2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII

[Axver]

Originally Posted by Hewson

Current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan

Huh, I don't remember his involvement at all, which just goes to prove the point about the irrelevance of the VP pick.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Axver

Huh, I don't remember his involvement at all, which just goes to prove the point about the irrelevance of the VP pick.

I think you're sort of stepping on your own words with that. Paul Ryan was a nobody, and now he's effectively the leader of the our congress and third in line for the presidency were something to happen. The VP picks are very important, as you're sort of bringing the spotlight on somebody.

Look at Sarah Palin. She become some figurehead. Not the kind of person I want to see as a voice of authority.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

I think you're sort of stepping on your own words with that. Paul Ryan was a nobody, and now he's effectively the leader of the our congress and third in line for the presidency were something to happen. The VP picks are very important, as you're sort of bringing the spotlight on somebody.

Look at Sarah Palin. She become some figurehead. Not the kind of person I want to see as a voice of authority.

I only meant irrelevance in the wider consciousness at the time. As Hewson says, it's only a bad pick that really stands out - though I'd disagree that a good pick neither helps nor hurts. It can be useful in mobilising specific ideological/geographical sections of the base, even if it doesn't directly sway any meaningful amount of undecideds.

But as you say it's obviously very significant for the trajectory of the VP candidate's career and, if they don't fuck up, cementing their status within the party and its core supporters.

[martha]

Originally Posted by BEAL

(not that it wasn't, but some of us still hold onto that anxiety of Trump actually winning).

This is me. That's why I don't visit this thread for days at a time, or check the news apps for days at a time. I can't take the anxiety.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Axver

I only meant irrelevance in the wider consciousness at the time. As Hewson says, it's only a bad pick that really stands out - though I'd disagree that a good pick neither helps nor hurts. It can be useful in mobilising specific ideological/geographical sections of the base, even if it doesn't directly sway any meaningful amount of undecideds.



But as you say it's obviously very significant for the trajectory of the VP candidate's career and, if they don't fuck up, cementing their status within the party and its core supporters.

I suppose the only thing I'd agree with about a VP pick neither helping nor hurting you is what is a "safe" pick. Kaine/Ryan/Biden were all safe picks. It's the wildcard picks like Palin/Pence/Lieberman who are used to compensate. Palin of course was an attempt to diversify the ticket. Pence to draw the party base back. Lieberman to draw the "moral conservative America" away from the Lewinsky scandal from the Bush-Gore administration.

Typically those compensatory picks hurt more than they help, but you also usually see them on the less favored of sides, I think.

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by martha

This is me. That's why I don't visit this thread for days at a time, or check the news apps for days at a time. I can't take the anxiety.

What do you have to be anxious about, Trumps chances of winning are akin to Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson in his prime, or George Mason making the final four or Leicester City winning the Premier League.

[martha]

Originally Posted by Hewson

What do you have to be anxious about, Trumps chances of winning are akin to Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson in his prime, or George Mason making the final four or Leicester City winning the Premier League.

See, I don't understand any of these analogies, so I don't know if I should be worried or not.

[Hewson]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euZ08eWV4ME

[martha]

Not sure that made me feel better.


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[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by martha

Not sure that made me feel better.


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Leicester City: 5000 to 1 odds of winning the premier league. They indeed won.

[DaveC]

on the bright side, if for some reason trump does end up turning this around in a month, you're about to witness the probably most dramatic and volatile swing in american political history.



but really, there's nothing to worry about because trump has come to realize that even though he wants to win for the sake of his ego, he doesn't want the job and can't do the job, so he's obviously in full tank mode now.

[BigMacPhisto]

I don't believe in a tank mode whatsoever. Did he enter this trying to win it? No, it was a stupid publicity stunt and the plan was that he would pull out in time to film a new Apprentice season with the extra hype.

But then once it became clear that he could win the nomination, he's been all in. The missteps and egregious statements are just Trump being Trump. I don't see any difference between his actions now or 18 months ago.




Another interesting piece:

Clinton Gaining Among Millennials, But Obstacles Remain | RealClearPolitics

"In Florida, the problem is perhaps most pronounced. Trump led narrowly in the RCP average for much of September, but Clinton has regained a 2.9 percentage point lead, according to the current average. But the race there has remained relatively tight throughout the campaign, and the state is another critical part of Trump’s narrow Electoral College path.

In a Mason-Dixon poll of the state in late August, Clinton led by 45 percent-29 percent among voters under 35, with 14 percent supporting Johnson, the libertarian. In late September, after the first debate, 49 percent supported Clinton while 32 percent backed Trump and 13 percent favored Johnson. Those numbers might not be enough for Clinton, however.

The reason: Obama narrowly defeated Romney by 75,000 votes in the state in 2012, but Baumann said just 5 percent of the likely millennial voting population there amounts to approximately 95,000 votes.

“The difference between Hillary Clinton getting 50 versus 55 percent of millennials in Florida could very easily be the difference between winning and losing,” Baumann said."

[martha]

And now I'm back on a break from this thread.


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[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by digitize

This would fit with a bigger realignment in general of politics along the lines of open vs. closed to the world. If the GOP keeps harping on protectionist themes along with immigration, this'll be more likely. Of course, the DNC is acting fairly protectionist at the moment too, but at least open on immigration, and it wouldn't shock me to see the GOP become the more clearly-protectionist party.

yes, definitely. good analysis. and it is in step with global trends (i.e., Brexit).

this would essentially mean that the Romney-type crowd would become Democrats, and the Reagan Democrats now fully Republican. it's almost a total reversal of where we were in 1980. it's interesting that minority voters are more inclined to stay with the "open" crowd, because their education tells them to be inclusive of difference and sensitive to minority issues, even if the policies that may be adopted by this "open" party in the future might actually be to their detriment, sort of like the religious right and the pre-Trump GOP.

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by martha

And now I'm back on a break from this thread.


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[corianderstem]

Well, now THAT song is in my head.

You fucker.

[deep]

.

[corianderstem]

I'm going to create a deep jar and make you put in two dollars whenever you post something particularly deep-y.

[deep]

When I get 50 I can go see the corner lady.

[corianderstem]

Why wait? Lance's mom charges half that.