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Old 12-17-2003, 09:56 AM   #1
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Bush, China & Taiwan

I read this in the Toronto Star a few days ago and it occured to me that shouldn't Bush be support such a referendum?

If he is championing democracy in the Middle East, should he not also do it in the Far East instead of supporting the Communist "status quo"? It would seem consistent to me.

I know nothing about the situation between China and Taiwan, so I may be way off base here.

Does anyone know why Bush is taking this position?

Bush warns Taiwanese
Don't provoke Beijing, president says

Island sees no change in American policy


WASHINGTONóWith visiting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at his side, President George W. Bush sent a strong warning to Taiwan yesterday not to take any action toward independence that could cause new tensions with Beijing.

"We oppose any unilateral decision by either China or Taiwan to change the status quo," Bush said when asked about a planned March 20 vote in Taiwan on China.

"And the comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo, which we oppose."
rest of the article: here

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Old 12-17-2003, 10:59 AM   #2
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One main reason is to keep war from flairing up between the two countries. The U.S. has committed itself to defending Taiwan from Communist CHina's attack, but does not want to actually risk it at the moment. One thing we must realize is the reality of foreign policy. China is needed to help negotiate with North Korea, and it is hoped that CHina's moves towards capitalism will soon lead to more democracy. Also, a war with a country of 1 billion people would not be prudent right now. If such a referendum is passed, China has said that it will take necessary moves to correct that move. So as of right now with the war on terror going on around the world, a war with CHina would be very imprudent.

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Old 12-17-2003, 06:34 PM   #3
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Bush is following the "One China Policy" of the past 3 decades in which the USA supports Tawain and its democracy, but does not openly support it declaring Independence.

While China is a large country with a large army, it is seperated from Tawain by 90 miles of water. In order for China to take Tawain, it is reliant on its sea lift and air lift capacities which are very small, around 20,000 at best.

Tawain on the other hand has a military of 300,000 that could be waiting for such a small initial invasion force of 20,000. China does have a total military strenth of 2.5 million, but most of this is useless in a conflict with Tawain, because China has such a small sea and air lift capacity compared to its total military strength.

No one really talks about it, but China most likely would be unable to take Tawain, even if the USA did not intervene. This could change in the future though, if China invest in more air lift and sea lift capabilities to increase capacity to transport its military in such an operation.
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