February 5, 2008 Super Tuesday

Strongbow · 02-01-2008, 07:45 PM

Well, I think McCain is going to beat Romney in 18 of the 21 States in the Republican primaries on Tuesday based on the polling I have seen. There has even been some talk that Romney might not win Massachusetts although I've not seen any polling that would show that, with most polls showing Romney with a 20 point lead. I wonder if Romney will continue if McCain has a victory that large. There is a chance the Republican race for the nomination could be over next week.

With the Democrats, Obama is really coming on strong. In the latest Gallup poll he is only 3 percentage points behind Clinton in the national poll after trailing her by 15 to 20 points for most of the past few months. California has also really tightened with Clinton only ahead by 3 points. Obama has huge leads in Georgia and Illinois. Still most states still have Clinton ahead. There could be a tie between Clinton and Obama on Tuesday insuring that the race will go on much longer. Obama's greater fund raising then starts to become more of a factor. To difficult to say who will eventually win, but if Clinton can do better than expected on Tuesday then that could stop Obama's rise and put her on the right track to win the nomination.

2861U2 · 02-01-2008, 07:54 PM

McCain will definitely do very well. He'll be very close to 1,191 at the end of the night. He'll take the big states of Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and at least half of California. I would guess he'd be only a couple hundred delegates away, which he'll easily get in Ohio or Texas or Pennslyvania later.

The Democratic race is much closer. I think Hillary will get more of California than Obama. I think she'll get more delegates by the end of the night, though I'd be very surprised if either of them has a lead of larger than 250 or so by the end of the night.

U2democrat · 02-01-2008, 08:19 PM

I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.

Slipstream · 02-01-2008, 08:21 PM

The Gallup poll had 3% but....

Fox - 10%
Rasmussen - 6%
NBC/Wall Street - 15%
LA Times/Bloomberg - 9%

deep · 02-01-2008, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by U2democrat
I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.

then what?

U2democrat · 02-01-2008, 08:40 PM

I'm not going to make a prediction that far off.

I may be an Obama supporter but that's not going to blind me from reality and rational thought. Odds are I think Hillary will get the nom. That doesn't make me happy but that's what I realistically believe.

2861U2 · 02-01-2008, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by U2democrat
I'm not going to make a prediction that far off.

I may be an Obama supporter but that's not going to blind me from reality and rational thought. Odds are I think Hillary will get the nom. That doesn't make me happy but that's what I realistically believe.

Weird. I'm the opposite. If I had to bet, I would pick Obama at the moment.

U2democrat · 02-01-2008, 08:58 PM

After New Hampshire I'm not going to take polls and momentum for granted.

anitram · 02-01-2008, 09:23 PM

Realistically, the momentum is on Obama's side. Whether he has time to change what I think the outcome will be remains to be seen.

Irvine511 · 02-01-2008, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by U2democrat
I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.

agreed on both points.

there are more than enough Republicans who loathe Bush to give McCain the nomination.

INDY500 · 02-01-2008, 10:41 PM

Huckabee wins as many states as Romney.

BVS · 02-01-2008, 10:54 PM

INDY, you a Huck fan?

INDY500 · 02-01-2008, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar
INDY, you a Huck fan?

There are several states that favor Huckabee. Georgia, Oklahoma and of coarse Arkansas. I can see Huckabee as a lot of things but president of the United States is currently not one of them.

BVS · 02-01-2008, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by INDY500

I can see Huckabee as a lot of things but president of the United States is currently not one of them.

This we agree...

See? I'm just trying to find a way to unite...

INDY500 · 02-01-2008, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar

This we agree...

See? I'm just trying to find a way to unite...

Strongbow · 02-02-2008, 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Irvine511

agreed on both points.

there are more than enough Republicans who loathe Bush to give McCain the nomination.

The vast majority of Republicans support Bush and McCain has been the biggest supporter of Bush's Iraq policy over the past year, so this support for McCain is definitely not some revolt within the Republican party against the Bush administration.

**Diemen** · 02-02-2008, 04:34 AM

How dare you suggest that people don't like Bush, Irvine.

maycocksean · 02-02-2008, 05:51 AM

^Staggers the imagination doesn't it. . .

verte76 · 02-02-2008, 07:54 AM

I don't pay any attention to polls.

verte76 · 02-02-2008, 07:57 AM

I don't want Huckabee for President.

02-01-2008, 07:45 PM	#1
Strongbow Refugee Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,943 Local Time: 08:44 AM	February 5, 2008 Super Tuesday Well, I think McCain is going to beat Romney in 18 of the 21 States in the Republican primaries on Tuesday based on the polling I have seen. There has even been some talk that Romney might not win Massachusetts although I've not seen any polling that would show that, with most polls showing Romney with a 20 point lead. I wonder if Romney will continue if McCain has a victory that large. There is a chance the Republican race for the nomination could be over next week. With the Democrats, Obama is really coming on strong. In the latest Gallup poll he is only 3 percentage points behind Clinton in the national poll after trailing her by 15 to 20 points for most of the past few months. California has also really tightened with Clinton only ahead by 3 points. Obama has huge leads in Georgia and Illinois. Still most states still have Clinton ahead. There could be a tie between Clinton and Obama on Tuesday insuring that the race will go on much longer. Obama's greater fund raising then starts to become more of a factor. To difficult to say who will eventually win, but if Clinton can do better than expected on Tuesday then that could stop Obama's rise and put her on the right track to win the nomination. __________________

02-01-2008, 07:54 PM	#2
2861U2 Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: watching the Cubs Posts: 4,303 Local Time: 03:44 AM	McCain will definitely do very well. He'll be very close to 1,191 at the end of the night. He'll take the big states of Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and at least half of California. I would guess he'd be only a couple hundred delegates away, which he'll easily get in Ohio or Texas or Pennslyvania later. The Democratic race is much closer. I think Hillary will get more of California than Obama. I think she'll get more delegates by the end of the night, though I'd be very surprised if either of them has a lead of larger than 250 or so by the end of the night. __________________

02-02-2008, 07:57 AM	#20
verte76 Blue Crack Addict Join Date: May 2002 Location: hoping for changes Posts: 23,331 Local Time: 08:44 AM	I don't want Huckabee for President. __________________

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02-01-2008, 08:19 PM	#3
U2democrat Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: England by way of 'Murica. Posts: 22,142 Local Time: 08:44 AM	I say McCain will come out as the nominee. Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.

02-01-2008, 08:21 PM	#4
Slipstream Refugee Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: British Columbia Posts: 1,474 Local Time: 01:44 AM	The Gallup poll had 3% but.... Fox - 10% Rasmussen - 6% NBC/Wall Street - 15% LA Times/Bloomberg - 9%

02-01-2008, 08:40 PM	#6
U2democrat Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: England by way of 'Murica. Posts: 22,142 Local Time: 08:44 AM	I'm not going to make a prediction that far off. I may be an Obama supporter but that's not going to blind me from reality and rational thought. Odds are I think Hillary will get the nom. That doesn't make me happy but that's what I realistically believe.

02-01-2008, 08:58 PM	#8
U2democrat Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: England by way of 'Murica. Posts: 22,142 Local Time: 08:44 AM	After New Hampshire I'm not going to take polls and momentum for granted.

02-01-2008, 09:23 PM	#9
anitram Blue Crack Addict Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: NY Posts: 18,918 Local Time: 04:44 AM	Realistically, the momentum is on Obama's side. Whether he has time to change what I think the outcome will be remains to be seen.

02-01-2008, 10:41 PM	#11
INDY500 Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: The American Resistance Posts: 4,754 Local Time: 02:44 AM	Huckabee wins as many states as Romney.

02-01-2008, 10:54 PM	#12
BVS Blue Crack Supplier Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: between my head and heart Posts: 41,232 Local Time: 03:44 AM	INDY, you a Huck fan?

02-02-2008, 04:34 AM	#17
Diemen Resident Photo Buff Forum Moderator Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Somewhere in middle America Posts: 13,685 Local Time: 03:44 AM	How dare you suggest that people don't like Bush, Irvine.

02-02-2008, 05:51 AM	#18
maycocksean Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Ohio Posts: 4,911 Local Time: 04:44 AM	^Staggers the imagination doesn't it. . .

02-02-2008, 07:54 AM	#19
verte76 Blue Crack Addict Join Date: May 2002 Location: hoping for changes Posts: 23,331 Local Time: 08:44 AM	I don't pay any attention to polls.