Global Pandemic Part II: Sequel Escalation

The friendliest place on the web for anyone that follows U2.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Well, my son’s mom is a confirmed case. We share 50/50 custody so I’m pretty sure I’ll have it too via my son and drop offs.

Greeeaaaaat
 
Assume you’ll need to go into 14 day Q.

My ex had to do the same since a few of her coworkers tested positive.

She said she had a cough for about five days and felt a little off. But she didn’t meet the testing standards so who knows.

We’re both hoping she got it and beat it

Good luck Mikal
 
Assume you’ll need to go into 14 day Q.

My ex had to do the same since a few of her coworkers tested positive.

She said she had a cough for about five days and felt a little off. But she didn’t meet the testing standards so who knows.

We’re both hoping she got it and beat it

Good luck Mikal

Thanks. Yep my son and I both are in 14 day quarantine. I’m lucky enough to work from home and don’t have a loss of income but still scary.
 
Hang in there, Mikal. Don't let anxiety about possibly getting it steal your life from you; I've been living in that frame of mind for over a month now and once you've taken every precaution it's not worth the stress.
 
Hang in there, Mikal. Don't let anxiety about possibly getting it steal your life from you; I've been living in that frame of mind for over a month now and once you've taken every precaution it's not worth the stress.



A teacher i respect very much told me

Viruses spread, but fear doesn’t have to. We have no control over a virus and our overall health. We do have control over our mind and allowing emotions to arise and pass, but it takes work.

Everyone stay safe
 
A teacher i respect very much told me

Viruses spread, but fear doesn’t have to. We have no control over a virus and our overall health. We do have control over our mind and allowing emotions to arise and pass, but it takes work.

Everyone stay safe

I love this. The psychological fallout of the virus and quarantine has gone somewhat overlooked. I hang out on the anxiety subreddit and it has been a great comfort to me because they go out of their way to only post sourced stories and take positive slants whenever possible.
 
Is there any reason not to feel good about this development?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/hea...t-protect-against-covid-19-1.4222110?mode=amp

More “striking” evidence has emerged that the BCG vaccine given to counter TB may provide protection against Covid-19 and significantly reduce death rates in countries with high levels of vaccination.

A study of 178 countries by an Irish medical consultant working with epidemiologists at the University of Texas in Houston shows countries with vaccination programmes – including Ireland – have far fewer coronavirus cases by a factor 10, compared to where BCG programmes are no longer deployed.

This translates into a death rate up to 20-times less, according to urologist Paul Hegarty of the Mater Hospital, Dublin.

Their “correlation” study, expected to be published shortly by PLOS journal, is largely a statistical one and comes with caveats because of possibility of confounding factors. But it is more comprehensive than an initial one conducted in New York, which prompted a scaling up of clinical trials on people with Covid-19.

To reduce the possibility of error, the researchers re-evaluated cases during the course of the pandemic and made country-by-country comparisons including between Ireland and the UK, Mr Hegarty said. “We did not expect to see such a marked difference.”

“Over the 15 days, incidence of Covid-19 was 38 per million in countries with BCG vaccination whereas the incidence of Covid-19 was 358 per million in the absence of such a programme. The death rate was 4.28 per million in countries with BCG programmes and 40 per million in countries without such a programme,” he added.

Sounds like the foundation for a more targeted coronavirus vaccine, or possibly a relatively cheap and safe booster in the event of a second wave.
 
I’m hopeful for antivirals in the next few months to give us some protection going into summer and fall.

Otherwise we really are waiting on the virus to run out of hosts and the vaccine.

There is a lot to be hopeful about. This too shall pass, and what can we control? Our reaction to each moment. Equanimity is a powerful tool.
 
Thanks everyone for the well wishes. :hug:

It's crazy how this all made it even more real than it was before. I woke up a little stuffy today but nothing I would even think about if the pandemic wasn't going on, so I'm monitoring things closely. I get allergies this time of the year too so who knows?
 
Is there any reason not to feel good about this development?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/hea...t-protect-against-covid-19-1.4222110?mode=amp



Sounds like the foundation for a more targeted coronavirus vaccine, or possibly a relatively cheap and safe booster in the event of a second wave.

Really interesting and may explain why Eastern Europe hasn't been a total shit show.

I got the BCG vaccine as a child.

mikal - stay safe, fingers crossed for you. The first days will be the worst with anticipation, hope you can occupy your mind somehow.
 
I couldn’t believe my eyes when a trump supporter in a comments section said that the “fake” impeachment of trump was worse than the 11k Americans that died. That was his response to someone who was saying trump needs to own up to the current mess. That’s by far the worst comment I have seen from a trump supporter! To actually think that the impeachment was worse than 11k people dying is beyond comprehension.
:ohmy:

:gah: :gah: :gah:
The cruelty of some drumph supporters!

Well, my son’s mom is a confirmed case. We share 50/50 custody so I’m pretty sure I’ll have it too via my son and drop offs.

Greeeaaaaat

Hooo, boy! :(

Good Luck, mikal, for you and your family. Hopefully you won't get it, or the mildest case possible !
 
https://twitter.com/alexbrooklynn/status/1247879404992237569?s=21

Other countries like Italy and Spain saw similar results.

I don’t think we’ll truly know the scale of death for a while.

It’s a concern of mine knowing that i live alone, don’t really have anyone close to me that i interact with. If i were to get sick and have trouble breathing, moving, etc....i better hope my dog can bark to 911
 
3IAj33T.jpg


It's subtle, but you can see the deceleration of new cases happening a little at a time. It took three weeks for shit to get completely out of hand all over the world and it could take just as long to see an obvious improvement, but a lot of (non-US) countries are seeing positive results from their efforts.

And it's not just new cases. The growth rate in COVID-19 deaths worldwide was between 10-14% every day for three straight weeks, but this week we've seen that number drop to around 8% and as low as 7%. It doesn't seem like much, but we haven't seen a growth rate that low since March 14. Not even once. Three days in the last seven have posted a drop in deaths from the previous day, whereas before it was primarily a steady climb upward.

Lockdowns are dreary and have an enormous economic impact but they are working. It's incredibly unfortunate that the US wasn't more unified in its approach. We could have saved many lives and created a reliable timeline for recovery.
 
Last edited:
My concern is the models don’t account for Trump.

The man will absolutely fuck things up by telling the nation it’s free to go back to work.

Will that have as big of an impact in CA or WA, states that have done really well with their response....i don’t think so (but plenty of people would break the SD)

It’s the Red states that would throw a giant party and we’d see infections rising again.

I am also concerned that the US will scale down testing to try and fudge the numbers. “See!!! New cases are dropping. Open it up!!”

Example


https://twitter.com/npratc/status/1247988083376549888?s=21
 
Last edited:
All the best to everyone who is or may be infected, and their loved ones!

My concern is the models don’t account for Trump.

The man will absolutely fuck things up by telling the nation it’s free to go back to work.

Will that have as big of an impact in CA or WA, states that have done really well with their response....i don’t think so (but plenty of people would break the SD)

It’s the Red states that would throw a giant party and we’d see infections rising again.

I am also concerned that the US will scale down testing to try and fudge the numbers. “See!!! New cases are dropping. Open it up!!”

Example


https://twitter.com/npratc/status/1247988083376549888?s=21

I wonder if the Administration has already considered the Turkmenistan approach: Just ban the use of the word from any official publications, communications etc. (I couldn't verify if people really have been arrested for saying the word in public).

First results of an interesting study have just been published from a small town in the west of Germany, where after a carnival celebration the first major outbreak of Covid-19 in Germany occured.
These two tweets summarize the most important findings I guess:


2. They found #COVID19 virus in 2% of the study population (only 500 subjects so far) but #COVID19 antibodies in 14% which means that 14% must have been infected and are now immune
The #COVID19 mortality rate in this German county was approximately 0.37 percent if one takes into account all the infected people including those which were asymptomatic and did not know they were #COVID19 positive
https://twitter.com/jalees_rehman/status/1248260735110692864

5/n Importantly, the Preliminary Results & Conclusions of the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study are drawn from only @ 500 people (out of a total of @ 1,000 people in the study, out of @ 12.5k inhabitants).
9/n The mortality rate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate) for the whole population of #Gangelt is at 0.15 % at this time.
10/ Overall in Germany: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven". #SARSCov2 was detected by PCR on "remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles" BUT NOT in infectious form.
11c/ What IS dangerous is people. The entire #COVID19 outbreak in #Heinsberg district is traced back to a couple who attended a local Karneval festival. It all kicked off from there.
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1248245914474409985
 
Very interesting German stats, thank you for sharing.

It's clear to any thinking person that physical distancing measures are working, and working well. And that any kind of reopening of the economy must be done in phases. I think it would be very difficult mentally and emotionally for people to spend weeks in lockdown, then a premature opening happens, and 2 months later they are back in the same lockdown as wave 2 hits. Compliance rates would likely be lower as well.

The other thing that has always struck me as disturbing about those promoting herd immunity is the long term effects. Roughly 20% of those infected come down with pneumonia and a fraction of those will end up on ventilators and/or die. But the ones who survive appear to have sustained (and potentially lifelong, impossible to tell at this stage) lung damage. Herd immunity given Ro has been predicted to be in the 50-70% range. Even if you take the low end of 50% of your entire population needing to be infected, 20% of 50% is a lot of people who could potentially have significant changes to their quality of life, not to mention the pulmonary burden on the healthcare system. If somebody told you that if you got infected, you had possibly as high as a 20% chance of developing permanent lung damage, would you take that chance? Or try to sit it out and wait for a vaccine? I know what my answer would be...
 
Yes, thanks for that info Vincent.
If the virus is not infectious on surfaces that could alleviate a lot of tension (and folks sanitizing their grocery packaging etc. when they get it home). Hope that is indeed the case.
 
Those German stats are fascinating, especially spread on surfaces, but the author probably undersells the transmissibility of the virus in his conclusions. A similar Icelandic study found that 50% of the study population had the virus, a far cry from 15%. We need more examples and a broader range to make solid conclusions about asymptomatic cases.
 
Last edited:
Those German stats are fascinating, especially spread on surfaces, but the author probably undersells the transmissibility of the virus in his conclusions. A similar Icelandic study found that 50% of the study population had the virus, a far cry from 15%. We need more examples and a broader range to make solid conclusions about asymptomatic cases.

None of the studies so far are convincing in this regard because they are either too small (i.e. too few people) or located in places that are not representative of your average, whatever that may be. For example, the Italian study that showed a 40% infection rate was done in a region/town with one of the highest infection rates, so of course it's not particularly helpful.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom