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Old 05-04-2020, 10:00 PM   #841
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Also some good news in New York, even though Mondays are the best days as far as these things go (let's see if they hold up tomorrow).

Fewest number of deaths since late March (226, from a peak of 799 on April 10), only 11% of tests were positive, by far the lowest so far. If we keep it up for a couple of weeks, we'll be in a good spot.
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Old 05-04-2020, 11:33 PM   #842
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With new discoveries and treatments being made all the time and social distancing doing its part to keep hospitals below capacity, simply waiting until after Memorial Day weekend to open could save thousands of lives.

Opening in any capacity will lead to a regression, but it could orders of magnitude less impactful if we're starting out from a lower r0. Rt.live uses a similar metric and claims that all but 6 states have a Rt below 1, which does NOT mean we can open up. It means what we're doing is working and should be continued until social distancing alone can sufficiently manage the r0.

Another site has their own variant called the "effective r0" that places most states between 0.9 and 1.3, but I think that's more of a multiplier than a true r0: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/...united-states/
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Old 05-04-2020, 11:49 PM   #843
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My take is thank fuck I live in Australia and not in America, holy shit, the problems in the US run so, so deep.

But that doesn't mean pockets of Australia aren't insane. This owns:



We're on stage three restrictions in Victoria, my state, meaning gatherings of more than two people are banned and you can be fined if you're outside your place of residence for anything other than daily exercise, shopping or essential school or work.

Our country has done quite well, with our graph tracking downwards since its heights in late March / early April.

I am hoping that the restrictions will be eased soon to allow gatherings of up to 10 people. That will be quite exciting and I feel like it will make people appreciate simple things way more than we have previously, as we took them for granted. Sport looks set to resume in June/July, without crowds.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:38 AM   #844
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geeeez
What a waste of money! Don't you have any right-wing TV media in Aussie land?

gump Good to hear. Guess I, well, actually I didn't to much news- so I missed that.

And a frickin' (under Trump's permissive zeitgeist) Kluxer showed up in supermarket!?
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:36 AM   #845
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When discussing the possibility of a second wave, attenuating mutations in the virus are worth taking into consideration. It looks like this evolutionary process may have already begun:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...ronavirus.html

Quote:
Now, using a pool of 382 nasal swab samples obtained from possible COVID-19 cases in Arizona, Lim's team has identified a SARS-CoV-2 mutation that had never been found before—where 81 of the letters have vanished, permanently deleted from the genome.

The study was published in the online version of the Journal of Virology.

Lim says as soon as he made the manuscript data available on a preprint server medRxiv, it has attracted worldwide interest from the scientific community, including the World Health Organization.

"One of the reasons why this mutation is of interest is because it mirrors a large deletion that arose in the 2003 SARS outbreak," said Lim, an assistant professor at ASU's Biodesign Institute. During the middle and late phases of the SARS epidemic, SARS-CoV accumulated mutations that attenuated the virus. Scientists believe that a weakened virus that causes less severe disease may have a selective advantage if it is able to spread efficiently through populations by people who are infected unknowingly.
Theoretically, this could mean continued efficient spread of the virus, albeit with fewer severe and critical cases, which reflects a pattern we've been seeing in the numbers for a while now. The worldwide number of active severe and critical cases is lower today than it was in mid-April despite active cases in general climbing by over 60% since then.

Now, how widespread will this mutation become? What localities will experience it? That remains to be seen.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:49 AM   #846
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There's still so much unknown about this virus and how it will mutate and evolve and where we'll be in a few months.

The "ehermagaad this is just a fluuuu let's go to zee beach" people and the "ehermagaad we're never going to be the same life as we know it is uveeer" folks can both probably shut the fuck up, as the end result will likely be somewhere in the middle.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:53 AM   #847
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Its a good news/bad news thing.
If its a markedly less severe strain, it could be a good thing for it to spread easily and get us closer to herd immunity, assuming you achieve immunity from all strains if you get the less severe strain. Or could just spread lesser disease more readily and not provide immunity against the severe original strain.
Certainly bears watching.
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Old 05-05-2020, 11:00 AM   #848
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The problem is we’re only going to know by getting out there. Our local and state governments can only do so much.

With Trump in charge expect the worst

Missouri has allowed concerts to resume


https://twitter.com/yashar/status/12...616460289?s=21

Covid19 Infectious & Experience tour will be a sellout
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:00 PM   #849
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oh man, concerts are a no brainer.

Just sell 6,000 tickets for 60,000 seat stadium, and charge 2,000 dollars a ticket. BAM! done.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:33 PM   #850
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oh man, concerts are a no brainer.

Just sell 6,000 tickets for 60,000 seat stadium, and charge 2,000 dollars a ticket. BAM! done.
You expect Bon Jovi to lower his prices?
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Old 05-05-2020, 02:34 PM   #851
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I think that's the pricing scheme for the new Rolling Stones tour.
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Old 05-05-2020, 03:56 PM   #852
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You expect Bon Jovi to lower his prices?


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Old 05-05-2020, 04:03 PM   #853
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people can't cough during the show if they have to cough up everything to get in the door.

f(ಠ‿↼)z
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Old 05-05-2020, 04:24 PM   #854
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Me during Living On A Prayer

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Old 05-05-2020, 07:15 PM   #855
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https://twitter.com/zachjourno/statu...83504202596352

https://twitter.com/zachjourno/statu...84539772006401

https://twitter.com/zachjourno/statu...88682251239425
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Old 05-05-2020, 07:29 PM   #856
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^

That could make for a very awkward moment. If you have self-awareness.
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Old 05-05-2020, 07:38 PM   #857
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:16 PM   #858
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So we no longer need the coronavirus task force? Ok, that's a wrap.

Trump is bored with it, and it's getting too close to the election.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:41 PM   #859
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
^

That could make for a very awkward moment. If you have self-awareness.


It feels intentional. Like someone in the factory knew what they were doing.

And, yes. Trump is bored. He has the drama of playing the vicitm of yet ano her whistleblower to look forward to, but it’s much more fun to hold rallies and do racisms and complain complain complain about how EVERYONE is mean to you.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:21 PM   #860
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Today's numbers compared to last Tuesday:

Worldwide:
Cases +4,728 (+6.2%)
Deaths -901 (-13.5%)

USA
Cases -611 (-2.4%)
Deaths -120 (-4.9%)

In case you're wondering where those extra 4,728 cases came from, Russia reported 3,691 more cases than they did last Tuesday.

The worldwide trend continues of mild cases outpacing severe ones at a higher rate, with the result showing up in the death totals. Just makes the evidence of viral mutation that much more compelling.
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