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Old 04-27-2020, 02:15 PM   #681
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Collectively, this Sunday was the least deadly day of the pandemic since March 28th. Daily growth rate in newly reported deaths dropped to 2% for the first time since March 2nd. I would expect a rather large spike tomorrow because of underreporting, but who knows? Taking the whole week into account, this past week saw fewer deaths than the previous two.
I think that it's clear that physical distancing measures are working. No better proof than in the data.

We may somewhat normalize over the late spring and summer. The real question will be the fall. But at least this time we should all know how to prepare - we know what it takes to homeschool kids and work from home, we know what items will be in shortages (TP, flour, yeast, disinfetants) which means we can slowly stock up, hospitals have developed protocols and hopefully long-term care homes will as well. But everyone needs to be in it together.
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Old 04-27-2020, 02:23 PM   #682
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flour, yeast
Ugh hopefully people are over their amateur baking hour by then so I can actually find these products again.
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Old 04-27-2020, 02:31 PM   #683
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Ugh hopefully people are over their amateur baking hour by then so I can actually find these products again.
Right?

I always buy 20kg bags of flour directly from a mill - happens to be close to where I live, and flour is amazing and at a great price. So I was inadvertently well stocked as I just bought a new bag in the first week of March. I don't bake much with yeast but I had 9 packets of instant left as well.
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Old 04-27-2020, 02:47 PM   #684
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The silver lining is I was forced to learn proper sourdough on account of the yeast shortage. But I don't always have two full days to devote to bread prep lol.
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Old 04-27-2020, 03:23 PM   #685
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:06 PM   #686
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New Zealand has practically eliminated the virus-new cases are in the single digits. That's amazing.
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Old 04-27-2020, 07:12 PM   #687
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In my state we've had no new cases in ~5 days, active cases down to approx. 20.
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Old 04-27-2020, 07:16 PM   #688
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Germany is going in an excellent direction.

Two days in a row of extremely low case figures in a number of previous hotspots. The hope is that backlogs have cleared out and we're truly seeing the results of social distancing measures at work.

Let's see what the rest of the week brings.
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Old 04-27-2020, 07:19 PM   #689
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I think that it's clear that physical distancing measures are working. No better proof than in the data.

We may somewhat normalize over the late spring and summer. The real question will be the fall. But at least this time we should all know how to prepare - we know what it takes to homeschool kids and work from home, we know what items will be in shortages (TP, flour, yeast, disinfetants) which means we can slowly stock up, hospitals have developed protocols and hopefully long-term care homes will as well. But everyone needs to be in it together.
Well said!
Depending on when we carefully reopen here in NYC (how close to Sept) I'll probably wait several days to a week till I go near any of my usual places a park first (!) take like 2- 3 weeks, month before I dive into fall prep thinking, then actions.

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New Zealand has practically eliminated the virus-new cases are in the single digits. That's amazing.
Wow! How wonderful for them!
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Old 04-27-2020, 08:22 PM   #690
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Germany is going in an excellent direction.

Two days in a row of extremely low case figures in a number of previous hotspots. The hope is that backlogs have cleared out and we're truly seeing the results of social distancing measures at work.

Let's see what the rest of the week brings.


And then there’s us in the states. Trump coming out today talking about tests.

Pence saying it wasn’t 4 million tests completed in the first week of March, it was 4 million to this point in time !! Mission accomplished

There will not be enough testing before November. There’s still no real tracing program. There’s no real isolation program.

Testing is kinda pointless without tracing. Without providing the means to isolate those made contact, we just run tests for the sake of tests.

Trumps narcissistic nature is the worst possible feature for a pandemic. We mean nothing to him. No one does. So the death count could be 60,0000 or 60,000,000. His demeanor wouldn’t change.

We are going to be forced to take a virus-punch in the face. You know he’s counting on this hurting more of potential democratic voters versus his own (and he wouldn’t care about his base anyway, end justify the means). Those of us that can afford to distance will do so, but the majority who cannot are low income and minority based.

He isn’t some brilliant planner of these things but he’s not stupid either. He knows damn well who’ll be hurt the most guy this. And even if he doesn’t, Stephen Miller does
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Old 04-27-2020, 09:27 PM   #691
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The US only reported an increase of 1,600 active cases in the last 24 hours because we've been reporting so many recoveries. That's the smallest increase since the middle of March.

It's going to SUCK when everyone reopens too quickly and everything regresses. This is the first day in a long time that we haven't seen significant progress in active cases.
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Old 04-27-2020, 09:33 PM   #692
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The US only reported an increase of 1,600 active cases in the last 24 hours because we've been reporting so many recoveries. That's the smallest increase since the middle of March.

It's going to SUCK when everyone reopens too quickly and everything regresses. This is the first day in a long time that we haven't seen significant progress in active cases.


In fairness to “flattening the curve,” the end game is quite literally to get enough people infected in that regime such that the virus runs out of viable hosts. In theory, any attempts to eliminate the virus a la New Zealand are sort of futile and foolish, unless a country like New Zealand plans on keeping its borders closed for the foreseeable few years until a vaccine is deployable.

Note that I’m not advocating for an early reopening. Just thinking about it from a functional perspective... we should be trying to control the infection rate, rather than stop it entirely. At that, I think travel is arguably worse than reopening of business. That is to say, crossing of communities is likely what reseeds infections and spurs outbreaks.
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Old 04-27-2020, 10:43 PM   #693
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Global Pandemic Part II: Sequel Escalation

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In fairness to “flattening the curve,” the end game is quite literally to get enough people infected in that regime such that the virus runs out of viable hosts.
That is only possible if there is some sort of immunity with this virus which we still don't seem to know. If turns out to be true that the virus mutates more quickly than anticipated and that different strains cause different viral loads and severity of illness, then we won't run out of hosts. And we are hooped.

Edit to add that I'm also not advocating for lifting lockdown measures quickly especially with so much unknown. Just that we may not have an end game here any time soon.
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Old 04-27-2020, 10:50 PM   #694
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That is only possible if there is some sort of immunity with this virus which we still don't seem to know. If turns out to be true that the virus mutates more quickly than anticipated and that different strains cause different viral loads and severity of illness, then we won't run out of hosts. And we are hooped.

Edit to add that I'm also not advocating for lifting lockdown measures quickly especially with so much unknown. Just that we may not have an end game here any time soon.


Oh yes, and I keep on saying... this is a race to a treatment, through and through. Cause it probably isn’t going away any time soon, even if you’re trying to operate at capacity.
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Old 04-27-2020, 11:00 PM   #695
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In fairness to “flattening the curve,” the end game is quite literally to get enough people infected in that regime such that the virus runs out of viable hosts. In theory, any attempts to eliminate the virus a la New Zealand are sort of futile and foolish, unless a country like New Zealand plans on keeping its borders closed for the foreseeable few years until a vaccine is deployable.

Note that I’m not advocating for an early reopening. Just thinking about it from a functional perspective... we should be trying to control the infection rate, rather than stop it entirely. At that, I think travel is arguably worse than reopening of business. That is to say, crossing of communities is likely what reseeds infections and spurs outbreaks.
I'm 100% with you that travel is a huge mistake right now. Additionally, we need to keep working from home as much as possible because...and this may be an unpopular opinion...I really think crowded indoor workplaces are more of a petri dish than sunny beaches. The situation in Singapore seems to suggest as much.
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Old 04-27-2020, 11:00 PM   #696
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Oh yes, and I keep on saying... this is a race to a treatment, through and through. Cause it probably isn’t going away any time soon, even if you’re trying to operate at capacity.

Agreed. Though I'm not very hopeful on that front either, we don't even know how it kills us. It'll take a while to find an effective treatment. Our track record is not great either, though every once in a while there's a breakthrough like the new(ish) Hep C cure.
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Old 04-28-2020, 08:25 AM   #697
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Old 04-28-2020, 08:35 AM   #698
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Old 04-28-2020, 08:49 AM   #699
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Old 04-28-2020, 10:50 AM   #700
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My immunocompromised parents (who I have not seen in two months) are already floating the idea of our family getting back together for Mother's Day. To this point, they've been very responsible about social distancing. But now they're making plans that involve me and my brother coming in from a much more significant hotspot than their suburban city. The idea of rushing back is already sinking in for people.
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