Election Postmortem

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BonosSaint

Rock n' Roll Doggie
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POSTMORTEM

What do you think are the one or two top reasons the GOP lost so many voters this time around? Not whether or not they should have but why they did. FYM analysis time.
 
Iraq
Overreaching power/corruption


It scared off the Independents who broke for the Democrats, and traditional Republicans were pissed off at the way their own party was getting off track.
 
Iraq
Sandals/corruption

no brainer. Also reflected in the exits, which surprised everyone by showing corruption as the no. 1 issue over Iraq.

Also running more conservative Democrats in areas where that seemed necessary. Case in point: Bob Casey in PA, or Webb in VA.
 
People thinking since they are not happy with what they have anything would be better.

In the filthy smear campaign, Webb was able to destroy Allen with more ammo than Allen was able to uncover and use against him. You should have seen the overkill in commercials, some played back to back, some even repeated a few minutes later. In my opinion neither of these men deserved to win. Same with the mess in Tennessee.
 
Since my own state (Indiana) has been fairly widely noted in media "postmortems" as one textbook example of an about-face and I think some of the relevant factors there are distinct, I'll list those separately.


Nationally

1) Iraq. Not just that it's dragged on longer and with more complications than much of the electorate anticipated, but also the perception that the Administration's response to this has been characterized by "Everything's fine--we're doing everything as well as could be expected no matter what certain generals say, and how dare anyone be so traitorous as to suggest otherwise."

2) Dismay at perceived increases in political corruption--Abramoff, Foley et al., as well as growing consternation that we may be straying dangerously outside the bounds of international ethical norms as recognized by our allies with regard to certain policies implemented as part of GWOT (treatment of detainees, circumventions of normal judicial process as entailed by parts of the Patriot Act, etc.).


Locally

1) Dissatisfaction with an atypically (in terms of state precedent) conservative Republican governor. Many Republican governors were voted out this election.

2) Increasing distrust of hard-core ideologues of whatever stripe. It is noteworthy of most of the representatives who were elected here this time around, Republican or Democrat, that they were moderates or sought to present themselves as such.
 
Butterscotch said:
People thinking since they are not happy with what they have anything would be better.

In the filthy smear campaign, Webb was able to destroy Allen with more ammo than Allen was able to uncover and use against him. In my opinion neither of these men deserved to win. Same with the mess in Tennessee.

Actually Allen had more ammo than Webb, he just used it against himself :lol:
 
U2democrat said:


Actually Allen had more ammo than Webb, he just used it against himself :lol:

I know, but I'm sure he tried his best to dig up whatever he could! Allen also stepped in a lot of dog piles on his own, and this was used against him.
 
Webb really didn't dig up that much on Allen. He ran against the Iraq war and President Bush's policies of which Allen supported 96% of the time, Webb really did stick to the issues. It was the Allen camp and the media who dug up the dirt.


Edited to add: The Webb campaign was horribly managed, there was little to no organization, they had terrible outreach, and despite all this they still managed to win.
 
BonosSaint said:
POSTMORTEM

What do you think are the one or two top reasons the GOP lost so many voters this time around? Not whether or not they should have but why they did. FYM analysis time.

I want to say Iraq because I think that is the general topic of interest among voters. However, it's not just us being there I think. I think it is about how the situation is being handled, and a lot of the scary outcomes.

I think what I mean to say is not just the American presence in the war, but the sub-issues that resulted, for example the mental and health effects of the many soldiers that have returned, the big torture scandal, and so many more that I just can't remember right now.
 
I heard part of Bush's comments yesterday regarding a message to the front lines. I was totally dismayed to hear his remarks and their implications.

"Amid this time of change, I have a message for those on the front lines: To our enemies, do not be joyful. Do not confuse the workings of our democracy with a lack of will. Our nation is committed to bringing you to justice. Liberty and democracy are the source of America's strength, and liberty and democracy will lift up the hopes and desires of those you are trying to destroy.

To the people of Iraq: Do not be fearful. As you take the difficult steps toward democracy and peace, America's going to stand with you. We know you want a better way of life, and now is the time to seize it.

To our brave men and women in uniform: Don't be doubtful. America will always support you."

My read on this is that he is implying the terrorists are supporting the Democrats thus making the Democrats the choice of terrorists. Also, telling the troops not to be doubtful about support, voting against the Republicans is not supporting the troops. Ridiculous!

Howard Dean deserves a lot of credit for orchestrating this Democrat comeback too. Believe it or not!!
 
trevster2k said:


My read on this is that he is implying the terrorists are supporting the Democrats thus making the Democrats the choice of terrorists. Also, telling the troops not to be doubtful about support, voting against the Republicans is not supporting the troops. Ridiculous!

yep, vote GOP or your babies will be eaten by terrorists.

isn't that how bush got re-elected?
 
trevster2k said:
I heard part of Bush's comments yesterday regarding a message to the front lines. I was totally dismayed to hear his remarks and their implications.

"Amid this time of change, I have a message for those on the front lines: To our enemies, do not be joyful. Do not confuse the workings of our democracy with a lack of will. Our nation is committed to bringing you to justice. Liberty and democracy are the source of America's strength, and liberty and democracy will lift up the hopes and desires of those you are trying to destroy.

To the people of Iraq: Do not be fearful. As you take the difficult steps toward democracy and peace, America's going to stand with you. We know you want a better way of life, and now is the time to seize it.

To our brave men and women in uniform: Don't be doubtful. America will always support you."

My read on this is that he is implying the terrorists are supporting the Democrats thus making the Democrats the choice of terrorists. Also, telling the troops not to be doubtful about support, voting against the Republicans is not supporting the troops. Ridiculous!

Howard Dean deserves a lot of credit for orchestrating this Democrat comeback too. Believe it or not!!

He is such an ass. The only ones who are fearful and doubtful (about this election) is himself and his corrupt blood/oil hungry cabinet.
 
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I think out of control spending and huge deficits also swung some independents.

U2democrat said:
Webb really didn't dig up that much on Allen. He ran against the Iraq war and President Bush's policies of which Allen supported 96% of the time, Webb really did stick to the issues. It was the Allen camp and the media who dug up the dirt.


Edited to add: The Webb campaign was horribly managed, there was little to no organization, they had terrible outreach, and despite all this they still managed to win.

The DNCC also ran a lot of ads. So a lot of the negativity was from them. I thought the outeach was good. I received both phone calls and flyers.
 
I've voted straight ticket Republican in the past and this time, they lost my votes because I've seen nothing that compels me to vote in their favor and I've heard no plans for the future that mean anything to me. At least where I live, all they talked about was Iraq, gay marriage, abortion....when the things I care about are education, health care, individual rights, JOBS, etc.

Honestly it wasn't about Iraq for me, but pretty much everything else they ignored that they shouldn't have and everything they preached about that I don't think are any of their business.
 
I subscribe to Sojo, and this is an article by Jim Wallis that I got today.

A Defeat for the Religious Right and the Secular Left

In this election, both the Religious Right and the secular Left were defeated, and the voice of the moral center was heard. A significant number of candidates elected are social conservatives on issues of life and family, economic populists, and committed to a new direction in Iraq. This is the way forward: a grand new alliance between liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, one that can end partisan gridlock and involves working together for real solutions to pressing problems.

It is clear from the election results that moderate, and some conservative, Christians - especially evangelicals and Catholics - want a moral agenda that is broader than only abortion and same-sex marriage. Various exit polls showed a shift of 6% to 16% fewer evangelicals and Catholics supporting Republican candidates than in 2004. Poverty, the war in Iraq, strengthening families, and protecting the environment are all moral values. And many Americans this year voted all of their values.

One of the central issues in this election was the continuing violence and death in Iraq. As of this week, 2,836 Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have died in this disastrous war. The people have now spoken, and there is a mandate to change the course of U.S. policy in Iraq. The president acknowledged this yesterday with his announcement of the resignation of Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, and his recognition that the country needs a fresh perspective in the Defense Department. We believe that the first order of business for the new Congress and the administration must be determining alternatives to the current disastrous course.

Voters also recognized that while the economy is in good shape for some, there are still too many being left out, especially working families. It is significant that in all six states where an initiative to raise the minimum wage was on the ballot, it passed, in most cases by overwhelming margins. Congress and the administration must now pass a federal minimum wage increase that will benefit all working people in America.
 
what's really sad the dems have no real plan for iraq.

so, the team with no plan won over the team that had a plan that wasn't working well.

imagine the trouncing the dems woulda enjoyed if they had unity and a real plan.

sadly to get beat this bad by an opponent with no better plan is like having a cold glass of water tossed in the face.

and i know about these things, a great many things i do know, having experience much in my youth.

dbs
 
diamond said:
what's really sad the dems have no real plan for iraq.

so, the team with no plan won over the team that had a plan that wasn't working well.

I wouldn't say "no plan" for all Democrats.
From Jim Webb's website:

We should say clearly to the people of Iraq and of the region that we have no plans for a long-term presence in that country. This will take the moral high ground away from the insurgency in the eyes of the Muslim world, and defuse the concern of some Iraqis that we plan to stay for good. This will also put the Iraqi government on notice that it cannot wait forever to stand up before we will stand down. We should not build permanent bases in Iraq. If we’re leaving, we don’t need them, and it sends the wrong message. In the short term, we could move our troops out of the country but within the region – strong possibilities could be Jordan and Kuwait. This would give us the ability to contain the terrorist threat within Iraq without continuing our occupation. From there, we could then bring them home when we’re sure the withdrawal is working. Congress should make sure of this by banning any expenditure for permanent bases in Iraq.

The second step would be for us to begin immediate discussions with those countries that are culturally and historically invested in Iraq, and arguably aligned with us, to become overtly involved in a diplomatic solution, taking responsibility at some level for future stability among Iraq’s competing factions. This is do-able. Quite frankly, it will be more difficult in the wake of our failure to take similar steps during the early stages of the recent events in Lebanon. As you might recall, during the first days of that action, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Bahrain all condemned Hezbollah, as did the Beirut government, for inciting the Israeli attacks. By not taking advantage of those gestures, we lost a great opportunity to bring some long-term stability in both situations. But, we should continue to pursue these sorts of solutions, just as we should work to break Syria apart from its unnatural alliance with Iran through direct discussions – something this Administration, with the strong support of George Allen, has refused to do.
 
Nice little related story from this part of the world - newspaper reporting that Bono, Eddie Vedder, their respective bandmates and members of Kings of Leon (all currently on tour here in Sydney) spent Wednesday night (Sydney time) at a downtown bar with CNN on, cheering on the results from the US as they came through.
 
diamond said:
what's really sad the dems have no real plan for iraq.



what is/was the Republican plan for Iraq?

i mean, other than continue to be unable to provide any sort of security.
 
Dobbs: A big 'hallelujah' for American voters

By Lou Dobbs
CNN

Editor's Note: Lou Dobbs' commentary appears weekly on CNN.com.

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Hallelujah, brothers and sisters. I'm not even sure what "hallelujah" means, but the word just feels right after witnessing what is at the very least an awakening of the power of the people. I'm hopeful that November 7 was also a declaration that middle-class Americans won't be taken for granted by either political party.

This midterm election was a victory for the Democratic Party. Voters rejected the Republican Party out of hand and gave the Senate and the House of Representatives to the Democrats.

Voters chose to overturn our current one-party political structure and returned checks and balance to our government. November 7 also demonstrated that the American electorate is far more discerning and independent-minded than either political party or our elites would like to believe.

While the Democratic Party was the clear winner, I don't believe for even a moment that the Democrats' ideals prevailed over Republican ideals. Election Day was middle-class America's declaration of independence from a Republican-led administration and Congress that for six years has been telling working men and women and their families in this country to shut the f up, listen up and go to hell.

The middle class just returned the favor and demonstrated discernment while delivering their loud message to Washington, D.C.
 
Despite what all the pundits say and what the voters "said" I still can't shake the feeling that the worst is still to come. Bush and Cheney may have a surprise or two for all of us before 2008. An attack on Iran perhaps??? You don't need congress or the senate for that do you? And what if "something" happens involving Iran, Syria or North Korea? I hate to be a pessimist after all this apparent good news but something tells me this whole charade ain't over yet. Call it a gut feeling.
 
my top 7 reasons
1. Iraq, the decision to go to war is looking worse by the day.
2. Iraq, the current plan and the stubborn will to keep that plan.
3. Iraq, the cost and the increasing realization that there may not be a way to win, period.
4. I think there are a lot of true conservatives really upset.
Goldwater/Reagan conservatives, the more libertarian conservatives and I think they either sat this one or out or did a protest vote. Not to mention the religous conservatives who feel that the administration doesn't represent their values in general.

5. When the 'fear card' is off the table, the Dems don't look so bad in comparison, even with a lack of great ideas. the last two Presidential elections were 2 of the closest in U.S. history, yet there has been this mythology built up around this great disparity in politics and how the 'Dems' can't seem to win. Obviously it's a myth, Florida in 2000, Ohio in 2004, it's a proverbial coin flip, and the party not in power is going to reap the benefit when things go sour.

6. Corruption/Hypocrisy

7. The biggest one of all. George W. Bush. He's just incompetent and the lackeys in Congress (many of them) didn't have the balls to stand up to him and his failed policy. He has failed, period. Name one domestic agenda this administration has attacked and succeeded in addressing? He's just a failure in nearly all regards.
That's the truth in my eyes, and I didn't have to call him evil or a liar, either. I don't believe he is. He's just wrong and it's time his policies get a proper check and oversight and he's turned into a lame duck.
 
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