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Old 03-17-2020, 08:04 PM   #521
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I’m not sure the “return in the fall” thing is necessarily real. That’s an assumption that it goes away at all, or is impacted by season.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:12 PM   #522
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No one caused this virus on purpose. It's a terrible, natural event.

An honest count of the casualties in a heavily populated country like ours, rather than a dishonest count from dark countries like China and Iran, it's going to be really tough. Overwhelmingly tough.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:13 PM   #523
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I’m not sure the “return in the fall” thing is necessarily real. That’s an assumption that it goes away at all, or is impacted by season.
I'm not either, it's all just speculation at this point. I said if it ever goes away at all.

All I know for sure is that I can't isolate until May, June, July, or beyond. Won't make it through that.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:26 PM   #524
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This is creepy. I've never seen that lobby empty, even at 5 am

https://twitter.com/mickakers/status...113671680?s=19
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:35 PM   #525
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I never said it was fake, I agreed with social distancing, just felt that” tens of thousands may die” a huge overreaction, and still do.
You called it an overreaction.

Your country is going to be the epicentre very soon. It's a total and complete disaster. LOOK AT THE DATA. Your economy is going to tank harder than you can imagine.

I feel sorry for your citizens who are taking this seriously. They are screwed with the rest of you.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:49 PM   #526
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https://twitter.com/dburbach/status/...163184128?s=21


https://twitter.com/dburbach/status/...224909312?s=21

This isn’t going to get better. There’s no adults in the room
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:52 AM   #527
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Fox News changing its tune.

https://twitter.com/thefix/status/12...672380931?s=20
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:37 AM   #528
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Originally Posted by Gzusfrk View Post

I never said it was fake, I agreed with social distancing, just felt that” tens of thousands may die” a huge overreaction, and still do. I know, what I actually said, factual information , etc is rarely important around here.

Factually speaking, most scientists estimate that up to 70% of the population will get infected at some point over the next months. Factually speaking, somewhere between 0.5% and 3.4% of people infected die from the disease.

Of course it is possible that Trump just managed to magically halt the spread of the virus in the US, so that a much lower percentage of Americans will get infected. And maybe he even pulled of the stunning feat of only have healthy individuals get infected, so that save for a few freak deaths everyone comes out fine.

So I made a table (feel free to amend with numbers you deem more realistic, grounded in factual information of course) just to show what a factual hysterical overreaction the statement "tens of thousands may die" is.



I added the 80% bracket, but that is rather unlikely to happen. From the factual statements I read thus far, it seems widespread consensus that it won't affect more than 70% of the population, as by that point herd immunity has been achieved and the virus will die out before finding further hosts. Also, I'd assume the rate of deaths is more likely to remain below three percent, save for a total collapse of the health system in which people just die because treatment is entirely unavailable.

According to this page Italy has a death rate of almost 8%. However, there's a caveat to it: In Italy, every person who contracted Covid-19 and dies will be counted, i.e. even people with other serious health issues in which Covid-19 likely was only an accelerator or fatal complication.
Germany, for example, only counts those people whose death is directly attributed to the Covid-19 infection. I.e. people with other severe conditions often do not get counted.
I don't know which criteria countries such as China or Iran are using, so it's difficult to make comparisons between any two countries.
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:45 AM   #529
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Welp, this is why you shouldn't check your phone if you get up to the the bathroom at night cause now I'm not going to be able to sleep

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/sta...643357696?s=19
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Old 03-18-2020, 04:18 AM   #530
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Originally Posted by Bluer White View Post
No one caused this virus on purpose. It's a terrible, natural event.

An honest count of the casualties in a heavily populated country like ours, rather than a dishonest count from dark countries like China and Iran, it's going to be really tough. Overwhelmingly tough.

Aw, this is cute.
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Old 03-18-2020, 05:02 AM   #531
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Based on those calculations, and considering a number of caveats, Burke calculated that the two months of cleaner air resulting from the coronavirus restrictions has saved the lives of between 1,400 and 4,000 children under 5, and 51,700 to 73,000 adults over 70 in China.

He said that while the cleaner air had likely saved lives, the broader disruption caused by Covid-19 could cause many additional deaths not directly attributable to being infected with the virus -- for example because of declines in economic well-being or the difficulty in accessing health services during the epidemic.
"Does this mean pandemics are good for health? No," he said. "Instead it means that the way our economies operate absent pandemics has massive hidden health costs, and it takes a pandemic to help see that."
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/17/h...ntl/index.html
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Old 03-18-2020, 05:54 AM   #532
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Welp, this is why you shouldn't check your phone if you get up to the the bathroom at night cause now I'm not going to be able to sleep

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/sta...643357696?s=19
Neil Ferguson the lead academic on the paper now has Covid-19 symptoms and is self isolating.
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Old 03-18-2020, 09:51 AM   #533
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We closed the border. Thank the Lord. Americans are not taking this seriously on the whole.
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Old 03-18-2020, 09:56 AM   #534
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Smell ya later, Canada
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Old 03-18-2020, 10:30 AM   #535
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CNN just showed aerial video footage of a crowded beach in Florida from a Florida news station. WFLA. So that's a real thing, unless people think it's old video.

Don't understand why beaches aren't closed there. Because tourist dollars are more important than flattening the curve and human lives? Yes tourism is their economy, but the economy has tanked everywhere. What makes them more special?
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Old 03-18-2020, 10:36 AM   #536
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CNN just showed aerial video footage of a crowded beach in Florida from a Florida news station. WFLA. So that's a real thing, unless people think it's old video.



Don't understand why beaches aren't closed there. Because tourist dollars are more important than flattening the curve and human lives? Yes tourism is their economy, but the economy has tanked everywhere. What makes them more special?


It’s hard to say what video but yes there has been video (aerial at that) that’s been stamped and reused from March 14th.

Again I’m not discounting that it’s appropriate, and I’m not even suggesting it’s not still happening. It sure seems like it is.

What I am suggesting is that this type of news is intentionally misleading you to anger you as a function of clickbait$$$.

If you want to know the answer about the beaches, it probably has nothing to do with tourism and everything to do with Governor Desantis not having ordered a state of emergency / forced any closures.
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Old 03-18-2020, 10:55 AM   #537
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I would guess it's possible that the Gov of FL hasn't done that for many reasons, one of which might include tourist dollars. He might live to regret that.
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Old 03-18-2020, 11:00 AM   #538
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It’s hard to say what video but yes there has been video (aerial at that) that’s been stamped and reused from March 14th.

Again I’m not discounting that it’s appropriate, and I’m not even suggesting it’s not still happening. It sure seems like it is.

What I am suggesting is that this type of news is intentionally misleading you to anger you as a function of clickbait$$$.

If you want to know the answer about the beaches, it probably has nothing to do with tourism and everything to do with Governor Desantis not having ordered a state of emergency / forced any closures.
No difference between March 14th and March 18th. Or March pick a day. Crowds of people shouldn't be on beaches, no matter how selfish and oblivious they may be. It's time to believe this stuff and behave accordingly.
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Old 03-18-2020, 11:02 AM   #539
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US Surgeon General says assume you're infected and behave accordingly. How I behave affects the health of others. That's the reality.
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Old 03-18-2020, 11:03 AM   #540
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US Surgeon General says assume you're infected and behave accordingly. How I behave affects the health of others. That's the reality.


The selfishness of so many people who are not following this advice is astounding.
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