2016 US Presidential Election Thread - VIII

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Does anyone seriously think he has any chance? I mean this as a serious question. Under what scenarios could he get to 270 EV? Barring a national catastrophe like a terrorist attack with mass death that could drive voters into the arms of an authoritarian, what states could he flip? I guess one answer would be New York, but does that seem possible?
 
I think it would take a terrorist attack to give Trump a legit chance.

If he was going against Bernie, I really don't know.

If Trump starts cooling his racist, sexist, any other crap.....he might do a lil better but won't flip Florida or Ohio


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Irvine511 said:
Does anyone seriously think he has any chance? I mean this as a serious question. Under what scenarios could he get to 270 EV? Barring a national catastrophe like a terrorist attack with mass death that could drive voters into the arms of an authoritarian, what states could he flip? I guess one answer would be New York, but does that seem possible?
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Are you sure he can not get FL?
 
People like Clinton in Florida. She doesn't face any issue here. It's getting bluer and bluer, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. There's a real north/south divide, but south and central Florida have booming populations of transplant residents and Floridian echo boomers of said transplants. Despite being a swing state, the numbers are a little more telling.

Back in 2000, I'm pretty sure Orange County was 60/40 Bush. It moved to a close 50/50 Obama in 2008, and then a 60/40 Obama in 2012. I'm not 100% on these numbers, but the point is that even though the results might seem close, the trend is large urban population growth (which equates to progressivism). I really don't see competition here.
 
yeah, I know you are the Rubio guy in Florida :sexywink:

but I think you are wrong, everybody has been underestimating Trump this whole time, nobody thought he would do as well as he did in most of the primaries he has been winning, they call him the biggest story this election cycle, the real story is how lousy Hillary is doing, a third rate senator like Sanders giving her a race shows what a weaken candidate she is, she is a joke. She was really something in 2008, amazing what she has become, it would be sad, if she did not deserve it.
 
I would not be surprised if a true lame-duck (post election) Obama gives Hillary a blanket pardon, like Ford gave Nixon.
 
deep said:
yeah, I know you are the Rubio guy in Florida :sexywink:



but I think you are wrong, everybody has been underestimating Trump this whole time, nobody thought he would do as well as he did in most of the primaries he has been winning, they call him the biggest story this election cycle, the real story is how lousy Hillary is doing, a third rate senator like Sanders giving her a race shows what a weaken candidate she is, she is a joke. She was really something in 2008, amazing what she has become, it would be sad, if she did not deserve it.
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I think people underestimated his ability to be the front runner.

There's nothing out of the ordinary about someone being a front runner. Just because he can win his draconic party's primaries doesn't mean he's suddenly going to start undoing states and their voting tendencies.

Nobody gives a shit if Donald Trump is a big story. When you put him up square against the opposite side, especially in Florida, he's going to lose. Sanders didn't give Clinton a run for her money in Florida. She has the backing of the Hispanic community here.

And, I mean, we can all read the narrative and pretend like Clinton is not performing well. But, every time she's been put on the spot, she's performed. Every time Sanders had the opportunity to make Hillary sweat, she shellacked him. Ohio. Florida. Illinois. New York. This race has routinely come close to being close, but never has been truly close. She had to let it be close. Destroying her competition meant alienating her base.

We get it. You're a Trump guy. But there's zero measure as to why Trump would win Florida. Just as there's zero measure as to why he'd win New York. It's a narrative and that's it. Zero reasons to believe he is going to flip either of those states. Certainly a total freaking joke to think he stands a chance in New York.
 
I tell you that Trump rally I attended at the same venue I attended one for Bill Clinton in 1992 was an eye opener. There were 'Gays for Trump' signs along with the Latinos and Blacks for Trumps signs. No it did not look like a DNC convention, but it was not a tea-party crowd either. I think his appeal is much broader than social media would lead one to believe. I find him to the most gay friendly and black friendly GOP candidate of the lot, including Kasich and Bush. Also, if one can get past the desire to have secure boarders, which is not racist but logical he is good for Latino Americans that want better paying jobs. I believe he can get a better portion of the black vote than Romney or McCain because many blacks are are on the losing end of illegal immigration. Not sure he will win on Nov, but I think a surging Trump vs a weakened Hillary is a good race.
 
deep said:
I tell you that Trump rally I attended at the same venue I attended one for Bill Clinton in 1992 was an eye opener. There were 'Gays for Trump' signs along with the Latinos and Blacks for Trumps signs. No it did not look like a DNC convention, but it was not a tea-party crowd either. I think his appeal is much broader than social media would lead one to believe. I find him to the most gay friendly and black friendly GOP candidate of the lot, including Kasich and Bush. Also, if one can get past the desire to have secure boarders, which is not racist but logical he is good for Latino Americans that want better paying jobs. I believe he can get a better portion of the black vote than Romney or McCain because many blacks are are on the losing end of illegal immigration. Not sure he will win on Nov, but I think a surging Trump vs a weakened Hillary is a good race.
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Well, just throwing this out there: his "gay friendliness" doesn't get him anywhere. Just like it doesn't get Kasich anywhere. While that allows some of the LGBT community to vote for them, individuals in the LGBT community tend to expect a champion these days. So, nobody gives a shit if they're "gay friendly." It doesn't get them anything. The only thing that does is stop them from being alienated by 50% of the country for having ass backwards views. For every 1 "gays for Trump" sign you saw, there's probably a couple hundred thousand gay people who absolutely will not vote for Donald Trump.

Need I remind you, dumb people come in all shapes, sizes, genders, ethnicities, political beliefs, etc. Just because someone is gay doesn't guarantee they fail to be either stupid or a hypocrite. You saw an idiot holding a sign. That's not indicative of the gay community rallying behind Trump. It's some guy holding a fucking sign.

I have zero idea what you're talking about with blacks being on the losing end of illegal immigration. They've probably been legal longer than your family has.

Also, I have no idea what you're talking about with Latinos. The damage was done a long time ago. Those communities don't see Trump's rhetoric as about better jobs. They see him as a racist. The numbers don't lie. Women and Latinos, nationally, heavily disfavor Trump, for his rhetoric. They're not going to forget.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
We get it. You're a Trump guy. But there's zero measure as to why Trump would win Florida. Just as there's zero measure as to why he'd win New York. It's a narrative and that's it. Zero reasons to believe he is going to flip either of those states. Certainly a total freaking joke to think he stands a chance in New York.
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I always want the best candidate in each party to get the nomination

so Hillary, of course

the GOP this time has been a bit of a dilemma, Cruz is about the worst, I tend to be risk averse. Trump is a wild card, a disrupter, as Sanders would be if he got elected. But as I took the time to listen to each of Trumps points, I can do not find any of them to be unreasonable.

Anyone that does not believe the system is totally corrupt and the working stiffs are getting sold out by both sides is not paying attention or is part of the system that wants to live off of others hard work.
 
deep said:
I always want the best candidate in each party to get the nomination



so Hillary, of course



the GOP this time has been a bit of a dilemma, Cruz is about the worst, I tend to be risk averse. Trump is a wild card, a disrupter, as Sanders would be if he got elected. But as I took the time to listen to each of Trumps points, I can do not find any of them to be unreasonable.



Anyone that does not believe the system is totally corrupt and the working stiffs are getting sold out by both sides is not paying attention or is part of the system that wants to live off of others hard work.
Click to expand...


You think a Sanders election is a problem, but you like Trump's corruption rhetoric? Sanders' entire campaign is based upon that corruption rhetoric.

The only difference between those two candidates on that issue is that Sanders has ideas and understands the actual system. Trump just fires out pandering garbage and makes things up as he goes along. A Sanders election is not a problem. It's a Sanders nomination that's a problem (as others have suggested, he's vulnerable/unpredictable). Why do you think Trump is utilizing the "corruption" accusations in his campaign? Because he's a really good guy who cares about the people? Give me a break. He's narcissistic. Like, clinically diagnosable. Narcissistic personality disorder. He's really happy to tell you about how he's so much better than everyone else.

Big note: any piece of racist trash that comes out of Trump's mouth, he believes. Anything that Trump says, even when he changes his views, he believes. That's a textbook case of a narcissist. He believes it solely on the ground that he said it. And if he said it, it must be true. One could argue that this is a major strength and a major flaw at the same time. It makes him infallible to criticism (you can't question him on his core beliefs, because he is his own core belief). However, when it comes down to it, he's going to be eaten alive from the likes of a Vladimir Putin. Play to Trump's ego and court him as a genius and a strong leader, and Putin will reap the benefits.

Kasich is probably the best current candidate for the GOP. Yes, Cruz is the worst. Trump isn't far behind.
 
Irvine511 said:
Does anyone seriously think he has any chance? I mean this as a serious question. ?
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Considering how difficult it has been for Hillary to put away Bernie, Trump would have a chance. She's a very unlikeable candidate, and once he starts attacking her anything is possible.
 
deep said:
I think his appeal is much broader than social media would lead one to believe. I find him to the most gay friendly and black friendly GOP candidate of the lot, including Kasich and Bush.
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Right, it's social media's fault.

Sure. But which version of Trump?

deep said:
Also, if one can get past the desire to have secure boarders, which is not racist but logical he is good for Latino Americans that want better paying jobs.
Click to expand...


Well no one said that is racist, but we all know you're smarter than that.


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Hewson said:
Considering how difficult it has been for Hillary to put away Bernie, Trump would have a chance. She's a very unlikeable candidate, and once he starts attacking her anything is possible.
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It hasn't been difficult for Hillary to put away Bernie. I'm more or less a Bernie guy but I can admit this. She dominated him in the south, she dominated him in Ohio, in Florida, in New York, in nearly every delegate-heavy state she had to win. He won a string of states, more caucuses than primaries, which gave him momentum in the media but not really enough delegates to really close in on her.

She has had a fairly commanding pledged delegate lead since early on with all those SEC states.

Nearly all of the superdelegates have been in her corner.

The overwhelming majority of elected Democratic officials who have endorsed during the primary have endorsed Hillary.

Bernie has filled big venues with tens of thousands, he has a dedicated following, his movement is real and is one I believe in, but let's be real, he's never been able to get close enough to truly threaten Hillary. Only close enough to be a thorn in her side.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Did we really underestimate Trump?

Or was the GOP so inept that they let Trump steal the nomination without ever moving his needle above 40% by having too many bumbling idiots in the clown car?
Click to expand...



This is what I've been wondering as well.

He certainly understands how media works.

But Ted fucking Cruz is in 2nd place. Everyone hates him. The former speaker called him Lucifer and a miserable sumabitch.

I blame people who vote GOP and who have consumed a steady diet of distortions and lies from Fox News and other outlets of right wing media. There's also a very real problem in rural white America. There are people who have been left behind by modernity -- the death rate for white women of a certain income is rising. Small town America is in tatters. We may be seeing the rise of white identity politics. It doesn't come from nowhere.

Trump is a product of all these things.

I do think Hillary will crush him. I really do. Because he hates powerful women. He likes smart women who work for him, but his misogyny and disdain for some broad in a pantsuit -- which will be amplified during the debates -- will likely render him so unpalatable to women voters that he's DOA. He's already alienated Latinos. Who else has he got other than straight white men with chips on their shoulders?

I hope.
 
Irvine511 said:
This is what I've been wondering as well.

He certainly understands how media works.

But Ted fucking Cruz is in 2nd place. Everyone hates him. The former speaker called him Lucifer and a miserable sumabitch.

I blame people who vote GOP and who have consumed a steady diet of distortions and lies from Fox News and other outlets of right wing media. There's also a very real problem in rural white America. There are people who have been left behind by modernity -- the death rate for white women of a certain income is rising. Small town America is in tatters. We may be seeing the rise of white identity politics. It doesn't come from nowhere.

Trump is a product of all these things.

I do think Hillary will crush him. I really do. Because he hates powerful women. He likes smart women who work for him, but his misogyny and disdain for some broad in a pantsuit -- which will be amplified during the debates -- will likely render him so unpalatable to women voters that he's DOA. He's already alienated Latinos. Who else has he got other than straight white men with chips on their shoulders?

I hope.
Click to expand...

At one point I was worried about Trump actually winning the general, because I feared that the democrats wouldn't show up because they weren't energized enough. Then I feared Trump might win if the Dems were somehow stupid enough to nominate Sanders. Now that the base seems to have been fired up and Hillary is the presumed candidate, it's back to basic math. Trump's numbers don't add up.

Even in the event of a terrorist attack, Trump's isolationist foreign policy won't help him, whereas Clinton is fairly hawkish for a Democrat.

In a Trump/Clinton matchup the only way Hillary loses is if somehow she gets indicted.
 
deep said:
But as I took the time to listen to each of Trumps points, I can do not find any of them to be unreasonable.
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This says a lot about you, and why some of us consider you a troll, or little better than one.

e.g. Most people would consider demanding a foreign country, whose people have been depicted as rapists, to pay for a wall that is impractical from an engineering sense and outrageous from a diplomatic or moral one, to not be a reasonable point.

Hewson said:
Considering how difficult it has been for Hillary to put away Bernie, Trump would have a chance. She's a very unlikeable candidate, and once he starts attacking her anything is possible.
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I'm with the others who don't think Hillary has had that hard a time putting away Sanders. Yes, he's challenged her, and that has been beneficial for the Democrats. But in most of the states where, in the leadup, Sanders was considered likely to nab a previously unexpected victory, Hillary worked the game very well and won - by good margins. I would anticipate she could do the same if Trump looked like a real threat in swing states. She may be unlikeable, but her people know how to win.

Headache in a Suitcase said:
Did we really underestimate Trump?

Or was the GOP so inept that they let Trump steal the nomination without ever moving his needle above 40% by having too many bumbling idiots in the clown car?
Click to expand...

This is the thing isn't it? He can't even get a majority of the diehard base who actually participate in primaries, despite most of his opponents being either a). also morons and/or b). completely lacking in name recognition. How is he meant to translate this more widely? The Republicans are killing themselves by pandering to a base that is increasingly out of touch. It's a product of the perils of gerrymandering too well: instead of competing for a moderate candidate who can win the centre away from the rival party, you create competitions to prove who is the One True Republican and that spawns extremism. It's now flowed from Congressional districts to nominating a candidate.
 
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