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Old 08-14-2005, 07:39 PM   #21
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Originally posted by STING2


(b) No and the Chinese and Russians would not intervene even if they wanted to. China does not have power projection capablities to fight a war hundreds or thousands of miles from its borders. The old Soviet Union had a border with Iran, but Russia does not and would have to cross through several independent countries and hundreds of miles of rough terrein to be positioned to intervene. Russia's military today is small and their power projection capabilities are a fraction of what the Soviet Union's was. Russia was nearly powerless to support their "Serb brothers" in the Kosovo war back in 1999.
Remember the reaction to the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive strikes and the concern that raised. Sure, by one argument a level headed government may have a right to attack a location or country if they believe an attack from them is imminent (and I don't want to turn this into a 'was Iraq a threat' debate so leave that part well away from this) but the fear was that a precedent was set with little or no guidelines, rules or boundaries as to what constitutes a threat and an agreeable reasoning for launching such an attack. It basically sets up a situation, and this is in part where the failures of Iraq come into the argument (even if you don't think there are failures, there certainly are widely perceived failures that can be used effectively in an argument) because who says what is a threat and what isn't, what evidence or argument is needed, what role does the UN and international community play etc? Apparently no-one knows, so the fear has always been that once the US set that precedent, someone else will jump in and then point the finger back at the US. Lets say the US did take action against Iran. China/Russia may be pissed off by that, but unable to retaliate directly as Sting says. China however, for example, may point to the US supplied missiles etc on Taiwan and say "Threat! Pre-emptive strike necessary as per the US lead and as per the evidence of an aggressive US in recent history!!" and off they go. Messy, no? So while the reality is that China or Russia or whoever depending on the situation could kick up whatever stink they want over Iran, any retaliation over it will probably come elsewhere and will be more to spite the US than anything else. Cool with that Sting? It would be Bush's rules they're playing with. Ridiculously hyperthetical of course, but it's the worry people have or had with the US pre-emptive doctrine, and with how the lead up to the Iraq war went down. China might well be able to build a stronger case for Taiwan as a threat than the US could against Iraq or Iran? The US arming them to the teeth, the US conducting naval training right there, all time. The US happily launching invasions on countries left, right and centre. China may find this threatening? Strike first! The rules now say we can! Not trying to divert the argument, but that's where the issue could lie, not so much in the US and Russia/China clashing directly over Iran, but more a freakin' mess everywhere. Again, not of it is even close to likely, but it's not like 'worst case scenario' type things haven't happened before, and this is the kind of fire that could be played with.


And as an additional scenario type question for Sting - ignoring the Iranian question here, but what if out of nowhere tomorrow, China starts employing the exact same game plan the US used over Iraq, but over Taiwan? Claimed it as an imminent threat that they have a right to get to first? As a starting point, what if China demanded that Taiwan be disarmed?
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Old 08-14-2005, 08:16 PM   #22
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Originally posted by Earnie Shavers


Remember the reaction to the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive strikes and the concern that raised. Sure, by one argument a level headed government may have a right to attack a location or country if they believe an attack from them is imminent (and I don't want to turn this into a 'was Iraq a threat' debate so leave that part well away from this) but the fear was that a precedent was set with little or no guidelines, rules or boundaries as to what constitutes a threat and an agreeable reasoning for launching such an attack. It basically sets up a situation, and this is in part where the failures of Iraq come into the argument (even if you don't think there are failures, there certainly are widely perceived failures that can be used effectively in an argument) because who says what is a threat and what isn't, what evidence or argument is needed, what role does the UN and international community play etc? Apparently no-one knows, so the fear has always been that once the US set that precedent, someone else will jump in and then point the finger back at the US. Lets say the US did take action against Iran. China/Russia may be pissed off by that, but unable to retaliate directly as Sting says. China however, for example, may point to the US supplied missiles etc on Taiwan and say "Threat! Pre-emptive strike necessary as per the US lead and as per the evidence of an aggressive US in recent history!!" and off they go. Messy, no? So while the reality is that China or Russia or whoever depending on the situation could kick up whatever stink they want over Iran, any retaliation over it will probably come elsewhere and will be more to spite the US than anything else. Cool with that Sting? It would be Bush's rules they're playing with. Ridiculously hyperthetical of course, but it's the worry people have or had with the US pre-emptive doctrine, and with how the lead up to the Iraq war went down. China might well be able to build a stronger case for Taiwan as a threat than the US could against Iraq or Iran? The US arming them to the teeth, the US conducting naval training right there, all time. The US happily launching invasions on countries left, right and centre. China may find this threatening? Strike first! The rules now say we can! Not trying to divert the argument, but that's where the issue could lie, not so much in the US and Russia/China clashing directly over Iran, but more a freakin' mess everywhere. Again, not of it is even close to likely, but it's not like 'worst case scenario' type things haven't happened before, and this is the kind of fire that could be played with.


And as an additional scenario type question for Sting - ignoring the Iranian question here, but what if out of nowhere tomorrow, China starts employing the exact same game plan the US used over Iraq, but over Taiwan? Claimed it as an imminent threat that they have a right to get to first? As a starting point, what if China demanded that Taiwan be disarmed?
Very interesting post. I'm going to respond a little later though because I want to keep the thread focused on the first couple of questions and hear some other people's responses to those two basic questions. I'm then going to tally up the poll results and try to sum up in general why it seems people voted the way they did.
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Old 08-14-2005, 09:32 PM   #23
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1. Maybe
2. No
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Old 08-14-2005, 09:36 PM   #24
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If we were in direct war against China, wouldn't there be significant negative impacts on our economy considering EVERYTHING is 'made in china'.

Even if we have the right to take military action, it would hurt us so much and we would be defeated economically.

The Chinese are also buy LOTS of our debt. If they stopped this, our nation would plunge into a depression that may be the Greater Depression.
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Old 08-15-2005, 12:59 AM   #25
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Re: China VS. Taiwan

Quote:
Originally posted by STING2
1) Do you believe Taiwan has the right to officially declare its independence from China?
Yes I do, I think that until China is able to improve it's human rights and political freedoms the One China policy will be inherently repressive.
Quote:
2) If China attempts to invade Taiwan(regardless of whether Taiwan had declared independence or not), do you support US and international military intervention to stop China?
I think that any limited war with China risks escelation, there are to many lives in the balance for war ~ the cost / benefit ratio is not there. As for if they would do it, I seriously doubt it, the cost in trade alone don't exactly make war cost effective.
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Old 08-15-2005, 04:37 AM   #26
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1) Yes

2) Yes, the US is the only thing that could prevent the elimination of Taiwan
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Old 08-15-2005, 05:07 AM   #27
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What if the cost of defending Taiwan from assimilation militarily exceeds that of other means. Could a covertly backed insurgency campaign against China be used instead? The heavy handed response that the Chinese would have towards it could be used to get a united front internationally for Taiwanese independence.

All hypothetical of course but any direct military action could lead to carnage beyond total war. Australia would honour it's ANZUS treaty and support the US if it ever came to such a situation but with two major powers squaring off with nuclear weapons as a strategic option things could get very nasty.

I would much prefer economic engagement with China leading to a softening of positions, if a greater middle class can be allowed to emerge internally then I think that the chances of war - as remote as they are - will decrease even furthur.

As far as pre-emption goes, China already has Weapons of Mass Destruction, it has controls on those weapons, it is a signatory to it is a target of Islamist terrorists, it is authoritarian to be sure but there has been slight softening on that front (although the sight of female protestors skulls blasted out across dirty ground do not make me enamoured towards the PLA).

Unless the situations in the world changed drastically I cannot see war being in the interests of anybody.
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Old 08-15-2005, 05:14 AM   #28
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Quote:
And as an additional scenario type question for Sting - ignoring the Iranian question here, but what if out of nowhere tomorrow, China starts employing the exact same game plan the US used over Iraq, but over Taiwan? Claimed it as an imminent threat that they have a right to get to first? As a starting point, what if China demanded that Taiwan be disarmed?
I do not think that the conditions that are needed to justify intervention such as violations of international law and the convergence of strategic interests and benefit exist for such a move to be approved. Taiwan is not a rougue state.
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Old 08-15-2005, 06:54 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally posted by BonosSaint

Nasty can of worms we're opening up
here since I think China may be the next superpower.
c.) Yes.
China already is a superpower. Several countries around the world are considered so. What is dominating over all is the one 'megapower' in the world. Right now that is the United States and I don't believe that will change for hundreds of years.

Many people mistakingly identify a larger army and/or civilian population as being superior. In today's world, that is not true. Although China has the largest standing army in the world(2.2 million), they lack the sophistication to carry out an effective war against the United States. China relies on inferior technology(Migs) for it's air force. They have no aircraft carriers as their entire navy air force is land based. Their main battle tank is a copy of the American Abrams tank in appearance, but it is plagued with performance issues. Most importantly, China is not developing enough new warfare technology to compete with the U.S. It is the ability to surpass that certifies domination. Not the ability to copy. If they continue to keep copying waht other nations have developed in full, they won't stand a chance in the event of war.
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Old 08-15-2005, 07:31 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sonoftelepunk


China already is a superpower. Several countries around the world are considered so. What is dominating over all is the one 'megapower' in the world. Right now that is the United States and I don't believe that will change for hundreds of years.

Many people mistakingly identify a larger army and/or civilian population as being superior. In today's world, that is not true. Although China has the largest standing army in the world(2.2 million), they lack the sophistication to carry out an effective war against the United States. China relies on inferior technology(Migs) for it's air force. They have no aircraft carriers as their entire navy air force is land based. Their main battle tank is a copy of the American Abrams tank in appearance, but it is plagued with performance issues. Most importantly, China is not developing enough new warfare technology to compete with the U.S. It is the ability to surpass that certifies domination. Not the ability to copy. If they continue to keep copying waht other nations have developed in full, they won't stand a chance in the event of war.
The last I checked, their copied nuclear bombs would still be very effective.
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Old 08-15-2005, 07:41 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally posted by phanan


The last I checked, their copied nuclear bombs would still be very effective.
Well of course if they resorted to nuclear weapons, which I seriously doubt, the world would be destroyed. Not in so much a biblical sense but more a scientific way. Climate shifts and contamination and such.
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Old 08-15-2005, 02:53 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
Taiwan is not a rougue state.
It is to China.
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Old 08-15-2005, 02:58 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
Australia would honour it's ANZUS treaty and support the US if it ever came to such a situation
I don't think ANZUS applies in that scenario. I mean, if China attacks Taiwan and the US says "Let's go get 'em boys!" that's not where ANZUS comes in (and in that scenario, if it took place tomorrow, I think Australia would try and stay out for as long as possible). ANZUS would only apply if China decided to attack unprovoked a US territory or interest or whatever (eg takes out a US Navy ship or something on the way). In which case, I'd suggest ANZUS would be invoked, but that would be the last of our worries and we should all move to the hills rather quickly.
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Old 08-15-2005, 06:59 PM   #34
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1) Do you believe Taiwan has the right to officially declare its independence from China?

YES 11 votes

NO 2 votes


2) If China attempts to invade Taiwan(regardless of whether Taiwan had declared independence or not), do you support US and international military intervention to stop China?

YES 6 votes

NO 7 votes



Very interesting results so far. Nearly everyone supports Taiwan's right to declare its independence from China, but people are split on whether they support US and international military intervention to stop a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan.
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Old 08-15-2005, 08:10 PM   #35
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Hokay. So zis is de erth. Then one day, we decide to nuke those chinese sons-of-a-bitches.

Anyone know what i'm talking about?

That is what will happen if we (righteously or not) declare war on China.
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Old 08-16-2005, 05:50 AM   #36
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Quote:
Originally posted by STING2



2) If China attempts to invade Taiwan(regardless of whether Taiwan had declared independence or not), do you support US and international military intervention to stop China?

YES 6 votes

NO 7 votes
Mine was a marginal yes, depending if there was enough support worldwide. Because if there wasn't, it would be a definite no.

Sometimes these things are hard to judge by just a yes or no.
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Old 08-16-2005, 02:44 PM   #37
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Lets get some more votes on these questions here:

1) Do you believe Taiwan has the right to officially declare its independence from China?


2) If China attempts to invade Taiwan(regardless of whether Taiwan had declared independence or not), do you support US and international military intervention to stop China?
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Old 08-17-2005, 12:06 AM   #38
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No and no.
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Old 08-17-2005, 07:58 PM   #39
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1) Do you believe Taiwan has the right to officially declare its independence from China?

YES 11 votes

NO 3 votes


2) If China attempts to invade Taiwan(regardless of whether Taiwan had declared independence or not), do you support US and international military intervention to stop China?

YES 6 votes

NO 8 votes
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