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Old 04-08-2020, 06:47 PM   #201
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:25 PM   #202
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Thanks. Yep my son and I both are in 14 day quarantine. I’m lucky enough to work from home and don’t have a loss of income but still scary.
Good luck my friend; Both you and my son are in my prayers
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:46 AM   #203
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It's subtle, but you can see the deceleration of new cases happening a little at a time. It took three weeks for shit to get completely out of hand all over the world and it could take just as long to see an obvious improvement, but a lot of (non-US) countries are seeing positive results from their efforts.

And it's not just new cases. The growth rate in COVID-19 deaths worldwide was between 10-14% every day for three straight weeks, but this week we've seen that number drop to around 8% and as low as 7%. It doesn't seem like much, but we haven't seen a growth rate that low since March 14. Not even once. Three days in the last seven have posted a drop in deaths from the previous day, whereas before it was primarily a steady climb upward.

Lockdowns are dreary and have an enormous economic impact but they are working. It's incredibly unfortunate that the US wasn't more unified in its approach. We could have saved many lives and created a reliable timeline for recovery.
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:58 AM   #204
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Global Pandemic Part II: Sequel Escalation

My concern is the models don’t account for Trump.

The man will absolutely fuck things up by telling the nation it’s free to go back to work.

Will that have as big of an impact in CA or WA, states that have done really well with their response....i don’t think so (but plenty of people would break the SD)

It’s the Red states that would throw a giant party and we’d see infections rising again.

I am also concerned that the US will scale down testing to try and fudge the numbers. “See!!! New cases are dropping. Open it up!!”

Example


https://twitter.com/npratc/status/12...376549888?s=21
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:52 AM   #205
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Damn. Best of luck, mikal. Hopefully you all get through this without any serious issues.
Same. Sending positive vibes to you and your family, Mikal.
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:19 AM   #206
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All the best to everyone who is or may be infected, and their loved ones!

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My concern is the models don’t account for Trump.

The man will absolutely fuck things up by telling the nation it’s free to go back to work.

Will that have as big of an impact in CA or WA, states that have done really well with their response....i don’t think so (but plenty of people would break the SD)

It’s the Red states that would throw a giant party and we’d see infections rising again.

I am also concerned that the US will scale down testing to try and fudge the numbers. “See!!! New cases are dropping. Open it up!!”

Example


https://twitter.com/npratc/status/12...376549888?s=21
I wonder if the Administration has already considered the Turkmenistan approach: Just ban the use of the word from any official publications, communications etc. (I couldn't verify if people really have been arrested for saying the word in public).

First results of an interesting study have just been published from a small town in the west of Germany, where after a carnival celebration the first major outbreak of Covid-19 in Germany occured.
These two tweets summarize the most important findings I guess:


Quote:
2. They found #COVID19 virus in 2% of the study population (only 500 subjects so far) but #COVID19 antibodies in 14% which means that 14% must have been infected and are now immune
The #COVID19 mortality rate in this German county was approximately 0.37 percent if one takes into account all the infected people including those which were asymptomatic and did not know they were #COVID19 positive
https://twitter.com/jalees_rehman/st...60735110692864

Quote:
5/n Importantly, the Preliminary Results & Conclusions of the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study are drawn from only @ 500 people (out of a total of @ 1,000 people in the study, out of @ 12.5k inhabitants).
9/n The mortality rate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate) for the whole population of #Gangelt is at 0.15 % at this time.
10/ Overall in Germany: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven". #SARSCov2 was detected by PCR on "remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles" BUT NOT in infectious form.
11c/ What IS dangerous is people. The entire #COVID19 outbreak in #Heinsberg district is traced back to a couple who attended a local Karneval festival. It all kicked off from there.
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1248245914474409985
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:32 AM   #207
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Very interesting German stats, thank you for sharing.

It's clear to any thinking person that physical distancing measures are working, and working well. And that any kind of reopening of the economy must be done in phases. I think it would be very difficult mentally and emotionally for people to spend weeks in lockdown, then a premature opening happens, and 2 months later they are back in the same lockdown as wave 2 hits. Compliance rates would likely be lower as well.

The other thing that has always struck me as disturbing about those promoting herd immunity is the long term effects. Roughly 20% of those infected come down with pneumonia and a fraction of those will end up on ventilators and/or die. But the ones who survive appear to have sustained (and potentially lifelong, impossible to tell at this stage) lung damage. Herd immunity given Ro has been predicted to be in the 50-70% range. Even if you take the low end of 50% of your entire population needing to be infected, 20% of 50% is a lot of people who could potentially have significant changes to their quality of life, not to mention the pulmonary burden on the healthcare system. If somebody told you that if you got infected, you had possibly as high as a 20% chance of developing permanent lung damage, would you take that chance? Or try to sit it out and wait for a vaccine? I know what my answer would be...
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:08 PM   #208
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Yes, thanks for that info Vincent.
If the virus is not infectious on surfaces that could alleviate a lot of tension (and folks sanitizing their grocery packaging etc. when they get it home). Hope that is indeed the case.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:10 PM   #209
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Those German stats are fascinating, especially spread on surfaces, but the author probably undersells the transmissibility of the virus in his conclusions. A similar Icelandic study found that 50% of the study population had the virus, a far cry from 15%. We need more examples and a broader range to make solid conclusions about asymptomatic cases.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:15 PM   #210
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Those German stats are fascinating, especially spread on surfaces, but the author probably undersells the transmissibility of the virus in his conclusions. A similar Icelandic study found that 50% of the study population had the virus, a far cry from 15%. We need more examples and a broader range to make solid conclusions about asymptomatic cases.
None of the studies so far are convincing in this regard because they are either too small (i.e. too few people) or located in places that are not representative of your average, whatever that may be. For example, the Italian study that showed a 40% infection rate was done in a region/town with one of the highest infection rates, so of course it's not particularly helpful.
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Old 04-09-2020, 03:20 PM   #211
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Random sampling will have to happen in a lot of different locations and settings to get a better idea, indeed. For example, the people tested in this sample all live in a single town out of an entire district that was the initial Corona hotspot in Germany. So it's not even known how it compares to other communities in the same area. I think there was going to be a study in Munich, but I'd have to look it up. As long as the capacity for testing is so limited, there remains a selection process in place in most localities, which makes it more difficult to determine how the virus really has spread.

Since many people are concerned about touching anything, using public transit etc. I think it's important to figure out how dangerous the virus really is outside of direct human interaction. If more studies confirm that the initial lab results about how long it may survive on surfaces are not borne out in real environments, many people will feel much safer again, e.g. when accepting deliveries or doing grocery shopping. In Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries I also keep seeing trucks spraying desinfectants in the streets or people going through the bazaars spraying everything. My colleagues in Kurdistan suggested spraying an entire refugee camp with desinfectant. I doubt it's that useful, apart from a psychological angle (giving the residents some sense of control knowing all surfaces have been desinfected). But it's a decision of about $3000 per camp per measure. That's a month of food or hygiene supplies for 60 families.

Notwithstanding, I think simulations such as this one are a great way of demonstrating how the virus may travel and hit a large number of people if we aren't careful.
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Old 04-09-2020, 03:38 PM   #212
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Dramatized model, also not very sure that’s accurate.
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:44 PM   #213
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My 2 year old breaks down in hysterics whenever any of us put on a face covering - so that's something new and fun.
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:50 PM   #214
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My 2 year old breaks down in hysterics whenever any of us put on a face covering - so that's something new and fun.
If possible you need to find something that he'll be amused by or find soothing. A Mickey Mouse or a Paw Patrol mask or a John Wall mask or similar.
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:06 PM   #215
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If possible you need to find something that he'll be amused by or find soothing. A Mickey Mouse or a Paw Patrol mask or a John Wall mask or similar.
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:09 PM   #216
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Dad wearing a mask of Dad.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:09 PM   #217
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https://www.ft.com/content/04e9c5fe-...c-d8cd9b48e8cf

Excellent article on dramatic rises in cases in Asia (Singapore, Hong Kong) and persistence of COVID-19 in South Korea and Taiwan and an explicit recognition that we're in this holding pattern until a vaccine is developed.

I don't think that many in North America or Europe get this.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:46 PM   #218
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Whenever a tour comes around there's inevitably a thread that opens up about GA lines, making fun of lists and all that. And damn it if I'm not there for that. One of my favorite U2 fan moments was when I narc'd on the list runners at Capital One Arena. Good times, good times.

Anyhoo... inevitably someone always goes down a road where they mock the people who are always up front for having no lives or easy stress free jobs that let them travel everywhere or whatever else. And that annoys me a bit - as I know that's not true, and it's crazy unfair. While I'm sure there are a few who fit that description, some are incredibly hard working people who just make it work every 4 years.

One of these fans that catches a little grief from time to time is a friend of mine. He's also a doctor in Brooklyn. He's been front lines of this thing. His face is literally scarred from over wearing of PPE. Yet he's there night after night after night dealing with this, while we sit home comfortably on our couches.

So some day there will be concerts again. Some day U2 will hit the road again. And when that time comes, inevitably this man, my friend, will find his way on stage. And when that time comes, know that there's a hero of this thing up there.

Then, after that moment of recognition? By all means please go back to making fun of the mom jeans. The man needs an intervention. I've tried.
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:17 PM   #219
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Global Pandemic Part II: Sequel Escalation

Quote:
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https://www.ft.com/content/04e9c5fe-...c-d8cd9b48e8cf

Excellent article on dramatic rises in cases in Asia (Singapore, Hong Kong) and persistence of COVID-19 in South Korea and Taiwan and an explicit recognition that we're in this holding pattern until a vaccine is developed.

I don't think that many in North America or Europe get this.


Trump will declare Mission Accomplished in a few weeks. He will say America is open for business.

Some states will lift restrictions, while other states will not. It won’t really matter. People everywhere will rush out and be in crowds.

Then the infections and hospitalizations will dramatically rise and shutdown will happen again. This part scares me because of the unknown mentality of Americans getting their “freedom” taken away AGAIN.

Today is/was my moms birthday. I’ve accepted that at best i won’t see her for at least a few years. Worst case is easy to guess.

She was a nurse for many many years before moving into a medical foundation company. She’s by no means an expert (and neither am i) but she truly believes a vaccine will be ready by first of the year. She thinks the global effort of doctors/scientists, adjustments in test groups, and technology is different this time.

I said i hope so, but three years time would be a record for a vaccine. Ebola vaccine took over five years.

Singapore shutting down again. Japan having a rise, and even more troubling the 2nd positive tests in Korea means we really don’t know much about this virus or how to handle it.

Reinfection. Bad tests or is there something else going on? Virus is dormant ?

I believe in those countries to do the right thing though.

I honestly don’t see how the USA gets remotely close to a balanced state with Trump.
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Old 04-10-2020, 09:42 AM   #220
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My 2 year old breaks down in hysterics whenever any of us put on a face covering - so that's something new and fun.

Try putting a mask on a stuffed animal and leaving it on, showing the stuffed animal to them all the time. Tim's suggestion of a mask with a kid design on it is good. Etsy has some of those. I shouldn't admit it but I bought one on Etsy with puppies on it, somehow it gave me a bit less anxiety about wearing one
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