Bush and Co. Walking Into bin Laden's Trap

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Michael Griffiths

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Okay, this is for all of you who are asking for a good reason for the US not to attack. Here's one VERY GOOD reason not to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iraq...


Bush and Co. Walking Into bin Laden?s Trap


?Can senior White
House officials really
be so ill-informed
about bin Laden?s
goals and strategy, or
do they just assume
that the U.S. public
hasn?t got a clue? And
if they do understand
what bin Laden is up
to, why are they
planning to do what
he wants anyway??


By Gwynne Dyer
for (impressive) bio see: http://142.27.12.158/~events/dyer_cv.html


?If Hitler invaded Hell, I should make at least a favourable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons,? said Winston Churchill in July, 1941, explaining why he was willing to make an alliance with Stalin now that Hitler had invaded the Soviet Union.

?The interests of Muslims and socialists converge in the fight against the Crusaders,? said Osama bin Laden in a taped speech broadcast on al-Jazeera on Tuesday, urging good Muslims to fight the American invaders of Iraq despite the ?ignorant governments that rule all Arab states, including Iraq.?

And why shouldn?t the al-Qaida leader try on Churchill?s mantle? Everybody else is doing it, from British Prime Minister Tony Blair (who regularly quotes Churchill on ?appeasement?) to President George W. Bush (who has Churchill?s picture on the wall in the Oval Office) to U.S. Defence Secretary Don Rumsfeld (who seems to think he is the reincarnation of the Great Man).

True, comparing Osama bin Laden to Winston Churchill is not an everyday activity, but in this case the analogy is exact.

Osama bin Laden despises the socialist dictator Saddam Hussein, but wants to see American troops mired in Iraq, just as Churchill loathed the Communist dictator Joseph Stalin but longed to see German troops bogged down in the Soviet Union.

The objective is to win the wider war, and if your enemy can be diverted into doing something stupid like invading Iraq (or the Soviet Union, in Churchill?s case), that is all to the good.

Bin Laden has been condemning Saddam Hussein?s godless socialist regime for years, calling Saddam an ?infidel? and advocating his over-throw, but if the United States wants to wade into Iraq and kill lost of Muslims, by all means let it do so. That would kill two birds with a single stone.

Saddam Hussein and his sons will be killed and the secular Baathist regime in Iraq destroyed, which certainly serves al-Qaida?s long-term goal of establishing Islamist government similar to that of the former Taliban regime in Afghanistan in every Arab state.

The Baathis regimes of Syria and Iraq are the Islamists? most serious opposition in the Arab world, as they still retain some remnant of their original socialist and Arab nationalist credentials. And meanwhile the Unites States will be killing lots of innocent Arab Muslims in Iraq ? the more the better, from bin Laden?s point of view, since every Arab victory should bring in dozens of new recruits for al-Qaida and its fellow Islamist movements in the Arab countries.

That has been bin Laden?s strategy from the start. The Islamist movements have been unable to persuade enough Arabs to join them in overthrowing the existing secular Arab governments ? the ?ignorant governments?, as he calls them ? despite 20 years of terrorism in the Arab countries, so al Qaida was created to enlist the unwitting support of the ?far enemy? (the West) in the struggle.

If the United States could be tricked into committing mayhem in the Arab world, that might finally drive enough Arabs into the Islamist camp to get their long-stalled revolutions off the ground.

That was what the attacks on the United States on Sept 11, 2001 were intended to produce: an indiscriminate, massive American retaliation against targets linked with the Islamists throughout the Arab world that would create huge ?collateral damage? in the form of innocent Arab deaths.

Bin Laden had reason to hope for such a response because that was what former U.S. president Bill Clinton had done, although on a much smaller scale, after al-Qaida killed 24 Americans in the attacks on U.S. embassies in East Africa in September 1998.

Surely killing many thousands of Americans on home ground would make the U.S. government go berserk and do the same thing again, but on a far greater scale.

The Bush administration did not walk into that trap, and instead focused its attention quite sensibly, on dismantling al-Qaida?s bases in Afghanistan. It was 19 Arabs who hijacked those four airliners on Sept. 11, but no Arab country has been attacked by the United States from that day to this.

Now, however, President Bush has created a similar trap for himself by targeting Iraq, and is about to walk into it. Bin Laden is delighted, and is naturally urging all Muslims to resist: the more Arab casualties, the better, from his point of view.

What is stunning is the smug ignorance of the ?senior White House official? who told CNN that the tape shows ?a terrorist making common cause with a brutal dictator?it demonstrates a burgeoning alliance of terror. This confirms that bad guys swim with the other bad guys. They live in the same pool.?

Can senior White House officials really be so ill-informed about bin Laden?s goals and strategy, or do they just assume that the U.S. public hasn?t got a clue? And if they do understand what bin Laden is up to, why are they planning to do what he wants anyway?

We are way past sensible argument here, so perhaps we should just end with the latest joke making the rounds.

Q: Mr. President, why are you so certain that Saddam Hussein has chemical weapons?
A: We kept the receipts.
 
Well, it was also Bin Ladin's plan that the USA would invade Afghanistan and he could drag the USA into a long war in which thousands of US soldiers would die in Afghanistan. He was sadly mistaken and he and his Al Quada and Taliban buddies got their socks kicked in. Of course there were many through out the world who believed that Bin Ladin would achieve his goal if the USA, invaded Aghanistan. They were wrong as well. 12 years ago, every Arab government was supposed to have been overthrown by popular revolt because of the US invasion of Kuwait and Iraq to push the Iraqi military out of Kuwait. It didn't happen. Not even a single act of violence to overthrow any government. Arab people are not sucide robots waiting to die for Bin Ladin or Saddam. They are much smarter than that. The number of Arabs that buy Coke will continue to vastly outnumber the number of Arabs who actively participate in Terrorism even after and invasion of Iraq.
 
Read the other article I posted ("When and How This War Is Going To Be Played Out") to see the major difference between this war and the one in the early 90s. Two very different animals. Also, the US invasion of Afghanistan was a sensible one, and a far different type of invasion (it targeted a specific terrorist group) than Iraq will be (tens of thousands of civilians will die). No, this one will have political ramifications that really ought to be avoided.
 
A US invasion of Iraq would NOT target civilians and would only target Iraqi military forces that decided to resist, just like the invasion of Afghanistan that only targeted the nationwide Taliban forces that resisted in addition to Al Quada. I did read the "When and How This War Is Going To Be Played Out" and disagreed with the conclusions.
 
Targeting and killing is not the same. The U.S. forces and every others countries forces miss their targets often enough, which leads to unnecessary bloodbaths of civilians.

Apart from that, every soldier is a civilian too, probably not by the definition of the U.S. army, but by the definition of his mother.
 
whenhipdrovethebigcars: very well said

STING2: we disagree then. Will the U.S. intentionally target civilians? No. Will they kill many, many civilians? Yes.
 
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I fear of the increasing radical Muslims' hate of the West as well, especially if Israel should retaliate towards Iraq.

*edit* Or if this whole thing should not end with Saddam and other countries will follow.
 
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STING2 said:
A US invasion of Iraq would NOT target civilians and would only target Iraqi military forces that decided to resist, just like the invasion of Afghanistan that only targeted the nationwide Taliban forces that resisted in addition to Al Quada. I did read the "When and How This War Is Going To Be Played Out" and disagreed with the conclusions.

no war has ever worked like that, and no war ever will turn like that.

i guess bombing a wedding in afganistan doesnt really matter. that doesnt count, it was a mistake. all the other civilian casualities - theyre honest mistakes so it doesnt count.

killing is fine as long as its by mistake. :up:

remember that blitzkrieg you guys were talking about? thousands of missiles launched in the capitol on the day of the attack? without notice or warning? that MIGHT kill a few INNOCENT people, dont you think?

-america the beautiful
 
Flag Pole Pear said:


no war has ever worked like that, and no war ever will turn like that.

i guess bombing a wedding in afganistan doesnt really matter. that doesnt count, it was a mistake. all the other civilian casualities - theyre honest mistakes so it doesnt count.

killing is fine as long as its by mistake. :up:

remember that blitzkrieg you guys were talking about? thousands of missiles launched in the capitol on the day of the attack? without notice or warning? that MIGHT kill a few INNOCENT people, dont you think?

-america the beautiful
Yes, I have always wondered what the exact difference between unintentional killing of civilians and killing by default is. STING2 - I change my mind: the US, given the right circumstances will, by default, intentionally kill civilians, and have done so in the past (thus it is emperically verified).

By the way STING2, if you haven't already, I'd check out this writer's bio. I don't think I'm making too much of an assumption that he's done a hell of a lot more research and has worked in the field (military and otherwise) much more extensively - and even personally knows many of the world players involved - much more so than even you have and do.
 
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Michael Griffiths said:
the US, given the right circumstances will, by default, intentionally kill civilians, and have done so in the past

*thinks back to Korea and Laos...

Melon
 
My father fought in the Vietnam War, and US bombing saved the lives of many South Vietnamese civilians and US soldiers.

Michael Griffiths,

Hey, I did not say anything to discredit the writer of the article personally. You don't know me, so please don't make unbased judgements about what I or anyone else here knows or has experienced.

I don't disagree with the writer because of his Bio, but because of his conclusions. There are many other people that also disagree with the writer as well.
 
Michael,

"Yes, I have always wondered what the exact difference between unintentional killing of civilians and killing by default is. STING2 - I change my mind: the US, given the right circumstances will, by default, intentionally kill civilians, and have done so in the past (thus it is emperically verified)."

Were also killing civilians if we fail to disarm Saddam now and let him get WMD that will be used to kill millions of innocent civilians. Saddam has already killed 1.7 million people, how many more people are you willing to let Saddam kill?

Whenever the Police use force in your local community to stop crime, there is always the risk that someone will be killed or injured accidently. 150 Police officers were killed in the line of duty last year in the USA. Many people who were innocent civilians are killed every year when Police use force to catch criminals. Would you suggest that the Police are intentially murdering innocent civilians?

Sorry, I disagree. The USA does not target civilians and goes to great lengths to avoid civilian loss of life. The USA is acting in Iraq to prevent the mass loss of life that will result of Saddam decides to use nuclear weapons that he will eventually get if something is not done. If you want to equate what the USA does with what Bin Ladin did on 9/11, fine, but me and millions of other people strongly disagree and see the huge difference.
 
STING2 said:
Michael,

"Yes, I have always wondered what the exact difference between unintentional killing of civilians and killing by default is. STING2 - I change my mind: the US, given the right circumstances will, by default, intentionally kill civilians, and have done so in the past (thus it is emperically verified)."

Were also killing civilians if we fail to disarm Saddam now and let him get WMD that will be used to kill millions of innocent civilians. Saddam has already killed 1.7 million people, how many more people are you willing to let Saddam kill?

Whenever the Police use force in your local community to stop crime, there is always the risk that someone will be killed or injured accidently. 150 Police officers were killed in the line of duty last year in the USA. Many people who were innocent civilians are killed every year when Police use force to catch criminals. Would you suggest that the Police are intentially murdering innocent civilians?

Sorry, I disagree. The USA does not target civilians and goes to great lengths to avoid civilian loss of life. The USA is acting in Iraq to prevent the mass loss of life that will result of Saddam decides to use nuclear weapons that he will eventually get if something is not done. If you want to equate what the USA does with what Bin Ladin did on 9/11, fine, but me and millions of other people strongly disagree and see the huge difference.

STING2: 1st, I apologize of making assumptions about your military experience and your knowledge of political science and foreign affairs. Secondly, I didn't ever "equate" what bin Laden did on 911 with what the "USA does". Thirdly, no country in this world should attack another country unilaterally, based on suspicion alone. I find it very strange that this "evidence" has come into being only now, when the US have been planning this war for at least a year (that we know about). This war was sought out - for whatever the reasons - plain and simple.
 
STING2 - I just wanted to add that I wasn't trying to belittle you; I was simply trying to show you this guy knows what he's talking about, and that he's had a lot of experience both academically and practically in world affairs and military strategy. My intentions were good, but the way I went about it was rather thoughtless. Once again, I apologize for that.
 
Michael,

No problem. I don't think you were really intending to discredit me, but it was kind of vague and I didn't want to go down the road of who knows what or is more experienced etc. I try approach Free Your Mind from the perspective that everyone is equal and has something very valuable to contribute to the debate, regardless of the political beliefs and conclusions on various topics. I am sure that the writer is well informed and very knowledgable on foreign affairs and military strategy. I still disagree with his conclusions. I read a lot of articles by various professional people. Some of them I disagree with others I agree with.
 
STING2 said:
My father fought in the Vietnam War, and US bombing saved the lives of many South Vietnamese civilians and US soldiers.


What about the lives of the Vietnamese civilians tortured and killed in search of the Vietkong troops? What about the secret "Phoenix"-like operations?

But right, all in the name of being on the right side. *sarcasm*
 
STING2 said:
My father fought in the Vietnam War, and US bombing saved the lives of many South Vietnamese civilians and US soldiers.

STING,but the bombing also killed someone...???
Excuse me,but I just don't get it.
(Yes,there's sarcasm in my words,but I hope you understand
that doesn't refer to you father and you don't take it too personally :)).
 
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I fail to see what your father fighting in the Vietnam war has to do with it.

Bottom line, the US, including your father, should not have been there in the first place. If they werent there, there would have been no need for bombings to save them.

But everyone makes mistakes in their life.

Many others refused to go fight in Vietnam and were incarcerated for standing by their convictions.

Or they came to Canada. :up: :)
 
Gabrielvox,

It has very little to do with it was just in reference to a more indirect comment about the subject matter here. Well its your opinion that my father and others should not have been there. My father and the others who served there believe in what they fought for and did their best to protect South Vietnames people.


Aine,

Yes, the bombing killed many Vietcong and North Vietnames soldiers as well as innocent civilians. That is what unfortunately happens in war.

U2girl,

"What about the lives of the Vietnamese civilians tortured and killed in search of the Vietkong troops? What about the secret "Phoenix"-like operations?"

I certainly don't agree with targeting and killing innocent civilians and any that did so are war criminals. But it was not US policy to simply indiscriminitely kill innocent civilians. Doing so had no political or military benefit to the United States. Aside from the war crimes committed by some individuals, the Vietnam War had more restrictions on the use of military force than any other war in US history. Thats where the term, "fighting with a war with one arm behind your back" comes from.
 
Yup.. originally the former capital of Japan, Osaka, was Target #1 due to the immense psychological blow of killing that many civilians, but then it was ruled out due to an aversion to international condemnation that would have likely ensued. Of course Hiroshima was no better but it did have some distinction of having munitions factories there so it was easier for them to try paint it as a 'military town', thus a somewhat more 'valid' target.
 
Had the US not dropped "the Bomb" America would have been forced to invade Japan to end the war, given the mindset of the Japanese leadership at the time. Civilian casualties from such an invasion would have made the body count at Hiroshima and Nagasaki look like a drive by shooting.
 
I used to believe what I was spoon fed.Then I did some independent research and found out everything I was told was not neccesarily correct.
 
STING2 said:
My father and the others who served there believe in what they fought for and did their best to protect South Vietnames people.


But it was not US policy to simply indiscriminitely kill innocent civilians.

1) is wrong. Your father and some others who served there may have believed in what they fought for. But you can?t say My father and the others...; implying that everyone who fought there believed in what they were told to fight for.

Some (I think many, but for sure some) American soldiers in Vietnam didn?t believe in what they were told to fight for. One example is Jimi Hendrix. You may find some more examples on the Memorial in Washington DC, but I can?t quote them, because they are dead.

2) It was US policy to kill innocent people in my opinion. I can?t prove that, because access to those documents will never be allowed. But I can tell you it is very likely. Some American soldiers may have flipped out with the atrocities and cruelties of a war, simply got crazy and killed some civilians. Some, in my opinion, have been told to do so. The tactics in Vietnam was to weaken the country and its inhabitants in every possible way. To kill civilians intentionally is a fine method to weaken the country. With all the war crimes that were commited, I believe this was an official policy.

Please take your time and reply to 1) and 2), STING2. You may disagree with 2), but you surely can?t disagree with 1), can you? If you can, I would urge you to do a research amongst Vietnam Veterans - you can question 1000 of them, and I would be interested in what they have to say about their beliefs.
 
HIPHOP,

#1 Yes, not everyone who served in Vietnam has the same view of the war as my father and the many I have talked to and received recommendations from. Trust, me I have done plenty of research in this area and talked with many people.

#2 It was not US policy to indiscriminately kill civilians in Vietnam. There were certainly individuals who engaged in such criminal activity, but it was not US policy. If it had been, most of the country and people would have been killed in only a few months.

US strategy in Vietnam was about winning hearts and minds, not killing them or giving them reason to support the enemy.

By the way, if you want to look into war crimes, how about taking a look at what North Vietnames and Vietcong soldiers did throughout the Vietnam War to South Vietnames civlians and US POWs.
 
STING2 said:
By the way, if you want to look into war crimes, how about taking a look at what North Vietnames and Vietcong soldiers did throughout the Vietnam War to South Vietnames civlians and US POWs.

So? To say it in your words, they were only defending their country, weren?t they? In a war, shit happens. Sure enough, they tried to avoid to kill civilians, didn?t they?

Don?t take that serious, sure they have committed crimes- but that?s the bad thing about war in general. This is one of the reasons why I?m generally against war.
 
Innocent people sometimes get killed in your local community when policemen enforce the law. Are you saying they should refrain from enforcing the law because sometimes they have to take actions that may result in accidents which hurt innocent people?
 
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