death for the most critical ventilated patients from 98% to 30%. I am not sure how practical this would be on non-critical patients, but it's a neat medical trick with existing technology.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

This is where I’m at. I have friends who are fooled into thinking since states are opening back up then summer fun is on the way. I ask them where did the virus go ?

My biggest dread is with the Trump admin. I cannot think of one single policy, one action they have taken this entire 3+ year that hasn’t turned into a complete disaster. His pandemic response is just like his business model. Lots of talk, gets people to build something, then walks away and screws everyone over.

I’m concerned about the reaction of people who will be told to shelter in place again in 3-4 weeks when cases skyrocket.

And let’s not even mention the anger if/when there’s no football this fall

While I never underestimate the Trump administration's ability to fuck something up... I think that ship has sailed.

When a quarter of the population unemployed with no end in sight, and those who are employed are staring down the tunnel at unemployment, furloughs and pay cuts themselves... and those employed are often balancing work with home schooling? When many extroverts have been alone for months and just as many introverts haven't been able to be alone for months?

Cracking is inevitable.

The hope was that our government was competent enough to make sure that we were in a better place when the cracks finally come... but, welp... that's been hit or miss to put it lightly. The federal government has been the disaster they've always been and has used this time to further undermine our government while nobody's paying any attention. Some states have done great, others are just seeing this as an Ordinary Spring[emoji769].

But the cracking point is neigh, if it isn't already here.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Pence's press secretary tested positive. Katie Miller, wife of Stephen Miller. Looks like a possible WH community spread.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Fake News!

 

[Irvine511]

Pence's press secretary tested positive. Katie Miller, wife of Stephen Miller. Looks like a possible WH community spread.

Stephen “children in cages” Miller?

 

[Hewson]

Stephen “children in cages” Miller?

It's not Stephen "Fly Like an Eagle" Miller.