Bird Flu Pandemic

[joyfulgirl]

Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht

So just how much food do you have saved up? How many days worth?

I urge you all to read Secretary of Health & Human Services' Michael Leavitt's speech from the New Hampshire summit a few weeks ago. He is going state-to-state urging people to prepare. Doesn't that sound like they believe it's imminent? It isn't a matter of preparing for a few days. If there is a worst-case scenario pandemic like in 1918, you won't want to leave the house at all for possibly months. That is how people in 1918 survived. No one knows yet whether this will be a mild pandemic like the Hong Kong flu, or one as bad as or worse than the 1918 one. But Leavitt's speech was chilling. "A pandemic would not be three hellish days and then moving into recovery. It would be literally a year," he said.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/health/.../20leavitt.htm

Here's an excerpt where he talked about how fast it spread in 1918:

In the state of Massachusetts, the great pandemic struck. On August the 27th, the first cases were found – two sailors at Commonwealth Pier. The next day, there were eight cases. The day after that, there were 60 cases. Within two weeks, 2,000 people were suffering with the influenza. On the 8th of September, it struck Camp Devens, where there were 50,000 soldiers.

I found an account by a physician whose name only I know to be Roy. I don't know any more about him, but he obviously was there to attend soldiers who had been struck. I'd like to read something from his journal, and I'd like to tell you, this is a rather graphic description, but it's important to understand that what we're talking about here isn't just the flu. This is a killer disease.

He said this epidemic started four weeks ago and has developed so rapidly that the camp is demoralized and all ordinary work is held up till it passes. These men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of influenza, and when they're brought to the hospital, very rapidly they develop the most vicious type of pneumonia that I have ever seen. Two hours after admission, they have mahogany spots over their cheeks. In a few hours you can begin to see the cyanosis extending from their ears all over their face until they can hardly be distinguished from the colored men – when you can hardly distinguished the colored men from the white.

It's only a matter of hours until death comes, and it's simply a struggle for air until they suffocate. It is horrible. One can stand to see one, two or 20 men die; but to see these poor devils dropping like flies sort of gets on your nerves. We've been averaging about 100 a day, and it just keeps coming.

By the time the pandemic had stopped in Massachusetts, 45,000 people had died.

I think Bush knows how serious this is. He asked Congress for $7.1 billion to jump start our bird flu preparedness program. Congress approved half that amount.

Yes, I just said something nice about Bush.

[4U2Play]

Originally posted by Blackberry
I agree with this statement that this will happen and human get from human, but they will make the vaccine for it and dont let the flu spread too much. Where the human flu will be developed, many will die ...no doubt. In a little while...I think in autumn or winter.

As of now, there is a severe shortage of Tamiflu and Relenza, to the point that some countries are saying that they will defy Roche's and Glaxo's patent claims in order to mass produce generic versions of the antivirals should a pandemic break out, but I'm afraid it will be too little, too late.

As someone else pointed out earlier, look how many people around the world still contract AIDS, which is rather difficult to get compared to Avian Flu. Even if "they make the vaccine for it", it is possible that millions of people will never get it in time, especially in Africa and parts of Asia.

If that occurs, even if a large percentage of North Americans and Europeans are vaccinated, governments would still be forced to shut down their borders, causing massive economic damage throughout the world (and you think the US-Mexico border issue is a political ploy now? Things might get much more complicated and nasty).

Also, even if I was vaccinated, I would still not venture out in public for awhile if a pandemic was underway. I suspect many others would follow suit. Paranoid, maybe, but vaccinations are not 100% fullproof, so why take a chance.

A pandemic won't hit this winter, it might take a few more years, but I am glad to see everyone here taking this seriously and preparing themselves, just in case.

Please consider stocking up now. At least have enough to protect everyone in your immediate family. The prices will only get higher:

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=...oogle&ct=title

[Maoilbheannacht]

Originally posted by joyfulgirl


I urge you all to read Secretary of Health & Human Services' Michael Leavitt's speech from the New Hampshire summit a few weeks ago. He is going state-to-state urging people to prepare. Doesn't that sound like they believe it's imminent? It isn't a matter of preparing for a few days. If there is a worst-case scenario pandemic like in 1918, you won't want to leave the house at all for possibly months. That is how people in 1918 survived. No one knows yet whether this will be a mild pandemic like the Hong Kong flu, or one as bad as or worse than the 1918 one. But Leavitt's speech was chilling. "A pandemic would not be three hellish days and then moving into recovery. It would be literally a year," he said.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/health/.../20leavitt.htm

Here's an excerpt where he talked about how fast it spread in 1918:

In the state of Massachusetts, the great pandemic struck. On August the 27th, the first cases were found – two sailors at Commonwealth Pier. The next day, there were eight cases. The day after that, there were 60 cases. Within two weeks, 2,000 people were suffering with the influenza. On the 8th of September, it struck Camp Devens, where there were 50,000 soldiers.

I found an account by a physician whose name only I know to be Roy. I don't know any more about him, but he obviously was there to attend soldiers who had been struck. I'd like to read something from his journal, and I'd like to tell you, this is a rather graphic description, but it's important to understand that what we're talking about here isn't just the flu. This is a killer disease.

He said this epidemic started four weeks ago and has developed so rapidly that the camp is demoralized and all ordinary work is held up till it passes. These men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of influenza, and when they're brought to the hospital, very rapidly they develop the most vicious type of pneumonia that I have ever seen. Two hours after admission, they have mahogany spots over their cheeks. In a few hours you can begin to see the cyanosis extending from their ears all over their face until they can hardly be distinguished from the colored men – when you can hardly distinguished the colored men from the white.

It's only a matter of hours until death comes, and it's simply a struggle for air until they suffocate. It is horrible. One can stand to see one, two or 20 men die; but to see these poor devils dropping like flies sort of gets on your nerves. We've been averaging about 100 a day, and it just keeps coming.

By the time the pandemic had stopped in Massachusetts, 45,000 people had died.

I think Bush knows how serious this is. He asked Congress for $7.1 billion to jump start our bird flu preparedness program. Congress approved half that amount.

Yes, I just said something nice about Bush.

So how much food have you saved up? How many days worth, if you don't mind me asking?

[Maoilbheannacht]

Originally posted by 4U2Play


As of now, there is a severe shortage of Tamiflu and Relenza, to the point that some countries are saying that they will defy Roche's and Glaxo's patent claims in order to mass produce generic versions of the antivirals should a pandemic break out, but I'm afraid it will be too little, too late.

As someone else pointed out earlier, look how many people around the world still contract AIDS, which is rather difficult to get compared to Avian Flu. Even if "they make the vaccine for it", it is possible that millions of people will never get it in time, especially in Africa and parts of Asia.

If that occurs, even if a large percentage of North Americans and Europeans are vaccinated, governments would still be forced to shut down their borders, causing massive economic damage throughout the world (and you think the US-Mexico border issue is a political ploy now? Things might get much more complicated and nasty).

Also, even if I was vaccinated, I would still not venture out in public for awhile if a pandemic was underway. I suspect many others would follow suit. Paranoid, maybe, but vaccinations are not 100% fullproof, so why take a chance.

A pandemic won't hit this winter, it might take a few more years, but I am glad to see everyone here taking this seriously and preparing themselves, just in case.

Please consider stocking up now. At least have enough to protect everyone in your immediate family. The prices will only get higher:

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=...oogle&ct=title

Here are some things we should all know about this Tamiflu.


"LEAVITT: Tamiflu is an antiviral medication. It is one type of antiviral that has shown effectiveness against the H5N1 virus. It's important to understand its virtues and its limits."

"First, its virtues. It has shown in large – in circumstances that if it is given within 24 to 48 hours at the time a person begins to manifest a system, that it has a substantial impact on the length of time people have symptoms and the nature of their symptoms. That's all very good."

"The – in terms of the potential downsides, there is no guarantee that Tamiflu will be effective under the mutated version of the virus, whatever it is that ultimately triggers a pandemic, and therefore, there's another – it's important that it be recognized as a treatment and not as a prophylaxis. It does have a preventative quality when it's taken every day, but that would mean a person, in order to have protection, would have to take one Tamiflu tablet every day for a year. We have no idea what type of impact that would have on a human body. There's no certainty that that would be safe, and there's no certainty that it would ultimately have the desired impact."


A lot of information covers what governments at various levels should be doing. There seems to be little information about what a single individual or a single family should be doing to prepare. Should a family of four purchase 20,000 dollars worth of food that can last for a year? Eventually, all that food will get to old to eat, even if its specially made and prepared. If the pandemic does not come for five years, then you have spent thousands of dollars on food that you won't be able to use by then.

[joyfulgirl]

Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht

So how much food have you saved up? How many days worth, if you don't mind me asking?

I don't know. Haven't counted and haven't finished. Just doing something each day, and going about my life. But we're looking at months, not days.

Here's a site with some good info:
http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n...lyPreparedness

[Maoilbheannacht]

Originally posted by joyfulgirl


I don't know. Haven't counted and haven't finished. Just doing something each day, and going about my life. But we're looking at months, not days.

Here's a site with some good info:
http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n...lyPreparedness

I would think you might have some general idea, do you have 7 days worth, a month, 3 months, 6 months? I can't imagine where one would find the space to store 6 months worth of food. Even such "non-perishable" food would eventually be to old I think. If such supplies could last for 20 or 30 years, it makes perfect sense to build such a massive stockpile. But if you have to keep replacing a stockpile that large every 3 years, that could get a bit crazy financially.

Remember, no one really knows when a pandemic would hit. Your one year supply of stuff, may be to old if the pandemic strikes 15 years from now.

One thing we should remember is that even in the worst cased senerio projected, 70% of the population would not even get sick. Only 15% would have to go to the hospital at any point. Only slightly more than a half percent would die, but in a country of 300 million people, thats 2 million people.

[joyfulgirl]

Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht


I would think you might have some general idea, do you have 7 days worth, a month, 3 months, 6 months?

What difference does it make? Why do you keep asking me? If I knew I would tell you. I said "months" and I'm not going to go count it out for you right now so back off.

[Maoilbheannacht]

Originally posted by joyfulgirl


What difference does it make? Why do you keep asking me? If I knew I would tell you. I said "months" and I'm not going to go count it out for you right now so back off.

oops, I missed where you said "months". I only asked out of curiousity because I did not know anyone who had made such preparations yet.

[4U2Play]

Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht
One thing we should remember is that even in the worst cased senerio projected, 70% of the population would not even get sick. Only 15% would have to go to the hospital at any point. Only slightly more than a half percent would die, but in a country of 300 million people, thats 2 million people.

This is an excellent point, perhaps you could provide a reliable source for this info?

The percentage of people who might die from the Avian Flu are actually quite low, I've read, but it won't take much to scare the bejeebers out of everyone... remember SARS and how much of an effect that relatively minor epidemic had on certain Asian economies, populations and governments.

There were a total of 8437 known cases of SARS, with 813 deaths (a mortality rate of 9.636%). Eventually, the WHO wiped it out, only the second disease in human history to be eradicated (the other was smallpox), though I suspect the CDC and other labs keep samples around.

If Avian Flu ever mutates into a human-to-human virus, there will be a huge run on Tamiflu, Relenza and surgical masks, depleting government stockpiles, leaving billions of people around the globe without any sort of protection or treatment whatsoever.

Imagine what would happen if everyone stayed in their homes for six months. Crime, pollution and war would decline; divorce, drug use and book sales would rise.

[Maoilbheannacht]

Originally posted by 4U2Play


This is an excellent point, perhaps you could provide a reliable source for this info?

The percentage of people who might die from the Avian Flu are actually quite low, I've read, but it won't take much to scare the bejeebers out of everyone... remember SARS and how much of an effect that relatively minor epidemic had on certain Asian economies, populations and governments.

There were a total of 8437 known cases of SARS, with 813 deaths (a mortality rate of 9.636%). Eventually, the WHO wiped it out, only the second disease in human history to be eradicated (the other was smallpox), though I suspect the CDC and other labs keep samples around.

If Avian Flu ever mutates into a human-to-human virus, there will be a huge run on Tamiflu, Relenza and surgical masks, depleting government stockpiles, leaving billions of people around the globe without any sort of protection or treatment whatsoever.

Imagine what would happen if everyone stayed in their homes for six months. Crime, pollution and war would decline; divorce, drug use and book sales would rise.

Can you honestly say you have 6 months of food stored in your house so you won't have to leave it for that length of time? The fact is, stockpiling that amount of food is a big expense and would take up significant space. If people wait until the pandemic has really started, it will be impossible for each household to run out and purchase that much food. The Stores would be depleted quickly.

The fact is, people are going to have to leave their homes I think. They won't have enough provisions when it starts, and there will probably be restrictions on the amount of food you can buy at one time.

6 months of food for a family of four would be several thousand dollars. I suppose if you only had to buy and stockpile it once, that would not be that big of an expense. But what happens if the Pandemic does not hit for another 5, 10 or 15 years? Are you going to crack open that 15 year old box of cheerios and dig in? In reality, a permanent home fort strategy would probably involve the purchase of 6 months of "non-perishable" food every couple of years probably. Suddenly, your families annual food bill per year would go up by as much as 25% to 50%, depending on the need to replace old stockpiles as time goes by.

The real question is, is there "non-perishable" food out there that can last for decades? I read something about specially prepared MRE's, but the shelf life on them is only 3 years.

[Maoilbheannacht]

As for the statistics about the number of people who would get sick, it comes from one of the links that was posted up there. I can't remember which one, I've seen these figures several times actually. I think its basically and extrapolation based on the figures from the 1918 flue. Population then was 100 million, now its 300 million, so they just multiplied the figures times 3. One thing they did not have in 1918 are all these drugs. Then again, while in 1918, the movement of soldiers aided the spread during World War I, transportation today is so massive on a global scale now that I think the spread would be much faster.

Many people have said this would last a year, mainly because that is what happened in 1918. But back in 1918, there was no airline industry. In fact, there were not nearly as many motor vehicles either. It seems like its possible that given todays level of transportation, the spread would be far faster, but perhaps that would mean the length of the pandemic would be shorter as well.

[AliEnvy]

Originally posted by Teta040
AliEnvy, any chance you can link to that Toronto Star report? There has to be an online version.

It was a whole separate section full of articles from Sat., May 27th - I didn't keep it so I don't have any specific links. You can check thestar.com to see what related articles are probably still in the archives.

Although since bird flu is only one of a myriad of doomsday horrors that currently loom over humanity I'm guessing a bit of google research would pull up all the same information...like joyfulgirl's links in the first post(s).

[AliEnvy]

Originally posted by 4U2Play

As of now, there is a severe shortage of Tamiflu and Relenza, to the point that some countries are saying that they will defy Roche's and Glaxo's patent claims in order to mass produce generic versions of the antivirals should a pandemic break out, but I'm afraid it will be too little, too late.

The shortage is due to limited organic production of a key ingredient - some plant grown in the Himalayas or something like that - not patent protection.

I'd caution people who want to buy it online...there is plenty of counterfeit Tamiflu being sold that way.

[Maoilbheannacht]

Has anyone here thought about growing their own food as opposed to stocking large amounts of cans and packaged foods? I guess back in 1918 a lot of people could live off of what they grew in their own garden. You had the garden for food, and water from the underground well.

[joyfulgirl]

So it's finally been confirmed today that the mysterious cluster of bird flu deaths in one Indonesian family last year did in fact happen as a result of human-to-human transmission, which anyone who has been following this story already knew. Now with bird flu in Bali, and at least one death there without an obvious link to infected birds, are we on the verge of a pandemic? I mean, like, for real?

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0828154944.htm
Humans Spread Bird Flu To Humans in Indonesia

Science Daily — In the first systematic, statistical analysis of its kind, infectious-disease-modeling experts at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center confirm that the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in 2006 spread between a small number of people within a family in Indonesia. The findings, by biostatistician Ira M. Longini Jr., Ph.D., and colleagues, will be published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/Cris...toryId=JAK4320
Indonesia still probing source of bird flu death
Thu 12 Jul 2007 11:29:13 BST

JAKARTA, July 12 (Reuters) - Medical officials in Indonesia are still trying to pinpoint the source of infection after a 6-year-old boy died of bird flu at the weekend, a health official said on Thursday.

The boy, from the city of Cilegon in Banten province, suffered from high fever and breathing difficulties before he died of multi-organ failure on Sunday.

Contact with infected fowl is the most common way for humans to contract the H5N1 virus, but so far no clear link in this case has been established, officials said.

It is always a concern when the cause of a human infection cannot be traced as it makes infection control more difficult.