Thought this was interesting.
Religious Voting Data Show Some Shift, Observers Say
By LAURIE GOODSTEIN
New York Times, November 9, 2006
Ever since George W. Bush won a second term two years ago by relying on the turnout of his religious conservative base, Democrats have been intent on siphoning off religious voters. Some liberal religious advocates proclaimed yesterday that the Democratic sweep showed that their party had succeeded in closing what they called the God Gap. But the results are more mixed than that, according to experts who analyze trends among religious voters.
Defying predictions of widespread disillusionment, white evangelical and born-again Christians did not desert Republican Congressional candidates and they did not stay home, nationwide exit polls show. When it came to turnout, white evangelicals and born-again Christians made up about 24% of those who voted, compared with 23% in the 2004 election. And 70% of those white evangelical and born-again Christians voted for Republican Congressional candidates nationally, also little changed from the 72% who voted for such candidates in 2004.
But in some states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democratic Senate candidates who intentionally tried to appeal to religious voters did succeed at winning back a significant percentage of Roman Catholics and white mainline Protestants. Ted Strickland, the newly elected governor of Ohio, is a Methodist minister who spoke openly about his faith, and Bob Casey, the victor in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, is a Catholic opposed to abortion. They also won over some less religiously active voters, those who attend church once a month or less.
Never before in any election had the religious left been so organized and so active. They held rallies and passed out hundreds of thousands of voter guides, all with the message that religious conservatives’ traditional agenda of opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage was too narrow. With the help of religious liberals, six states passed ballot initiatives calling for a raise in the minimum wage. In Ohio, voters elected all four state board of education candidates who opposed the teaching of intelligent design, and victories like that gave religious liberals cause to proclaim the end of the right’s dominance of religious voters.
In Colorado and seven other states, voters approved constitutional amendments defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman. Arizona was the only state in which such an amendment was defeated. Yet religious conservatives were reeling yesterday. The Rev. Troy Newman, president of the anti-abortion Operation Rescue, called Election Day Bloody Tuesday because of a string of defeats. Among them were a sweeping initiative in South Dakota that would have outlawed most abortions; a proposition in California that would have required parents to be notified when minors have abortions; and the attorney general in Kansas, Phill Kline, who has investigated abortion clinics. Mr. Newman said that many religious leaders he knew had remained silent or had endorsed Democrats. “The pulpits of America bear responsibility,” he said. “I believe God will hold them accountable for that.”
The shifts in the Catholic vote were the most noteworthy. In Ohio, according to exit polls, Democrats picked up 20% more of that constituency than they had in 2000; in Pennsylvania, they picked up 11% more. The comparison is not exact, however, because 2000 involved a presidential election, not a midterm election. (Comparisons of evangelical voters are unreliable because exit poll questions designed to identify evangelicals changed from one election to another.)
Some exit poll data (Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International) on who voted what:
All Protestants -- 45% Democrat, 55% Republican
White Evangelical Christians -- 29% Democrat, 71% Republican
All Catholics -- 56% Democrat, 44% Republican
Jews -- 88% Democrat, 12% Republican
Gay and Lesbian -- 75% Democrat, 25% Republican
All Women -- 56% Democrat, 44% Republican
All Men -- 52% Democrat, 48% Republican
All White -- 48% Democrat, 52% Republican
All Black -- 89% Democrat, 11% Republican
All Hispanic -- 70% Democrat, 30% Republican
Did Not Complete High School -- 64% Democrat, 36% Republican
High School Grad -- 56% Democrat, 44% Republican
College Graduate -- 50% Democrat, 50% Republican
Graduate Degree -- 59% Democrat, 41% Republican
Household Income Under $15,000 -- 69% Democrat, 31% Republican
Household Income $30,000-$49,999 -- 57% Democrat, 43% Republican
Household Income $75,000-$99,999 -- 52% Democrat, 48% Republican
Household Income $100,000+ -- 48% Democrat, 52% Republican
