2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII

[corianderstem]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

But if she knew she was terminally ill and had two years to live, would she actually tell us? I think we all know the answer is no.

[BEAL]

It's been two years since I left Iowa, and I can now see why Trump and Clinton are neck and neck....

I don't recall it being this rural.....maybe SoCal has finally rubbed off on me. With my tan, unlimited supply of tank tops, and craft beers

Seriously tho, how is Trump leading my home state?


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[BigMacPhisto]

How is Trump doing any of this? The guy is only trailing by about a point in the two-way and four-way polling aggregates at the moment and things are starting to look very good for him in places like Ohio.

He's being outspent and is disliked by a far wider margin, but none of that really matters when the J.V. candidate faces off against the professional when they're in a wheelchair. She really is the Glass Joe of politics.

The first debate is what is going to sort everything out. Either she'll make him look like the man-child that he is or he'll insert a couple "there you go again" remarks and we can look forward to a Republican President and Congress in January.

[Oregoropa]

Latest poll has Trump +8 in Iowa


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[BEAL]

Lots of deplorables in Iowa


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[anitram]

Originally Posted by DaveC

and to be honest i don't think that comparison works very well. layton was already the incumbent mp, leader of the national ndp party, and absolutely adored in his riding. he publicly announced his diagnosis well over a year before that election and only really took a turn for the worse a couple months after the election (the election was in may, that was the "orange crush" election where they became the official opposition if you recall, and it was july before he became unable to work anymore), and only a month before he died. he certainly did not know he was terminal before the election, and i strongly suspect that if he had known he wouldn't have run, and simply lent his support and name to campaigning for the ndp as much as he could before the end.

I don't think he knew when the election began but he found out during the course of the campaign and nevertheless proceeded as if he was still in remission. When you say he publicly admitted his diagnosis - yes, but he also publicly announced he was in remission. Imagine if he had won, he would have died before the Parliament sat again. Now imagine if that was the case with Stephen Harper - he'd have been branded a liar and most people would be outraged that he'd kept this piece of news to himself. I think because Layton was generally liked by the public, people were much more willing to look beyond this.

Back to the topic, the Dr. Oz show was ridiculous.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

How is Trump doing any of this?

First off. The Democrats basically promised the nomination to Hillary. The machinery of the party apparatus went into overdrive to get it done. They ignored the baggage she carried with her . . . Private Server, Benghazi, Health, General Unfavorability. Some of you will dismiss this as Hyperbole, but in the era of computer hacking and leaks it is coming back to bite her in the ass. With exception of Bernie, nobody was willing to mount a realistic challenge to her in the primary. The Clinton's lust for power and hubris, squashed any questioning of "Is she the right fit for 2016?". Reminds me of Dr. Malcolm in Jurassic Park "Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should."

In the meantime, out in the hinterland, away from the cosmopolitan power nexus of the DC-media elites, the people were growing restless. Many had faith that Obama would bring the hope and change he promised. Instead the past 8 years has seen economic stagnation in the paycheck department for the average worker. The ACA was a saving grace for those who could not be insured, but the blowback was premiums skyrocketing out of control with less bang for your buck for a good chunk of the population. They first turned to the GOP taking back both houses of congress. They sent their Congressional reps to DC hoping to be a check against the administration. They were then co-opted into the Beltway mentality of cronyism and not rocking the boat for fear of a government shutdown if they decided to use the "power of the purse" as outlined in the Constitution.

With seeing the Federal Government as a broken mess with parties to blame, people were open to an outsider. Along comes Trump and he catches fire. Taps into the feelings of disdain for politics as usual and quickly dispatches the favorites of the GOP establishment in the Republican primary.

Fast forward to the past several weeks. His previous gaffes have been muffled by hybrid-prompter speeches. More people are seeing him as a viable candidate and less the braggadocios Reality-TV Mogul. Hillary has had rough couple weeks. Absences from the campaign trail, health questions, a the constant drip of leaked emails which confirm to many that she is not trustworthy and is the poster child of everything that is wrong with the DC insider mentality. She picks the most boring VP since Quayle. There is general lack of enthusiasm for her even amongst liberals (many who supported Bernie). She is reliant on the campaign playbook of the past (ground game, friendly media, TV ad buys, reliable go-to demographics) and the Blue Wall to get her to the finish line.

Trump has essentially shredded the Republican playbook. Has enough gas in the tank to do multiple rallies in 48 hours, calls into various media at the drop of a hat. He's starting to chip away at her weaknesses on the margins by engaging with the African-American community. His efforts seem to be bearing fruit, as recent polls have had him peaking with 23% of the African-American vote. Even if she still pulls 85% of the African-American vote it will still hurt her badly in Virginia, North Carolina, and the metros scattered across the battleground states. With Obama not on top of the ticket the turnout for Hillary among these voters will be markedly lower.

Trump has been hamstrung by Never-Trumper Republicans keeping his GOP polling support in the high 70s. It appears that voting block is beginning coalesce around him in recent polls. High profile critics of Trump like Mark Levin and Carly Fiorina having recently cast their lot with him as a means to stop Hillary.

That's how Trump is doing this.

[Diemen]

That's a lovely narrative you've constructed, Oregeropa.

[namkcuR]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

First off. The Democrats basically promised the nomination to Hillary. The machinery of the party apparatus went into overdrive to get it done. They ignored the baggage she carried with her . . . Private Server, Benghazi, Health, General Unfavorability. Some of you will dismiss this as Hyperbole, but in the era of computer hacking and leaks it is coming back to bite her in the ass. With exception of Bernie, nobody was willing to mount a realistic challenge to her in the primary. The Clinton's lust for power and hubris, squashed any questioning of "Is she the right fit for 2016?". Reminds me of Dr. Malcolm in Jurassic Park "Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should."

In the meantime, out in the hinterland, away from the cosmopolitan power nexus of the DC-media elites, the people were growing restless. Many had faith that Obama would bring the hope and change he promised. Instead the past 8 years has seen economic stagnation in the paycheck department for the average worker. The ACA was a saving grace for those who could not be insured, but the blowback was premiums skyrocketing out of control with less bang for your buck for a good chunk of the population. They first turned to the GOP taking back both houses of congress. They sent their Congressional reps to DC hoping to be a check against the administration. They were then co-opted into the Beltway mentality of cronyism and not rocking the boat for fear of a government shutdown if they decided to use the "power of the purse" as outlined in the Constitution.

With seeing the Federal Government as a broken mess with parties to blame, people were open to an outsider. Along comes Trump and he catches fire. Taps into the feelings of disdain for politics as usual and quickly dispatches the favorites of the GOP establishment in the Republican primary.

Fast forward to the past several weeks. His previous gaffes have been muffled by hybrid-prompter speeches. More people are seeing him as a viable candidate and less the braggadocios Reality-TV Mogul. Hillary has had rough couple weeks. Absences from the campaign trail, health questions, a the constant drip of leaked emails which confirm to many that she is not trustworthy and is the poster child of everything that is wrong with the DC insider mentality. She picks the most boring VP since Quayle. There is general lack of enthusiasm for her even amongst liberals (many who supported Bernie). She is reliant on the campaign playbook of the past (ground game, friendly media, TV ad buys, reliable go-to demographics) and the Blue Wall to get her to the finish line.

Trump has essentially shredded the Republican playbook. Has enough gas in the tank to do multiple rallies in 48 hours, calls into various media at the drop of a hat. He's starting to chip away at her weaknesses on the margins by engaging with the African-American community. His efforts seem to be bearing fruit, as recent polls have had him peaking with 23% of the African-American vote. Even if she still pulls 85% of the African-American vote it will still hurt her badly in Virginia, North Carolina, and the metros scattered across the battleground states. With Obama not on top of the ticket the turnout for Hillary among these voters will be markedly lower.

Trump has been hamstrung by Never-Trumper Republicans keeping his GOP polling support in the high 70s. It appears that voting block is beginning coalesce around him in recent polls. High profile critics of Trump like Mark Levin and Carly Fiorina having recently cast their lot with him as a means to stop Hillary.

That's how Trump is doing this.

First off, the right wing has engaged in a smear campaign - unique in its prolonged decades-long nature and virulent intensity - against Hillary Clinton, going all the way back to the freak-out over her saying, during Bill's first run for the White House in 1992, that 'I suppose I could have stayed home, baked cookies, and had teas', and continuing through countless other things. The Whitewater affair, where there was never sufficient evidence to prosecute. The accusations - by people who wouldn't be privy to whatever really went on in her private life - that she didn't handle her position as a cheated-on First Lady properly. The unsubstantiated accusations that Vince Foster's suicide was actually a murder and that the Clintons were behind it. The seven investigations - led by the endless House Committee hearings - of the Benghazi attacks which hounded the issue of Clinton's wrongdoing for years but ultimately found no proof of anything. The freak-out over her use of a private e-mail server when she was Secretary Of Sate, investigations into which cleared her of any legal wrongdoing. And most recently, her health, more precisely the accusations that because she hit her had and had a concussion a few years ago and because she's a few coughing fits and, now, because she had the gall to come down with pneumonia for a few days, that means she's hiding a big secret illness that would disqualify her from holding office.

This stuff has stuck, people who only get their new from Fox News and Rush Limbaugh and Alex Jones are predisposed to believe it, and Trump takes advantage of this and fans those flames in public, most pointedly with the moniker 'Crooked Hillary'.

Parallel to all of this, our nation has always had a nasty history of racism and increasingly in recent decades, there has been an equally nasty strain of anti-immigration isolationism. The impulse to blame the other and be angry with the other is often more pronounced in times of economic strife. Angry about your economic situation and that of people you know? Blame the immigrants, the brown people, and the black people. This is how Hitler rose to power. And Trump has spent over a year now attracting all these types. There are audio recordings of the things people are saying at these rallies, and listening to them is truly chilling.

Additionally, the frustration with both political parties, and the desire for a viable alternate, are real. Unfortunately, there are too many whose education has failed them, who think if a guy says 'hey, these other guys are all crooks, I'M going to change everything, it's all going to be different now', that means he's going to do it. Who don't see that he's one of the most ruthless, narcissistic pragmatists of our time, who cares only about acquiring more wealth and power for himself and his family, and that all of these fanatical supporters of his mean nothing to him, are the gum on the bottom of his shoes.

All of these things add up for him.

There was a post-convention bounce for Hillary, but we're on the backend now of the better part of two months in which there haven't been any major events in the campaign, where it's all been just regular campaign stops, and where Hillary for whatever reason decided not to have so many stops. The result is that for the better part of that two months, the media coverage has been essentially 100% Trump. 100% Trump re-enforcing everything above. So the post-convention bounce for Hillary is coming back to Earth.

That's how Trump's doing this.

See, I can do it too.

Honestly though, the thought of a Trump presidency is terrifying and this one Colorado poll where he's up for the first time has me legitimately concerned for the first time. I've resigned myself to him winning Florida and, sadly, my state of Ohio, but I've been able to sleep at night because as long as Hillary keeps Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado, she should be in good shape. But if any of those states slips...

[bono_212]

“He was asked one more time where was President Obama born, and he still wouldn’t say Hawaii. He still wouldn’t say America,” she said to the crowd of mostly Latinos.
“This man wants to be our next president?” she asked. “When will he stop this ugliness, this bigotry? Now, he’s tried to reset himself and his campaign many times. This is the best he can do. This is who he is.”

And more:

Trump campaign, but not Trump, says Obama was born in the US - CNNPolitics.com

[Headache in a Suitcase]

How is Trump doing this? That's pretty simple...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...=mobilebar&v=1


He's not.

[Vlad n U 2]

Originally Posted by namkcuR

The GOP's socialist and communist attacks would have been vicious and relentless, and I wanted to see him be able to combat that by saying, listen, in a soviet-type communist system, the government owns everything, there is no freedom of the press and freedom of speech is very limited. We would have to repeal several amendments from the bill of rights including the first amendment. And do you seriously think this is what I want? Do you think I want to take away your freedom of speech, have you live in a society where the only news you get is the news the government produces, where every good you buy is manufactured by the government, etc etc, is that really what you think I want? That's ridiculous! All I want is for everyone to have healthcare, for the minimum wage to be higher, and for quality education to be available to everyone, that is it!

I'm generally reluctant to post on this board nowadays but - that Sanders would (and has) succumbed to red-baiting isn't a good thing by any stretch. Additionally, I believe it would further benefit conservatives as Bernie as it spreads misinformation regarding an ideology and its aims, it would play right into their hands. Preferably, if Bernie really knew his stuff, he'd say 'no, I do not support the elimination of class and state (for instance), as I prefer to implement social programs benefiting the American people through reforms etc. etc.' Now that approach would deserve much more respect.

Bernie, after all, is mild as.

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

How is Trump doing this? That's pretty simple...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...=mobilebar&v=1


He's not.

But he's closed the gap in a month from 89% Typhoid Hill - 11% Orange Donnie to 60% Entitled Liar - 40% Spray Tanned Bigot, so I wouldn't count him out just yet.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Nah.

He's counted out, barring something shocking or absolutely stupid by the Clinton campaign.

Did anyone really expect her expected win percentage to stay in the high 70s? Of course it was going to close. But it's still a huge gap.

End of the day Trump is a candidate with no ideas, who alienates very important voting blocks, and has zero ground game.

[DaveC]

i can't for the life of me understand why when there is one poll showing Trump leading in a state in which he wasn't previously, or closes by a point nationally, people here seem to completely forget that the electoral college is a thing.

[phanan]

Yeah, this still won't be close in the end.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by DaveC

i can't for the life of me understand why when there is one poll showing Trump leading in a state in which he wasn't previously, or closes by a point nationally, people here seem to completely forget that the electoral college is a thing.

Because on the major media outlets, it gets advertised as "breaking news: Trump now leading Clinton in battleground state x y and z."

They want it to be closer than it is, because the media makes their dime based upon how much you watch.

[BigMacPhisto]

People aren't forgetting about the Electoral College, if you look at the map, it's clear that Trump could very well take states like Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio on Election Day. Right now, it's at the point where it would all come down to Pennsylvania. When polls from that state start looking real close, then it will be time for worry.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

If it's the middle of October and Trump has an electoral college lead in most polls, worry.

Until then, this race still isn't close.

[BigMacPhisto]

natesilver: I’m semi-tempted to go on a rant about how Democrats are abusing the “Look at the state polls!” argument incorrectly, as a way to deny that the race has tightened

From: Why Is Trump Gaining On Clinton? | FiveThirtyEight


Trump also has an alternate path to victory that not a lot of people are noticing. Romney States + Nevada + Iowa + Florida + Ohio + North Carolina + Colorado would give him the victory. And I think Colorado might be an easier flip than Pennsylvania. Two of the last three polls of Colorado had a sizable Trump lead.